Play GM with imaginary budget

[bravesfanMatt]

Curious to see how some would handle being GM if Liberty came to you and said

2018 budget is 130 million
2019 budget is 140 million and will remain there for the next 2 more years.

Any savings can be applied to the following years budget.

[Enscheff]

$130M in 2018 is crazy talk.

[Knucksie]

Isn't that exactly what several posters do here all the time? The place is loaded with fantasy league team owners, who think they're MLB GM's. They also always know the budget thresholds in advance.

[bravesfanMatt]

Isn't that exactly what several posters do here all the time? The place is loaded with fantasy league team owners, who think they're MLB GM's. They also always know the budget thresholds in advance.

More curious if folks would even try to spend the whole budget this season or save in a non contending season and go bigger in a better FA class.

[Knucksie]

More curious if folks would even try to spend the whole budget this season or save in a non contending season and go bigger in a better FA class.

Consider the fact that contention is not strictly related to budget. Too many posts of the "not until 2023" variety. Nobody here knows exactly when they'll take it to the next level. Last time they won the division with Fredi never here expected it.

[Hudson2]

I’d probably sign a couple of good bullpen arms this offseason and try to eat 75% of Kemp’s deal to get him gone. Hold the rest to make a splash next offseason like Donaldson.

[Enscheff]

I’d probably sign a couple of good bullpen arms this offseason and try to eat 75% of Kemp’s deal to get him gone. Hold the rest to make a splash next offseason like Donaldson.

With AA as the GM I would say Donaldson is the #1 most likely impact FA the Braves might sign. The starting point on the bidding will be whatever JD Martinez gets this off season.

[nsacpi]

With AA as the GM I would say Donaldson is the #1 most likely impact FA the Braves might sign. The starting point on the bidding will be whatever JD Martinez gets this off season.

Donaldson will be hitting free agency after his age 32 season. Martinez just finished his age 29 season.

[Enscheff]

Donaldson will be hitting free agency after his age 32 season. Martinez just finished his age 29 season.

And I bet he still gets $150M+ because he is about 2x as good overall.

Something like 5-6 years for $150M-$160M that covers his age 33-37 or 38 seasons with plans to move him to 1B in 2022 after Freeman's contract expires would be the most likely plan of action.

The FA contracts handed out next off season are going to make fans crap their pants. Every single large market team has been preparing their budgets for next off season. If the Braves want to play with the big boys they will have to step it up a notch...or 5 notches.

[clvclv]

The Johnson trade puts us at ~$91,500,000 with MLBTR's projected arbitration figures. Remove Adams and you're at $86,900,000 - $43,100,000 to spend if you're maxing out this year.

[nsacpi]

The Johnson trade puts us at ~$91,500,000 with MLBTR's projected arbitration figures. Remove Adams and you're at $86,900,000 - $43,100,000 to spend if you're maxing out this year.

in theory we could sign one of pricier free agents....i think it would be a mistake...i would spread whatever funds we have three ways...upgrade third, the rotation and the pen

[Chico]

in theory we could sign one of pricier free agents....i think it would be a mistake...i would spread whatever funds we have three ways...upgrade third, the rotation and the pen

You could make an argument that it would be better to sign a big name FA this year rather than wait until next year.

I think the AAV is going to go way up after Machado and Bryce sign mega deals and set the market.

There is no starting pitching in next year's market. Kershaw will more than likely sign an extension. Corbin would be the next best option.

Donaldson would be nice, but at 33 in an offseason where people are going to overpay it seems like a bad idea. He's not a Frazier who is going to settle for a 3 year deal. He's going to get paid. The other 2 players that would fit us (as our team is constructed now) are Pollock and Blackmon. Blackmon is from ATL, but he'll be 32 and his home/road splts are obvious. Pollock is a player I would love to have, but he's starting to get the injury prone tag and there's no guarantee AZ doesn't extend him if he does have a full season of his projected production.

You do have the 3 big name relievers in Kimbrel, Allen, and Britton, but that sounds like a bad idea as well.

If we're set to lose our 3rd pick it might make more sense to sign a FA who costs us a pcik this year since it'll cost us our 4th by not having a 3rd.

I'm not advocating it, just saying one could make a valid argument if they chose to.

[nsacpi]

I don't think we should EVER sign a high priced free agent...it is an iron law for good front office management when payroll is in the bottom half

[Chico]

I don't think we should EVER sign a high priced free agent...it is an iron law for good front office management when payroll is in the bottom half

If you plan on having a number of pre-arb guys for a 3-4 year stretch I think it's fine. It has to be the right guy though. Going by AA's tenure in Toronoto I forsee us taking on money in trades as opposed to signing free agents.

[clvclv]

in theory we could sign one of pricier free agents....i think it would be a mistake...i would spread whatever funds we have three ways...upgrade third, the rotation and the pen

Since I always love these...

1.) Trade Soroka, Allard, and Riley for Chris Archer. ($6,250,000 spent.)
2.) Trade Fried, Pache, and Wentz for Adam Duvall. ($1,250,000 spent.)
3.) Sign Todd Frazier - 3 years/$36 million. ($12 million spent.)
4.) Sign Addison Reed - 3 years/$30 million. ($10 million spent.)
5.) Sign Jake McGee - 3 years/$21 million. ($7 million spent.)
6.) Keep Danny Santana as the 25th man in Adams' place - 1 year/$1.1 million. ($1,100,000 spent.)
7.) Offer Albies an Altuve-like deal - 5 years/$25.5 million with 2 team options with $1 million buyouts. ($3 million spent including signing bonus.)
8.) Offer Folty a Julio-like deal to buy out his first free-agent season - 4 years/29.6 million with an option with a $1 million buyout. ($600,000 spent - already projected to make $2,700,000 this year.)


Rotation - Archer, Gohara, Julio, Newcomb, Folty ($18,700,000 in 2018)

Pen - Reed, McGee, Vizcaino, Minter, Ramirez, Freeman, Winkler, Ravin (24,415,000 in 2018)

Lineup - Ender, Albies, Freeman, Frazier, Markakis, Duvall, Flowers, Swanson ($58,370,000 in 2018)

Bench - Suzuki, Camargo, Adams, Santana ($8,200,000 in 2018)


Total Salaries - $109,135,000


Trade Kemp and $21,865,000 to anyone for anything.


TOTAL SPENT - $130,000,000.

[JohnAdcox]

$130M in 2018 is crazy talk.

Curious ... what does "imaginary" mean to you?

[GeorgiaGirl]

Since the Braves missed the revenue goal badly, the budget will be restricted by Liberty Media this year. I see it going back down to 110 million, thus, why we've seen a lot of trades to get the budget down.
~Enscheff

[thethe]

in theory we could sign one of pricier free agents....i think it would be a mistake...i would spread whatever funds we have three ways...upgrade third, the rotation and the pen

I'd rather make the pen the strength of the team and let Camargo play at third. With his defense alone we are going to get an average third baseman.

When your starting rotation is going to be billed with kids that aren't likely to consistently go 6 innings then you better have a great pen if you want to win games. I'd sign 2 guys to a 3 year deal at a AAV of 8-12 million. I still believe if they become superfluous in a year or two you can still trade them for good value.

I like the idea of Minor/Morrow now but you can convince me to exchange one of those with Addison Reed.

No upgrades in the starting rotation. Absolutely have to find out if Fried is a major league starter this season. Leave third base alone. Think about locking up Albies/Acuna NOW.

[bravesfanMatt]

I'd rather make the pen the strength of the team and let Camargo play at third. With his defense alone we are going to get an average third baseman.

When your starting rotation is going to be billed with kids that aren't likely to consistently go 6 innings then you better have a great pen if you want to win games. I'd sign 2 guys to a 3 year deal at a AAV of 8-12 million. I still believe if they become superfluous in a year or two you can still trade them for good value.

I like the idea of Minor/Morrow now but you can convince me to exchange one of those with Addison Reed.

No upgrades in the starting rotation. Absolutely have to find out if Fried is a major league starter this season. Leave third base alone. Think about locking up Albies/Acuna NOW.

If camargo is our 3B then why did we non tender both jace and Danny. We have to go sign a utility guy now too if Jo-gun is a starter.

[50PoundHead]

If camargo is our 3B then why did we non tender both jace and Danny. We have to go sign a utility guy now too if Jo-gun is a starter.

It's relatively easy to find utility guys. I always had hopes for Jace Peterson (although I'm not one of those who thought he was the next Dustin Pedroia) and after his season as a regular, I thought he might develop into a decent short-term regular. Alas, not the case. I watched some of Santana up here in Minnesota and he's not the same player he was as a rookie when he did very well. He looks to have put on a fair amount of weight.

My guess is they either sign a 3B (of which I would be skeptical) or get a better utility guy than either Peterson or Santana. Because Camargo can back up at either 2B or SS, it could be a "bat first" guy and not someone who needs to back up at SS. Decent back-up SSs are pretty difficult to find. I still can't figure out why Adonis Garcia is still on the roster.

[thethe]

If camargo is our 3B then why did we non tender both jace and Danny. We have to go sign a utility guy now too if Jo-gun is a starter.

You could acquire Prado as part of a deal to get one the marlins outfielders. 50 pointed it out. Getting a utility guy should not be a difficult task.

[Hudson2]

I don’t think AA is clearing payroll bc he has to. I think he’s doing it to make a bigger move for either the OF or 3b.

[thethe]

I don’t think AA is clearing payroll bc he has to. I think he’s doing it to make a bigger move for either the OF or 3b.

A Prado & Yelich or Ozuna deal handles both items with Prado providing support for Camargo if he falters as well as being a backup 1b/2b/3b and when Swanson needs some time you just shift Camargo to ss and Prado to 3b

[Hudson2]

A Prado & Yelich or Ozuna deal handles both items with Prado providing support for Camargo if he falters as well as being a backup 1b/2b/3b and when Swanson needs some time you just shift Camargo to ss and Prado to 3b

That’s what i was thinking. I know that Yelich would cost more but he’s signed a lot longer too. Prado and Yelich i would definitely be in for. Anybody but Gohara, Acuna, Albies, Swanson, or Wright and I’m good with it.

[thethe]

That’s what i was thinking. I know that Yelich would cost more but he’s signed a lot longer too. Prado and Yelich i would definitely be in for. Anybody but Gohara, Acuna, Albies, Swanson, or Wright and I’m good with it.

I think we can put together a package excluding those guys that approach the surplus value of a yelich/Prado package.

[clvclv]

It's relatively easy to find utility guys. I always had hopes for Jace Peterson (although I'm not one of those who thought he was the next Dustin Pedroia) and after his season as a regular, I thought he might develop into a decent short-term regular. Alas, not the case. I watched some of Santana up here in Minnesota and he's not the same player he was as a rookie when he did very well. He looks to have put on a fair amount of weight.

My guess is they either sign a 3B (of which I would be skeptical) or get a better utility guy than either Peterson or Santana. Because Camargo can back up at either 2B or SS, it could be a "bat first" guy and not someone who needs to back up at SS. Decent back-up SSs are pretty difficult to find. I still can't figure out why Adonis Garcia is still on the roster.

Now that the Jays picked up Aldemys Diaz, I wonder if Zack Cozart's camp is explaining to him that he's likely going to have to move off SS? MLBTR projected him to sign with San Diego, but does anyone really see them spending that kind of money just yet?

He's not really a perfect fit (and it would obviously be way out there), but he could arguably slot in at 3B for now and give you the option to include Swanson in a trade if someone else is really sold on him. He'd make the infield entirely interchangeable with the ability to play him, Camargo, or Dansby at 2B/3B/SS and Ozzie at 2B/SS. If Riley proves himself and you trade Swanson then you move Cozart back to his preferred spot - and you wouldn't be blocking Riley.

As for Adonis, you just have to figure the only reason he's still here is that he has 1 option remaining - if you don't sign another 3B and a Rio and Camargo platoon flames out over there, keeping Garcia around keeps you from rushing Riley more.

[bravesfanMatt]

Utility infielders are a dime a dozen. But how much better are they of those available. Typically you are a utility because you are either young and waiting on a position to open (not available) or not good enough to start. We just cut two of those.

[nsacpi]

Strengthening the left side of the infield is a high priority. Swanson and Camargo might be the solution, but I think it would be very risky to proceed on that assumption. I wouldn't go after a high-priced option like Moustakas. But I would go after someone who can be part of a three-man rotation manning short and third. Options include: Prado, Nunez, Solarte, Cozart, Frazier and Yandy Diaz. I'd be willing to go 3 years on Cozart, Frazier and Nunez. If it takes a longer term deal with those three I'd pass.

[Enscheff]

I think we can put together a package excluding those guys that approach the surplus value of a yelich/Prado package.

Really? What do you think the surplus value of a Yelich/Prado package is?

What group of players from the Braves approximates that value?

[Enscheff]

I'd rather make the pen the strength of the team and let Camargo play at third. With his defense alone we are going to get an average third baseman.

When your starting rotation is going to be billed with kids that aren't likely to consistently go 6 innings then you better have a great pen if you want to win games. I'd sign 2 guys to a 3 year deal at a AAV of 8-12 million. I still believe if they become superfluous in a year or two you can still trade them for good value.

I like the idea of Minor/Morrow now but you can convince me to exchange one of those with Addison Reed.

No upgrades in the starting rotation. Absolutely have to find out if Fried is a major league starter this season. Leave third base alone. Think about locking up Albies/Acuna NOW.

You do realize that if the Braves win the bidding for a FA BP arm that means the Braves paid absolute top dollar nobody else was willing to pay, right? How exactly would a player have surplus value a year later in such a scenario?

[bravesfanMatt]

Strengthening the left side of the infield is a high priority. Swanson and Camargo might be the solution, but I think it would be very risky to proceed on that assumption. I wouldn't go after a high-priced option like Moustakas. But I would go after someone who can be part of a three-man rotation manning short and third. Options include: Prado, Nunez, Solarte, Cozart, Frazier and Yandy Diaz. I'd be willing to go 3 years on Cozart, Frazier and Nunez. If it takes a longer term deal with those three I'd pass.

I think this is more what I am saying. I feel cutting jace and Danny says that AA is thinking of another option for 3B

[Enscheff]

I think this is more what I am saying. I feel cutting jace and Danny says that AA is thinking of another option for 3B

He almost has to be.

Unless....

Unless we are about to see a $100M payroll while the Braves “see what they have” with the Camargo/Ruiz/Adonis trio.

[bravesfanMatt]

He almost has to be.

Unless....

Unless we are about to see a $100M payroll while the Braves “see what they have” with the Camargo/Ruiz/Adonis trio.

Shh. Just channel your inner thethe

[Enscheff]

Shh. Just channel your inner thethe

Absolute worst case scenario they have about $12M to spend in 2018. I can’t imagine they will be forced to lower payroll below $100M. If they stay cheap in the rotation and BP, they can afford to add Frazier at 3B. A Mous signing wouldn’t surprise me, but I would be mildly against it.

They had to have been clearing payroll as a precursor to making a moderately sized addition, and the most glaring hole on the roster is 3b (assuming they let Markakis play out his contract in LF).

I’m still holding out hope for an Ozuna/Prado package.

[Southcack77]

Have the Marlins confirmed a full tear down?

I don’t understand the purpose of selling their good and cheap assets otherwise.

They can probably move Stanton and Prada and get close to the 85-90 range That is supposed to be their goal.

[Oklahomabrave]

Absolute worst case scenario they have about $12M to spend in 2018. I can’t imagine they will be forced to lower payroll below $100M. If they stay cheap in the rotation and BP, they can afford to add Frazier at 3B. A Mous signing wouldn’t surprise me, but I would be mildly against it.

They had to have been clearing payroll as a precursor to making a moderately sized addition, and the most glaring hole on the roster is 3b (assuming they let Markakis play out his contract in LF).

I’m still holding out hope for an Ozuna/Prado package.

I wouldn’t assume either Markakis or Kemp are on the team. AA might be on board with them being sunk costs. Maybe save 3-5 per year trading Kemp and save 7-8 mil for Markakis

[Enscheff]

Have the Marlin confirmed a full year down?

Cause I guess I don’t understand the purpose of selling their good and cheap assets otherwise.

They can probably move Stanton and Prada and get close to the 85-90 range I’ve seen.

You won’t believe anything until it actually happens, but Stanton, Prado and Gordon are as good as gone. We are able to logically deduce that from the information at hand (just like we knew MAdams had no trade value and would be non-tendered).

The Marlins will be eating some of Stanton’s and Prado’s contracts, so they won’t be saving the full value in a trade.

The fact Panik is being discussed with the Giants means Gordon is gone, but luckily his entire contract could likely be traded for little return.

The inclusion of Ozuna is pure speculation because he has positive value and could be used to offset the negative value of guys like Prado and Tazawa, especially if the Marlins get a couple cheap OFers from the Cards for Stanton.

I realize you’re just being contrarian rather than contributing an actual opinion, but that’s how we “know” what we know about the Marlins. All it requires is a basic understanding of player valuation, and then applying a bit of logic to the known data.

[Enscheff]

I wouldn’t assume either Markakis or Kemp are on the team. AA might be on board with them being sunk costs. Maybe save 3-5 per year trading Kemp and save 7-8 mil for Markakis

Oh I totally agree that’s possible. The issue is how do they find a new LFer? I’ve laid out a few ideas, but the cheapest route would be to allow Markakis to produce 1 win for $11M in LF.

It’s entirely possible the Braves only have cash to improve one position, and the preponderance of evidence (dumping all utility guys but Camargo, stocking the BP with scrap heap arms, 6 viable SP options on hand) points to that acquisition being at 3b.

[Southcack77]

You won’t believe anything until it actually happens, but Stanton, Prado and Gordon are as good as gone. We are able to logically deduce that from the information at hand (just like we knew MAdams had no trade value and would be non-tendered).

The Marlins will be eating some of Stanton’s and Prado’s contracts, so they won’t be saving the full value in a trade.

The fact Panik is being discussed with the Giants means Gordon is gone, but luckily his entire contract could likely be traded for little return.

The inclusion of Ozuna is pure speculation because he has positive value and could be used to offset the negative value of guys like Prado and Tazawa, especially if the Marlins get a couple cheap OFers from the Cards for Stanton.

I realize you’re just being contrarian rather than contributing an actual opinion, but that’s how we “know” what we know about the Marlins. All it requires is a basic understanding of player valuation, and then applying a bit of logic to the known data.

You are a weird dude.

[50PoundHead]

Strengthening the left side of the infield is a high priority. Swanson and Camargo might be the solution, but I think it would be very risky to proceed on that assumption. I wouldn't go after a high-priced option like Moustakas. But I would go after someone who can be part of a three-man rotation manning short and third. Options include: Prado, Nunez, Solarte, Cozart, Frazier and Yandy Diaz. I'd be willing to go 3 years on Cozart, Frazier and Nunez. If it takes a longer term deal with those three I'd pass.

I don't want Frazier in the least (and I see his upcoming negotiations being similar to the pursuit of Markakis three years ago in that someone will give him a 4th year and regret it). Curious to see what the market is on Cozart and Nunez.

[thethe]

I don't want Frazier in the least (and I see his upcoming negotiations being similar to the pursuit of Markakis three years ago in that someone will give him a 4th year and regret it). Curious to see what the market is on Cozart and Nunez.

I'm surprised you're interested in third base options. YOu have always been bullish on Camargo. Why are you hesitant to give him a shot?