The Great Bet Tracking Thread

[Enscheff]

A lot of bets crop up between posters, and this will be where they are tracked. Terms, results, and payment will be recorded here.

Participants: Enscheff (nscheffel) and Ivan the Great from TalkingChop
Bet Terms: Ozuna's total fWAR over the next 2 years. 6.8 or more nscheffel wins, 6.3 - 6.7 no one wins, 6.2 or less Ivan wins.
Stakes: $118 donated to the charity of the winner's choice (no political charities).
Status: ongoing

Participants: Enscheff (nscheffel) and Ivan the Great from TalkingChop
Bet Terms: Braves 2018 opening day payroll per Cot's. Over $120M Ivan wins, under $120M nscheffel wins.
Stakes: $30 donated to the charity of the winner's choice (no political charities).
Status: ongoing

[msstate7]

What’s the significance of $118? Weird bet total... did you finally sell that old lawnmower for $118?

[msstate7]

Does ozuna have to play a certain amount of games during bet period?

[Enscheff]

Does ozuna have to play a certain amount of games during bet period?

No, I'm taking the risk of injury. I don't hedge my bets to the point they are no longer bets.

Ivan picked $118 because that's what he projects Ozuna's rWC+ to be. Odd, but I let him pick the dollar amount so I can't complain haha.

[msstate7]

4.8 this year. Gotta figure barring injury, you have a great shot at winning

[Enscheff]

4.8 this year. Gotta figure barring injury, you have a great shot at winning

I fully expect regression, but not all the way down to 3 wins per year.

[Enscheff]

Participants: Enscheff and Msstate7
Bet Terms: Highest fWAR over the 2018 season between Camargo and Moustakas. Enscheff takes Moustakas, msstate7 takes Camargo.
Stakes: $25 donated to the charity of the winner's choice.
Status: ongoing

[Jaw]

Participants: Enscheff (nscheffel) and Ivan the Great from TalkingChop
Bet Terms: Braves 2018 opening day payroll per Cot's. Over $120M Ivan wins, under $120M nscheffel wins.
Stakes: $30 donated to the charity of the winner's choice (no political charities).
Status: ongoing

This one looks like a lock for you.

[bravesfanMatt]

I have one with someone on I think .850 ops for vtrout

[msstate7]

nsacpi and I have a bet on Swanson ops. I have over .750.

[Enscheff]

This one looks like a lock for you.

Yeah he’s already contacting the athletic department of my old high school to make his donation.

[msstate7]

Waaaayyy too early check in...

Ozuna 0.2 fWAR (8 games) ~ 4.1 fWAR over 162 games

Swanson .920 ops

Mike Moustakas -0.1 fWAR
Camargo 0.0 fWAR


Yes, I know this is a waste of time this early in the season. Yes, I’m bored

[Enscheff]

I don’t think negative to 0 is what we envisioned when we made that bet haha.

[msstate7]

I don’t think negative to 0 is what we envisioned when we made that bet haha.

Just gotta hope flaherty plays well so camargo doesn’t play lol

[Enscheff]

Participants: Enscheff and Msstate7
Bet Terms: Highest fWAR over the 2018 season between Camargo and Moustakas. Enscheff takes Moustakas, msstate7 takes Camargo.
Stakes: $25 donated to the charity of the winner's choice.
Status: ongoing

You've missed your chances to save a little cash and buy your way out of this bet early, but if you call 775-721-7905 by the end of next week and donate your $25 to the Proctor R. Hug High School Athletic Department, I will match your donation.

I will also match any other donation made by anyone else, just post some sort of evidence.

[msstate7]

You've missed your chances to save a little cash and buy your way out of this bet early, but if you call 775-721-7905 by the end of next week and donate your $25 to the Proctor R. Hug High School Athletic Department, I will match your donation.

I will also match any other donation made by anyone else, just post some sort of evidence.

Lol... he won't slug .600 all year. His negative defense will start catching up soon. Johan at 0.1 after 14 PA... hopefully he will get to play enough to accumulate soon defensive value

[bravesfanMatt]

Lol... he won't slug .600 all year. His negative defense will start catching up soon. Johan at 0.1 after 14 PA... hopefully he will get to play enough to accumulate soon defensive value

Hang in there. I still believe.

[msstate7]

Hang in there. I still believe.

I want to, but Camargo really pissed snit off

[msstate7]

Enscheff, why was mous pulled after only 1 AB tonight?

ETA... HBP. He scored a run, so wasn't pulled immediately

[Carp]

I want to, but Camargo really pissed snit off

Did I miss something? What happened?

[msstate7]

Mous 1.0 fWAR (136 PA)
Camargo 0.5 fWAR (30 PA)

Not over yet, enscheff

[bravesfanMatt]

Mous 1.0 fWAR (136 PA)
Camargo 0.5 fWAR (30 PA)

Not over yet, enscheff

May need to offer him a dollar savings buyout.

[Enscheff]

Mous 1.0 fWAR (136 PA)
Camargo 0.5 fWAR (30 PA)

Not over yet, enscheff

It’s over

[Carp]

Moose's value keeps dropping. Unless he hits in the .900 OPS range, I wouldn't expect him to be over 2 WAR. Carmargo will cool off, but I think he'll still be a good hitter. And he'll likely be worth at least a win defensively.

[msstate7]

Moose's value keeps dropping. Unless he hits in the .900 OPS range, I wouldn't expect him to be over 2 WAR. Carmargo will cool off, but I think he'll still be a good hitter. And he'll likely be worth at least a win defensively.

Bautista will be in the dumpster soon enough... camargo will win this easily

[Enscheff]

Bautista will be in the dumpster soon enough... camargo will win this easily

We should double the stakes

[msstate7]

Ozuna 0.1 fWAR

Ouch... you worried, enscheff?

[nsacpi]

I have one with someone on I think .850 ops for vtrout

vtrout at .835 after today's game

[bravesfanMatt]

vtrout at .835 after today's game

You should be worried. He is blowing and still right there. I have this one.

[nsacpi]

You should be worried. He is blowing and still right there. I have this one.

yeah...im more worried about this one than the Swanson bet

[nsacpi]

I have one with someone on I think .850 ops for vtrout

hmmm

[Enscheff]

Ozuna 0.1 fWAR

Ouch... you worried, enscheff?

Yes

[msstate7]

Yes

Join the club. I'm worried about both of mine

[msstate7]

Don't look now, but...

Mous 1.3 fWAR
Camargo 1.0 fWAR

[thewupk]

Don't look now, but...

Mous 1.3 fWAR
Camargo 1.0 fWAR

:icwudt:

[nsacpi]

Fake Culberson OPS .731
vtrout OPS .779

[Tapate50]

Whats Camargo's D been worth for stuff like DRS, UZR and whatever else they measure.

Albies too? Can't imagine he's still negative after last night...he made two killer plays and hasn't booted one in a while.

[msstate7]

Fake Culberson OPS .731
vtrout OPS .779

Swanson hitting into some tough luck as his BABIP is normalizing (down to .333). I think he has a chance to win this bet for me if he keeps swinging bat like lately

[nsacpi]

Swanson hitting into some tough luck as his BABIP is normalizing (down to .333). I think he has a chance to win this bet for me if he keeps swinging bat like lately

Strikeout rate is what makes it difficult for him to succeed as a hitter. I was encouraged that he went through 6 PAs last night without striking out.

[thewupk]

Strikeout rate is what makes it difficult for him to succeed as a hitter. I was encouraged that he went through 6 PAs last night without striking out.

Yup. Without great offensive tools the strikeout rate is what's going to determine how good you are offensively. For Swanson you'd want him to hover around 20% at worst.

[nsacpi]

Yup. Without great offensive tools the strikeout rate is what's going to determine how good you are offensively. For Swanson you'd want him to hover around 20% at worst.

Last year, I kept hammering on the importance for both Swanson and Camargo to bring down their strikeout rate below 20%. Camargo has checked that box. Swanson's has gone in the wrong direction.

[Southcack77]

Strikeout rate is what makes it difficult for him to succeed as a hitter. I was encouraged that he went through 6 PAs last night without striking out.

The K rate ought to come down. It was lower in what hopefully will be his worst season as a pro.

[nsacpi]

The K rate ought to come down. It was lower in what hopefully will be his worst season as a pro.

K rate is a bit of a leading indicator. The fact it is up this year is not good.

[Southcack77]

K rate is a bit of a leading indicator. The fact it is up this year is not good.

No, not good.

Not necessarily awful. It's been erratic and spiked highest surrounding his injury. Dunno.

[bravesfanMatt]

No, not good.

Not necessarily awful. It's been erratic and spiked highest surrounding his injury. Dunno.

Yeah. I wold like to move away from the wrist thing and see where it lands.

[Enscheff]

Don't look now, but...

Mous 1.3 fWAR
Camargo 1.0 fWAR

ruh roh

[msstate7]

The good...
Moose 1.5 fWAR
Camargo 1.6 fWAR

The bad...
Swanson .704 ops

[Enscheff]

The good...
Moose 1.5 fWAR
Camargo 1.6 fWAR

The bad...
Swanson .704 ops

Son of a....

[CyYoung31]

Camargo has as many home runs as Kris Bryant in like 80 less PAs.

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/facebook/000/883/283/4b4.jpg

[Enscheff]

The good...
Moose 1.5 fWAR
Camargo 1.6 fWAR

You haven’t updated this in a while...

I wonder why...

[msstate7]

You haven’t updated this in a while...

I wonder why...

I honestly haven't looked lately, but here...

Mous 1.6
Camargo 1.3

[nsacpi]

Meanwhile back at the ranch

Swanson .700 OPS (I have the under of .750)
Acuna .778 OPS (I have the under of .850)

[msstate7]

Meanwhile back at the ranch

Swanson .700 OPS (I have the under of .750)
Acuna .778 OPS (I have the under of .850)

I feel I've lost this one

[mfree80]

I feel I've lost this one

Please don't leave the board over it!!!:cooter:

[msstate7]

Please don't leave the board over it!!!:cooter:

It wasn't a ban bet. It was for $25,000, and now my son can't go to college. It's all Dansby's fault!!!!!

[nsacpi]

It wasn't a ban bet. It was for $25,000, and now my son can't go to college. It's all Dansby's fault!!!!!

he can chip in with a loan...may I suggest 75K as an appropriate amount

[Enscheff]

I feel I've lost this one

Seems like it should be a familiar feeling for you.

[Enscheff]

Please don't leave the board over it!!!:cooter:

Don’t worry, Taylor and zb have already set the board precedent of failing to man up and pay on lost bets.

[mfree80]

Don’t worry, Taylor and zb have already set the board precedent of failing to man up and pay on lost bets.

Glad they didn't let anyone chase them away.

[msstate7]

My Swanson bet is dead... I'll be happy if he can get to .725 on year.

The other bet seems to be headed to the wire...
Camargo 1.8 fWAR
Mous 1.6 fWAR

[thewupk]

It wasn't a ban bet. It was for $25,000, and now my son can't go to college. It's all Dansby's fault!!!!!

I mean if he's going to Miss St then it's probably for the best

[Tapate50]

Friend of mine that likes to crap the Braves just bet me 1k Acuna won’t be on any Braves roster on 8/2021

[msstate7]

Camargo 2.1 fWAR
Mous 2.1 fWAR

Going down to the wire. Tie breaker is fWAR per game ;)

[bravesfanMatt]

Friend of mine that likes to crap the Braves just bet me 1k Acuna won’t be on any Braves roster on 8/2021

Injury count. I don’t see anyway otherwise.

[thewupk]

Friend of mine that likes to crap the Braves just bet me 1k Acuna won’t be on any Braves roster on 8/2021

easy money

[Super]

Friend of mine that likes to crap the Braves just bet me 1k Acuna won’t be on any Braves roster on 8/2021

what kind of bet is that for him? what's his logic?

[Enscheff]

Camargo 2.1 fWAR
Mous 2.1 fWAR

Going down to the wire. Tie breaker is fWAR per game ;)

There won't be a tie. When sorted by fWAR someone will be ahead of the other by a small fraction even if they appear tied when rounded to the tenth.

[msstate7]

There won't be a tie. When sorted by fWAR someone will be ahead of the other by a small fraction even if they appear tied when rounded to the tenth.

Cool. I didn't realize you could see fWAR in the hundredths

[Enscheff]

Cool. I didn't realize you could see fWAR in the hundredths

You can't but they are sorted by actual values as precise as it's calculated.

Right now among 3b it goes:

Camargo 2.1
Anderson 2.1
Moustakas 2.1

[Tapate50]

what kind of bet is that for him? what's his logic?

His wife is friends with Poseys wife, and he tells me the Yankees almost got Buster before SF gave him the extension.

I told him that's not really how it works, and he flipped out. He doesn't understand basic things like team control for players.

[Enscheff]

His wife is friends with Poseys wife, and he tells me the Yankees almost got Buster before SF gave him the extension.

I told him that's not really how it works, and he flipped out. He doesn't understand basic things like team control for players.

He won't pay when he loses anyways. Folks rarely pay up when they lose bets. We've seen plenty of examples on this forum.

Don't accept the bet unless he agrees to both of you putting $1000 right now in escrow until 2021.

Unless Acuna dies or commits a felony, there is next to 0% chance he will not be on a roster affiliated with the Braves on that date. Just make sure the DL counts, because 60 day DL is not on the 40 man MLB roster.

In fact, see if he will extend the bet to me for any amount he's willing to put in escrow right now.

[Tapate50]

He won't pay when he loses anyways. Folks rarely pay up when they lose bets. We've seen plenty of examples on this forum.

Don't accept the bet unless he agrees to both of you putting $1000 right now in escrow until 2021.

Unless Acuna dies or commits a felony, there is next to 0% chance he will not be on a roster affiliated with the Braves on that date. Just make sure the DL counts, because 60 day DL is not on the 40 man MLB roster.

In fact, see if he will extend the bet to me for any amount he's willing to put in escrow right now.

He will pay. This isn't some anonymous internet forum. He ran his mouth in front of our entire golf group text that takes a nice trip together every year, including some of his family.

[BeanieAntics]

He will pay. This isn't some anonymous internet forum. He ran his mouth in front of our entire golf group text that takes a nice trip together every year, including some of his family.

This is one of those brilliant times where you run in to a guy who knows nothing about something, yet is so confident that he does know that he is willing to put large amounts of money on it. Those are the best people in the world to exploit lol.

I've made thousands off of guys player 1/2 NLHE at casinos that are exactly like this. They don't know the difference between the cut off and the hijack, but think they are these great geniuses of the game. Its always both comical and profitable.

[msstate7]

Bet updates:

Camargo 2.3 fWAR
Mous 1.9 fWAR

Dansby at .709 ops

Looking pretty good in 1st bet, but not so much in 2nd. At least Dansby giving me a little hope of late

[Enscheff]

Bet updates:

Camargo 2.3 fWAR
Mous 1.9 fWAR

Dansby at .709 ops

Looking pretty good in 1st bet, but not so much in 2nd. At least Dansby giving me a little hope of late

It might be time for you to start thinking of charities that need my money haha.

[bravesfanMatt]

Anyone know Acuña OPS. I am worried it might not be over .850.

[nsacpi]

Anyone know Acuña OPS. I am worried it might not be over .850.

lil hot streak that's all...he'll come back down to earth

[Enscheff]

lil hot streak that's all...he'll come back down to earth

You are alienating everyone on the board...

[msstate7]

Camargo vs mous is turning out to be a great bet. Both guys at 2.5 fWAR

[Tapate50]

Camargo vs mous is turning out to be a great bet. Both guys at 2.5 fWAR

he should have given you odds on that one.

[msstate7]

he should have given you odds on that one.

Nah, I proposed it. I believed in Camargo. This year has been no surprise to me

ETA... the only reason this bet is even close is bc AA screwed around with Bautista

[Enscheff]

Camargo vs mous is turning out to be a great bet. Both guys at 2.5 fWAR

I have a pile of stuff ready to take to the pawn shop so I can pay this bet if I lose.

[msstate7]

I have a pile of stuff ready to take to the pawn shop so I can pay this bet if I lose.

Plenty of pay day advance places here.

[Enscheff]

Nah, I proposed it. I believed in Camargo. This year has been no surprise to me

ETA... the only reason this bet is even close is bc AA screwed around with Bautista

Yeah, that was part of the bet...

You think I didn't know they would be messing around with 3B all year, which would limit Camargo's chances?

I actually was pretty convinced they wquld add to 3B at the deadline and even further reduce his chances to produce.

It's going to be close, and I am completely shocked by the success Camargo has had. I don't expect it to continue into the future, but the bet is for 2018, and the numbers for 2018 don't lie.

[msstate7]

Camargo 3.1 fWAR
Mous 2.4 fWAR

Swanson .722 ops

20 games to go. Really need another power surge from Dansby to have a shot. Regardless, I'll be thrilled if Swanson finishes where he's at or better... very nice rebound year

[bravesfanMatt]

Anyone know acuña ops. Asking for a friend.

[nsacpi]

Anyone know acuña ops. Asking for a friend.

no clue...but his antics have caused Freddie to slump

[Enscheff]

Camargo 3.1 fWAR
Mous 2.4 fWAR

Swanson .722 ops

20 games to go. Really need another power surge from Dansby to have a shot. Regardless, I'll be thrilled if Swanson finishes where he's at or better... very nice rebound year

I made a run to the pawn shop today.

[salmagundy]

Anyone know acuña ops. Asking for a friend.

.928 going into Sun game 4 vs Snakes

[bravesfanMatt]

.928 going into Sun game 4 vs Snakes

Is that higher than .850

[msstate7]

Mous 2.6 fWAR (3 games left)
Camargo 3.2 fWAR (4 games left)

[msstate7]

Final...

Swanson no where close to .750. Congrats, nsacpi. I will not bet this a 3rd year in a row haha

Camargo 3.2 fWAR
Mous 2.7 fWAR

[bravesfanMatt]

Anyone know how Acuña finished. Man I hope it is higher than .850 ops

[nsacpi]

Anyone know how Acuña finished. Man I hope it is higher than .850 ops

.918...remind me what i owe you

[Enscheff]

Final...

Swanson no where close to .750. Congrats, nsacpi. I will not bet this a 3rd year in a row haha

Camargo 3.2 fWAR
Mous 2.7 fWAR

Tell me where to send the check

[nsacpi]

Tell me where to send the check

send it to me to pay off his Swanson bet...and I'll forward it to bravesfanMatt to pay off my Acuna bet

[msstate7]

Tell me where to send the check

Does clv's blog count as a charity?

[Garmel]

Does clv's blog count as a charity?

That would be illegal because that would qualify as cruel and unusual punishment.

[msstate7]

Tell me where to send the check

I really don't care. If someone knows a charity that needs enscheff's money, speak up.

[Enscheff]

I really don't care. If someone knows a charity that needs enscheff's money, speak up.

If you don't have a preference I'll send more cash to the athletic department of the local underprivileged high school I usually donate to. They have to do things like buy the kids pizza before games to make sure they had an actual meal that day.

[msstate7]

If you don't have a preference I'll send more cash to the athletic department of the local underprivileged high school I usually donate to. They have to do things like buy the kids pizza before games to make sure they had an actual meal that day.

Winner.

[bravesfanMatt]

.918...remind me what i owe you

I think it was 10 grand.

[nsacpi]

I think it was 10 grand.

sure...i'll have it transferred from my swiss bank account...what's the number for yours

[bravesfanMatt]

sure...i'll have it transferred from my swiss bank account...what's the number for yours

How about instead you have to streak in game 3 of NLDS. Try to make it to 2nd base.

And I mean 2nd base with Freddie Freeman. Not the bag.

[nsacpi]

How about instead you have to streak in game 3 of NLDS. Try to make it to 2nd base.

And I mean 2nd base with Freddie Freeman. Not the bag.

I'm not familiar with norms of public decency in the south. Would the public approve?

[BeanieAntics]

I'm not familiar with norms of public decency in the south. Would the public approve?

I always struggle with this too, and I grew up here. Let me ask the guy humping his sister in his front yard across the street........

Yeah, you're all good.