The 2019 Money

[clvclv]

Assuming no significant additions are made via trade prior to next winter (not really much of a need to), where would YOU spend the ~$80 million that's assumed to be available?

Before the usual suspects start calling people idiots, understand that this is the place for you to express your preference, and that the "geniuses" climbing your *ss about where you'd spend it are the actual idiots.



1.) 3B. 4 years/$120 million for Donaldson to finish his career. Riley moves to LF. ($30 million)

2.) The pen. 4 years/$60 million for Kimbrel to come home. After transitioning Newcomb and Touki, a Kimbrel/Minter/Vizcaino/Newcomb/Touki back-end would be absolutely filthy. ($15 million)

3.) The kids. Do whatever it takes to lock up Albies, Acuna, Gohara, and Soroka so that they'll also be cost-controlled in case they explode and draw such big arbitration salaries that you have no flexibility. (???)


We may not have a textbook "Ace", but the combination of Gohara, Wright, Julio, Soroka, Folty, Allard, and Anderson give us as good a shot at developing a legitimate #1, #2, and #3 from within as anyone out there, and they'll be cheap. If they're not enough to get you over the top, someone that overpaid for a front-line guy will be looking to unload him.

[Enscheff]

Anyone who thinks the Braves are going to give a BP arm $15M per year hasn’t been paying attention the last decade. Further, Kimbrel is going to blow past $60M. He will be getting Jansen money. Someone has no clue how to value players, but I won’t name names.

The Braves will need the same thing they need this year...LF and 3B. Look for them to give someone at one of those positions $75M-$100M, and then fill in the holes with the typical lower priced fodder.

I would like to see them make a play on Grandal too.

A blockbuster with a team who just decided to rebuild next offseason is also likely. Maybe SF will blow things up and deal Posey and Bumgarner. Tigers may still have Fulmer. Jays may be ready to deal Stroman. Rays may decide to move Archer. Yelich and/Realmuto may still be Marlins.

[Heyward]

I'd trade for Yelich now which would love up the outfield for the next 5+ years.

And go after a 3B or C.

And yeah, Kimbrel is gonna get at least 5 years, 100 million even with an opt-out after 3 years.

If we went after a RP, i'd go for Andrew Miller, could use him at closer or set up.

[jpx7]

I'd third the expectation re Kimbrel. I never anticipate "hometown" discounts; and, even if Kimbrel were to offer one to the Braves, I think it's more likely to be $20 instead of $22 million AAV, versus $15 million. I also think the Braves would be ludicrous to devote their resources there.

I'm definitely an advocate of using the space now to relieve the Marlins of good players/contracts (Yelich) in exchange for also swallowing bad players/contracts (Chen, Prado). It seems like a rare opportunity to take advantage of a team desperate to move pieces for anti-competitive reasons, and likewise to water down talent-cost with dollar-cost.

[clvclv]

I'd third the expectation re Kimbrel. I never anticipate "hometown" discounts; and, even if Kimbrel were to offer one to the Braves, I think it's more likely to be $20 instead of $22 million AAV, versus $15 million. I also think the Braves would be ludicrous to devote their resources there.

I'm definitely an advocate of using the space now to relieve the Marlins of good players/contracts (Yelich) in exchange for also swallowing bad players/contracts (Chen, Prado). It seems like a rare opportunity to take advantage of a team desperate to move pieces for anti-competitive reasons, and likewise to water down talent-cost with dollar-cost.

The only problem with this line of thinking is that the almighty has told us the Braves are broke - there's absolutely no way they can afford to eat money from bad contracts in 2017, all the money is gone.

[Southcack77]

I don't understand the point in signing Kimbrel. That seems like a terrible use of resources. That's a big market acquisition.

I don't understand the point of taking a lot of bad contracts just to avoid giving the Marlins prospects on Yelich. I don't quite understand the obsession with Yelich to begin with, but if you are going to be obsessed, I don't understand the unwillingness to give up prospects to get him if you think he's really that good.

[Enscheff]

I don't understand the point in signing Kimbrel. That seems like a terrible use of resources. That's a big market acquisition.

I don't understand the point of taking a lot of bad contracts just to avoid giving the Marlins prospects on Yelich. I don't quite understand the obsession with Yelich to begin with, but if you are going to be obsessed, I don't understand the unwillingness to give up prospects to get him if you think he's really that good.

The idea is that since the Braves are punting this year, they may as well use the extra payroll from a lost season to improve the team for the next 5 years. That’s kinda the ultimate goal for rebuilding teams.

I don’t understand why it’s so hard to understand.

[jpx7]

I don't understand the point in signing Kimbrel. That seems like a terrible use of resources. That's a big market acquisition.

I don't understand the point of taking a lot of bad contracts just to avoid giving the Marlins prospects on Yelich. I don't quite understand the obsession with Yelich to begin with, but if you are going to be obsessed, I don't understand the unwillingness to give up prospects to get him if you think he's really that good.

The Kimbrel thing doesn't really make much sense. But I have to echo Enscheff here: the value of acquiring, through salary-dump versus through prospect capital, any good player on a good contract (Yelich or otherwise) seems pretty obvious.

[Hawk]

It'd be nice to find a happy medium with the Marlins between giving up decent prospects and acquiring bloated contracts. Preferably somewhere before taking on Chen's contract, but after absorbing monies owed to Prado and Tazawa/Ziegler.

I think the smart money is (rightfully) on the Marlins chaining Chen to Yelich.

[Chico]

It'd be nice to find a happy medium with the Marlins between giving up decent prospects and acquiring bloated contracts. Preferably somewhere before taking on Chen's contract, but after absorbing monies owed to Prado and Tazawa/Ziegler.

I think the smart money is (rightfully) on the Marlins chaining Chen to Yelich.

Yelich has so much surplus value the Marlins could still attach Chen to him and get a haul back. Looking at their prospects they really need some hitting prospects in there. I'd start out with Riley and Ajax as replacements for Bour and Realmuto, then 2 pitchers from there out of Allard, Soroka, and Anderson.

Yelich and Chen for Allard, Anderson, Riley, and Ajax.

[Southcack77]

The idea is that since the Braves are punting this year, they may as well use the extra payroll from a lost season to improve the team for the next 5 years. That’s kinda the ultimate goal for rebuilding teams.

I don’t understand why it’s so hard to understand.

Because the money they’d be taking on wouldn’t just be in 2018, it would be several years beyond.

[Jaw]

He's an awesome player. An awesome center fielder. I'm just not sure it makes sense for this team to take on years of salary (again) and pay a high prospect cost to put a really good CFer in LF.

[nsacpi]

Most likely we will spend on left, third and catcher for 2019.

Assuming a market price of 8M per win, we can use 60M to buy 7-8 wins at those three positions. So maybe 2 wins at catcher and 3 wins each at third and left. Those are the economics of the free agent market.

Alternatively, we can find ways to "stretch" the budget. One way is to extent someone like Flowers on a team friendly deal. Would allow us to shop in the higher rent district at third and left.

We can also "stretch" the budget by filling some of our needs through trades. That allows the acquisition of some players with surplus value rather than paying the market rate which by definition has no surplus value. You can do that if you have depth at certain positions. It is possible that we will have an extra starting pitcher that we could trade next off-season to fill needs elsewhere. I would oppose "stretching" the budget by dipping too deeply into the farm system for trade chips. That would imo have a significant negative effect on the length of our competitive window, which has already been negatively affected by the scandal and associated penalties.

Finally, of course there are surprises. Right now it looks like our needs will be catcher, third and left. But that could change. Both for the better and worse. I'd keep an eye on the situation at short.

[bravesfanMatt]

Sign me up for anyone who is a great defender. Don’t care if a guy who can play center is playing a corner. I want my young pitchers. Hell I want all my pitcher throwing while they have the best possible defense behind them.

[nsacpi]

Sign me up for anyone who is a great defender. Don’t care if a guy who can play center is playing a corner. I want my young pitchers. Hell I want all my pitcher throwing while they have the best possible defense behind them.

I'm a big fan of having two center fielder caliber defenders in the outfield. I think the extra benefit from having a third defender of that caliber is significantly less than having a second one.

Meanwhile there is a certain amount of complementarity on offense from having a mix of power and OBP. And looking at our likely lineup for 2019, I see some need for power. It isn't the kind of consideration that overrides everything else (having good players of whatever type is more important), but at the margins it argues in favor of someone who has power in left.

[clvclv]

I'm a big fan of having two center fielder caliber defenders in the outfield. I think the extra benefit from having a third defender of that caliber is significantly less than having a second one.

Meanwhile there is a certain amount of complementarity on offense from having a mix of power and OBP. And looking at our likely lineup for 2019, I see some need for power. It isn't the kind of consideration that overrides everything else (having good players of whatever type is more important), but at the margins it argues in favor of someone who has power in left.

This is a part of the reason I'd almost rather stay out of the bidding war for Yelich if and when the Marlins actually do make him available. I think everybody understands how inefficient going nuts on free-agents would be, but when your openings line up perfectly with what's going to be available next winter, I'm more inclined to use the prospects to fill another need. I also agree that an expensive closer is typically a bad use of resources, but if that's one of the final pieces, I understand when teams commit to one.

I think you stay away from anything that adds to payroll next year - which means no Prado in a deal for Yelich. It's certainly out of character for the Braves under previous leadership, but I believe you need to do whatever you have to do (including winning a bidding war) for Donaldson next winter (assuming something crazy doesn't happen and AA goes out and gets Moustakas). He just fits too perfectly to pass on him - assuming you're looking at a competitive window of 2019-2022, you control almost every other piece for that period. You'd need to find a way to tack at least one more year onto Freddie's deal (I think he'd be open to it) and pick up Ender's option year, but you would still have Albies, Acuna, Dansby/Camargo, Riley, Pache, Gohara, Newcomb, Fried, Soroka, Wright, Allard, Anderson, Minter, Touki, Lindgren, Wentz, Wilson, Davidson, Weigel, and whomever you get with the #8 pick in June for that entire time.

I'm all for developing inexpensive Closers from within, it's just that the Braves have always shied away from turning someone with unbelievable stuff (like Folty, Newcomb, or Touki) into a bullpen weapon until it's too late in the past. Hopefully that will change under AA. If he's willing to keep a couple guys like that instead of trying to use them as trade bait there's absolutely no reason to spend on Kimbrel or a Kimbrel-type. Take that money and give it to Adam Jones or McCutchen on a 4 year deal to play LF for the entire competitive window and use Riley, Jackson, and a couple of arms to go get your "Ace" instead.

[Russ2dollas]

I just do not see us paying Donaldson, Harper or mochado money

Big money rp seems silly to me, esp with our glut of arms. Let weigel come back as a closer

I think we will go heavy into extensions. I’d like to see us to try and front load some deals to save on the back end. Swanson alalbies acuna flowers and a pitcher or two get extended. I think we will get the next tier of guy by getting one Adam jones type.

I still feel like aa will make a big trade that will make some room. Like make a yelich deal and need a vet 3b bc Riley in it. Or make the archer deal and need a vet starter bc young sps in it.

We will see. We will have the money. I hope we do not pay too much for too long on past performance

[Heyward]

I just do not see us paying Donaldson, Harper or mochado money

Big money rp seems silly to me, esp with our glut of arms. Let weigel come back as a closer

I think we will go heavy into extensions. I’d like to see us to try and front load some deals to save on the back end. Swanson alalbies acuna flowers and a pitcher or two get extended. I think we will get the next tier of guy by getting one Adam jones type.

I still feel like aa will make a big trade that will make some room. Like make a yelich deal and need a vet 3b bc Riley in it. Or make the archer deal and need a vet starter bc young sps in it.

We will see. We will have the money. I hope we do not pay too much for too long on past performance

Who do you pay the money then too?

Braves only have 46 million pre-arb next year in 2019, they could certainly go after a big name if they wanted to do so. Not sure if they will but the moneys there to do so.

And spending money on a big name BP arm isnt a bad idea given bullpens win in the postseason.

[thethe]

While it would be nice to have a shiny expensive toy the goal should be to build a 25 man roster without dead weight. I'd rather invest in the extensions and bench/BP arms while our young players develop. Keep that money short term so youi can strike when a player is available that fits a short/long term need.

[Enscheff]

I just do not see us paying Donaldson, Harper or mochado money

Big money rp seems silly to me, esp with our glut of arms. Let weigel come back as a closer

I think we will go heavy into extensions. I’d like to see us to try and front load some deals to save on the back end. Swanson alalbies acuna flowers and a pitcher or two get extended. I think we will get the next tier of guy by getting one Adam jones type.

I still feel like aa will make a big trade that will make some room. Like make a yelich deal and need a vet 3b bc Riley in it. Or make the archer deal and need a vet starter bc young sps in it.

We will see. We will have the money. I hope we do not pay too much for too long on past performance

If we assume a payroll of $110M+ this year and a team pushing .500, I think it’s safe to assume a payroll of $125M+ in 2019. Using the 20% rule of thumb, the Braves could add a player making $25M per year and not be in jeopardy of using too much payroll in a single player.

Obviously Machado and Harper are out, but that puts Donaldson on the edge of being possible...or at least worth rosterbation. Something like 6/150 with the plan being Donaldson replacing Freeman at 1b when his contract expires. Not likely, but plausible.

Next off season I expect the Braves to finally convert young pitching into MLB talent, buy a FA in the $100M bin, fill in with 1-2 more significant FAs (like Grandal), and possibly trade Teheran with 2 seasons of control left (though that may not be a plan AA picked up in LA).

[Russ2dollas]

Who do you pay the money then too?

Braves only have 46 million pre-arb next year in 2019, they could certainly go after a big name if they wanted to do so. Not sure if they will but the moneys there to do so.

And spending money on a big name BP arm isnt a bad idea given bullpens win in the postseason.

you don't have to spend the money.

you can extend guys.

you could overpay on a per year basis to get less of a long term commitment.

[Heyward]

you don't have to spend the money.

you can extend guys.

you could overpay on a per year basis to get less of a long term commitment.

If payroll is 120-130, Braves can easily pay a guy for 25-30 mil a year without much of an issue.

They dont have many big money guys and alot of the players are still pre-arb right now.

Doubt they'll go after Harper, and Machado seems Yankee bound but a guy like Donaldson could be a possibility if they wanted to and maybe a big name BP arm as well as catcher. Braves have the cash to make it happen.

[CJ9]

Bowman’s latest talks about next year: https://t.co/QnF8FeGamd

He talks about us wanting to add a front line starting pitcher. The only real names he mentions as potential signings are Charlie Blackmon and AJ Pollock.

[The Chosen One]

Bowman’s latest talks about next year: https://t.co/QnF8FeGamd

He talks about us wanting to add a front line starting pitcher. The only real names he mentions as potential signings are Charlie Blackmon and AJ Pollock.

Lol.

All the pitching we’ve acquired and drafted and we still have to pay big money to a frontline starter.

[clvclv]

Lol.

All the pitching we’ve acquired and drafted and we still have to pay big money to a frontline starter.

That's not entirely unfunny, but think about it for a minute. IF you don't have the payroll constraints that somebody like Tampa or Pittsburgh have that relegate you to constantly be in rebuilding mode because you can't afford to just throw money at that "last piece" - AKA a Darvish/Arrieta/Machado/Harper/Donaldson etc. - and you feel like you're entering your window, why wouldn't you cash-in the shiny prospects you have that HAVEN'T shown any chinks in their armor if they get you someone that's proven they can succeed at the MLB level???

For instance, everybody screams bloody murder when you suggest packaging Soroka, Allard, and other pieces for someone like Archer, but does anyone realistically believe either one of them has a shot at being a better Game 1 starter in a postseason series against a Kershaw/Sale/Scherzer/Verlander/etc. than Archer would? Gohara "could" be that kind of guy if everything falls perfectly and you're incredibly lucky, but if you were betting your house on someone facing off against Scherzer/Strasburg four times in a playoff series, wouldn't you rather have Gohara as your #2 even then?

If you don't have anyone in your system that you KNOW beyond doubt that can toe the rubber against a Kershaw/Sale/Scherzer without feeling incredibly overmatched, you eventually have to pay that guy if you're serious about taking that last step. This is the entire reason the Astros finally went and did what it took to get Verlander last summer - Keuchel has typically been really good (Gohara), McCullers has unbelievable stuff (Folty), but NOBODY (and I mean nobody) ever projected that Charlie freaking Morton (Wright) could do what he did during The Series.

For as good as Severino was last year, everybody saw his meltdown when it counted - this is the entire reason Cashman is trying to add Gerritt Cole. Now that Arrieta is presumably gone, Theo and Jed are trying to throw money at Darvish. Maybe those combinations aren't better "on paper" than Scherzer and Strasburg, but I think you have to feel a lot better about your chances when you can push everybody down a slot than running a Gohara/Julio (if he were to bounce back) tandem out there against them. If healthy, name a combination you'd run out there other than Sale/Price that you knew you weren't already behind the 8-ball with. Kershaw and who? Verlander and who? The Astros are even talking to Darvish because they realize Keuchel's likely gone after 2018.

This isn't meant to get the cart before the horse - just to point out the fact that an Arrieta/Darvish/Archer/Fulmer paired with Gohara HAS to make you feel like you've got a better shot at winning a series against that type of pairing than a Gohara paired with Julio/Folty/Newcomb/Wright/Soroka/Allard does - even if any of them actually ever reach their ceilings.

[The Chosen One]

Acquiring a cost-controlled pitcher like Archer versus paying a frontline starter more than 25 million is not a good idea for a team getting by on a mid-market payroll, i.e., the team that seems to be relying on something like The Battery to provide revenue for the team.

[clvclv]

Acquiring a cost-controlled pitcher like Archer versus paying a frontline starter more than 25 million is not a good idea for a team getting by on a mid-market payroll, i.e., the team that seems to be relying on something like The Battery to provide revenue for the team.

The point is, tearing it all down to take a shot when you've built this "super-system" is pretty useless if you don't realize your window simply isn't going to last longer than 3-4 years anymore unless you can spend with the big boys. The Yankees/Red Sox/Cubs/Dodgers/etc. are ALWAYS going to be able to throw money around to cover up mistakes and fill holes as long as their ownership is committed to winning - sure they'll have to pay the luxury tax penalty, but does that make THAT big a difference when your revenues for winning it all offset that?

6-10 year competitive windows (much less the 15 year run the Braves pulled off) are never going to be anything other than a fantasy going forward unless you can fix problems without simply spending money.

[The Chosen One]

I’d worry about that competitive window when we’re actually competitive again.

But it was more of me making fun of the old guard that strongly emphasized drafting pitching and pitching and acquiring pitching like Wisler whom have not panned out.

[Heyward]

Am i the only one who isnt a huge fan of Archer?

He's good but im not sure about trading a huge amount of prospects for him.

[thewupk]

Am i the only one who isnt a huge fan of Archer?

He's good but im not sure about trading a huge amount of prospects for him.

yes, you are.

edit: the only issue with Archer is that he gives up homeruns. In this next homer happy era of baseball it's not that big of a deal but he does give up the long ball. Luckily, unlike Teheran, he doesn't walk many guys and he strikes out a ton.

[Southcack77]

If the Braves cash in Teheran's money plus some of the 70+ million they ought to have at their disposal pretty soon to upgrade their #1 spot in the rotation, I am not going to complain.

And their having acquired pitchers that didn't work out or pitchers who might isn't really going to change that much.

They basically only really have one OF spot, 3B, C and the starting rotation that are obvious places to spend the large amount of money they have to spend. Got to spend it somewhere.

[Horsehide Harry]

If the Braves have to trade for pitching then the rebuild was a failure. Plain and simple. If they emphasized pitching like they did and can't find an internal pitcher that at least looks like a TOR guy then they failed.

Trading for a young starter and signing a FA like a Darvish or Arrieta are entirely 2 different things. The young, cost controlled starter needs to come from within. If you still need more pitching, go sign someone. Otherwise you are begging to reside in baseball purgatory.

[Enscheff]

If the Braves cash in Teheran's money plus some of the 70+ million they ought to have at their disposal pretty soon to upgrade their #1 spot in the rotation, I am not going to complain.

And their having acquired pitchers that didn't work out or pitchers who might isn't really going to change that much.

They basically only really have one OF spot, 3B, C and the starting rotation that are obvious places to spend the large amount of money they have to spend. Got to spend it somewhere.

Oh is that it? Just 4 of the 9 positions on the baseball field?

I hope they can find a way to spend that money on improvements! We all know how hard it is to improve a 72 win team!

[Enscheff]

Lol.

All the pitching we’ve acquired and drafted and we still have to pay big money to a frontline starter.

I’m glad I’m not the only one who sees the hilarity in that scenario.

[clvclv]

I’d worry about that competitive window when we’re actually competitive again.

But it was more of me making fun of the old guard that strongly emphasized drafting pitching and pitching and acquiring pitching like Wisler whom have not panned out.

Definitely understandable. I just took it as more of an admission of what most circles realize as fact - that the chances of drafting and developing a true "Ace" (whether that's your focus or not) - just doesn't happen very often for anybody. When you list the widely accepted "Aces", you pretty much come up with...

Kershaw
Sale
Scherzer
Syndergaard
Verlander
Kluber
MadBum
Price (when healthy maybe)
Strasburg

then you have the next tier that probably includes...

Archer
Darvish
Arrieta
deGrom
Greinke
Carrasco
Cole
Lester
Severino
Robbie Ray
Paxton (when healthy)
Stroman
Fulmer
Keuchel
Carlos Martinez

If things go as hoped, I think we could project Gohara to fit in to that second group. I'm just one of those who still believes that you have to have as many high-upside arms as possible because so few ever develop into #1s, much less true "Aces". Given the injury and attrition rates, you've done well if you're able to develop 60% of a good rotation from within that's affordable during your window. To beat one of the true contenders in a 7 game series, you've got to have someone who - at the very least - gives you a fighting chance to beat one of the "Aces" in a Game 1 and/or Game 4 while your #2 makes you feel like you're going to win a Game 2 and/or Game 5.

Gohara is good enough to be that second guy against most Pitchers, but if you burn him against an "Ace", you're fighting an uphill battle unless everything goes right for a Folty/Newcomb/Wright/Allard-type. I just look at the admission that they may need to go outside the organization to get that guy that makes Gohara that really good #2 as a realization of that fact - that developing TWO guys from within that are that good just doesn't happen much.

[Skeeter31]

Definitely understandable. I just took it as more of an admission of what most circles realize as fact - that the chances of drafting and developing a true "Ace" (whether that's your focus or not) - just doesn't happen very often for anybody. When you list the widely accepted "Aces", you pretty much come up with...

Kershaw
Sale
Scherzer
Syndergaard
Verlander
Kluber
MadBum
Price (when healthy maybe)
Strasburg

then you have the next tier that probably includes...

Archer
Darvish
Arrieta
deGrom
Greinke
Carrasco
Cole
Lester
Severino
Robbie Ray
Paxton (when healthy)
Stroman
Fulmer
Keuchel
Carlos Martinez

If things go as hoped, I think we could project Gohara to fit in to that second group. I'm just one of those who still believes that you have to have as many high-upside arms as possible because so few ever develop into #1s, much less true "Aces". Given the injury and attrition rates, you've done well if you're able to develop 60% of a good rotation from within that's affordable during your window. To beat one of the true contenders in a 7 game series, you've got to have someone who - at the very least - gives you a fighting chance to beat one of the "Aces" in a Game 1 and/or Game 4 while your #2 makes you feel like you're going to win a Game 2 and/or Game 5.

Gohara is good enough to be that second guy against most Pitchers, but if you burn him against an "Ace", you're fighting an uphill battle unless everything goes right for a Folty/Newcomb/Wright/Allard-type. I just look at the admission that they may need to go outside the organization to get that guy that makes Gohara that really good #2 as a realization of that fact - that developing TWO guys from within that are that good just doesn't happen much.

We drafted and traded to acquire the pieces that should have become those “aces.” The fact that they didn’t looks bad on us. The fact that none of the Wisler, Newcomb, Folty, Blair turned into even a legitimate #2 or 3 is just sad. These were pieces that should have been what we needed and developed into that cost controlled young TOR starter. Instead they’re all back of the rotation or possible bullpen pieces.

I have a feeling the Braves will soon be in the same payroll boat as the Pirates and Rays and need to make most of their pieces come from within because Liberty is not going to give us the money needed to be competitive.

[Super]

We drafted and traded to acquire the pieces that should have become those “aces.” The fact that they didn’t looks bad on us. The fact that none of the Wisler, Newcomb, Folty, Blair turned into even a legitimate #2 or 3 is just sad. These were pieces that should have been what we needed and developed into that cost controlled young TOR starter. Instead they’re all back of the rotation or possible bullpen pieces.

I have a feeling the Braves will soon be in the same payroll boat as the Pirates and Rays and need to make most of their pieces come from within because Liberty is not going to give us the money needed to be competitive.

this post seems so silly to me.
we should've developed an ace by now? i mean, really? there are less than 10 consensus "aces" in the league. three years into a rebuild and we should have one of them? most of the pitching we acquired is still in the minors.

newcomb also has a shot at being a #2 or #3. but it seems many, you included, underestimate how difficult it is to find a true #2, much less a true #1, or an "ace."

[nsacpi]

The formula we have to stick to as a mid-market team:

1) Grow your own stars (guys who can generate over 3 WAR per season).

2) Use $$ to build depth and surround the homegrown stars with as many competent complementary players (guys who can be expected to produce up to 3 WAR per season) as possible.

Trading for stars or signing star free agents is not a good idea. There are occasional exceptions. But I'm talking as a general proposition.

[50PoundHead]

We drafted and traded to acquire the pieces that should have become those “aces.” The fact that they didn’t looks bad on us. The fact that none of the Wisler, Newcomb, Folty, Blair turned into even a legitimate #2 or 3 is just sad. These were pieces that should have been what we needed and developed into that cost controlled young TOR starter. Instead they’re all back of the rotation or possible bullpen pieces.

I have a feeling the Braves will soon be in the same payroll boat as the Pirates and Rays and need to make most of their pieces come from within because Liberty is not going to give us the money needed to be competitive.

I think one needs to be patient with young pitchers. It doesn't appear that either Wisler or Blair will become big contributors, but Newcomb and Foltynewicz have both shown some promise. Look at the early career numbers for some of the guys that were listed. A number of them were solid right out of the gate, but some of them really had growing pains.

[clvclv]

this post seems so silly to me.
we should've developed an ace by now? i mean, really? there are less than 10 consensus "aces" in the league. three years into a rebuild and we should have one of them? most of the pitching we acquired is still in the minors.

newcomb also has a shot at being a #2 or #3. but it seems many, you included, underestimate how difficult it is to find a true #2, much less a true #1, or an "ace."


And that's really the point, isn't it? When you look at the contenders that have a REALLY strong 1-2 punch...

Houston - added Verlander from outside.
Washington - added Scherzer from outside.
Boston - added BOTH Sale and Price from outside.
Yankees - added Tanaka (and Gray and possibly Cole) from outside.
Cleveland - Kluber came from outside.
Cubs - added Lester (and Arrieta when they had him for that matter) from outside.
Arizona - added both Greinke and Ray from outside.
Dodgers - don't really have that #2 that stops you in your tracks to pair with Kershaw (although Buehler could turn into that guy).

The only team that has two guys on that list that were developed in their own organization is the Mutts - and it's easy to point out that Syndergaard came from outside even though he finished developing in their system.

[nsacpi]

I think one needs to be patient with young pitchers. It doesn't appear that either Wisler or Blair will become big contributors, but Newcomb and Foltynewicz have both shown some promise. Look at the early career numbers for some of the guys that were listed. A number of them were solid right out of the gate, but some of them really had growing pains.

Gohara and Soroka are the two I have the greatest hopes for.

[nsacpi]

And that's really the point, isn't it? When you look at the contenders that have a REALLY strong 1-2 punch...

Houston - added Verlander from outside.
Washington - added Scherzer from outside.
Boston - added BOTH Sale and Price from outside.
Yankees - added Tanaka (and Gray and possibly Cole) from outside.
Cleveland - Kluber came from outside.
Cubs - added Lester (and Arrieta when they had him for that matter) from outside.
Arizona - added both Greinke and Ray from outside.
Dodgers - don't really have that #2 that stops you in your tracks to pair with Kershaw (although Buehler could turn into that guy).

The only team that has two guys on that list that were developed in their own organization is the Mutts - and it's easy to point out that Syndergaard came from outside even though he finished developing in their system.

Kluber was acquired while still in the minors. Sort of like our acquiring Gohara and Syndergaard. Those guys are hybrid homegrown/external acquisition. But certainly not "stars" when acquired.

Kluber and Syndergaard btw are examples of the kind of trade we need to avoid (from the perspective of the team that traded them away). I am extremely reluctant to send multiple top prospects for Yelich. It would have to be a lopsided deal for me to do something like that.

[salmagundy]

With all the talk about not developing the pitchers that have been added to the system belies one problem. And that problem was not addressed this year nor has it been addressed in this topic.. The cast of pitchers in "regression" is growing as is the list of throwers not climbing towards ceiling. Yet, no one has mentioned the base of the problem.

It should be a simple answer to our pitching problems. That problem is not the pitchers we have obtained, but in their development. Who is responsible for regression or lack of climbing to "ceiling".

Easy answer, the pitching coaches. Why is Hernandez still in Atlanta. Biggest opportunity missed in not obtaining a new pitching coach at the MLB level this off season.

[nsacpi]

With all the talk about not developing the pitchers that have been added to the system belies one problem. And that problem was not addressed this year nor has it been addressed in this topic.. The cast of pitchers in "regression" is growing as is the list of throwers not climbing towards ceiling. Yet, no one has mentioned the base of the problem.

It should be a simple answer to our pitching problems. That problem is not the pitchers we have obtained, but in their development. Who is responsible for regression or lack of climbing to "ceiling".

Easy answer, the pitching coaches. Why is Hernandez still in Atlanta. Biggest opportunity missed in not obtaining a new pitching coach at the MLB level this off season.

Some regressed. But Gohara, Soroka and Allard were promoted very aggressively and did very well. I would not say the outlook for pitching within our system dimmed in 2017.

[clvclv]

Kluber was acquired while still in the minors. Sort of like our acquiring Gohara and Syndergaard. Those guys are hybrid homegrown/external acquisition. But certainly not "stars" when acquired.

He was, but he'd already pitched 167.2 innings at the AA level when they got him and he struggled for a good while after they got him before finally putting everything together. I put him more in the Syndergaard category than the Gohara category, but that's really just nitpicking. That's why I mentioned Syndergaard. But you're right - even if something amazing happens and we wind up with another TOR guy out of the Folty/Newcomb/Wright/Allard/Soroka/Anderson group, we had to go outside the organization as well.

[nsacpi]

He was, but he'd already pitched 167.2 innings at the AA level when they got him and he struggled for a good while after they got him before finally putting everything together. I put him more in the Syndergaard category than the Gohara category, but that's really just nitpicking. That's why I mentioned Syndergaard. But you're right - even if something amazing happens and we wind up with another TOR guy out of the Folty/Newcomb/Wright/Allard/Soroka/Anderson group, we had to go outside the organization as well.

The point I'm arguing against is going outside the organization for a guy who is already an established star.

[clvclv]

With all the talk about not developing the pitchers that have been added to the system belies one problem. And that problem was not addressed this year nor has it been addressed in this topic.. The cast of pitchers in "regression" is growing as is the list of throwers not climbing towards ceiling. Yet, no one has mentioned the base of the problem.

It should be a simple answer to our pitching problems. That problem is not the pitchers we have obtained, but in their development. Who is responsible for regression or lack of climbing to "ceiling".

Easy answer, the pitching coaches. Why is Hernandez still in Atlanta. Biggest opportunity missed in not obtaining a new pitching coach at the MLB level this off season.

Certainly a valid theory - although I think the jury is still out on that to some extent. Folty's a headcase, and the entire MLB landscape is littered with unbelievable arms like Newcomb who just never quite put it together. If the Gohara/Wright/Soroka/Allard/Anderson group doesn't come close to their ceilings, I definitely agree that heads should roll - but I wouldn't lose the first wink of sleep if AA replaced everyone working with the kids whenever he sees fit.

[clvclv]

The point I'm arguing against is going outside the organization for a guy who is already an established star.

I'm only in favor of that whenever AA deems he's "close" and that move puts them in position to start making a run. The Cubs added Lester a year early because that was their chance to get him. If he's adding one of those types of guys because he's ready to add a bat like Yelich by trading from the excess arms and spending on a Frazier or Donaldson to seriously contend in 2019, I have no problem with adding an Arrieta/Darvish (maybe even Cobb) now.

[Horsehide Harry]

And that's really the point, isn't it? When you look at the contenders that have a REALLY strong 1-2 punch...

Houston - added Verlander from outside.
Washington - added Scherzer from outside.
Boston - added BOTH Sale and Price from outside.
Yankees - added Tanaka (and Gray and possibly Cole) from outside.
Cleveland - Kluber came from outside.
Cubs - added Lester (and Arrieta when they had him for that matter) from outside.
Arizona - added both Greinke and Ray from outside.
Dodgers - don't really have that #2 that stops you in your tracks to pair with Kershaw (although Buehler could turn into that guy).

The only team that has two guys on that list that were developed in their own organization is the Mutts - and it's easy to point out that Syndergaard came from outside even though he finished developing in their system.

Houston - added Verlander from outside. Verlander was a salary dump from Detroit at a time when the Astros were clearly competitive for a WS. He didn't cost much in relative terms.
Washington - added Scherzer from outside. FA signing. No talent went the other way.
Boston - added BOTH Sale and Price from outside. Price was a FA. Sale was costly in terms of talent and is an example of what the Braves would have to give up. Boston can afford to do that. The Braves can't.
Yankees - added Tanaka (and Gray and possibly Cole) from outside. Tanaka signed as a FA. Gray is a reputation guy that hasn't pitched really well since 2015 and is also an injury risk. He doesn't belong on the list and what the Yankees traded for him shows it.
Cleveland - Kluber came from outside. Minor league acquisition through trade. Not equivalent to what is discussed - trading for an established TOR starter.
Cubs - added Lester (and Arrieta when they had him for that matter) from outside. Lester was a FA signing. Arrieta was a nothing until Chicago turned him around.
Arizona - added both Greinke and Ray from outside. Greinke was a FA signing. Ray was an unknown traded twice before ending with Arizona. Was part of a three team trade with Green going to the Tigers and Gregorius going to the Yanks.
Dodgers - don't really have that #2 that stops you in your tracks to pair with Kershaw (although Buehler could turn into that guy). All internal unless you count Wood who was a Brave.

So essentially what you have is one situation that is equivalent to what people are advocating the Braves do and that was the Sale acquisition by Boston where Boston sent the top prospect in baseball that cost them $63M to sign (Moncada), one of the top power RH starters in the game (Kopech), a useful and projectable prospect outfielder (Basabe) and a live arm (Diaz). So essentially equivalent to a trade where the Braves send Acuna, Wright, Waters and Sanchez.

When looked at that way it isn't so desirable anymore.

People want the Unicorn to show up where the Braves get a TOR guy for nothing that will be missed. It would take a very special set of circumstances for that to happen. One way would be if the team trading the player had other really bad contracts that they wanted to move AND the Braves had the payroll space to eat that money. Other than that, you would be trading away from the rebuild, robbing from tomorrow for the short term of today.

It would be unwise IMO, BUT, if you absolutely HAVE to have a guy, go sign a FA. That makes much more sense than trading for an Archer or equivalent.

[Southcack77]

this post seems so silly to me.
we should've developed an ace by now? i mean, really? there are less than 10 consensus "aces" in the league. three years into a rebuild and we should have one of them? most of the pitching we acquired is still in the minors.

newcomb also has a shot at being a #2 or #3. but it seems many, you included, underestimate how difficult it is to find a true #2, much less a true #1, or an "ace."

I agree with you.

[Southcack77]

The point I'm arguing against is going outside the organization for a guy who is already an established star.

My guess is you are going to have one or two guys that you go out and get during any real contention period.

I'm not super high on trading anyone right now, because the Braves haven't established a rotation or lineup that looks like a definite contending core. I think it makes sense to wait and see which of the young pitchers are going to make up say 3/5ths of the rotation and whether Acuna, Albies, Swanson, and Riley or whomever are good before you start trading away solid prospects for established starters.

But once you have determined what your core is, I don't mind as much going out and getting established players that can help you.

And if you can limit the length of your contract exposure spending big money on a guy or two seems within the budget parameters once you have sorted that out.

[clvclv]

Houston - added Verlander from outside. Verlander was a salary dump from Detroit at a time when the Astros were clearly competitive for a WS. He didn't cost much in relative terms.
Washington - added Scherzer from outside. FA signing. No talent went the other way.
Boston - added BOTH Sale and Price from outside. Price was a FA. Sale was costly in terms of talent and is an example of what the Braves would have to give up. Boston can afford to do that. The Braves can't.
Yankees - added Tanaka (and Gray and possibly Cole) from outside. Tanaka signed as a FA. Gray is a reputation guy that hasn't pitched really well since 2015 and is also an injury risk. He doesn't belong on the list and what the Yankees traded for him shows it.
Cleveland - Kluber came from outside. Minor league acquisition through trade. Not equivalent to what is discussed - trading for an established TOR starter.
Cubs - added Lester (and Arrieta when they had him for that matter) from outside. Lester was a FA signing. Arrieta was a nothing until Chicago turned him around.
Arizona - added both Greinke and Ray from outside. Greinke was a FA signing. Ray was an unknown traded twice before ending with Arizona. Was part of a three team trade with Green going to the Tigers and Gregorius going to the Yanks.
Dodgers - don't really have that #2 that stops you in your tracks to pair with Kershaw (although Buehler could turn into that guy). All internal unless you count Wood who was a Brave.

So essentially what you have is one situation that is equivalent to what people are advocating the Braves do and that was the Sale acquisition by Boston where Boston sent the top prospect in baseball that cost them $63M to sign (Moncada), one of the top power RH starters in the game (Kopech), a useful and projectable prospect outfielder (Basabe) and a live arm (Diaz). So essentially equivalent to a trade where the Braves send Acuna, Wright, Waters and Sanchez.

When looked at that way it isn't so desirable anymore.

People want the Unicorn to show up where the Braves get a TOR guy for nothing that will be missed. It would take a very special set of circumstances for that to happen. One way would be if the team trading the player had other really bad contracts that they wanted to move AND the Braves had the payroll space to eat that money. Other than that, you would be trading away from the rebuild, robbing from tomorrow for the short term of today.

It would be unwise IMO, BUT, if you absolutely HAVE to have a guy, go sign a FA. That makes much more sense than trading for an Archer or equivalent.

Agreed. If you can add Arrieta and use arms not named Gohara (or Wright if possible) to add Yelich's cheap contract, you have the money to play on a 3B next winter.

If the Marlins get a better offer than Soroka/Allard/Riley/Pache for Yelich, they've completely robbed someone (arguably even us).

Of course all that only works if you can convince ownership to pay Arrieta this year, backload his deal, and/or unload Markakis and/or Julio.

[Southcack77]

Houston - added Verlander from outside. Verlander was a salary dump from Detroit at a time when the Astros were clearly competitive for a WS. He didn't cost much in relative terms.
Washington - added Scherzer from outside. FA signing. No talent went the other way.
Boston - added BOTH Sale and Price from outside. Price was a FA. Sale was costly in terms of talent and is an example of what the Braves would have to give up. Boston can afford to do that. The Braves can't.
Yankees - added Tanaka (and Gray and possibly Cole) from outside. Tanaka signed as a FA. Gray is a reputation guy that hasn't pitched really well since 2015 and is also an injury risk. He doesn't belong on the list and what the Yankees traded for him shows it.
Cleveland - Kluber came from outside. Minor league acquisition through trade. Not equivalent to what is discussed - trading for an established TOR starter.
Cubs - added Lester (and Arrieta when they had him for that matter) from outside. Lester was a FA signing. Arrieta was a nothing until Chicago turned him around.
Arizona - added both Greinke and Ray from outside. Greinke was a FA signing. Ray was an unknown traded twice before ending with Arizona. Was part of a three team trade with Green going to the Tigers and Gregorius going to the Yanks.
Dodgers - don't really have that #2 that stops you in your tracks to pair with Kershaw (although Buehler could turn into that guy). All internal unless you count Wood who was a Brave.

So essentially what you have is one situation that is equivalent to what people are advocating the Braves do and that was the Sale acquisition by Boston where Boston sent the top prospect in baseball that cost them $63M to sign (Moncada), one of the top power RH starters in the game (Kopech), a useful and projectable prospect outfielder (Basabe) and a live arm (Diaz). So essentially equivalent to a trade where the Braves send Acuna, Wright, Waters and Sanchez.

When looked at that way it isn't so desirable anymore.

People want the Unicorn to show up where the Braves get a TOR guy for nothing that will be missed. It would take a very special set of circumstances for that to happen. One way would be if the team trading the player had other really bad contracts that they wanted to move AND the Braves had the payroll space to eat that money. Other than that, you would be trading away from the rebuild, robbing from tomorrow for the short term of today.

It would be unwise IMO, BUT, if you absolutely HAVE to have a guy, go sign a FA. That makes much more sense than trading for an Archer or equivalent.

I don't think the standard has to be giving up nothing that the Braves will end up missing. I don't have a problem with giving up real prospects if the Braves are already close and are pushing their chips into the middle.

But they are not close right now and I don't see how they could conclude the time is right to push their chips into the middle.

It makes sense that they wait and see what they really have with their young pitching and position players. Surround them with modest acquisitions and try and win as many as you can, but no reason to to acquire a #1 or #2 starter if the rest of the rotation is dismal.

[bravesfanMatt]

Normally aces come from legit pitching prospects. The Braves have/had these. Maybe at some point we stop blaming the pitchers and start blaming who develops them.

[Enscheff]

The Braves have acquired a lot of pitching talent, but very few who had true TOR potential. Folty, Newk, Gohara, Wright and maybe Touki. They were only able to acquire all but Wright because there were already questions about each guy. They were extremely fortunate to have Wright fall in their laps.

The Braves should consider themselves lucky that 1 of those “TOR prospects with major questions” looks to have panned out.

The Braves have already poured resources into pitchers. It would be silly to pour even more into pitching while the offense is below average.

The rebuild is going to live or die based on how the group of 20 arms they acquired over the last 3 years shake out. If they get 2 TOR guys and a couple more MOR guys they will be just fine. So far it looks like they hit in Gohara as a TOR guy, and Soroka is a pretty good bet to be a MOR guy.

[Super]

and yet, plenty of times a guy no one thought had "ace potential" becomes a really good pitcher. and a guy who definitely had "ace potential" doesn't develop.

[Heyward]

Looking ahead would you give Kimbrel 3 years, 60 million with a vesting option?

It would be through his age 30-33 seasons. Might decline by then though so who knows.

[clvclv]

Looking ahead would you give Kimbrel 3 years, 60 million with a vesting option?

It would be through his age 30-33 seasons. Might decline by then though so who knows.

Definitely looks like that's where these contracts (even for the best guys) are headed - 3 years with higher AAVs so the teams aren't stuck with that 4th (or worse 5th) year.

[Skeeter31]

Looking ahead would you give Kimbrel 3 years, 60 million with a vesting option?

It would be through his age 30-33 seasons. Might decline by then though so who knows.

Absolutely not. Love him. One of my favorite Braves players. But not worth that amount of money for someone who pitches 1 inning a game, maybe 3 times a week.

[thewupk]

Looking ahead would you give Kimbrel 3 years, 60 million with a vesting option?

It would be through his age 30-33 seasons. Might decline by then though so who knows.

Without any injuries or decline I doubt he accepts 3 years. He's going to want a longer contract at that age.

[Enscheff]

Without any injuries or decline I doubt he accepts 3 years. He's going to want a longer contract at that age.

A 3 year offer to Kimbrel won’t even get a return phone call.

[thewupk]

A 3 year offer to Kimbrel won’t even get a return phone call.

Unless its a ridiculous amount of money per year. And 20 won't be that number. Chapman just signed for 17-18 per year for 5 years

[Enscheff]

Unless its a ridiculous amount of money per year. And 20 won't be that number. Chapman just signed for 17-18 per year for 5 years

Jansen money will be the starting point for the bidding on Kimbrel.

[jpx7]

Unless its a ridiculous amount of money per year. And 20 won't be that number. Chapman just signed for 17-18 per year for 5 years

Since he'll likely be angling for his last big contract, I'm thinking 3/$90 would have to be the (obscene) range?

[thewupk]

Since he'll likely be angling for his last big contract, I'm thinking 3/$90 would have to be the (obscene) range?

More than likely. Otherwise I think he gets something around 5/100.

Closers have always been an absurd overpay on the market that only the big money or dumb teams participate in.

[Enscheff]

5 years for Kimbrel is far more likely than $30M AAV.

Jansen got 5/80 with an opt out after year 3. That is the starting point for Kimbrel negotiations, and teams will bid up from there. I imagine 5/100 is in play as a reasonable guess, especially if he doesn’t get an opt out.

He will get 5 years, and he will beat the $17.3M AAV Davis just got. That means 5/90 is likely the lowest contract he can be reasonably projected to sign...barring injury, of course.

[nsacpi]

5 years for Kimbrel is far more likely than $30M AAV.

Jansen got 5/80 with an opt out after year 3. That is the starting point for Kimbrel negotiations, and teams will bid up from there. I imagine 5/100 is in play as a reasonable guess, especially if he doesn’t get an opt out.

He will get 5 years, and he will beat the $17.3M AAV Davis just got. That means 5/90 is likely the lowest contract he can be reasonably projected to sign...barring injury, of course.

And it will be stupid of the Braves to get involved.

[Tapate50]

And it will be stupid of the Braves to get involved.

Think stupid is an understatement

[jimsnores]

Think stupid is an understatement

Replace stupid with futile.

[thethe]

At what price would it make sense for the Braves? Lets assume a scenario where Kimbrel has desires to pitch back at home. What AAV over 4 years would make sense? 15?

[Skeeter31]

At what price would it make sense for the Braves? Lets assume a scenario where Kimbrel has desires to pitch back at home. What AAV over 4 years would make sense? 15?

None. The Braves should be in no way interested in signing Kimbrel. Too much money on a luxury position. Give Minter a shot. If not start trying out the failed starters in that role.

[thethe]

None. The Braves should be in no way interested in signing Kimbrel. Too much money on a luxury position. Give Minter a shot. If not start trying out the failed starters in that role.

Its all about value. Would Kimbrels production over 4 years be worth a 60-70M investment? I think an argument for that could be made.

Not saying this is what I'd like to do because I do believe we have a pipeline of pitching that could be high leverage bullpen arms (Minter/Lindgren/Touki/Weigel/etc...) but it shouldn't be something that is ruled out if the price is right.

[thewupk]

Its all about value. Would Kimbrels production over 4 years be worth a 60-70M investment? I think an argument for that could be made.

Not saying this is what I'd like to do because I do believe we have a pipeline of pitching that could be high leverage bullpen arms (Minter/Lindgren/Touki/Weigel/etc...) but it shouldn't be something that is ruled out if the price is right.

Yes his production would be worth 60 million over 4 years. But that's fantasy land for what he will sign for.

[thethe]

Yes his production would be worth 60 million over 4 years. But that's fantasy land for what he will sign for.

You'll end up being right but I would be interested to know if the chatter is true and he is motivated to pitch back at home.

[Russ2dollas]

Kimbrel is old. Do not pay for an old closer

We have minter Newcombe wiegel etc who could be very good for cheap.

If the braves can put 60 million plus in a closer then they should take that money and roll it into harpers 400 plus million

[Chico]

I don’t see us going after Kimbrel at any price. Prices for relievers are getting out of hand. If I were AA I’d be looking at the relievers being ignored next offseason as it is deep.

[Tapate50]

Because there is a huge crop of high end FA players next offseason, what is Machado likely to get or does it depend a ton on his 2018?

He hits FA at a very young age.

[Enscheff]

Because there is a huge crop of high end FA players next offseason, what is Machado likely to get or does it depend a ton on his 2018?

He hits FA at a very young age.

Machado is going to get upwards of $400M total with 1 or more opt out. He is not a plausible target for the Braves.

[Southcack77]

Machado is going to get upwards of $400M total with 1 or more opt out. He is not a plausible target for the Braves.


I'm not saying they are even going to try with Machado, but he is one of the few mega contracts I could see making sense for Atlanta.

So much prime covered by the deal and he should be playable defensively for just about any contract length.

[Enscheff]

I'm not saying they are even going to try with Machado, but he is one of the few mega contracts I could see making sense for Atlanta.

So much prime covered by the deal and he should be playable defensively for just about any contract length.

Does it make sense that the Yankees and Dodgers have bent over backwards to reset their luxury tax penalties and will then be outbid by a mid-market team on the most valuable players to hit FA since...ARod?

Not to mention the Phils have waaaay more money than the Braves with almost zero payroll spent.

[Southcack77]

Does it make sense that the Yankees and Dodgers have bent over backwards to reset their luxury tax penalties and will then be outbid by a mid-market team on the most valuable players to hit FA since...ARod?

Not to mention the Phils have waaaay more money than the Braves with almost zero payroll spent.

just saying -- if the Braves were interesting in going out and paying market value for a franchise player, I think he's about as good a choice as I could see.

I agree it is highly unlikely that the market will allow Atlanta to sign him to anything within their pain threshold.