Debbie Downer maybe but I just don't see the optimism

[Horsehide Harry]

Didn't want to put this in the ST thread because some baseball is better than no baseball, however, I just can't get excited about the 2018 Braves.

Sure you can put the TheThe spin on and look on the bright side. More power to those who can do that.

I guess I'm just more critical.

But the team in 2018 isn't markedly better than the 2017 team was and arguably a significant amount worse.

First, look at the offense. The hope is that Albies, Swanson, Camargo and eventually Acuna will begin to grow up and be big contributors on the offensive side. They better. Because the departure of Phillips, Kemp and MAdams, means they lose 50 HR and 70 2B, all guys with an OPS of at least .752. Add in the expected decline of Markakis and the catching platoon and, even with a full season of Freeman, the offense looks to be no better than it was last year and possibly considerably worse. The talent flow was all one way from an offense standpoint in the offseason.

The defense almost certainly will be better. Hopefully Swanson will start justifying his rep. Albies will likely be as good or better than an aging Phillips. The Camargo/Ruiz platoon likely can't be any worse than Garcia. Freddie and Inciarte will likely be themselves. Catching will probably take a step back and RF almost certainly will. LAdams, as bad as he is in LF, will be better defensively than Kemp but will still likely be bad until Acuna can arrive.

The SP is almost entirely relying on the blossoming of the young kids. Bottom line, they can't struggle but probably will.

The addition of McCarthy and Kazmir likely will be a net minus when compared with the presence of 2017 Dickey and Garcia. You have to hope that Kazmir isn't Colon. Let's hope Teheran bounces back but if he FB continues to decline...

In the pen, it looks to me that untried youth is replacing aging veterans. But, outside of Minter, the hope for a real difference maker looks pretty bleak.

The bench looks like a horrid wasteland of journeymen never-was guys who aren't particularly good at anything but make up for it by being bad offensive players.

And, finally, the minor leagues. Acuna will certainly arrive soon and be a help. Riley, Jackson and Demeritte all are the closest and all likely need at least another year. There's more pitching closer BUT if the offense is as bad as it looks like it will be you have to ask yourself is it worthwhile to burn service time.

Just trying to keep it real...

[thewupk]

The optimism is going to see how our young position players develop. It's a punt year so I'm not expecting the team to win much.

[BeanieAntics]

Yeah I don't really care if we win 70 games or win 80 games, as long as we see the young players develop and show some future potential. I fully expect us to be non-competitive this season so it doesn't bother me if we look unproven. The talent is obviously there and this season should be used to evaluate that talent

[thewupk]

And with that said I see likely overall improvement at 3B, SS, and 2B this year. Likely RF as well once Acuna is up. The only position I see significant regression at is catcher.

[Hudson2]

This year will be super fun as far as watching how our players progress. Acuna will make it a ton more exciting alone. This is the year that means so much bc it will set up our future moving forward. We’ll know all we need to know about Riley and if he’s the answer at 3b and what we really have in Wright, Soroka, Allard, Touki, and Anderson among others. It’ll let AA know what he needs to do in the offseason to make us a playoff contender for next year and the next 5 after that.

[thethe]

And with that said I see likely overall improvement at 3B, SS, and 2B this year. Likely RF as well once Acuna is up. The only position I see significant regression at is catcher.

Starting pitching will improve as well considering we had so much suck from Colon.

[nsacpi]

Thematically, 2018 versus 2017 is a case of unproven youth replacing aging veterans. From that it does not necessarily follow that the W-L will improve.

But looking at a position by position comparison:

Catcher--same personnel but will likely get less in 2018

First--Freddie missed time in 2017, so likely we will get more in 2018

2nd--Albies > Phillips

SS--Same player but will probably get more in 2018

3rd--was very poor in 2017...will probably get more in 2018

LF--Acuna > Kemp

CF--push

RF--push

So likely get more at five positions, less at one

Now to the pitching:

Teheran--probably more in 2018

Folty--probably more in 2018

Newcomb--probably more than from Newcomb/Colon in 2017

Gohara--push with Garcia

McCarthy--push with Dickey

Pen--I'm mildly optimistic, but lets say a push

So improvement at three starting pitching spots.

Bottom line. Likely to improve

Bottom bottom line: 80 win team even without fantasy signing of Moose to play third.

[thewupk]

Starting pitching will improve as well considering we had so much suck from Colon.

Yeah he was bad

[thethe]

Thematically, 2018 versus 2017 is a case of untried youth replacing aging veterans. From that it does not necessarily follow that the W-L will improve.

But looking at a position by position comparison:

Catcher--same personnel but will likely get less in 2018

First--Freddie missed time in 2017, so likely we will get more in 2018

2nd--Albies > Phillips

SS--Same player but will probably get more in 2018

3rd--was very poor in 2017...will probably get more in 2018

LF--Acuna > Kemp

CF--push

RF--push

So likely get more at five positions, less at one

Now to the pitching:

Teheran--probably more in 2018

Folty--probably more in 2018

Newcomb--probably more than from Newcomb/Colon in 2017

Gohara--push with Garcia

McCarthy--push with Dickey

Pen--I'm mildly optimistic, but lets say a push

So improvement a three starting pitching spots.

Bottom line. Likely to improve

Bottom bottom line: 80 win team even with fantasy signing of Moose to play third.

Agree with all of this aside from Gohara vs. Garcia. I think Gohara is ready to produce more than that.

I think we are mid 80's this year depending on if Freeman can be healthy for a whole season.

[thewupk]

Agree with all of this aside from Gohara vs. Garcia. I think Gohara is ready to produce more than that.

I think we are mid 80's this year depending on if Freeman can be healthy for a whole season.

A 10+ win swing is hard to see unless the young kids all step up.

[thethe]

A 10+ win swing is hard to see unless the young kids all step up.

I'd prefer to look at it by position. When you say 10+ win on the whole I agree it seems hard. Then you look into the details:

C - Push (maybe -.5)
1B - More +.5 (Due to the hope he plays more)
2B - More +2 (Yes I'm rather bullish on Albies)
SS - More +1 (Can he be that bad again?)
3B - More +1.5 (We all konw how I feel about Camargo)
RF - More +1.5 (Acuna to take over early)
CF - Less -.5 (I have a feeling we are going to see some decline in Ender)
RF - More .5 (Defense and Markakis moving over)

Thats six more wins from position players

Teheran + .5
Folty +.5
Newc +1
Gohara +2
McCarthy +1

Bullpen - Push only because its impossible to project this
Bench - Push for same reason as bullpen

[nsacpi]

A 10+ win swing is hard to see unless the young kids all step up.

you forgot thethethe premium...that's worth...a lot!

[thethe]

you forgot thethethe premium...that's worth...a lot!

So many "the's"

[nsacpi]

So many "the's"

its all gonna come together in a yuge way...Braves all the way!

[thewupk]

I'd prefer to look at it by position. When you say 10+ win on the whole I agree it seems hard. Then you look into the details:

C - Push (maybe -.5)
1B - More +.5 (Due to the hope he plays more)
2B - More +2 (Yes I'm rather bullish on Albies)
SS - More +1 (Can he be that bad again?)
3B - More +1.5 (We all konw how I feel about Camargo)
RF - More +1.5 (Acuna to take over early)
CF - Less -.5 (I have a feeling we are going to see some decline in Ender)
RF - More .5 (Defense and Markakis moving over)

Thats six more wins from position players

Teheran + .5
Folty +.5
Newc +1
Gohara +2
McCarthy +1

Bullpen - Push only because its impossible to project this
Bench - Push for same reason as bullpen

I think expecting an increase at all position players and starters but 2 is asking a little much. But that would qualify as the young players stepping up.

[bravesfanMatt]

How the hell can HH not be optimistic about this season. If we win he can be a fan. If we suck he can continue to post FF trade ideas. Win freaking win for him.

[thethe]

I think expecting an increase at all position players and starters but 2 is asking a little much. But that would qualify as the young players stepping up.

You're probably right but they are all on the right side of 27 to show improvement and we had some real awful guys in a lot of these positions last year so an improvement wouldn't be a huge shock IMO.

[nsacpi]

How the hell can HH not be optimistic about this season.

cuz there is a fixed amount of optimism in the world and thethe got more than his share

[nsacpi]

I'd prefer to look at it by position. When you say 10+ win on the whole I agree it seems hard. Then you look into the details:

C - Push (maybe -.5)
1B - More +.5 (Due to the hope he plays more)
2B - More +2 (Yes I'm rather bullish on Albies)
SS - More +1 (Can he be that bad again?)
3B - More +1.5 (We all konw how I feel about Camargo)
RF - More +1.5 (Acuna to take over early)
CF - Less -.5 (I have a feeling we are going to see some decline in Ender)
RF - More .5 (Defense and Markakis moving over)

Thats six more wins from position players

Teheran + .5
Folty +.5
Newc +1
Gohara +2
McCarthy +1

Bullpen - Push only because its impossible to project this
Bench - Push for same reason as bullpen

there are a couple areas I would flag as overoptimistic...the decline at catcher could be larger...we got incredible production from Flowers/Suzuki last year...also Gohara/McCarthy being +3 over Garcia/Dickey looks a bit much

[Southcack77]

Are any projections showing the Braves as likely to be worse?

Still, I don't expect a whole lot from them as things stand now. I would predict another rebuilding year with hopefully some sell offs near the deadline of veterans.

Which is fine with me.

[thethe]

there are a couple areas I would flag as overoptimistic...the decline at catcher could be larger...we got incredible production from Flowers/Suzuki last year...also Gohara/McCarthy being +3 over Garcia/Dickey looks a bit much

Did we even get 2.5 wins from them last year? I can't get Garcias numbers for us.

I personally think that Gohara will be around 3.5 next year. He is just that good. This is without further developing is changeup. If that got better then all bets are off. You could be looking at a 5 win pitcher.

McCarthy needs to stay healthy and thats the big question but his pacing makes me feel comfortable about giving him around 2. I'm going to assume worse rate production but better health.

Good point on the catcher performance. Last year was really special.

[cajunrevenge]

Baseball is a funny sport. Teams with good young talent like this always have a chance to catch lightning in a bottle. Just as many players struggle when coming up to the majors some have fluky good performance. Soroka could get Cy Young votes this year and never do much of anything the rest of his career. Not every player has to be good for a long period of time to be of value. I always enjoy watching the young players coming up in the majors so 2018 should be fun to watch unless they all crap the bed. I am really happy the way the team is set up for the future now that we got rid of Kemp, didnt trade the farm to win sooner, and avoided bloated free agent contracts. We might not win this year but we are set up really well for the future. Maybe all we need this year is to be good enough to lure some big free agents like Machado.

[nsacpi]

Did we even get 2.5 wins from them last year? I can't get Garcias numbers for us.

I personally think that Gohara will be around 3.5 next year. He is just that good. This is without further developing is changeup. If that got better then all bets are off. You could be looking at a 5 win pitcher.

McCarthy needs to stay healthy and thats the big question but his pacing makes me feel comfortable about giving him around 2. I'm going to assume worse rate production but better health.

Good point on the catcher performance. Last year was really special.

For the season as a whole Garcia was 2 wins. Flowers/Suzuki were 4.2 combined

[Enscheff]

There was never really any reason to be excited about winning in 2018.

The excitement comes from watching the development of all the young guys.

If you can't get excited about watching Swanson, Albies and Acuna prove themselves over 500+ PAs, or watching Gohara and Newk try to prove themselves over 15+ starts, or the prospect of seeing Soroka and Wright make their debuts...you won't be excited for another 1-2 years.

[nsacpi]

I also like the fact we will have some very good starting pitching depth in AAA. Fried, Sims, Allard and Soroka will likely start the season there and I would expect a couple of them to make a significant number of major league starts.

[thewupk]

For the season as a whole Garcia was 2 wins. Flowers/Suzuki were 4.2 combined

That's without the +2 wins from pitch framing if you are a believer in that.

[Hawk]

The optimism is going to see how our young position players develop.

"Absolutely!" - Hawk, 2015
"Yes!" - Hawk, 2016
"Of course." - Hawk, 2017
"**** it." - Hawk, 2018

[nsacpi]

That's without the +2 wins from pitch framing if you are a believer in that.

Well, I'm assuming the add from framing won't change much. It is the career year hitting that will likely regress.

[nsacpi]

"Absolutely!" - Hawk, 2015
"Yes!" - Hawk, 2016
"Of course." - Hawk, 2017
"**** it." - Hawk, 2018

We gonna be fun to dance with.

[thewupk]

Well, I'm assuming the add from framing won't change much. It is the career year hitting that will likely regress.

It may not. But catchers have been known to tail off pretty quickly in that dept for whatever reason.

[thethe]

It may not. But catchers have been known to tail off pretty quickly in that dept for whatever reason.

Our flower is still in bloom. We are goooooooood

[Horsehide Harry]

My post is about the Team and its prospects overall.

Of course it will be exciting to see how/if the young guys develop. But, you play to win the game. And, all the deck chair moving over the last four years really hasn't brought the Team much closer to being relevant and potentially they are further away.

The offense is going to stink. No doubt in my mind about that.

[nsacpi]

My post is about the Team and its prospects overall.

Of course it will be exciting to see how/if the young guys develop. But, you play to win the game. And, all the deck chair moving over the last four years really hasn't brought the Team much closer to being relevant and potentially they are further away.

The offense is going to stink. No doubt in my mind about that.

2019 is the year the toast will be ready to be taken out of the toaster

[Horsehide Harry]

2019 is the year the toast will be ready to be taken out of the toaster

Let's hope so.

My fear is that former management subscribed to the leaky boat form of rebuilding: hole appears, bail, bail, bail, plug hole. Two holes appear - bail, bail, bail, bail plug hole, plug hol..another hole appears, and repeat until the boat sinks.

[nsacpi]

Let's hope so.

My fear is that former management subscribed to the leaky boat form of rebuilding: hole appears, bail, bail, bail, plug hole. Two holes appear - bail, bail, bail, bail plug hole, plug hol..another hole appears, and repeat until the boat sinks.

sure there's been some of that...improv...can't be helped really...no plan survives contact with reality entirely intact...but you are right that there has been more making things up on the fly than was necessary

[CJ9]

I’m hoping for the young hitters to grow, young arms to impress in the big leagues, and ultimately lose a lot of games to get another high draft pick. Whether all of those can actually happen at the same time, I’m not sure.

[TheBravos]

If we aren’t making the playoffs...doesn’t matter. We might as well be bad.

[CyYoung31]

What optimism?

[mossy]

No Dickey, no Colon, no Kemp.

This year is about watching the kids play, and as long as there is progression from our young guys, I’m not all that concerned about our record.

Did I mention no Kemp?

[50PoundHead]

No Dickey, no Colon, no Kemp.

This year is about watching the kids play, and as long as there is progression from our young guys, I’m not all that concerned about our record.

Did I mention no Kemp?

Obviously more leftovers on the post-game spread.

[nsacpi]

Obviously more leftovers on the post-game spread.

Gohara will have to step up to the plate

[thewupk]

Gohara will have to step up to the plate

Let's not tempt the big fella

[zitothebrave]

The Braves are incredibly unlikely to win anything this year. As far as compared to last year there's a bit of a mix bag.

Address the changes

LF Acuna vs. Kemp - A push offensively. Kemp provided about league average offense I think Acuna probably starts from that point before evolving past. But I'm confident that Acuna will be a much better overall when defense is factored in and long term it isn't even gonna be close. Acuna could be better this year already but by the time he settles into the leaguehe'll soar past Kemp's Braves production.

2B Albies vs. Phillips. In his prime Phillips was a power bat, lately he's about a 10 HR per year guy. I think Ozzie can do that. I was concerned with Ozzie's power but as he moved up through the minors his power improved. He hit 6 homers in 244 PA and that is possibly out of the realm of the norm (meaning he may not be a 20 homer per year guy) but I don't think he'll struggle replacing Phillip's power. I think overall they'll be close in terms of offensive production, but while Phillips is a good defender, there's a chance Ozzie could be in Gold Glove contention.

That's gonna be it for the newbies. You mentioned Adams but Adams's added value came replacing Freeman. If Freeman plays 150 games anything we lost from Adams going away is wiped away 5 fold.

Let's look at each position vs. Last year

C - Flowers/Suzuki - Likely to be worst from last year. They played to career high seasons in their platoon. Hope they continue it but I wouldn't bet on it.
1B - Freeman - Health ultimately is the key. He may be a little down offensively per PA but if he's healthier he'll be a net gain in value for sure.
SS - Swanson - Gonna improve, expect an uptick in power, BABIP moving up to a marked improvement from a replacement level player to an above average player roughly
3B - Camargo/Ruiz - Finding the balance here will be key. one is likely to be an OK player. It probably is Camargo. Just a placeholder though. If we get a 1 WAR from 3B I'll be happy.
CF - Inciarte - Cannot imagine a dropoff here.
RF - Markakis - Now personally, from what I've seen, I'd stick Acuna in RF and Markaksi in LF so his limited range is not quite as breaking. Will the Braves be smart enough to do that? Who knows. But what I do know is Markakis is going down. What I would like to see is generally speaking Markakis has started off hot and chilled off after the AS break for us. So in the second half of the season I'd like to bring in Peterson and see what happens.

[Horsehide Harry]

So, how does everyone see the lineup setting up?

CF - Inciarte
2B - Albies
1B - Freeman
C - Flowers/Suzuki
RF - Markakis
3B - Camargo
SS - Swanson
LF - LAdams

That's about as mediocre a ML offensive lineup as you will see.

Of course, Acuna will likely be up quick. But where does he fit? 3rd with Freeman moving to clean up? Clean Up? 5th? 8th?

As it is the 2018 lineup is too LH. All the RH bats are unproven or old (C).

If things go right and Riley shows he's ready and Acuna is everything we hope then the 2019 line up will suddenly be too RH, although I think the balance will be better.

This is going to be an ugly offense.

[Southcack77]

I would bat Markakis 2nd probably. Any event, that is a pretty terrble lineup.

Inciarte
Markakis
Freeman
Flowers
Adams?
Swanson
Camargo
Albies?


Ugh.

[thewupk]

I would bat Markakis 2nd probably. Any event, that is a pretty terrble lineup.

Inciarte
Markakis
Freeman
Flowers
Adams?
Swanson
Camargo
Albies?


Ugh.

Opening day? Who knows. I suspect a month in and Albies will be hitting 2nd. Neck will continue to regress to a pretty looking average but nothing else to go with it hitter.

[Hudson2]

Yeah that lineup sucks. Once Acuna is up I’d go with this.

Inciarte
Albies
Freeman
Flowers
Markakis
Acuna
Swanson
Camargo

[nsacpi]

So, how does everyone see the lineup setting up?

CF - Inciarte
2B - Albies
1B - Freeman
C - Flowers/Suzuki
RF - Markakis
3B - Camargo
SS - Swanson
LF - LAdams

That's about as mediocre a ML offensive lineup as you will see.

Of course, Acuna will likely be up quick. But where does he fit? 3rd with Freeman moving to clean up? Clean Up? 5th? 8th?

As it is the 2018 lineup is too LH. All the RH bats are unproven or old (C).

If things go right and Riley shows he's ready and Acuna is everything we hope then the 2019 line up will suddenly be too RH, although I think the balance will be better.

This is going to be an ugly offense.

I think you have it pegged. Once Acuna comes in I think he will initially be slotted in the #6 spot behind Markakis.

I don't think the lineup is too LH. We have RH hitters at catcher, left (Acuna) and short. The two switch hitters (Albies and Camargo) are both stronger from the right side. Two of the three LH hitters (Freeman and Inciarte) hit lefties well. The only one who should occasionally be sat against left-handed pitching is Muk.

When we upgrade in left (with Acuna moving to right) and third, I think it makes sense that one is a lefty and one is a righty hitter. Or one is a switch hitter. It would not make sense to get two righty hitters or two lefty hitters.

[Southcack77]

Opening day? Who knows. I suspect a month in and Albies will be hitting 2nd. Neck will continue to regress to a pretty looking average but nothing else to go with it hitter.

He gets on base -- at least when we last saw him. That's his greatest talent at this point.

[thewupk]

He gets on base -- at least when we last saw him. That's his greatest talent at this point.

Still a below average hitter with poor speed. Albies will be a better fit even if he gets on base slightly less.

[Enscheff]

Based on 2018 projections, the lineup optimization tool says (4.453 runs per game):

Markakis
Freeman
Albies
Flowers
Acuna
Inciarte
Swanson
Camargo
Pitcher

There are many different lineups that produce 4.45+ runs per game. In general, they have:

- Marakis leading off due to his high OBP
- Freeman batting 2nd due to being the best overall hitter
- Albies, Flowers and Acuna in the 3-4-5 spots
- Inciarte and Swanson in the 6-7 spots
- Camargo batting 8th
- Pitcher batting 9th since the Braves don't have a decent OBP guy with zero power to bat 9th.

I like the optimized lineup. However, common sense tells us the Braves are not going to bat Freeman 2nd, and I think Swanson will handle being pitched around in the 8th slot better than Camargo. Therefore, my lineup would be:

Markakis
Albies
Freeman
Flowers
Acuna
Inciarte
Camargo
Swanson
Pitcher

But we all know Inciarte will lead off because he's "speedy" (despite his average sprint speed), and Markakis will once again be miscast as a middle of the order hitter and will bat 5th. The lineup WILL be:

Inciarte
Albies
Freeman
Flowers
Markakis
Acuna
Camargo
Swanson
Pitcher

[thethe]

Markakis continues to be undervalued. Statheads had it right initially. OBP is tremendously valuable and you know you'll get somewhere around .350 from him.

[thewupk]

Markakis continues to be undervalued. Statheads had it right initially. OBP is tremendously valuable and you know you'll get somewhere around .350 from him.

OBP is more valuable than it shows in OPS but let's not get excited here. Neck is a mid to high 90's WRC+ hitter. There is only so much you can do with that.

[nsacpi]

Based on 2018 projections, the lineup optimization tool says (4.453 runs per game):

Markakis
Freeman
Albies
Flowers
Acuna
Inciarte
Swanson
Camargo
Pitcher

There are many different lineups that produce 4.45+ runs per game. In general, they have:

- Marakis leading off due to his high OBP.
- Freeman batting 2nd due to being the best overall hitter.
- Albies, Flowers and Acuna in the 3-4-5 spots
- Inciarte and Swanson in the 6-7 spots
- Camargo batting 8th
- Pitcher batting 9th since the Braves don't have a decent OBP guy with zero power to bat 9th.

I like the optimized lineup. However, common sense tells us the Braves are not going to bat Freeman 2nd, and I think Swanson will handle being pitched around in the 8th slot better than Camargo. Therefore, my lineup would be:

Markakis
Albies
Freeman
Flowers
Acuna
Inciarte
Camargo
Swanson
Pitcher

But we all know Inciarte will lead off because he's "speedy" (despite his average sprint speed), and Markakis will once again be miscast as a middle of the order hitter and will bat 5th. The lineup WILL be:

Inciarte
Albies
Freeman
Flowers
Markakis
Acuna
Camargo
Swanson
Pitcher

The projection systems seem to break down a bit on Inciarte as we have discussed before. Steamer is projecting his OPS this season at .339, even though he has been at .350 and .351 the past two seasons.

In contract, Steamer projects Muk at .347. Similar to his .346 and .354 of the past two seasons.

It seems to me both Inciarte and Muk should be projected around .350. If you proceed from that, it makes sense to have Inciarte rather than Muk hit leadoff.

[Enscheff]

The projection systems seem to break down a bit on Inciarte as we have discussed before. Steamer is projecting his OPS this season at .339, even though he has been at .350 and .351 the past two seasons.

In contract, Steamer projects Muk at .347. Similar to his .346 and .354 of the past two seasons.

It seems to me both Inciarte and Muk should be projected around .350. If you proceed from that, it makes sense to have Inciarte rather than Muk hit leadoff.

I could certainly be convinced that Inciarte outperforming his xwOBA is a real skill set he possesses. He checks off all the criteria I've determined contribute to it (average or better speed, batting LHed, evenly spraying batted balls, low FB%).

If they are essentially equal hitters, and Inciarte is unquestionably the better base runner, I have no real issue with him leading off.

[nsacpi]

the big question is how Freddie will hit without his protector

[bravesfanMatt]

the big question is how Freddie will hit without his protector

Kemp cast a Yuge shadow. He protected him from SD before getting here. So it is safe to assume he can still protect him from LA.

[BeanieAntics]

The projection systems seem to break down a bit on Inciarte as we have discussed before. Steamer is projecting his OPS this season at .339, even though he has been at .350 and .351 the past two seasons.

In contract, Steamer projects Muk at .347. Similar to his .346 and .354 of the past two seasons.

It seems to me both Inciarte and Muk should be projected around .350. If you proceed from that, it makes sense to have Inciarte rather than Muk hit leadoff.

Holy crap, a .339 OPS would be the worst season in the history of baseball lol. I'm confident I could roll out there and post a .400+ OPS lol

[Enscheff]

Holy crap, a .339 OPS would be the worst season in the history of baseball lol. I'm confident I could roll out there and post a .400+ OPS lol

I'll take the under on your OPS!

I stepped in vs ~85 mph a few months ago at the age of 38. I have no idea how I ever handled 90+ mph in college 20 years ago haha.

I'm not sure I could even put a ball in play vs MLB pitching anymore. My OPS over 100 PAs would quite likely be .050-.100, all based on getting lucky enough to be walked or beaned at the league average walk rate of 8.5%.

[Horsehide Harry]

I'll take the under on your OPS!

I stepped in vs ~85 mph a few months ago at the age of 38. I have no idea how I ever handled 90+ mph in college 20 years ago haha.

I'm not sure I could even put a ball in play vs MLB pitching anymore. My OPS over 100 PAs would quite likely be .050-.100, all based on getting lucky enough to be walked or beaned at the league average walk rate of 8.5%.

Enscheff steps in at the plate....

CLVCLV steps in to throw.....

Enscheff - take your base, don't charge the mound

[Enscheff]

Enscheff steps in at the plate....

CLVCLV steps in to throw.....

Enscheff - take your base, don't charge the mound

I'm confident he can't throw a baseball hard enough to worry about haha.

[zitothebrave]

Markakis continues to be undervalued. Statheads had it right initially. OBP is tremendously valuable and you know you'll get somewhere around .350 from him.

If Markakis was a plus defender he would be valuable. But he's not we know that. He's a negative defender and as a RF a negative hitter. RF, LF and 1B are the most offensive first positions. If you aren't a plus bat you're typically a minus value there. And you can't argue that Marakis is a plus bat. He's a decent bat, an acceptable bat, but not plus. Markakis if he was playing Shortstop with this stat line or 2B or especially catcher would be hella awesome. But position scarcity exists for a reason. It's a lot easier to play the corner OF than pretty much any other position in baseball.

[zitothebrave]

When we upgrade in left (with Acuna moving to right) and third, I think it makes sense that one is a lefty and one is a righty hitter. Or one is a switch hitter. It would not make sense to get two righty hitters or two lefty hitters.

I think we should just focus on gettting the best possible value there regardless of how they hit. The Phillies won it all with Howard and Utley as their best players, yes they had right handed bats to counter them (Werth being the best) but they were the 3/4 hitters for Philly all through their peak. And Howard couldn't hit a lefty if he tried.

[nsacpi]

bump to discuss

[nsacpi]

Baseball is a funny sport. Teams with good young talent like this always have a chance to catch lightning in a bottle. Just as many players struggle when coming up to the majors some have fluky good performance. Soroka could get Cy Young votes this year and never do much of anything the rest of his career. Not every player has to be good for a long period of time to be of value. I always enjoy watching the young players coming up in the majors so 2018 should be fun to watch unless they all crap the bed. I am really happy the way the team is set up for the future now that we got rid of Kemp, didnt trade the farm to win sooner, and avoided bloated free agent contracts. We might not win this year but we are set up really well for the future. Maybe all we need this year is to be good enough to lure some big free agents like Machado.

a prescient post

[The Chosen One]

bump to discuss

Possible thread of the year front-runner already.

[The Chosen One]

Yeah that lineup sucks. Once Acuna is up I’d go with this.

Inciarte
Albies
Freeman
Flowers
Markakis
Acuna
Swanson
Camargo

This lineup aged well.

[nsacpi]

Thematically, 2018 versus 2017 is a case of unproven youth replacing aging veterans. From that it does not necessarily follow that the W-L will improve.

But looking at a position by position comparison:

Catcher--same personnel but will likely get less in 2018

First--Freddie missed time in 2017, so likely we will get more in 2018

2nd--Albies > Phillips

SS--Same player but will probably get more in 2018

3rd--was very poor in 2017...will probably get more in 2018

LF--Acuna > Kemp

CF--push

RF--push

So likely get more at five positions, less at one

Now to the pitching:

Teheran--probably more in 2018

Folty--probably more in 2018

Newcomb--probably more than from Newcomb/Colon in 2017

Gohara--push with Garcia

McCarthy--push with Dickey

Pen--I'm mildly optimistic, but lets say a push

So improvement at three starting pitching spots.

Bottom line. Likely to improve

Bottom bottom line: 80 win team even without fantasy signing of Moose to play third.

I think the positions where we got positive surprises relative to my preseason expectation were left, right and third...Folty also improved a bit more than I expected...those were the major positive surprises...but we also got quite a few other small positive surprises...sum total is a team that outperforms by about 10 games

[The Chosen One]

Folty giving a lot of credit for his progression to his newborn child. This, like BiLe, is something we can't always quantify properly. Need Newk and Gohara to have kids too if we're gonna keep them.

[nsacpi]

pen was 1.0 WAR last year and 3.2 so far this year...a lot little things added up to the team making the jump forward

[Horsehide Harry]

Glad to be wrong. The young guys really stepped up in a big way and Markakis found the fountain of youth, at least for 2018.

The biggest surprises to me was the development of Folty and to a certain extent Newk (at least early), the near MVP level play by Acuna out of the gate, the power shown by Albies and most of all the play of Camargo.

Obviously, I didn't see the 2018 of Markakis or the catchers and even Teheran outplayed where I thought he would be.

Fantastic year, especially after much needed rebuilding down years....

[nsacpi]

Glad to be wrong. The young guys really stepped up in a big way and Markakis found the fountain of youth, at least for 2018.

The biggest surprises to me was the development of Folty and to a certain extent Newk (at least early), the near MVP level play by Acuna out of the gate, the power shown by Albies and most of all the play of Camargo.

Obviously, I didn't see the 2018 of Markakis or the catchers and even Teheran outplayed where I thought he would be.

Fantastic year, especially after much needed rebuilding down years....

from a longer term perspective I think one of the things we saw this year is how hard it is to project power in young hitters...none of Albies, Acuna or Camargo projected to hit for the kind of power they have shown this year

moral: in drafting and signing amateur talent give a lot more weight to the hit tool and defense than the power tool because the latter is very dicey to project