Crowdsourcing help re Mets

[nsacpi]

A young man I know is interviewing with the Mets front office. The question is how would you approach the 2018-2019 off-season if you were running the Mets.

Any thoughts.

I know this verges on treason, but please overlook that aspect.

[thethe]

So much depends on the performance of Harvey and matz this year that's it's hard to say. The pendulum can swing from ready to win a world series to needing a complete tear down.

[msstate7]

I would trade deGrom for Markakis.

[nsacpi]

To me DeGrom and Syndegaard are the two most special players they have. So I would focus on pros and cons of extenting them. Those two give the Mets a punchers chance in any short series. So it is worth it for them to fight for an extra win or two just to make the wild card.

[nsacpi]

I would trade deGrom for Markakis.

any shrimp thoughts

[50PoundHead]

I would suggest he say that Bernie Madoff has some great investment ideas and that Omar Minaya was the greatest GM in the history of the game.

[thethe]

To me DeGrom and Syndegaard are the two most special players they have. So I would focus on pros and cons of extenting them. Those two give the Mets a punchers chance in any short series. So it is worth it for them to fight for an extra win or two just to make the wild card.

That's the thing though. If you can add another special pitcher to that mix they are world series ccontenders immediately. Conforto if he can stay on the field has the feel of a 4-6 win player. His bat is special.

Other than that they don't have much long term at the major league level. Rosario hit in the minors but was over matched in his first action and from the looks of it the mets are not in love with smith and that may have to do with off the field issues.

[nsacpi]

That's the thing though. If you can add another special pitcher to that mix they are world series ccontenders immediately. Conforto if he can stay on the field has the feel of a 4-6 win player. His bat is special.

Other than that they don't have much long term at the major league level. Rosario hit in the minors but was over matched in his first action and from the looks of it the mets are not in love with smith and that may have to do with off the field issues.

I think Smith is one to focus on...what they do next offseason will turn in part on how he develops

[Enscheff]

First step he needs to do is figure out the guaranteed money on the books for 2019, and then get arbitration projections for everyone else. That data can be found at Cots or BRef, and he will have to look up some comps to understand roughly how the arbitration guys will be paid. Do NOT say PlayerA will make ~$3M...say PlayerA will make $2.76M-$3.21M, and be ready to show the comps that allowed him to arrive at those values. Arb is all about comps to other similar players, so go find those players.

Next step will be to project WAR values for every player. He can slurp that info from FG, but if he has the skills to code up a projection system, this is where he can shine in the eyes of a FO. If he can write a full stack piece of software (meaning UI to back-end to database), he will be showing a full range of skills. When I am evaluating a software guy, I look less at the languages/tools he uses (Python vs C#, Java vs ASPX, SQL vs NoSQL, Unity vs Unreal, etc) and more for the skills to properly architect a solution. A good software guy can pick up a new language or tool set very quickly.

Third step will be to comb through info about other teams to find potential trade targets. For example, the Tigers will be trading Fulmer. The Braves may want to add a TOR pitcher. Identify teams that match up in trades (either during a rebuild or a build up), and then identify players from those teams the Mets could target. Unless he has played at a high level, his eyeball test scouting opinion based on watching games on Fox Sports NY will carry zero weight. He should present a list of potential targets so the guys with skill in evaluating these players can focus on them.

Once he has the projected payroll, the projected production from all the controlled players, a list of available FAs, a list of potential trade targets, and the Mets likely payroll cap (around $130M-$150M), he can start to build a plan. I would suggest building 2-3 plans, a "win-now" plan, a "sustained winning plan", and a long term "rebuild plan". Be ready to justify all decisions with data based on things like aging curves and surplus value.

The final thing I would do is try to come up with something "new". Everything mentioned above is just collecting data from other sources. If he can identify something that nobody has yet in the public sphere, he will show he can innovate. For example, determining Fried needs to throw a 2-seamer, suggesting Yandy Diaz is a prime launch angle adjustment candidate, or the correlations I found between xwOBA-xOBA to speed/handedness/spray skills are the kinds of things I would try to highlight if I were interviewing with the Braves.

[Enscheff]

That's the thing though. If you can add another special pitcher to that mix they are world series ccontenders immediately. Conforto if he can stay on the field has the feel of a 4-6 win player. His bat is special.

Other than that they don't have much long term at the major league level. Rosario hit in the minors but was over matched in his first action and from the looks of it the mets are not in love with smith and that may have to do with off the field issues.

This is the exact kind of presentation that will get him laughed out of an interview. It's all subjective from someone with zero experience evaluating players, so their subjective opinion holds zero weight.

If he goes in there and says, "I just think soandso is special" he will not get the job. FOs do not operate that way anymore.

[Carp]

I imagine next year's starting pitching market to be hot considering the dearth of quality FA pitchers available. The best pitcher available is Gio, and after him, it's gets pretty icky. Basically a bunch of guys who were good 3 years ago, but have seen injuries and age take their toll.

With that being said, I would capitalize on this markey by making Snydergaard available, but I would try to send him to an AL team. They should be able to get back AT LEAST as much as Sale brought back, if not more. A deal to the Red Sox centered around Groome and Jackie Bradley Jr would be something I would push for.

Next, I would sign Yasmani Grandal to a 4 year deal valued at 20 million per year.

[nsacpi]

This is the exact kind of presentation that will get him laughed out of an interview. It's all subjective from someone with zero experience evaluating players, so their subjective opinion holds zero weight.

If he goes in there and says, "I just think soandso is special" he will not get the job. FOs do not operate that way anymore.

Hey...you're the guy I wanted some ideas from...also it seems the question is a bit broader in the sense that it wants an analysis of what the 2018 off-season implies for how the market might go next year...this is a big question I think all teams are grappling with

[nsacpi]

There is a second question which is much more technical. It has a spreadsheet of spin rates, velocity and movement and wants a "creative" analysis.

Gives some insight into how teams think these days.

[nsacpi]

First step he needs to do is figure out the guaranteed money on the books for 2019, and then get arbitration projections for everyone else. That data can be found at Cots or BRef, and he will have to look up some comps to understand roughly how the arbitration guys will be paid. Do NOT say PlayerA will make ~$3M...say PlayerA will make $2.76M-$3.21M, and be ready to show the comps that allowed him to arrive at those values. Arb is all about comps to other similar players, so go find those players.

Next step will be to project WAR values for every player. He can slurp that info from FG, but if he has the skills to code up a projection system, this is where he can shine in the eyes of a FO. If he can write a full stack piece of software (meaning UI to back-end to database), he will be showing a full range of skills. When I am evaluating a software guy, I look less at the languages/tools he uses (Python vs C#, Java vs ASPX, SQL vs NoSQL, Unity vs Unreal, etc) and more for the skills to properly architect a solution. A good software guy can pick up a new language or tool set very quickly.

Third step will be to comb through info about other teams to find potential trade targets. For example, the Tigers will be trading Fulmer. The Braves may want to add a TOR pitcher. Identify teams that match up in trades (either during a rebuild or a build up), and then identify players from those teams the Mets could target. Unless he has played at a high level, his eyeball test scouting opinion based on watching games on Fox Sports NY will carry zero weight. He should present a list of potential targets so the guys with skill in evaluating these players can focus on them.

Once he has the projected payroll, the projected production from all the controlled players, a list of available FAs, a list of potential trade targets, and the Mets likely payroll cap (around $130M-$150M), he can start to build a plan. I would suggest building 2-3 plans, a "win-now" plan, a "sustained winning plan", and a long term "rebuild plan". Be ready to justify all decisions with data based on things like aging curves and surplus value.

The final thing I would do is try to come up with something "new". Everything mentioned above is just collecting data from other sources. If he can identify something that nobody has yet in the public sphere, he will show he can innovate. For example, determining Fried needs to throw a 2-seamer, suggesting Yandy Diaz is a prime launch angle adjustment candidate, or the correlations I found between xwOBA-xOBA to speed/handedness/spray skills are the kinds of things I would try to highlight if I were interviewing with the Braves.

fantastic...i will send this post to him

[nsacpi]

I imagine next year's starting pitching market to be hot considering the dearth of quality FA pitchers available. The best pitcher available is Gio, and after him, it's gets pretty icky. Basically a bunch of guys who were good 3 years ago, but have seen injuries and age take their toll.

With that being said, I would capitalize on this markey by making Snydergaard available, but I would try to send him to an AL team. They should be able to get back AT LEAST as much as Sale brought back, if not more. A deal to the Red Sox centered around Groome and Jackie Bradley Jr would be something I would push for.

Next, I would sign Yasmani Grandal to a 4 year deal valued at 20 million per year.

Trading Syndergaard is an outside the box idea for sure. I didn't consider it. But if you are right about the pitching market it might be worth doing an analysis of what he would bring.

[Enscheff]

There is a second question which is much more technical. It has a spreadsheet of spin rates, velocity and movement and wants a "creative" analysis.

Gives some insight into how teams think these days.

This is exactly the kind of thing I was talking about when I said come up with something "new". If the data is present, he can use vector math to determine spin components in the X/Y/Z planes.

If I had that data, personally, I would be looking at how guys with similar spin rates get different movements. I know it has to do with spin axis, but I would identify which pitchers are not getting as much movement as they should based on comparable spin rates. I would create a "spin efficiency" statistic to rank them. Then, I would suggest how guys with low spin efficiency could alter their spin axes (most likely by arm angle alterations).

Does he know what data is present in the spreadsheet? If so we can better assist in coming up with avenues to analyse it.

[bravesfanMatt]

Mods. We might want to lock this thread for a few hours. Need to give cheff sometime to cool down. We don’t want him to get too worked up over this topic.

[nsacpi]

This is exactly the kind of thing I was talking about when I said come up with something "new". If the data is present, he can use vector math to determine spin components in the X/Y/Z planes.

If I had that data, personally, I would be looking at how guys with similar spin rates get different movements. I know it has to do with spin axis, but I would identify which pitchers are not getting as much movement as they should based on comparable spin rates. I would create a "spin efficiency" statistic to rank them. Then, I would suggest how guys with low spin efficiency could alter their spin axes (most likely by arm angle alterations).

Does he know what data is present in the spreadsheet? If so we can better assist in coming up with avenues to analyse it.

The spreadsheet also has data on outcomes. How hard the ball was hit.

So I suggested a couple things:

1) Use all of this to generate a measure of when a pitcher is losing it.

2) I thought also it would be useful to look at consistency by inning (variance) of the different measures.

3) Look at whether the pitcher is able to step it up depending on the situation (runner in scoring position) or facing the other team's best hitter.

The data is basically for one game, both starting pitchers.

[Enscheff]

Mods. We might want to lock this thread for a few hours. Need to give cheff sometime to cool down. We don’t want him to get too worked up over this topic.

Hey, this is my last day at work before 10 days in FL/GA, and I have my plate completely cleared.

I'm free all day!

[nsacpi]

Does he know what data is present in the spreadsheet? If so we can better assist in coming up with avenues to analyse it.

He has the spreadsheet. What should I ask him.

[Enscheff]

The spreadsheet also has data on outcomes. How hard the ball was hit.

So I suggested a couple things:

1) Use all of this to generate a measure of when a pitcher is losing it.

2) I thought also it would be useful to look at consistency by inning (variance) of the different measures.

3) Look at whether the pitcher is able to step it up depending on the situation (runner in scoring position) or facing the other team's best hitter.

The data is basically for one game, both starting pitchers.

That is a very limited amount of data, but if it is detailed enough he could still do some interesting things. However, just having 1 game of data isn't enough to say "Syndergaard can only throw 90 pitches". It definitely isn't enough data to say "guys get hit hard after 22 batters" because there were only ~40 batters in the entire game.

I'm 100% positive the kid will be evaluated on the process he develops, not the actual results. Your idea for generating a stat to tell when a pitcher is tiring is excellent, but don't base it on outcomes because those are highly variable events. Make sure he can explain what that means, and why 1 game of data is too small of a sample to draw general rules from.

Base the measure on aspects of the individual pitches like velo and spin rate. If arm slot data is present, look for a guy losing consistency in his arm slot. If location data is available, look for guys getting wild (the data should be represented as distance from the center of the zone, so also look for the pitches missing over the middle of the plate, not just off the plate). Things like that.

I would be willing to bet the data given to him was chosen precisely because there is a nugget of info in there that proves something the Mets believe in from an overall philosophy standpoint. One or both pitchers will have demonstrated a decline in velo, spin, location, arm slot, or something else the Mets key on, making this particular set of data a good "example" in their eyes. I wouldn't be surprised if this particular data set showed the Mets handled the pitcher "correctly", while the other team didn't.

[nsacpi]

Now for the third and toughest question (hypothetical): If he has a choice between working for Novartis or the Mets which job should he take.

[nsacpi]

That is a very limited amount of data, but if it is detailed enough he could still do some interesting things. However, just having 1 game of data isn't enough to say "Syndergaard can only throw 90 pitches". It definitely isn't enough data to say "guys get hit hard after 22 batters" because there were only ~40 batters in the entire game.

I'm 100% positive the kid will be evaluated on the process he develops, not the actual results. Your idea for generating a stat to tell when a pitcher is tiring is excellent, but don't base it on outcomes because those are highly variable events. Make sure he can explain what that means, and why 1 game of data is too small of a sample to draw general rules from.

Base the measure on aspects of the individual pitches like velo and spin rate. If arm slot data is present, look for a guy losing consistency in his arm slot. If location data is availabkle, look for guys getting wild (the data should be represented as distance from the center of the zone, so also look for the pitches missing over the middle of the plate, not just off the plate). Things like that.

I would be willing to bet the data given to him was chosen precisely because there is a nugget of info in there that proves something the Mets believe in from an overall philosophy standpoint. One or both pitchers will have demonstrated a decline in velo, spin, location, arm slot, or something else the Mets key on, making this particular set of data a good "example" in their eyes. I wouldn't be surprised if this particular data set showed the Mets handled the pitcher "correctly", while the other team didn't.

I'm going to cut and paste your suggestions and forward to him. Thanks!!!

Btw the data is for two very good young but not yet elite starting pitchers. One a lefty and one a righty.

[msstate7]

I'm going to cut and paste your suggestions and forward to him. Thanks!!!

If he gets the job, will he hire enscheff as his assistant?

[nsacpi]

If he gets the job, will he hire enscheff as his assistant?

Enscheff will have game tickets anytime he is in NY.

[nsacpi]

Moving back to the Braves. I think Snit will have a lot more data and analysis of this kind in 2018 than he did in 2017. Now it will be up to him to make something of it.

[Enscheff]

I'm going to cut and paste your suggestions and forward to him. Thanks!!!

Btw the data is for two very good young but not yet elite starting pitchers. One a lefty and one a righty.

Also make sure he mentions the error associated with Statcast tracking. He should have error bars on his plots. I bet they won't be expecting that level of detail. Something like this is a good primer:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/baseballs-new-pitch-tracking-system-is-just-a-bit-outside/

He MUST reference his sources too. If he uses the Statcast error values from fivethirtyeight, make SURE he says he got them from fivethirtyeight. I would never hire a guy who I found out passed the work of others off as his own.

[nsacpi]

Also make sure he mentions the error associated with Statcast tracking. He should have error bars on his plots. I bet they won't be expecting that level os detail. Something like this is a good primer:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/baseballs-new-pitch-tracking-system-is-just-a-bit-outside/

He MUST reference his sources too. I would never hire a guy who I found out passed the work of others off as his own.

How should he refer to you?

[Enscheff]

Now for the third and toughest question (hypothetical): If he has a choice between working for Novartis or the Mets which job should he take.

LOL a job offer from Novartes will come with a pay 3x that of the what the Mets will be paying. He might not even be paid by the Mets at first if he's an intern.

MLB teams rely on the fact guys want to be part of MLB teams to get very talented people cheaply.

[Enscheff]

How should he refer to you?

I meant pulling data from places like FG, BRef, Cots or fivethirtyeight.

[nsacpi]

I meant pulling data from places like FG, BRef, Cots or fivethirtyeight.

come on man...i guess you don't do humor when you having your thinking cap on

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

How should he refer to you?
Formerly known as Randy Ventura’s Stolen Bases.

To the hypothetical: If he super loves baseball, Mets. If he needs/wants money, kinda super loves baseball but not totally, or is okay with working for big pharma, definitely Novartis

[nsacpi]

Formerly known as Randy Ventura’s Stolen Bases.

To the hypothetical: If he super loves baseball, Mets. If he needs/wants money, kinda super loves baseball but not totally, or is okay with working for big pharma, definitely Novartis

I'm pretty sure he'd go with the Mets.

[thethe]

Does anyone study the rate at which a ball moves on the x/y plane as opposed to total movement?

Differebtial equations could come in handy

[clvclv]

A young man I know is interviewing with the Mets front office. The question is how would you approach the 2018-2019 off-season if you were running the Mets.

Any thoughts.

I know this verges on treason, but please overlook that aspect.

Apply for another job???

[Enscheff]

Does anyone study the rate at which a ball moves on the x/y plane as opposed to total movement?

Differebtial equations could come in handy

Huh? First of all, baseball movement is referred to in the X (left/right) and Z (up/down) planes. The Y plane is measured as velocity towards home plate.

The magnus, frictional and gravitational forces on a thrown baseball are all constant, therefore the acceleration of the ball is constant throughout it's entire trajectory. There is no reason to derive anything beyond total movement.

Unless this kid has a degree in physics, I would suggest staying away from this topic and embarrassing himself. As tehteh just demonstrated, nothing looks worse than someone trying to talk about something outside the content of their brain pan. If he wants to learn about it though, Dr. Alan Nathan has written many excellent articles about the physics behind baseball movement.

[4maddux_cy's]

LOL a job offer from Novartes will come with a pay 3x that of the what the Mets will be paying. He might not even be paid by the Mets at first if he's an intern.

MLB teams rely on the fact guys want to be part of MLB teams to get very talented people cheaply.

Pretty much every major college and pro sports team does. And we get addicted to the work. :Wall:

[Enscheff]

Pretty much every major college and pro sports team does. And we get addicted to the work. :Wall:

Yeah, if I were coming out of college right now with D1 playing experience along with my physics and computer science degrees fresh off the presses, I would be looking to work one of those 7 day a week, 80 hours per week jobs for little to no pay in hopes of moving up in an MLB organization.

Unfortunately, those jobs didn't exist 15 years ago, and there's no way I could get into that now haha.

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

I'm pretty sure he'd go with the Mets.

To be fair, I would probably choose Mets too in his situation...if they weren’t the mortal enemy and all that. But I don’t have a degree in any of this, so that’s why I didn’t give advice. The stuff Enscheff said sounded good, and I agree from experience with job interviews that there’s probably a trick to that data sample.

[thethe]

Huh? First of all, baseball movement is referred to in the X (left/right) and Z (up/down) planes. The Y plane is measured as velocity towards home plate.

The magnus, frictional and gravitational forces on a thrown baseball are all constant, therefore the acceleration of the ball is constant throughout it's entire trajectory. There is no reason to derive anything beyond total movement.

Unless this kid has a degree in physics, I would suggest staying away from this topic and embarrassing himself. As tehteh just demonstrated, nothing looks worse than someone trying to talk about something outside the content of their brain pan. If he wants to learn about it though, Dr. Alan Nathan has written many excellent articles about the physics behind baseball movement.

It's another way to look at the impact of spin rates.

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

It's another way to look at the impact of spin rates.

Were you talking about differentiation between horizontal and vertical movement instead of total movement? I know people already do that, for sure. If you’re not talking about that I need more clarification.

[thethe]

As encheff pointed out this concept has been studied in many ways. However is essentially the identification of a tight curveball vs a loopy one. Total movement is misleading.

[Enscheff]

As encheff pointed out this concept has been studied in many ways. However is essentially the identification of a tight curveball vs a loopy one. Total movement is misleading.

This is completely wrong, and shows a lack of understanding behind the physics of ball movement. Seriously, read Dr. Nathan's work before babbling on like this.

[thethe]

This is completely wrong, and shows a lack of understanding behind the physics of ball movement. Seriously, read Dr. Nathan's work before babbling on like this.

Does the spin rate of a ball decrease as a ball moves on a plane?

[Enscheff]

Does the spin rate of a ball decrease as a ball moves on a plane?

Any decrease of a ball’s angular momentum would be constant for all balls thrown by every pitcher. There is nothing to discuss here.

Just stop. You’re further proving your ignorance with every single post.

[thethe]

Any decrease of a ball’s angular momentum would be constant for all balls thrown by every pitcher. There is nothing to discuss here.

Just stop. You’re further proving your ignorance with every single post.

Took you that long to research a response eh?

The forward momentum of the ball and the spin rate will impact the rate at which the ball moves and when it moves.

[UNCBlue012]

The Mets situation is why we stockpiled resources into pitchers. They're just so volatile.

They're good enough to be legit, deep-run playoff contenders with their pitching. But they're also one or two key injuries away from being 10 games under .500.

[Enscheff]

Took you that long to research a response eh?

The forward momentum of the ball and the spin rate will impact the rate at which the ball moves and when it moves.

Lol you could not be more clueless. A pitcher imparts velocity and spin on a particular axis the moment the ball leaves his hand. After that point all balls are effected by external forces exactly the same. There is nothing to analyze. If you’re still referencing the “late break” fallacy, I suggest reading Nathan’s work.

I’m confident nsacpi will not be forwarding any of your thoughts to this kid, so your ignorance is harmless.

[thethe]

Lol you could not be more clueless. A pitcher imparts velocity and spin on a particular axis the moment the ball leaves his hand. After that point all balls are effected by external forces exactly the same. There is nothing to analyze. If you’re still referencing the “late break” fallacy, I suggest reading Nathan’s work.

I’m confident nsacpi will not be forwarding any of your thoughts to this kid, so your ignorance is harmless.

Agreed with this but these forces imparted by the pitcher are different at the time of release. Unless of course you are saying all spin rates and velocity are uniform across the total pitcher population.

[nsacpi]

preliminary finding: one of the pitchers has a very good pitch that he does not use much

could be related to injury history

[nsacpi]

what about the meta question: what can we say about how things will unfold next off-season given the very weird off-season we just saw. Anyone?

[50PoundHead]

what about the meta question: what can we say about how things will unfold next off-season given the very weird off-season we just saw. Anyone?

But as weird as the off-season was, outside of Moustakas signing for below market value, Holland not signing yet, and Lynn getting only a one-year deal, everyone else in the top tier of guys pretty much got paid. I was surprised that Cobb got a contract for as much and as long as it turned out to be.

[nsacpi]

But as weird as the off-season was, outside of Moustakas signing for below market value, Holland not signing yet, and Lynn getting only a one-year deal, everyone else in the top tier of guys pretty much got paid. I was surprised that Cobb got a contract for as much and as long as it turned out to be.
Moose is the one big aberration. Lynn did get multiyear offers. Walker also got much less than expected.

[50PoundHead]

Moose is the one big aberration. Lynn did get multiyear offers. Walker also got much less than expected.

I agree on Walker to some extent. I don't know if it's analytics or not, but I think of guys like Walker and John Jay in kind of the same category; guys in their early-30s who are support-level players. I think these guys are worth more to contenders than to also-rans, but the Yankees are contenders so that line of reasoning doesn't work on the Walker deal.

[50PoundHead]

Moose is the one big aberration. Lynn did get multiyear offers. Walker also got much less than expected.

Double jeopardy.

[Heyward]

Probably depends how this year goes.

But would try to extend DeGrom and Thor, if Mets had bunch of injuries again and fizzled around .500, i'd look to trade one or both and blow it up.

[nsacpi]

Probably depends how this year goes.

But would try to extend DeGrom and Thor, if Mets had bunch of injuries again and fizzled around .500, i'd look to trade one or both and blow it up.

why blow up a .500 team with two great pitchers...the only deadweight is Wright and his salary drops the last two years of his contract

[Enscheff]

But as weird as the off-season was, outside of Moustakas signing for below market value, Holland not signing yet, and Lynn getting only a one-year deal, everyone else in the top tier of guys pretty much got paid. I was surprised that Cobb got a contract for as much and as long as it turned out to be.

I pretty much agree with this. I think we saw some unusual cases of guys not finding a market due to specific circumstances (lack of 3b need, Holland overplaying his hand, and concerns over Lynn’s peripherals), but everyone else got paid almost as expected.

[Southcack77]

Moose is the one big aberration. Lynn did get multiyear offers. Walker also got much less than expected.

Not real surprising honestly. He's a not so young, middling fielder that is a year removed from what I think will be more like an outlier than a breakout.

I wasn't thrilled about the braves signing him, even at a bargain rate.

[sturg33]

I thought there was a lot of value in the 2-3 WAR outfielder market