2014 Roster & Payroll

[nsacpi]

Payroll was in the $90-95M range this year. With the new national TV revenues (which bring in an extra $28M per year per team) it will be probably be around $110M in 2014.

Here is what the numbers might look like next year. I present a scenario without too much change and without re-signing McCann. It is meant to be a point of departure for discussion.

Rotation: Minor (2.5M, looks like he'll be a Super 2), Medlen (4M), Hudson (6M), Beachy (1M), Teheran (0.5M). Total Rotation (14M)

Pen: Kimbrel (6.5), Walden (1.5), Carpenter (0.5), Avilan (0.5), Wood (0.5), Varvaro (0.5), Gearrin (0.5). Total Pen (10.5M)

Starters: BJ (14.2), Justin (14.3), Heyward (5), Freeman (3.8), Uggla (13.2), Lord BABIP (4.5), Simmons (0.5), Gattis (0.5) Total (56M)

Bench: Laird (1.5), Reed (1.6), Pena (0.9), Schafer (1.0), Pastornicky (0.5) Total Bench (5.5M)

Total: 86M

I'm also going to assume they bring back Venters and EOF and those two guys start the season on the DL at a combined cost of 4M.

This makes for a Grand Total of 90M.

The main takeaway from this exercise is that Wren will have about $20M of flexibility (if you are willing to share my assumption of a $110M budget). I think he'll keep about 5M in reserve for mid-season moves. So about 15M this off-season to play with. Could be used to re-sign McCann or make other moves.

[thethe]

We would have 15M for next season but then the raises kick in the following years. It doesn't make sense to load money into Mac as long as its clear that Freeman/Heyward stay.

[nsacpi]

We would have 15M for next season but then the raises kick in the following years. It doesn't make sense to load money into Mac as long as its clear that Freeman/Heyward stay.

Yes, Wren has to look several years ahead because our young players will be getting raises as they move through the arbitration process. But there are also some offsets. Presumably some or all of the 6M I have ticketed for Hudson drops out after 2014, all of the $13M that Uggla makes drops out after 2015. The front office also has the option of moving some of the younger players as they get expensive. Kimbrel and Lord BABIP would be candidates. We could hold on to them for 2014 and 2015 and then trade them. Or allow them to move on as free agents after 2016. Medlen is another one we could trade at some point or allow to leave as a free agent after 2015.

[Bj1133]

Have to extend guys like Heyward and Freeman and maybe a pitcher or 2. I might even be inclined to offer Simmons a long extension at this point.

[Knucksie]

Think the scenario of McCann returning is way < 50% Would almost bet money on him ending up with Texas. He will get tendered for the compensation pick though. Don't expect the same for Maholm, since the demand for his services won't be as high. Kind of think that they're going to take a wait and see approach with Hudson. Supposedly, he'll be completely healed by next month. They'll take a wait and see approach.

Where's Venters in that bullpen? Might as well let him start the year in rotation at AAA to get innings/experience.

The likes of Reed and Schafer are replaceable, although affordable. One might be back, but probably not both.

Bottom line, you can't really project next season's opening day roster, strictly based on the previous October. Year to year, there's always A LOT of turnover. Wren will be active in the trade market and maybe (holding breath) he'll take the plunge in the FA market.

[nsacpi]

Have to extend guys like Heyward and Freeman and maybe a pitcher or 2. I might even be inclined to offer Simmons a long extension at this point.

It takes two to tango. We can't extend if they have decided they want to eventually test the free agent market. But I agree we should try. Heyward first since he is the one closest to free agency. If he is not interested, I would move on to the others.

[Bj1133]

Hate to say it, but if Heyward declines an extension offer (I believe its been reported that he already declined one) then it might be best to trade him

[nsacpi]

Hate to say it, but if Heyward declines an extension offer (I believe its been reported that he already declined one) then it might be best to trade him

It is worth keeping in mind that players who go to free agency are not necessarily looking to move. A fair number of free agents re-sign with their teams.

[thethe]

Just show them the money. Don't give them a reason to think otherwise.

[Knucksie]

Hate to say it, but if Heyward declines an extension offer (I believe its been reported that he already declined one) then it might be best to trade him

Not always the best idea. Sometimes the best idea is to take the risk of "career year" entering free agency.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Reading thru OBriens and Bowmans Tweets this morning (I dont give total credence to either but they are closer to the flagpole than any of us) they neither give much chance that McCann returns.

Our bench has to be strengthened. Five little banjo pickers aint gonna get it done. My first suggestion would be Pierzynski. Is Pena even projected to be ready.

One of the scribes this AM says Venters and OFlay wont even be healthy til mid and late June. Half season gone so I wouldnt even put them in the equation.

Hudson is iffy at best IMO. Josh Johnson has said he wants to come back to NL. Better bet on a 1 year IMO. Cheaper too.

[thethe]

I would be all over Johnson. Give him a big time incentive laden deal. He could end up being the best signing of the whole offseason.

[nsacpi]

Josh Johnson vs Huddy on a one year deal. Hmmm. Interesting way to look at it.

[thethe]

Josh Johnson vs Huddy on a one year deal. Hmmm. Interesting way to look at it.

I'd sign both and see what you could get for Medlen or Minor. I'd really like to have the farm system back to the levels it was 5-6 years ago.

[nsacpi]

I'd sign both and see what you could get for Medlen or Minor. I'd really like to have the farm system back to the levels it was 5-6 years ago.

We're not rebuilding. I'd be very surprised to see any trades that involved our sending an established player for prospects.

[PawPawMaxwell]

[QUOTE=thethe;54614]I'd sign both and see what you could get for Medlen or Minor. I'd really like to have the farm system back to the levels it was 5-6 years ago.[/QUOTSi
Signing one is a limited gamble with the risk of losing their dollars. Signing 2 would be foolish in that both could easily fail. Trading Medlen or Minor at this time in favor of Hudson or Johnson is considerably more than foolish IMO.

[thethe]

[QUOTE=thethe;54614]I'd sign both and see what you could get for Medlen or Minor. I'd really like to have the farm system back to the levels it was 5-6 years ago.[/QUOTSi
Signing one is a limited gamble with the risk of losing their dollars. Signing 2 would be foolish in that both could easily fail. Trading Medlen or Minor at this time in favor of Hudson or Johnson is considerably more than foolish IMO.

If you trade one of them you still have the following (assuming you sign both Johnson and Huddy)

Medlen or Minor
Teheran
Huddy
Johnson
Beachy
Wood

I'm actually not worried about Huddy being a serviceable pitcher. Johnson is a real risk though.

[BlackwaterPark]

David Price needs to be in a Braves uniform by Spring Training...

[nsacpi]

The upside on Josh Johnson can't be ignored either. Given the choice between Huddy and Josh Johnson, I'd have to lean toward Johnson. Assuming the cost is reasonable.

[thethe]

David Price needs to be in a Braves uniform by Spring Training...

They got Myers for Shields. We don't have a prospect that good to trade.

[Dunit24]

David Price needs to be in a Braves uniform by Spring Training...

THIS times a million

Get us an ace to go with Minor, Medlen, Teheran, and Wood. Would be set for years. Build the offense around Freeman-Heyward-Uptons-Gattis. Easier said than done though regarding Price..because of his price.

[Tapate50]

Boy, our team would have looked a lot different if we had given Victorino 3/39 instead of BJ 5/75.
Wow....

[nsacpi]

Boy, our team would have looked a lot different if we had given Victorino 3/39 instead of BJ 5/75.
Wow....

Yeah. But was anyone arguing strongly for Victorino last year? I had both him and BJ on a very short list of guys we should pursue to play center but did not feel strongly about one over the other.

[gcbraves]

I like this thread. 2013 is over.

[Hudson2]

Gattis would get the Rays attention.

[nsacpi]

Gattis would get the Rays attention.

I think so. They are probably aware that the Royals overpayed to get Shields. They have a smart and realistic front office. I think they would seriously consider Gattis and Medlen for Price. They might ask for Minor rather than Medlen because of the two extra years of contractual control.

[Retch]

For me, I don't think I would trade Minor.

[NYCBrave]

I think so. They are probably aware that the Royals overpayed to get Shields. They have a smart and realistic front office. I think they would seriously consider Gattis and Medlen for Price. They might ask for Minor rather than Medlen because of the two extra years of contractual control.

Only issue with giving up Gattis is, then what's our catching situation for next year? Price is almost a must for us, we'll have him for 2 years, but I think we learned how important a bonafide ace is to have in the playoffs, especially the short series (or wild card game).

If that's not an option, I'd love to take a shot on Josh Johnson on a 1 year deal. Even with his poor season last year, he still averaged over a K an inning, and he's turning 30. Seems like someone who would thrive on our team and return to ace form.

[CrimsonCowboy]

Gattis would get the Rays attention.

Maybe. I think they may take a harder look at Bethancourt

[Enscheff]

While the specific names can be argued, the overall costs to fill those spots on the roster seem about right. For example, I see no reason to pay Schafer $1M when Reed and Heyward can both play CF, and Constanza is waiting in AAA in a pinch. I would much rather see a real LHed Hinske-type bench bat brought in. I also doubt it costs $4M to keep EOF and Venters around coming off TJ (second one for Venters). If it does cost anywhere near that much I think I have to pass on both.

The only way I see Mac coming back is if Gattis is traded for a young stud to play 2B. Maybe a deal centered around Gattis for Profar? Wren would obviously have to add assets, but Gattis would be the centerpiece.

It may sound nuts, but there is an off chance some "Uggla money" could be freed up to make a run at Cano. It is about the same slim chance that the Braves had at signing Holliday a few years ago, but the tiny chance is there nonetheless. If the payroll bumps up to the $110M range, paying Cano $20M per year suddnely becomes only 18% of the payroll and doesn't sound quite so outlandish.

Bottom line is that Wren MUST fix 2B this offseason. He has the resources to get a significant player, so he needs to get it done. Anything less than a near all-star level player at 2B next season should be viewed as a failure on Wren's part.

[Enscheff]

The upside on Josh Johnson can't be ignored either. Given the choice between Huddy and Josh Johnson, I'd have to lean toward Johnson. Assuming the cost is reasonable.

I suggested bringing in JJ on a 1 year deal earlier this week. He is Wren's only real shot at bringing in an Ace from outside the organization. Halliday might also be a possibility.

[emk418]

Let McCann walk and see what it would take to get an ace. I would trade a ton for Price if we're allowed to negotiate with him.

[nsacpi]

The sequencing is tricky. I don't see us trading Gattis until McCann or some other catcher is signed. It would be reckless to trade him without an alternative in place.

[Dunit24]

I think we need to be careful not to make many changes. This team won 96 games and it was a very injury plagued season. Who knows how many games we would have won if Huddy, EOF, Venters, Beachy, Heyward, etc...didnt miss a ton of time. Also factor in Dan Uggla and BJ Uptons terrible seasons and its crazy how this team won 96 games.

I am willing to bet anyone on here that BJ Upton will have a very good season next year. If that happens, that just makes us even better whether Mac returns or not. Thats why I want to keep it as simple as possible.

We have a great nucleus already. Lets focus on keeping them around for a while, while adding pieces around them that arent too costly. I said earlier to sign David Price, but I see that hes not a free agent. I would not trade the farm for him.

[Dunit24]

The sequencing is tricky. I don't see us trading Gattis until McCann or some other catcher is signed. It would be reckless to trade him without an alternative in place.

If McCann is re-signed, im all for Gattis being traded to try and acquire an ace.

[Heyward]

David Price needs to be in a Braves uniform by Spring Training...

We don't have the prospects for him.

If they got Myers for Shields, i don't want to imagine the cost for Price.

[Heyward]

I'd sign AJ Pierzynski on a one year deal to platoon with Gattis.

Josh Johnson is cooked.

I'd agree with BJ if Heyward declined an extension, I'd consider trading him.

Bring back EOF and Venters and stash on the DL.

[Heyward]

I think so. They are probably aware that the Royals overpayed to get Shields. They have a smart and realistic front office. I think they would seriously consider Gattis and Medlen for Price. They might ask for Minor rather than Medlen because of the two extra years of contractual control.

Gattis and Medlen isn't getting Price, that's laughable.

And no way on Minor for Price unless Price signs an extension.

[cajunrevenge]

I think the projected payroll is low about 4-5 million but we should still have 15-20 mill to spend. The main problem us that we could be adding that much just in arb raises after the 2014 season.

I agree about going after Price. The Rays had worse attendance than expected and will be cutting payroll so there is little doubt he will be traded. I think they will want Alex Wood. If Wren parts with him I think a deal can get done. They will not want arbitration players like Medlen and Minor as center pieces of the deal. I expect them to want either Gattis ir Bethancourt. On top of that I expect them to ask for one if the low upside guys in the high minors like Terd, Pastor, La Stella, or Schafer and then one of the A ball high upside guys like Peraza, Cabrera, or Simms. Now we could always trade Kimbrel or someone else for prospects and use then in this trade as well.

Look at what other teams who will persue Price have to offer, that's what we have to beat. The Rays will want platers that they have control of for a long time but who are major league ready as well.

[nsacpi]

Gattis and Medlen isn't getting Price, that's laughable.

And no way on Minor for Price unless Price signs an extension.

So Gattis and Medlen for Price and Gattis and Minor for Price are "ain't no ways" tho for different reasons. Interesting.

[Bdawg2309]

https://twitter.com/ajcbraves/status/388000451590754304

:Sad:

[PawPawMaxwell]

If McCann is re-signed, im all for Gattis being traded to try and acquire an ace.

If McCann is resigned (projected at 15-18M) add in Uggla, Upton and Upton you have almost 60M committed. What do you pay that Ace with? Just asking.

[emk418]

If McCann is resigned (projected at 15-18M) add in Uggla, Upton and Upton you have almost 60M committed. What do you pay that Ace with? Just asking.

We are screwed if we spend $15M or more on McCann

[PawPawMaxwell]

We are screwed if we spend $15M or more on McCann

Yep!!!!

[nsacpi]

If McCann is resigned (projected at 15-18M) add in Uggla, Upton and Upton you have almost 60M committed. What do you pay that Ace with? Just asking.

Price made 10.1M in 2013 coming off a Cy Young season. He'll get a raise but it won't be that big considering he dropped off a bit. Probably to 13-15M.

Where do we find that if McCann is re-signed? Good question. In my opening post I allocated 6M to Hudson and 4M for Medlen. If we get Price presumably we don't sign Hudson and trade away Medlen. So that's 10M there saved that could be used to pay Price. The rest could come from the $5M that I assumed would be saved for mid-season trades, or we could not spend the $4M I assumed we would to bring back Venters and EOF. Our rotation would be Price, Minor, Teheran, Beachy, Wood.

[Heyward]

So Gattis and Medlen for Price and Gattis and Minor for Price are "ain't no ways" tho for different reasons. Interesting.

No, Gattis and Medlen/Minor isn't getting Price.

It will have to include one of Heyward, Simmons, Freeman.

If they got Myers+ for Shields, it will take a ton for Price.

[nsacpi]

No, Gattis and Medlen/Minor isn't getting Price.

It will have to include one of Heyward, Simmons, Freeman.

If they got Myers+ for Shields, it will take a ton for Price.

You might be right. I just think the Meyers for Shields trade was such a bad trade (from the Royals perspective) that the Rays may realize they aren't likely to find a trade partner for Price that is as dumb.

[stpeteirish]

Gattis and Medlen isn't getting Price, that's laughable.

And no way on Minor for Price unless Price signs an extension.

Minor had a better year than Price. And is younger. And cheaper. No way I'd do that trade.

[stpeteirish]

I think the projected payroll is low about 4-5 million but we should still have 15-20 mill to spend. The main problem us that we could be adding that much just in arb raises after the 2014 season.

I agree about going after Price. The Rays had worse attendance than expected and will be cutting payroll so there is little doubt he will be traded. I think they will want Alex Wood. If Wren parts with him I think a deal can get done. They will not want arbitration players like Medlen and Minor as center pieces of the deal. I expect them to want either Gattis ir Bethancourt. On top of that I expect them to ask for one if the low upside guys in the high minors like Terd, Pastor, La Stella, or Schafer and then one of the A ball high upside guys like Peraza, Cabrera, or Simms. Now we could always trade Kimbrel or someone else for prospects and use then in this trade as well.

Look at what other teams who will persue Price have to offer, that's what we have to beat. The Rays will want platers that they have control of for a long time but who are major league ready as well.

You're on the right track. The Rays cannot afford Price and have a track record of trading guys like him, when they begin to peak out performance wise and get expensive. They need bats more than anything. Especially catchers who can hit, Lobaton's walkoff the other night was a fluke of massive proportions.

I'd beware of giving up a young, cheap starter like Wood (along with Gattis, of course) for Price. Price spent some time on the DL (for the first time, I think) this year, lost some velocity, and was generally not the pitcher he's been. He's still a top guy, the Shields comparison is workable here.

Rays attendance went down this year from already low numbers. They aren't getting a new ballpark anytime soon, the political environment here is toxic. They're a lock to cut payroll and simply pocket the new TV money. Price and Longoria are their only real expensive guys. Longoria will be good for many more years, not sure about Price so he'll be the one they'll try to trade.

[nsacpi]

The Rays will listen to offers on Price but I don't think they are in a hurry to trade. The increased TV revenues will more than offset the attendance drop. They have done their usual great job of not taking on bad contracts. Their obligations for next year will be quite low since they have a bunch of expiring contracts (nothing major but the deals for Kelly Johnson, Roberto Hernandez, James Loney, Luke Scott, Fernando Rodney, Matt Joyce, Jose Molina all run out). They will have to find replacements in some cases, but generally the Rays do a great job as bottom feeders. I think they see themselves as a strong contending team in 2014 and won't be looking to unload Price unless a compelling offer comes along. I think they are much more likely to trade him after the 2014 season.

[Jay212033]

We don't need to make whole sell changes but we need to make a few key changes.

1. Trade for an Ace! The past few years it has been clear that's what this team is missing. I say we trade Kris Medlen and Christian Bethancourt to the Rays for David Price

2. Trade Dan Uggla to anyone that would take him for some salary relief. Promote Tommy La Stella to play 2B.

3. Sign a couple of relief pitchers.

4. Play Ball!

Lineup:
Heyward - RF
Upton - LF
Freeman - 1B
Gattis - C
Johnson - 3B
La Stella - 2B
Simmons - SS
Upton - CF

Bench:
Laird - C
Schafer - OF
Pena - UT
Terdoslovich - OF/1B
Johnson - UT

Rotation:
Price - LHP
Teheran - RHP
Minor - LHP
Beachy - RHP
Wood - LHP

[50PoundHead]

You might be right. I just think the Meyers for Shields trade was such a bad trade (from the Royals perspective) that the Rays may realize they aren't likely to find a trade partner for Price that is as dumb.

Long range yes, but Shields ain't exactly chopped liver and Kansas City improved by 14 games from last year to this one. Where the Royals got totally hosed was in the secondary part of the deal which sent Montgomery, Odorizzi and Leonard to Tampa Bay for Davis and Eliot Johnson.

I'd take Shields at the right price.

[jsebe10]

I miss Prado and Infante :(

[nsacpi]

I'd take Shields at the right price.

I'd be interested too. I think the Royals will try to sign him to a long-term deal. If he says no, it would make sense for them to trade him. Of course, Dayton Moore doesn't always do what makes sense.

[CrimsonCowboy]

As close as the Royals were to the postseason, no way they trade Shields.

[nsacpi]

I miss Prado and Infante :(

They're good complementary pieces. But with the type of team we have now, they'd be perfect. I think guys like La Stella and in a few years Peraza would fit in very well as table setters for all the power hitters we have. Even Pastornicky could provide a bit of that.

[nsacpi]

As close as the Royals were to the postseason, no way they trade Shields.

I suspect that's Dayton's thought process.

[50PoundHead]

As close as the Royals were to the postseason, no way they trade Shields.

I agree. The Myers/Shields trade will be hotly debated for years, especially if Myers becomes the offensive player it appears he can be. But Shields is flat-out money. Very underrated pitcher.

[NYCBrave]

I agree. The Myers/Shields trade will be hotly debated for years, especially if Myers becomes the offensive player it appears he can be. But Shields is flat-out money. Very underrated pitcher.

And unfortunately not the pitcher we need to achieve playoff success. In 6 career playoff starts, he owns an ugly 4.98 ERA. He'll also be 32 next year. He's a fringe ace type guy, we need a bonafide ace for the short series.

[NYCBrave]

The Rays will listen to offers on Price but I don't think they are in a hurry to trade. The increased TV revenues will more than offset the attendance drop. They have done their usual great job of not taking on bad contracts. Their obligations for next year will be quite low since they have a bunch of expiring contracts (nothing major but the deals for Kelly Johnson, Roberto Hernandez, James Loney, Luke Scott, Fernando Rodney, Matt Joyce, Jose Molina all run out). They will have to find replacements in some cases, but generally the Rays do a great job as bottom feeders. I think they see themselves as a strong contending team in 2014 and won't be looking to unload Price unless a compelling offer comes along. I think they are much more likely to trade him after the 2014 season.

The fact is, if they are serious about trading Price, there are plenty of other teams who have more to offer than we do. For starters, Texas needs to move Profar and the deal makes too much sense for them, unless they prefer to go after Stanton.

[PawPawMaxwell]

The fact is, if they are serious about trading Price, there are plenty of other teams who have more to offer than we do. For starters, Texas needs to move Profar and the deal makes too much sense for them, unless they prefer to go after Stanton.

Aint that the truth.

You have to consider that the Shields/Myers deal plus the add on was meant a bit in the manner of job protection.

[cajunrevenge]

Just because other teams have more to offer doesnt mean they will. The twins could offer Buxton or Sano but they wont. The Rangers need bats more than they need pitching and they dont need to move Profar. They need a middle of the order bat more than they need pitching.

[The Chosen One]

It takes two to tango. We can't extend if they have decided they want to eventually test the free agent market. But I agree we should try. Heyward first since he is the one closest to free agency. If he is not interested, I would move on to the others.

I thought you could only buy out the arbitration years? Isn't that what we did with McCann. I thought every player was required to test free agency.

[drewdat]

I thought you could only buy out the arbitration years? Isn't that what we did with McCann. I thought every player was required to test free agency.

Would have hit FA after 2011 I believe. I think we got two extra years with the deal he signed.

Longoria signed a 10 year deal I'm pretty sure. Just looked, 15 year deal.

[The Chosen One]

Would have hit FA after 2011 I believe. I think we got two extra years with the deal he signed.

Longoria signed a 10 year deal I'm pretty sure. Just looked, 15 year deal.

Oh ok thanks. I remember we gave the same offer to Francoeur and he turned it down, and I remember just everyone talking about how we bought out his arby years like Tampa Bay did Longoria like 2 weeks after he was called up.

[CrimsonCowboy]

Rays Pitcher David Price Preparing To Be Traded

http://tracking.si.com/2013/10/09/rays-david-price-preparing-to-be-traded/?sct=mlb_t2_a3

[emk418]

I know it will be difficult to match up prospect wise but we need to do everything possible to land David Price. We know the Rays LOVE Bethancourt so at least that's a start. I think CB and Alex Wood are a good start but will obviously take A LOT more.

[nsacpi]

When did this Rays LOVE Bethancourt stuff get going?

[NYCBrave]

When did this Rays LOVE Bethancourt stuff get going?

That's what I was just thinking. Source?

[Heyward]

Minor had a better year than Price. And is younger. And cheaper. No way I'd do that trade.

I wouldn't either, I've said before we don't have the chips for him.

Texas could get him but they need bats.

[Heyward]

I know it will be difficult to match up prospect wise but we need to do everything possible to land David Price. We know the Rays LOVE Bethancourt so at least that's a start. I think CB and Alex Wood are a good start but will obviously take A LOT more.

I wouldn't trade CB unless Mac re-signed which I doubt.