What's Wrong with Julio? (A Glimmer of Hope)

[Enscheff]

OK, we all know that Teheran's velocity is down 2-3 mph. That is not good news. However, taking a look at the movement compenents of his pitches shows a glimmer of hope.

2017 FA: 91.9 mph, 4.8" HMov, 8.0" VMov, Grade 40 overall, below average
2018 FA: 89.7 mph, 3.4" HMov, 7.9" VMov, Grade 30 overall, unusable

2017 SI: 91.8 mph, 9.3" HMov, 4.5" VMov (lower is better on SI), Grade 55 overall, above average
2018 SI: 89.0 mph, 9.2" HMov, 3.6" VMov (lower is better on SI), Grade 45 overall, below average

2017 CU: 73.9 mph, 6.3" HMov, -2.3" VMov, Grade 40 overall, below average
2018 CU: 71.6 mph, 7.9" HMov, -3.0" VMov, Grade 50 overall, average

2017 SL: 83.1 mph, 1.1" HMov, 2.5" VMov, Grade 45 overall, below average
2018 SL: 79.3 mph, 3.2" HMov, 0.1" VMov, Grade 55 overall, above average

2017 CH: 9.0 mph delta, 7.5" HMov, 5.7" VMov, Grade 50 overall, average
2018 CH: 8.3 mph delta, 8.4" HMov, 4.7 VMov, Grade 55, above average

The movement on all his off speed pitches has increased. His CU is curving more. His SL is sliding more. His CH is fading more.

The only problem is the missing 2-3 mph on everything, especially the FA/SI. That missing velocity is making both of his fastballs below average, and the FA is completely unusable. A pitcher needs a FA or SI as the foundation of their arsenal that everything else works off, and Teheran does not possess an MLB-quality FA/SI right now. He is currently not an MLB-quality pitcher because of it.

If Teheran can get the FA/SI velocity back up to the usual 91-92 range, the added movement he found on his breaking balls could allow him to right the ship this season and back to being a solid #3.

However, if that increased velocity comes with decreased movement on his off speed pitches, he will still be the 4/5 guy he was last season. That's better than what he is right now though...which is a pitcher who doesn't belong in an MLB rotation.

[Hawk]

He's a madvillain.

[Enscheff]

Additionally, it looks like the talk about "finding his slider" is backed up by the numbers. Not only is he getting more movement on the pitch, he has also notably increased the spin rate on it.

2017 SL Spin Rate: 2452 rpm
2018 SL Spin Rate: 2556 rpm

He was in the top third in SL spin rate in 2017, but he is in the top quintile so far in 2018.

That is a real measurable increase in a player's skill. Now he just needs the FA/SI velocity to come back. If it doesn't...he's done.

[BeanieAntics]

I wonder if he could still be viable without the velocity increase if he just abandoned the 4 seam and went primarily with the sinker as his fastball? It would still be below average, but with 3 above average secondary offerings could he still be a viable 4 or something?

[Tapate50]

Its early. The velo could bounce back a tick or two. Really needs to be 91+

[Enscheff]

I wonder if he could still be viable without the velocity increase if he just abandoned the 4 seam and went primarily with the sinker as his fastball? It would still be below average, but with 3 above average secondary offerings could he still be a viable 4 or something?

Probably. He has historically used his pitches roughly as...

FA: 40%+
SI: ~20%
CH: ~8%
SL: ~20%
CU: ~10%

He throws the below average FA way too much, and he always has. He has dropped his usage of it to a career low 37.4% in 2018, but it needs to be much lower.

[Super]

#EnscheffForPitchingCoach

[Enscheff]

Teheran showed some positive signs in his last start.

FA velocity up a tick from 89.5 to 90.3.

SI velocity up a tick from 88.8 to 89.8.

Of his 96 pitches, only 24 (25%) were FAs, 29 (30%) were SIs, 28 (29%) were SLs, 11 (11%) were CHs, and 4 (4%) were CUs.

He did exactly as I sugggested: cut the FA rate way down, and threw many more SI/SL/CH. Unsurprisingly, he was much more effective with that pitch mix. Let's hope he keeps it up and the velocity continues to creep back up over the next few starts.

[Carp]

He looked very good. Honestly, the runs he gave up were just the victim of CJ Buckner and bad defense (imo) by Flaherty.

He did get a bit lucky at other times last night, but overall he pitched well and had nice movement on his pitches.

[clvclv]

Its early. The velo could bounce back a tick or two. Really needs to be 91+

FWIW, his velo usually ticks up as the weather breaks and turns warmer - not a huge amount, but a little.

Not that that gives us a ton of hope since what seems to get hammered so much in SunTrust are the hangers he constantly throws.

[Enscheff]

The data shows the first 2 games were the worst velocity Teheran has ever started a season with. Luckily, he seems to have mostly bounced back. He still needs to throw the FA less than his career rate.

https://i.imgur.com/iQT5kBU.jpg

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

I think the “kick Julio out of the rotation” takes after the first game were a tad premature, though he’s definitely not an ace. I would probably kick Sanchez out and move him to the bullpen when Gohara is ready

[Enscheff]

I think the “kick Julio out of the rotation” takes after the first game were a tad premature, though he’s definitely not an ace. I would probably kick Sanchez out and move him to the bullpen when Gohara is ready

This board is very good at jumping to wildly incorrect conclusions based off a very small amount of data.

Remember when MAdams was suddenly so good he dramatically increased his trade value, and getting his bat in the lineup necessitated moving Freeman to 3B? Remember when I said over and over that MAdams was simply having unsustainable good luck on fly balls?

In his second start of 2018 Newk got an aggressive Rockies lineup to swing at many of his FAs up and out of the zone, so now folks are excited about him...a single start after saying he sucks based on his first start of 2018. In the span of 1 week, Newk went from being terrible to being a TOR guy.

It's the same thing around here...over and over and over and over.

[AerchAngel]

This board is very good at jumping to wildly incorrect conclusions based off a very small amount of data.

Remember when MAdams was suddenly so good he dramatically increased his trade value, and getting his bat in the lineup necessitated moving Freeman to 3B? Remember when I said over and over that MAdams was simply having unsustainable good luck on fly balls?

In his second start of 2018 Newk got an aggressive Rockies lineup to swing at many of his FAs up and out of the zone, so now folks are excited about him...a single start after saying he sucks based on his first start of 2018. In the span of 1 week, Newk went from being terrible to being a TOR guy.

It's the same thing around here...over and over and over and over.

Don't worry about it so much, it is not going to change, partner.

Just keep doing what you are doing because you are quite damn good at it. The distractions that people post takes you off your game so don't let them get to you. The less you worry about them, the more great stuff we get from you.

[PurpleBrave]

What’s wrong with him is he’s still on the team. Should have dealt him long ago. May be able to get a quad A reliever for him now

[weso1]

It's always been about his politics for me. Other than that I think he's great.

[Carp]

Julio definitely on tonight. Some of the best movement on his pitches that I've seen in a while. And a home start to boot. Very encouraging.

[nsacpi]

slider is back

[Enscheff]

I will post his pitch usage when it’s available. It will be interesting to see how many FAs he threw.

[bravesfanMatt]

I will post his pitch usage when it’s available. It will be interesting to see how many FAs he threw.

I think you nailed it.. seemed to be throwing more moving pitches... mixed the change in enough to keep guys off the 4 seamer. Slider movement was excellent.

[50PoundHead]

Agree that the four-seamer is pretty much a "spot" pitch for him now, but if it's in anyone's sweet zone, you might as well put a postage stamp on it. I've always admired his competitiveness, so maybe he can learn to pitch backwards and have some measure of success.

[thewupk]

I will post his pitch usage when it’s available. It will be interesting to see how many FAs he threw.

Fangraphs had him at 51% fastballs which was even less than his last time against Washington. Slider was at 30% with both the curve and change at 9%

Fastball also averaged 88.7 mph last night which actually is the lowest of the year so far.

[50PoundHead]

Fangraphs had him at 51% fastballs which was even less than his last time against Washington. Slider was at 30% with both the curve and change at 9%

Fastball also averaged 88.7 mph last night which actually is the lowest of the year so far.

From the Game Day broadcast that I followed, there were more 2-seam fastballs as opposed to 4-seam fastballs. Herrera's HR was on a four-seamer. When Teheran throws his four-seamer, it's going to have to be up in the eyes so a guy is chasing out of the zone. It appears that if his four-seamer is in the strike zone, it gets tattooed more than Peter Moylan.

[thewupk]

From the Game Day broadcast that I followed, there were more 2-seam fastballs as opposed to 4-seam fastballs. Herrera's HR was on a four-seamer. When Teheran throws his four-seamer, it's going to have to be up in the eyes so a guy is chasing out of the zone. It appears that if his four-seamer is in the strike zone, it gets tattooed more than Peter Moylan.

You're probably right. The last two games he's seem to found something with his slider so hopefully it can continue.

[Enscheff]

For context:

He has historically used his pitches roughly as (including the first 2 games of 2018)...

FA: 40%+
SI: ~20%
CH: ~8%
SL: ~20%
CU: ~10%

In his start 6 days ago he threw 96 pitches, only 24 (25%) were FAs, 29 (30%) were SIs, 28 (29%) were SLs, 11 (11%) were CHs, and 4 (4%) were CUs.

Last night, he also threw 96 pitches, broken down as:

25 FAs (26%), 21 SIs (22%), 27 SLs (28%), 9 CHs (9%), 13 CUs (14%)

Once again, he threw the FA much less than his career rate as suggested on these boards months ago in favor of more SIs and off speed stuff.

This is likely how Julio will have to evolve as a pitcher, drastically reducing the usage of his poor FA and relying on his above average breaking stuff. Of course, the 5+ BB/9 still needs to come down, but the 9+ K/9 is nice to see. Eventually batters are going to adjust and stop offering at the SL, at which point Julio will struggle again until he adjusts back.

[bravesfanMatt]

The homer he gave up was on a slider that didn’t slide. Maybe it got mistaken for a FA. But it wasn’t.

[CJ9]

Angels beat writer just mention Teheran and Michael Fulmer as potential targets for them at the deadline. They’ve got some interesting hitting prospects with Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh and Jahmai Jones.

Obviously we need Teheran to keep throwing well to deal him, but the Angels make a lot of sense based on their needs.

[thewupk]

Angels beat writer just mention Teheran and Michael Fulmer as potential targets for them at the deadline. They’ve got some interesting hitting prospects with Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh and Jahmai Jones.

Obviously we need Teheran to keep throwing well to deal him, but the Angels make a lot of sense based on their needs.

Good thing Coppy got fired. He'd offer Julio for Maitian right now.


Also I'm glad to see the Angels playing well. Probably would be my current AL team. I like a lot of players on that squad.

[Enscheff]

Angels beat writer just mention Teheran and Michael Fulmer as potential targets for them at the deadline. They’ve got some interesting hitting prospects with Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh and Jahmai Jones.

Obviously we need Teheran to keep throwing well to deal him, but the Angels make a lot of sense based on their needs.

I’m sure we will be endlessly debating Julio’s trade value in 3 months.

Hopefully the Braves are still on the edge of WC contention and we can talk about additions instead.

[50PoundHead]

Angels beat writer just mention Teheran and Michael Fulmer as potential targets for them at the deadline. They’ve got some interesting hitting prospects with Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh and Jahmai Jones.

Obviously we need Teheran to keep throwing well to deal him, but the Angels make a lot of sense based on their needs.

I doubt we'd get any of those guys for Teheran unless he threw complete game shutouts from now until the deadline.

[Southcack77]

Angels beat writer just mention Teheran and Michael Fulmer as potential targets for them at the deadline. They’ve got some interesting hitting prospects with Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh and Jahmai Jones.

Obviously we need Teheran to keep throwing well to deal him, but the Angels make a lot of sense based on their needs.

to be honest, getting out of paying him 11m next year might well be worth trading him alone. You have to guess that the Braves can fill that rotation spot cheaper. If they could get a prospect or young player back for him then that's super great. I feel sort of sad for teams looking for pitchers if Fulmer and Teheran are the cream of the available crop.

[thethe]

I doubt we'd get any of those guys for Teheran unless he threw complete game shutouts from now until the deadline.

Let me explain the principles of supply and demand.....

[Heyward]

I doubt we'd get any of those guys for Teheran unless he threw complete game shutouts from now until the deadline.

Supply and Demand my friend.

If the top targets for SP available are Julio, Fulmer, and Archer, which isnt alot, then teams will have to overpay. And often times, teams overpay when they get desperate.

[Enscheff]

Supply and Demand my friend.

If the top targets for SP available are Julio, Fulmer, and Archer, which isnt alot, then teams will have to overpay. And often times, teams overpay when they get desperate.

Sweet!!

Here we gooooo!!

[thewupk]

I doubt we'd get any of those guys for Teheran unless he threw complete game shutouts from now until the deadline.

Things can obviously change but all 3 were pegged with a 50FV. I've thought that would be the range in what you could get for Julio over the past year or so. If he's pitching well at the ASB I could see one of those guys coming back in a hypothetical deal with the contender tax.

[jpx7]

Things can obviously change but all 3 were pegged with a 50FV. I've thought that would be the range in what you could get for Julio over the past year or so. If he's pitching well at the ASB I could see one of those guys coming back in a hypothetical deal with the contender tax.

I’m skeptical, like 50, but it’s potentially plausible if the asks for Fullmer and Archer are prohibitive.

[JxnMissFan]

If Julio is pitching well enough to bring back a 50 Fv player then chances are the team is in WC contention and would never trade him.
If Julio stinks there is no way the team is in the WC chase. So then he will be a salary dump.

[jpx7]

If Julio is pitching well enough to bring back a 50 Fv player then chances are the team is in WC contention and would never trade him.
If Julio stinks there is no way the team is in the WC chase. So then he will be a salary dump.

That's the sort of bind teams often find themselves sliding into when they're up the cusp, but not quite over the threshold, of competing.

I'd personally favor trading Julio even if he's pitching well and the team is in WC contention—rolling the dice that Soroka can come close to approximating Teheran's performance—given the organization's depth in young pitching, the chance for a little more prospect depth to be brought in, and the additional $11 million it'd open up for FA chasing for 2019.

[CyYoung31]

That's the sort of bind teams often find themselves sliding into when they're up the cusp, but not quite over the threshold, of competing.

I'd personally favor trading Julio even if he's pitching well and the team is in WC contention—rolling the dice that Soroka can come close to approximating Teheran's performance—given the organization's depth in young pitching, the chance for a little more prospect depth to be brought in, and the additional $11 million it'd open up for FA chasing for 2019.

This.

[JxnMissFan]

That's the sort of bind teams often find themselves sliding into when they're up the cusp, but not quite over the threshold, of competing.

I'd personally favor trading Julio even if he's pitching well and the team is in WC contention—rolling the dice that Soroka can come close to approximating Teheran's performance—given the organization's depth in young pitching, the chance for a little more prospect depth to be brought in, and the additional $11 million it'd open up for FA chasing for 2019.

I agree. I would trade him just to free up the money. His fastball is gone and I don’t think he will survive just throwing breaking pitches. Maybe RA could come back and teach him a knuckle ball

[Heyward]

Sweet!!

Here we gooooo!!

I never said a top 10 prospect or anything but there arent a ton of projected good SP's on the market.

Then again if Julio implodes nothing will happen.

[Carp]

Unless Julio turns into Greg Maddux circa 1995, I am for trading him at the deadline no matter the position we are in. Even then, in this market the demand for a pitcher in his mid-late 20's pitching well on a team friendly deal should be very high and I'd still look to rob someone blind.

[Southcack77]

Unless Julio turns into Greg Maddux circa 1995, I am for trading him at the deadline no matter the position we are in. Even then, in this market the demand for a pitcher in his mid-late 20's pitching well on a team friendly deal should be very high and I'd still look to rob someone blind.

Well, you’d fail to trade him.

[Russ2dollas]

I think this Julio can be a very good player. Good on that deal.

He is just miscast as a front of the rotation guy. It’s like hitting ender first, love ender and it’s not his fault they hit him first

He can be a solid an affordable starter to help transition to the new wave. We’ve done well so far with scrap heap guts but we should be past that next year.

[50PoundHead]

Let me explain the principles of supply and demand.....

I am a public economist by trade, so I know a little about supply and demand.

[clvclv]

I am a public economist by trade, so I know a little about supply and demand.

I DEMAND cheaper beer at SunTrust!!!

[thethe]

I am a public economist by trade, so I know a little about supply and demand.

I'm sorry 50. It was meant as a joke for the mocking I get from another on this board.

I hope you would never think I would act like this towards you. Apologize for that.

[Hawk]

I'm sorry 50. It was meant as a joke for the mocking I get from another on this board.

I hope you would never think I would act like this towards you. Apologize for that.

Jeez, it's not like you killed his cat.

Economists lack humor - it's well documented.

[CyYoung31]

I'm sorry 50. It was meant as a joke for the mocking I get from another on this board.

I hope you would never think I would act like this towards you. Apologize for that.

What a jerk!

[Enscheff]

I suggested a while ago in this thread that Julio should drop his FA usage and increase his SL usage.

It looks like that was the plan, or at least seemed to be the plan, in game 1:

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/velocity-pitch-mix-changes-opening-day/

Julio at 91.5 and using the SL more often is an acceptable back end SP.

[nsacpi]

I am a public economist by trade, so I know a little about supply and demand.

credentials and expertise don't matter so much...your attitude is old-fashioned and elitist

except when it comes to a bypass...then people want the best heart surgeon...funny how that works

[nsacpi]

I suggested a while ago in this thread that Julio should drop his FA usage and increase his SL usage.

It looks like that was the plan, or at least seemed to be the plan, in game 1:

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/velocity-pitch-mix-changes-opening-day/

Julio at 91.5 and using the SL more often is an acceptable back end SP.

Actually Julio at 91.5 with the improved movement on the off-speed pitches might be a bit more than a back end SP. I noticed yesterday he put a couple hitters away with 93 mph at the top of the strike zone. If he has that in his back pocket when sitting at 91-92 with the improved off-speed pitches he could be one of those guys with a mid-career resurgence.

I also wonder if pitching to McCann will help him. Flowers is a good framer but sometimes eccentric in his sequencing decisions. I liked that McCann got him to mix in the changeup in some key situations. Just something extra for hitters to think about.

[zbhargrove]

Man if Julio really can re invent himself it’s yuge

[Southcack77]

Actually Julio at 91.5 with the improved movement on the off-speed pitches might be a bit more than a back end SP. I noticed yesterday he put a couple hitters away with 93 mph at the top of the strike zone. If he has that in his back pocket when sitting at 91-92 with the improved off-speed pitches he could be one of those guys with a mid-career resurgence.

I also wonder if pitching to McCann will help him. Flowers is a good framer but sometimes eccentric in his sequencing decisions. I liked that McCann got him to mix in the changeup in some key situations. Just something extra for hitters to think about.

I think the 5.40 era is sustainable.