GDT: 6/5 Braves at Padres

[Heyward]

Lineup:

Albies
Camargo
Freeman
Markakis
Suzuki
Ender
Culberson
Swanson
Newk

[Freshmaker]

Expecting a huge game from Culberson

[Ozzie Swanson]

Really surprised to see Ozzie make contact. I thought he was well on his way to getting DFA'd according to GeorgiaGirl.

[Freshmaker]

Freeman!!

[msstate7]

Hosmer lucky catch

[nsacpi]

expecting a yuge game from Inciarte

[msstate7]

When did renfroe learn to take a walk? Is that his first mlb walk?

[thethe]

Not liking calling for so many curves and changes in the first inning. Newks fastball is good enough to get through the first couple of innings. Let him establish that pitch and then mix in hi plus offspeed

[jpx7]

Not liking calling for so many curves and changes in the first inning. Newks fastball is good enough to get through the first couple of innings. Let him establish that pitch and then mix in hi plus offspeed

Flipping the script for the alternate coast.

[jpx7]

Damn: didn't realize their hitting-coach is Matt Stairs.

I remember seasons when I thought he'd be a good bench pickup for the Braves.

[thethe]

Newks gb rate is really spiking

[msstate7]

Newcomb only 2 k in last 9 ip

[thewupk]

Newcomb only 2 k in last 9 ip

bum

[thethe]

Free!

[thewupk]

freemans power is back

[msstate7]

bum

We have wisler. Just saying

[bravesfanMatt]

Newcomb only 2 k in last 9 ip

Allard > Newk.

[bravesfanMatt]

I like games where I feel 4 runs is enough to close the books.

[msstate7]

Ender killing it

[thethe]

Ender is dreadful

[jpx7]

Ender is dreadful

Defense keeps him worth playing, but I'm thinking sixth isn't low enough, and he should slot back down at ninth.

[thewupk]

Ender is dreadful

call up pache

[jpx7]

Hey CyYoung31, how does the level of Braves fans sound, btw?

[thethe]

Terrible newk

[thethe]

Ump called an outside strike against newk but doesn't give him a borderline pitch against Lyles

[msstate7]

call up pache

Get Jon jay with mous from KC

[thethe]

Thank you analytics

[Ozzie Swanson]

Ump called an outside strike against newk but doesn't give him a borderline pitch against Lyles

Also didn't give him a perfect curveball to the leadoff hitter on the first pitch.

[thewupk]

Terrible newk

lucky newk

[thethe]

Also didn't give him a perfect curveball to the leadoff hitter on the first pitch.

I'm sure it happens to everyone but since I root for newk more than anyone it seeks he gets lucky hits and bad calls against him more than most.

[Orphan Black]

I really wish someone could figure out why this idiot can't consistently throw strikes.

[Garmel]

Newk's been good but he's had Lady Luck on his side this year as well.

[CyYoung31]

Hey CyYoung31, how does the level of Braves fans sound, btw?

I’m not watching the game, btw.

[sturg33]

Thank you analytics

Notice the broadcast never calls this out

[jpx7]

Not sure I condone the strategy of walking the opposing pitcher ...

[thethe]

Not sure I condone the strategy of walking the opposing pitcher ...

Trying to tire him out

[bravesfanMatt]

Wonder twin powers activate.

[thethe]

Notice the broadcast never calls this out

I always listen to the away broadcast

[Ozzie Swanson]

I really wish someone could figure out why this idiot can't consistently throw strikes.

Seems a little harsh toward our second best starter.

[GeorgiaGirl]

Newk's peripherals are still solid all around but with the K's being gone all of a sudden it is starting to trend backward. It's interesting, I wonder if xwOBA is still not far from wOBA off him.

[msstate7]

Lyles has to hate dansby

[thethe]

Good ab from bae

[bravesfanMatt]

Come on Dansby. I am getting tired.

[Ozzie Swanson]

Bae with a couple of great at bats tonight.

[thethe]

Newk's peripherals are still solid all around but with the K's being gone all of a sudden it is starting to trend backward. It's interesting, I wonder if xwOBA is still not far from wOBA off him.

Gb rate continues to increase

[thethe]

There's our boy!

[msstate7]

Dansby has had 2 outstanding AB

[Ozzie Swanson]

Really love seeing Bae covering the outside corner.

[bravesfanMatt]

Wonder twin powers activate.

Form of a rally.

[thethe]

Not sure I condone the strategy of walking the opposing pitcher ...

Great strategy!

[Oklahomabrave]

Good hit off a slider for Dansby. Small in the grand scheme, but encouraging nonetheless.

[bravesfanMatt]

Feel like we should have more than three runs

[thethe]

Newks got poor command tonight

[atl717]

Newk has looked bad today. Lucky to give up nothing. Bad control, not fooling anyone.

[bravesfanMatt]

Newks got poor command tonight

Missing up and away. Off mechanically.

Wow. Thanks ump

[thethe]

Fortunate call. He deserved it after a series of bad calls

[thethe]

Missing up and away. Off mechanically.

Wow. Thanks ump

He doesn't seem to be thrilled with the landing area of the mound

[bravesfanMatt]

Kurt needs to visit him. Nurse him through six. But don’t let him go to far in this game.

[bravesfanMatt]

Settled down nicely after the walk.

[thethe]

As usual most of the threat from the opposition is due to walks. Newks another year away from reaching his potential

[bravesfanMatt]

FF feeling it tonight.

[chop2chip]

I tend to agree with the sentiment that it feels like Freddie is having a down year, but he’s arguably a front runner for MVP this year. He’s as consistent of player as peak Chipper Jones as we have ever had.

[bravesfanMatt]

There is our four runs. Hell. put Luke Jackson in and let’s close this puppy down.

[msstate7]

What's the latest on acuna?

[bravesfanMatt]

Wonder twin powers about to put this away.

[Ozzie Swanson]

What's the latest on acuna?

Still experiencing soreness in his knee/back. Braves hope he'll be able to start some baseball activities later this week or next week. Needs to complete a rehab assignment before coming back. Consensus seems to be at least 2 more weeks before he returns.

[thewupk]

What's the latest on acuna?

who needs him. we have culberson

[thewupk]

Wonder twin powers about to put this away.

good call

[thethe]

Bae!

[bravesfanMatt]

Wonder twins POWER!!!

[chop2chip]

Take away three injury riddled weeks and Dansby is having an all star season.

[CrimsonCowboy]

Good night for Dansby

[Ozzie Swanson]

who needs him. we have culberson

People suggesting Machado/Harper in free agency are stupid. We already have the best power bat in the majors in faux BAE.

[AerchAngel]

Wonder twins POWER!!!

Isn't it"Wonder Twins activate" so they could have their changling powers?

I am old school sorry, I watched those on TV when I was a youngster.

[msstate7]

In my best enscheff voice... remember when we were ready to move on from Swanson? .790 ops

[bravesfanMatt]

The friars deserve this for beating up on our Brazilian trout.

[thewupk]

Take away three injury riddled weeks and Dansby is having an all star season.

Based on WAR he still is which is pretty incredible. His defense has been beastly.

[Runnin]

This bunch likes being in 1st Place.

[bravesfanMatt]

This bunch likes being in 1st Place.

Me too

[thewupk]

Isn't it"Wonder Twins activate" so they could have their changling powers?

I am old school sorry, I watched those on TV when I was a youngster.

you are correct sir

[msstate7]

Give albies the rest of the game off

[bravesfanMatt]

Time to fight

[thewupk]

their defense is horrible minus hosmer

[msstate7]

Save some of these boots for tomorrow, Padres

[bravesfanMatt]

Isn't it"Wonder Twins activate" so they could have their changling powers?

I am old school sorry, I watched those on TV when I was a youngster.

https://media1.tenor.com/images/d13011a9c95972a35d5b6e592e0219fd/tenor.gif?itemid=6046723

[thewupk]

freeman is a triple away!

[bravesfanMatt]

Cycle alert.

[chop2chip]

Based on WAR he still is which is pretty incredible. His defense has been beastly.

The power is the key for him to be a good offensive player. It’s a huge development if he can sustain a close to .200 ISO.

[bravesfanMatt]

Professional showing professional curiosity

[Orphan Black]

freeman is a triple away!

He probably should have had a triple in the first...probably wishing he'd run a little harder on that double.

[bravesfanMatt]

freeman is a triple away!

Technically since Charlie and Dansby are clones. They are only a triple away as well.

[chop2chip]

It’s a shame fluke injuries have robbed Freddie of his peak. He could legitimately be on a HOF pace with those extra 450 or so plate appearances (not to mention how those injuries impacted another 500 or so at bats).

With that said, if he can age like Votto it’s still a real possibility.

[Garmel]

Luke Jackson will probably get some work tonight.

[bravesfanMatt]

He probably should have had a triple in the first...probably wishing he'd run a little harder on that double.

Yep.

[thewupk]

It’s a shame fluke injuries have robbed Freddie of his peak. He could legitimately be on a HOF pace with those extra 450 or so plate appearances (not to mention how those injuries impacted another 500 or so at bats).

With that said, if he can age like Votto it’s still a real possibility.

Chipper still managed with him losing seasons worth of ABs in his 30s

[chop2chip]

Chipper still managed with him losing seasons worth of ABs in his 30s
Chipper was a freak, man. Won a batting title at age 37 and was still an all star caliber player into his 40’s. Without the injuries he could have had a 100 WAR career.

Pretty good chance we don’t have a player as great as him play for the Braves again in our lifetime.

[msstate7]

Chipper was a freak, man. Won a batting title at age 37 and was still an all star caliber player into his 40’s. Without the injuries he could have had a 100 WAR career.

Pretty good chance we don’t have a player as great as him play for the Braves again in our lifetime.

Brah, we about to have 3 trouts (acuna, Pache, and waters) in our OF

[thewupk]

Chipper was a freak, man. Won a batting title at age 37 and was still an all star caliber player into his 40’s. Without the injuries he could have had a 100 WAR career.

Pretty good chance we don’t have a player as great as him play for the Braves again in our lifetime.

Riley.....

Yeah Chipper was a beast.

[thewupk]

Brah, we about to have 3 trouts (acuna, Pache, and waters) in our OF

Trout Nation

[chop2chip]

Ender needs to have a minor injury keep him out of the lineup for a few weeks. Needs a hard reset.

[msstate7]

Ender needs to have a minor injury keep him out of the lineup for a few weeks. Needs a hard reset.

And roll with Bourjas?

[Hudson2]

Newcomb has really turned a corner. Even not getting many strikeouts this game he’s not generating hard contact.

[chop2chip]

And roll with Bourjas?

What’s the difference between Bourjos and the guy we have been playing the past four weeks?

[msstate7]

What’s the difference between Bourjos and the guy we have been playing the past four weeks?
Not sure bourjas is good defender anymore

[BeanieAntics]

Newcomb just got his ERA down to 2.49. When was the last time that we had two starters with an ERA under 2.50 in early June?

[thewupk]

Bae Be Rollin

[Garmel]

I think Dansby's wrist is healed.

[thewupk]

Newcomb just got his ERA down to 2.49. When was the last time that we had two starters with an ERA under 2.50 in early June?

Holy Trinity days

[bravesfanMatt]

Should have tried for a triple there Dansby.

[msstate7]

Newcomb just got his ERA down to 2.49. When was the last time that we had two starters with an ERA under 2.50 in early June?

Jenkins and Cahill in 2016?

[thewupk]

797 OPS for Bae now

[chop2chip]

Not sure bourjas is good defender anymore

Focus more on the hard reset part of my post and less on the replacement angle.

[TURBO]

https://media3.giphy.com/media/SYCKlCW1ccQqA/200w.gif

[chop2chip]

Ozzie really, really, really needs to learn to take a walk. That swing on 3-2 was inexcusable.

[msstate7]

Get Markakis out of game after this inning

[thewupk]

Freddie is perfection

[bravesfanMatt]

Get Markakis out of game after this inning

Mass subs. Heck maybe put Sam Freeman at first.

[bravesfanMatt]

This inning escalated quickly.

[thewupk]

I think this game is over now

[Garmel]

Save some for tomorrow, boys.

[thewupk]

Freeman will get another shot at a 5 hit night

[Hudson2]

Markakis deserves to be an all star this year the way he’s played. Didn’t realize he’s never been one before.

[jpx7]

I’m not watching the game, btw.

Shouldn’t matter, tbh.

[chop2chip]

Great at bat, Ender.

[bravesfanMatt]

Man. FF might get another shot at the triple.

[thewupk]

Markakis deserves to be an all star this year the way he’s played. Didn’t realize he’s never been one before.

Definitely. He's 2nd among all NL outfielders in fWAR

[bravesfanMatt]

Freeman will get another shot at a 5 hit night

Unless he is subbed. You are correct.

[bravesfanMatt]

Jackson > Allard > Newk.

[zbhargrove]

Man... I'm still not 100% confident in them but Newcomb and Folty have really taken huge steps forward this year. If it continues they could be the cornerstones of a very special rotation for years.

[bravesfanMatt]

Jackson > Allard > Newk.

Dumbass

[sturg33]

Off topic but how amazing is Max Scherzer? Basically an auto win

[BeanieAntics]

Man... I'm still not 100% confident in them but Newcomb and Folty have really taken huge steps forward this year. If it continues they could be the cornerstones of a very special rotation for years.

I've always been a believer that Folty would eventually figure it out. Newcomb I was a little more skeptical of because of the walk rate, but he is quickly turning me around. If those two continue this level of domination this rotation will be disgusting for a long time.

[AerchAngel]

Luke is scary

[BeanieAntics]

Off topic but how amazing is Max Scherzer? Basically an auto win

I think the Nats pressed left, right, left, right, left, right, left, right, left, right, left, right on the d-pad to get him. I tip my hat to anyone who gets that reference.

[chop2chip]

Off topic but how amazing is Max Scherzer? Basically an auto win

What an amazing job by Rizzo and Nats owner to step up and offer that creative contract. That’s been an epic win for them.

It’s crazy that team can’t win a series with Scherzer and Strasburg and that great lineup.

[chop2chip]

What’s the difference between Julio and Spangenberg’s stuff?

[CrimsonCowboy]

Falcons have taken a 14-0 lead over the Char.............oh wait. They’re in LA now.


Never mind about that joke.

[AerchAngel]

Just a little bit outside.

[AerchAngel]

Wow, did they notify Air Traffic Control on that blast?

[CrimsonCowboy]

Geez Jackson

[CrimsonCowboy]

http://i.imgur.com/P6x0U.gif

[TURBO]

https://media.giphy.com/media/4wMlW2RcOCVCU/giphy.gif

[thewupk]

Off topic but how amazing is Max Scherzer? Basically an auto win

He had an immaculate inning tonight which is like the rarest thing ever

[AerchAngel]

Not complete, we need the Acuna/Albies one.

[jpx7]

Good win.

[jpx7]

He had an immaculate inning tonight which is like the rarest thing ever

What’s the name for three outs on three pitches? I’m pretty impressed with that, too.

[Mrs. Meta]

What’s the name for three outs on three pitches?

A Hard Penis.

[bravesfanMatt]

What’s the name for three outs on three pitches? I’m pretty impressed with that, too.

JT’s wet dream I think.

[CyYoung31]

Shouldn’t matter, tbh.

I was pooping, tbh.

[jpx7]

I was pooping, tbh.

Even better, tbh.

[UNCBlue012]

Newk really looks like the real-deal. Walks are an issue but dude just rarely has games where he allows consistently hard contact.

[striker42]

He had an immaculate inning tonight which is like the rarest thing ever

IIRC, Buddy Carlyle did that for us.

[Freshmaker]

https://j.gifs.com/6RAW77.gif

[AerchAngel]

https://j.gifs.com/6RAW77.gif

Now the morning is complete. Thanks Freshmaker!

[thewupk]

IIRC, Buddy Carlyle did that for us.

Yup. The only Atlanta Brave to do that

[thewupk]

What’s the name for three outs on three pitches? I’m pretty impressed with that, too.

Not sure if it has one. Hitters Stupidity maybe?

[50PoundHead]

Definitely. He's 2nd among all NL outfielders in fWAR

Right behind Kemp?

[50PoundHead]

Not sure if it has one. Hitters Stupidity maybe?

I was thinking Dead Enders.

[thewupk]

Right behind Kemp?

Cain

[thewupk]

I was thinking Dead Enders.

solid choice

[msstate7]

Dansby at 1.5 fWAR in 46 games ~ 5.3 over 162 games

Dansby at 1.9 bWAR in 45 games (no update yet) ~ 6.8 over 162 games

[jpack1]

Dansby at 1.5 fWAR in 46 games ~ 5.3 over 162 games

Dansby at 1.9 bWAR in 45 games (no update yet) ~ 6.8 over 162 games


That any good? In my best Joe Simpson voice

[thewupk]

That any good? In my best Joe Simpson voice

But what about his opposite field hit total?

[thewupk]

Dansby at 1.5 fWAR in 46 games ~ 5.3 over 162 games

Dansby at 1.9 bWAR in 45 games (no update yet) ~ 6.8 over 162 games

Doubt he gets any support but he's playing at an all-star level. The report on his defense in the minors was legit.

[Southcack77]

Dansby at 1.5 fWAR in 46 games ~ 5.3 over 162 games

Dansby at 1.9 bWAR in 45 games (no update yet) ~ 6.8 over 162 games


huge portion of that is defense (which I find questionable component of WAR as a percentage), but he also has that 110 wRC+ with some reason to believe his K rate should come down a good bit and his walk rate go up a tad.

He's been great in the field, which honestly was as big a part of his disappointing season last year as his bat for me.

[DirkPiggler]

But what about his opposite field hit total?

Not nearly as important as the number of times he moved up the runner with a ground out to the right side.

[NYCBrave]

Today is a must win game. We're essentially facing what amounts to a bullpen game for the Padres.

[msstate7]

Dansby at 1.5 fWAR in 46 games ~ 5.3 over 162 games

Dansby at 1.9 bWAR in 45 games (no update yet) ~ 6.8 over 162 games

BR updated... Dansby at 2.3 bWAR in 46 games ~ 8.1 over 162. BR loves Swanson

[Enscheff]

Newk really looks like the real-deal. Walks are an issue but dude just rarely has games where he allows consistently hard contact.

What Newk is doing right now is completely unsustainable, but the results are fact, and the Braves have certainly benefited greatly.

His Ks are down, his BBs are still an issue, and qualified SP has ever held a 0.39 HR/9 over a full season this decade (lowest is 0.59).

His xFIP is 4.02, and just like Albies HR rate regressed, so too will Newk's.

[Tapate50]

What Newk is doing right now is completely unsustainable, but the results are fact, and the Braves have certainly benefited greatly.

His Ks are down, his BBs are still an issue, and qualified SP has ever held a 0.39 HR/9 over a full season this decade (lowest is 0.59).



His xFIP is 4.02, and just like Albies HR rate regressed, so too will Newk's.

The only hitch and I’m sure this is displayed in one of the stats, is that hitters just don’t get solid contact on Newcomb.

The stuff just didn’t go away so the Ks will be back. I don’t think he’ll be THIS good, but he’s shown he certainly CAN be.

[msstate7]

What Newk is doing right now is completely unsustainable, but the results are fact, and the Braves have certainly benefited greatly.

His Ks are down, his BBs are still an issue, and qualified SP has ever held a 0.39 HR/9 over a full season this decade (lowest is 0.59).

His xFIP is 4.02, and just like Albies HR rate regressed, so too will Newk's.

How do we know his K rate won't go back up? If that happens, doesn't it offset some of the regression?

[Orphan Black]

The gal who caught the foul ball from Ender in her beer cup and then chugged the beer is getting her 15 minutes on yahoo.

[UNCBlue012]

What Newk is doing right now is completely unsustainable, but the results are fact, and the Braves have certainly benefited greatly.

His Ks are down, his BBs are still an issue, and qualified SP has ever held a 0.39 HR/9 over a full season this decade (lowest is 0.59).

His xFIP is 4.02, and just like Albies HR rate regressed, so too will Newk's.

I don't think he's 2.50 ERA good, but the guy will likely regress to being 3.40-3.60, which is super solid. He's still the real deal!

[thewupk]

BR updated... Dansby at 2.3 bWAR in 46 games ~ 8.1 over 162. BR loves Swanson

DRS vs UZR. Some difference there but Swanson is playing at a 1st tier defensive SS. Great to see after last years debacle. We made the correct decision in keeping him at short.

[Garmel]

I don't think he's 2.50 ERA good, but the guy will likely regress to being 3.40-3.60, which is super solid. He's still the real deal!

Exactly. He's not an ace but he will migrate to a 3. Perhaps more if control gets better.

[msstate7]

DRS vs UZR. Some difference there but Swanson is playing at a 1st tier defensive SS. Great to see after last years debacle. We made the correct decision in keeping him at short.

Yep. I'm surprised albies is a negative defender at 2b. He looks good to me, but I guess my eyes can fool me

[GeorgiaGirl]

What Newk is doing right now is completely unsustainable, but the results are fact, and the Braves have certainly benefited greatly.

His Ks are down, his BBs are still an issue, and qualified SP has ever held a 0.39 HR/9 over a full season this decade (lowest is 0.59).

His xFIP is 4.02, and just like Albies HR rate regressed, so too will Newk's.

And on the other hand...his FIP is still in the low 3's, there's some hope that FIP could be a better indicator than xFIP on him because he limits hard contact, although not to a .39 HR/9, and statcast stays his xwOBA is still only a little higher than wOBA and hard contact is still at 28.3% (which is down from last year). All of the statcast stats are very good on him still and near the best in the NL.

The only indicator that I'd say is "meh" is xFIP. Maybe we need to see individual games though from statcast.

[Enscheff]

How do we know his K rate won't go back up? If that happens, doesn't it offset some of the regression?

Stuff (velocity, specifically) and K rates typically decline in the early 20s. Newk is about to turn 25. His K rate is probably on its way down already.

Newk's real improvements are going to come through improving his control, which he has done a little bit this year. The competing factors will be how much he can improve his control vs how much his stuff declines.

Just like I warned about MAdams and Albies unsustainable HR/FB rates normalizing, I'm warning about Newk's normalizing in the other direction (it's currently an absurd 4.9%). What both Newk and Folty are doing is completely unsustainable, no matter how many "they just don't give up solid contact" comments folks want to make.

Charmed seasons happen for a half season quite frequently, and sometimes they carry on for a full year, but they are never sustainable. Just ask Chris Johnson.

[UNCBlue012]

Stuff and K rates typically decline in the early 20s. Newk is about to turn 25. His K rate is probably on its way down already.

Newk's real improvements are going to come through improving his control, which he has done a little bit this year. The competing factors will be how much he can improve his control vs how much his stuff declines.

Just like I warned about MAdams and Albies unsustainable HR/FB rates normalizing, I'm warning about Newk's normalizing in the other direction (it's currently an absurd 4.9%). What both Newk and Folty are doing is completely unsustainable, no matter how many "they just don't give up solid contact" comments folks want to make.

Charmed seasons happen for a half season quite frequently, and sometimes they carry on for a full year, but they are never sustainable. Just ask Chris Johnson.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYmOqPFyJPw

[thewupk]

The only hitch and I’m sure this is displayed in one of the stats, is that hitters just don’t get solid contact on Newcomb.

The stuff just didn’t go away so the Ks will be back. I don’t think he’ll be THIS good, but he’s shown he certainly CAN be.

This is true. His average exit velocity on FB/LD is the 6th lowest in baseball among starters. Couple that with the fact he's getting a true fly ball % of 22.8% you can see why he's not giving up many homeruns.

Compare that to Julio who's true fly ball rate is 32.6% and 28th highest exit velocity on LD/FB and his homerun totals are really high.

The exit velocity and angle (fly ball, etc) against Newk really shows up in the barrels against stat. Barrels is a term to defined a great launch angle with great exit velocity. These are batted ball events where hitters just crush it. Newks Barrels per batted ball event against is only 2.8%. That's the 2nd best among starters this year.

Some regression for Sean is likely but his current profile, imo, will lead to a low homerun rate.

[Super]

Some regression for Sean is likely but his current profile, imo, will lead to a low homerun rate.

probably not all-time low, however

[thewupk]

probably not all-time low, however

Certainly not. But I think it will be a healthy amount below 1 HR/9. Assuming he can keep his walks where they are I see a mid to high 3 FIP from him.

[GeorgiaGirl]

Here's Sean Newcomb's statcast page:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/sean-newcomb-656794?stats=career-r-pitching-mlb

[UNCBlue012]

1004403855260573696

[Enscheff]

This is true. His average exit velocity on FB/LD is the 6th lowest in baseball among starters. Couple that with the fact he's getting a true fly ball % of 22.8% you can see why he's not giving up many homeruns.

Compare that to Julio who's true fly ball rate is 32.6% and 28th highest exit velocity on LD/FB and his homerun totals are really high.

The exit velocity and angle (fly ball, etc) against Newk really shows up in the barrels against stat. Barrels is a term to defined a great launch angle with great exit velocity. These are batted ball events where hitters just crush it. Newks Barrels per batted ball event against is only 2.8%. That's the 2nd best among starters this year.

Some regression for Sean is likely but his current profile, imo, will lead to a low homerun rate.

This is absolutely true.

Newk has the profile of a guy who is projected to allow 0.8-1.0 HR/9 due to his high K rate and plus curve generating tons of GBs.

Folty, on the other hand, doesn't generate many GBs, and that leads to him being projected for a HR/9 of 1.2+.

Both are sitting around half their expected HR/9...and it is simply not sustainable. Newk's rate especially unsustainable.

Why does that matter? Because at the trade deadline the Braves are going to have to decide how many future wins they want to convert into present wins to push for a playoff run. In order to do that, they will need to accurately project their chances going forward.

The Braves aren't going to make decisions based on Albies HR/FB rate being 20%+, and they aren't going to make those projections based on Newk's HR/FB rate being 4.9%. They are going to normalize those numbers and make accurate projections.

[Super]

enscheff, what are using to say Ks typically go down for pitchers at this point? looking at just the top 30 pitchers in WAR on FG, a lot (majority?) of them had k-rate spikes after a few seasons in the league.

[Enscheff]

enscheff, what are using to say Ks typically go down for pitchers at this point? looking at just the top 30 pitchers in WAR on FG, a lot (majority?) of them had k-rate spikes after a few seasons in the league.

The best pitchers are the best pitchers because their K rates went up. That doesn't mean it's common for that to happen.

Here is the best article I've seen on pitcher aging curves. I actually have it bookmarked:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pitcher-aging-curves-starters-and-relievers/

TLDR:

Velocity decreases immediately, but K/9 stays flat until the mid-20s due to improved control (using BB/9 as a proxy). This push/pull between velocity declining and control improving keeps FIP flat-ish until the late 20s. By the time a SP get into his late 20s, it's time to unload him...aka the Rays model.

[thewupk]

Velocity decreases immediately, but K/9 stays flat until the mid-20s due to improved control (using BB/9 as a proxy). This push/pull between velocity declining and control improving keeps FIP flat-ish until the late 20s. By the time a SP get into his late 20s, it's time to unload him...aka the Rays model.

see Julio Teheran

[bravesfanMatt]

Has anyone noticed Newks fastball is different speeds. Last night the gun was showing 89 to 95 but living mostly in the 91 to 94ish range. Wonder if he is taking some off to work on control.

[Orphan Black]

Has anyone noticed Newks fastball is different speeds. Last night the gun was showing 89 to 95 but living mostly in the 91 to 94ish range. Wonder if he is taking some off to work on control.

I noticed that too and I think he took some off once they got the 8 run lead. I think he was trying not to walk anyone.

[Enscheff]

Has anyone noticed Newks fastball is different speeds. Last night the gun was showing 89 to 95 but living mostly in the 91 to 94ish range. Wonder if he is taking some off to work on control.

I've seen Newk toss them up there feeling for strikes. Not a fan of that tactic, at all.

Learn to repeat at 93 rather than varying speeds for control...which is probably counterproductive.

[Southcack77]

How do we know his K rate won't go back up? If that happens, doesn't it offset some of the regression?

Honestly, I agree with the underlying message that Newcomb is going to regress.

The tone seems fairly dire, but it's not that big a deal unless you thought Newcomb and Folty were both #1 lock down aces.

I don't see any particular reason why the decline in his K rate over two months is necessarily determinative. It would seem entirely possible for it to pop back up with more of a sample. Unless their is a physical issue driving it, but I don't know why we would conclude that.

Personally, I think given Newcomb's control problems that his pitching more to contact isn't such a bad thing. May well let him stay deeper into games, given his weak contact rates.

While that may spike his results somewhat, it may well be better for the team to trade that off for longer outings. Don't know, depends on how you feel about the depth of the Braves pen.

[GeorgiaGirl]

Honestly, I agree with the underlying message that Newcomb is going to regress.

The tone seems fairly dire, but it's not that big a deal unless you thought Newcomb and Folty were both #1 lock down aces.

I don't see any particular reason why the decline in his K rate over two months is necessarily determinative. It would seem entirely possible for it to pop back up with more of a sample. Unless their is a physical issue driving it, but I don't know why we would conclude that.

Personally, I think given Newcomb's control problems that his pitching more to contact isn't such a bad thing. May well let him stay deeper into games, given his weak contact rates.

While that may spike his results somewhat, it may well be better for the team to trade that off for longer outings. Don't know, depends on how you feel about the depth of the Braves pen.

With predictive stats/sabermetrics, I'd rather not just use 1 stat. That's my only case here. I'd rather use the whole deal.

Yes Newcomb is getting lucky. No, it's not dire right now if you use the whole shebang of stuff available to you and xwOBA and xSLG off pitchers is available. Both are minimal differences. Yes he likely shouldn't be allowing so few HR, but his xSLG is like .302. That's not far from the actual SLG off him.