Talkingchop article about trading Kimbrel

[Enscheff]

http://www.talkingchop.com/2013/10/22/4863806/time-to-trade-kimbrel#comment_tease

He basically says it's now or never to trade Kimbrel. While I don't completely disagree that it MAY be wise to trade him this offseason, I do disagree that this is the only time to get value for him.

Personally, I think Wren should hold onto him for at least this year, and then trade him next offseason or at this year's deadline if the Braves fall out of contention. Why? Glad you asked...

1. Based on Pap's arb numbers, Kimbrel will likely make the following salaries in 2014/15/16: $7M+/$10M+/$13M+. There will be no problem fitting a $7M salary into the budget next year. No other legit closer can signed for that price anyways.

2. If Venters, EOF and Walden were all returning at full strength next year the BP might be able to haqndle the loss of Kimbrel. None of them ended the year healthy and/or effective, so losing Kimbrel would hurt even more.

3. The big budget teams won't flinch at $10M-$13M per year for the best closer in the game, so losing one more year of "cheap" control shouldn't hurt his value by much. Kimbrel's value lies in the fact that he is THE elite closer, not the fact that he is still affordable.

Now, if someone offers something silly for Kimbrel, then Wren has to listen. What constitutes silly? The Rangers offering Profar. The Yanks offering Robertson for Kimbrel plus Uggla and eating all of Uggla's money. Or someone else offering a cost controlled impact player at a position of need, or offering to eat Uggla's contract plus add a 9th inning BP arm.

[cajunrevenge]

As always depends what is offered but I would definitely be shopping him. We could sign Nathan,Balfour, or Wilson for the same money Kimbrel would make in arbitration. Kimbrel's real value comes in the playoffs, how can we make it in the playoffs if our best player only pitches 1.1 innings in a whole series. The 12-15 innings a closer pitches in the playoffs in a world series run is where the real difference between Kimbrel and the average closer show up. Since we are stuck with a manger who treats October like a game in April we might as well have an average closer instead of an elite one.

I dont think Kimbrel will be traded but if he is then I think its in a scenario where we get prospects to flip to the Rays for Price. We would still need to add on to what we get for Kimbrel but it would lessen the impact on the farm system.

[thethe]

Kimbrel was great when he was cheap but he has more value to the Braves moving forward in a potential return then what his value would be as our closer. Bottom line is we can't afford him in two years. Always better to trade a guy a year too early than a year too late.

[50PoundHead]

I know the closer role is somewhat overvalued, but I've seen teams without good closers and if you are a team that is going to have to play at the margins (which the Braves might have to) to contend, the closer takes on a larger and more valuable role. That said, if someone bowled the Braves over with an offer, they'd have to listen. But make no mistake, you build your bullpen from the 9th inning backwards and if Kimbrel isn't around, you won't be starting on solid ground.

I don't know how much Nathan has left in the tank, but he's been very good over his career. Brian Wilson might be good for the money, but he's such a freak.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Ive been on this one for awhile but what is interesting is todays Cincy Enquirer has an article up about trading Chapman for Castellanos.
That was my thought some time back tho i would want more such as Rondon thrown in.
Then Detroit Free Press lists Tigers needs as closer, LFer and 2nd. I highly doubt that they would even sniff at Uggla. But would Kimbrel, Wood, Justin Upton get their attention for Castellanos (our future 3rd), Scherszer (our ACE for 2014) Rondon (a young pen arm) and Porcello (our 5th starter if Hudson doesnt come back and a very good trade chip if he does) Money is just about a wash BTW.

[Heyward]

I said this on scout and got bashed for it.

Robertson has 1 yr left of arby, heck no.

Profar i would definately do even if we have to throw in something, i doubt that happens though.

There are guys like Benoit, Wilson, Balfour, Mujica, etc you could sign for 4-5 mil for 2 years, and use that extra money on a bat, or keeping in-house talent.

[zitothebrave]

Disagree with it.

If someone offers us something bonkers for him then you do it, but no one is going to do that.

[Heyward]

Disagree with it.

If someone offers us something bonkers for him then you do it, but no one is going to do that.

What's bonkers?

A Taveras/Bogarts/Profar type.

That's unlikely.

Ideally he'd sign a team-friendly extension but if not, you have to shop him, have too.

You just cant have a closer making 15-20 million, they dont have that type of value.

[zitothebrave]

Yes that type of player.

Otherwise it doesn't make sense to trade the greatest closer in baseball as one of the best teams in baseball. Unless we can do something like Kimbrel and Uggla for Zobrist or something along that line I won't do it.

[weso1]

I say keep him. Need to try to win the world series these next two seasons whilest we have this roster. At some point you just have to go for it. Now is the time to go for it while we have Freeman, Heyward and J UP on the roster for the next couple of seasons.

[gtcway]

If someone is willing to overpay, Wren definitely has to listen and consider it. But, my feeling is that next year, if BJ can just be average again, and we can get rid of Uggla and everyone else stays about the same or improves, our playoff outlook is much better. Do we want to enter the playoffs next year without Kimbrel?
Now, if the Braves are out of the playoff picture at the deadline, push to trade him, but again, only if someone overpays.

[thethe]

I think a team will trade two top prospects for Kimbrel. He is a closer. You have to make that deal. Braves can find someone else.

[Runnin]

http://www.talkingchop.com/2013/10/22/4863806/time-to-trade-kimbrel#comment_tease

2. If Venters, EOF and Walden were all returning at full strength next year the BP might be able to haqndle the loss of Kimbrel. None of them ended the year healthy and/or effective, so losing Kimbrel would hurt even more.

Venters, EOF, Walden and likely Kimbrel as well, will not return at full strength but that's not a big worry. I would definitely listen to offers but I wouldn't trade him for anything less than an elite ace.

[thethe]

Venters, EOF, Walden and likely Kimbrel as well, will not return at full strength but that's not a big worry. I would definitely listen to offers but I wouldn't trade him for anything less than an elite ace.

Thats unrealistic IMO. Braves dont even need an elite ace. It doesn't guarantee anything. Braves need to ensure that there will be talent through the pipeline in two years.

[cajunrevenge]

I really like the idea of signing Brian Wilson for closer. He will be 32 next year and he showed he was healthy after TJ surgery. Pitchers's arms tend to be healthier the first 5 years after TJ surgery and closers typically can pitch well into their 30's. He also has great playoff/world series experience having allowed 1 run in 19.2 playoff innings total. I would love to sign him and use him and Kimbrel for one year together then trade Kimbrel next offseason. We have the money in the short term, its not until 2015 that things start to get tight. As much as people say we needed an ace to beat the Dodgers we would have gone to game 5 with a matchup Minor/Greinke that if we could have just got thru the 8th inning. I know paying 2 closers isnt considered the wisest investment, but its more about October. I think this was the idea behind acquiring Walden but he was not healthy in October.

[Perfect Cell]

Braves aren't a team that sells high, certainly not on relievers. eof, and venters are two relievers that could have been traded for value I doubt kimbrel is even considered as a trade candidate


and to be honest I wouldn't trade him either

[yeezus]

I think Wilson is always on the verge of getting blown up. He was only really good for a short time period. I'd pass.

[yeezus]

Braves aren't a team that sells high, certainly not on relievers. eof, and venters are two relievers that could have been traded for value I doubt kimbrel is even considered as a trade candidate


and to be honest I wouldn't trade him either

I'd say they're different scenarios in a lot of ways. Venters and EOF weren't closers, or as dominant as Kimbrel. Kimbrel is historically brilliant.

[Heyward]

We arent getting an ace for Kimbrel.

Boston made the WS with a rotation of Lester, Lackey, Bucholtz, and Peavy.

Good, yes, but outside of maybe Lester, not an ace level pitcher.

Pretty much like ours really.

[Perfect Cell]

I'd say they're different scenarios in a lot of ways. Venters and EOF weren't closers, or as dominant as Kimbrel. Kimbrel is historically brilliant.

I don't know if I agree. especially in 2011. Venters as as good as most closers in baseball and should have been jettisoned to a team that would have put him in the closers role.

[yeezus]

I don't know if I agree. especially in 2011. Venters as as good as most closers in baseball and should have been jettisoned to a team that would have put him in the closers role.

For better or worse, saves are looked at for RP. Venters also never had the K numbers Kimbrel has had. Venters was great, but Kimbrel is on a whole different level IMO.

[Bravephoton]

If you are the Yankees or Dodgers, you can pay a Mariano type closer through all the years of arbitration and a new multi-year deal afterwards.

Understand, Kimbrell is that type of closer because he is going to develop a change up which will make him next to unhittable.

The problem arises that the Braves can't do that for one inning, even as good as that inning is.

So our closer needs to come from the farm. And while his value is at it's highest, you trade him for great prospect value.

[yeezus]

I'm not opposed to trading Kimbrel. But I doubt we get a sufficient package.

[Heyward]

The Dodgers have Jansen who puts up stupid good numbers.

But Jansen-Kimbrel in the 8th/9th would be unfair.

[Runnin]

We arent getting an ace for Kimbrel.
I know but I don't want to trade Kimbrel even though his arm has to be either freakishly strong or ready to break down.

[ChapelHillMatt]

Have people forgotten how hard it is to find a good closer? It's not easy. Only the elite closers hold on to the job all year, most teams struggle to find someone to fill that role. I' not opposed to trading him if he brings back a great return but if we trade him we aren't going to be able to just plug someone else in and not miss a beat.

[Hudson2]

I love Kimbrel as much as the next but I'd rather keep Freeman and Heyward then have the best closer n baseball and pay him what it'll take. With as hard as he throws he will probably be a TJ candidate in the next few years. I'd really hate to trade him, but if we could reload the system while keeping some of our other players then I'm all for it.

[Heyward]

Have people forgotten how hard it is to find a good closer? It's not easy. Only the elite closers hold on to the job all year, most teams struggle to find someone to fill that role. I' not opposed to trading him if he brings back a great return but if we trade him we aren't going to be able to just plug someone else in and not miss a beat.

We cant find someone as good as him, he's the best in the game but...

But you gotta look at the financial part.

Could get someone like Benoit, Balfour, Mujica, Wilson, etc for a cheaper deal.

And improve the big league club somewhere else and use that money elsewhere

[The Chosen One]

If we had a Ted Turner payroll, we wouldn't even be having this discussion.

Problem is, we can't bank almost 15 million on a closer in the future when Freeman, Heyward, Simmons will eb due money in a few years. Especially since his arm could fall off at any time.

Oh, and he can't pitch 2 innings. :cooter:

[Bye Week]

We arent getting an ace for Kimbrel.

Boston made the WS with a rotation of Lester, Lackey, Bucholtz, and Peavy.

Good, yes, but outside of maybe Lester, not an ace level pitcher.

Pretty much like ours really.



Exactly. Everyone says you HAVE to have have an ace to make it. Well, Kershaw and Grienke are at home along with Verlander and Scherzer .

[Knucksie]

If you are the Yankees or Dodgers, you can pay a Mariano type closer through all the years of arbitration and a new multi-year deal afterwards.


Mariano Rivera was a unique situation, because he'd become an icon. Just because he made big money, doesn't mean that the Yankees are going automatically allocate the same salary for somebody else in the same role. Almost the same thing with the Dodgers, except that they don't have a history of big name closers, except for Gagne. Budget buster closers are far from the norm. Which brings us to how the moderator keeps returning to this same argument.

If there's some hidden market of teams, willing to pay upwards of $10 million/year for an elite closer and offer a fine package of prospects, let's have some names. Not some idle speculation, prospect wish list or fantasy league proposal.

The Phillies are probably already living to regret getting Papelbon. This brings us back to the Braves situation. We all know that Kimbrel is going to get expensive, and Papelbon money is going to be his benchmark. That said, the transition, whenever that might be, will be a lot more seamless. For instance, if Kimbrel were to get traded this off-season (and put me in the camp of those who think they'll just hold onto him until he's unaffordable), there are already internal options. If his arm is healthy, Walden could do it, and probably more effectively than Brian Wilson. Plus, add in the fact that JR Graham is being groomed for this role. So, this isn't exactly an area of concern.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Exactly. Everyone says you HAVE to have have an ace to make it. Well, Kershaw and Grienke are at home along with Verlander and Scherzer .

In an interview with DOB on Oct 15, Wren acknowledged that an ACE or TOR starter was an area of need. However, he didnt know if one of those was available.

Do Wren and his staff look at it differently than you??? Just asking especially since I know you are in the Price camp.

[gilesfan]

Trading Kimbrel without getting just an obsene return is stupid. Trade Kimbrel and then you are still going to have to overpay or trade decent prospects for a closer unless you want Jordan Walden closing out games for you.

Maybe Wren is thinking, well Fredi wont' use him, might as well get a piece Fredi will use.

[yeezus]

Trading Kimbrel without getting just an obsene return is stupid. Trade Kimbrel and then you are still going to have to overpay or trade decent prospects for a closer unless you want Jordan Walden closing out games for you.

Maybe Wren is thinking, well Fredi wont' use him, might as well get a piece Fredi will use.

If Wren were thinking that, I'd hope Fredi would be fired.

[PawPawMaxwell]

He may or may not ever be healthy again but Walden has closing experience. Avilan and Carpenter may possibly have closer ability. Whatever happened to Obispo?

[NYCBrave]

Exactly. Everyone says you HAVE to have have an ace to make it. Well, Kershaw and Grienke are at home along with Verlander and Scherzer .

And the Cardinals young pitchers are stepping up and pitching like aces, something our young pitchers FAILED to do.

[thethe]

Trading Kimbrel without getting just an obsene return is stupid. Trade Kimbrel and then you are still going to have to overpay or trade decent prospects for a closer unless you want Jordan Walden closing out games for you.

Maybe Wren is thinking, well Fredi wont' use him, might as well get a piece Fredi will use.

What would the actual impact on wins and losses be if Kimbrel were traded and an average closer replaced him?

[PawPawMaxwell]

What would the actual impact on wins and losses be if Kimbrel were traded and an average closer replaced him?

Good point. With decent production from 2nd base and a better bench, not to mention CF, this team as currently configured could win over 100 games. Kimbrel's absence would not diminish that total greatly.

[Enscheff]

What would the actual impact on wins and losses be if Kimbrel were traded and an average closer replaced him?

Hard to say, but it wouldn't be many more losses in reality. Kimbrel was 50/54 (92.6%), but he was only like 9th in MLB in save percentage. Guys who may be available like Nathan, Benoit, and Balfour were pretty much in the same range or better as far as save percentage last year.

There are obviously many other factors that make Kimbrel the best, but from the standpoint of simply closing out games most legit closers can do it at a 90% success rate.

[50PoundHead]

Hard to say, but it wouldn't be many more losses in reality. Kimbrel was 50/54 (92.6%), but he was only like 9th in MLB in save percentage. Guys who may be available like Nathan, Benoit, and Balfour were pretty much in the same range or better as far as save percentage last year.

There are obviously many other factors that make Kimbrel the best, but from the standpoint of simply closing out games most legit closers can do it at a 90% success rate.

You need to go a step deeper on analysis of saves (at least in my opinion). Bill James used to "grade" saves on difficulty (how big a lead is being protected, etc.). I dont know how Kimbrel stacks up in that regard.

[Russ2dollas]

Trading Kimbrel without getting just an obsene return is stupid. Trade Kimbrel and then you are still going to have to overpay or trade decent prospects for a closer unless you want Jordan Walden closing out games for you.

Maybe Wren is thinking, well Fredi wont' use him, might as well get a piece Fredi will use.

I thought you were an advanced metric guy.

The Braves should flip Kimbrel this year. It makes sense from a financial standpoint and from a common sense standpoint. This is where the Braves can maximize his value based on what he has done for them so far and what he can bring in return.

He's a 1 inning reliever who won't get to pitch much if this team can't score more runs. He's not part of our playoff picture b/c we don't score enough runs vs good pitching to matter.

Kimbrel needs to be sent away if we can get a long term answer at 2B/3B + some quality pieces or dump Uggla. I don't know what that is, but if you get a prospect who you think can play this year and be a future stud at 3B or 2B, then you build that package. Ask them to take Uggla. Most likely you get a young 3B with a high upside bat in low minors, and a couple of power arms.

We can do closer by committee based on match ups. We won't with Fredi, but it's what we should do.

I don't know if that stud guy is out there. I don't think Profar will be traded. I don't think someone like Olt would be a good enough prospect. It would have to be an elite guy.

[Enscheff]

You need to go a step deeper on analysis of saves (at least in my opinion). Bill James used to "grade" saves on difficulty (how big a lead is being protected, etc.). I dont know how Kimbrel stacks up in that regard.

Yes, but the point is that a legit closer will convert ~90% of his save opportunities. Someone like the guys I listed would likely have saved pretty much as many games as Kimbrel did this year given the same chances.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that the team will still be pretty much just as successful with a "good" closer rather than an "elite" closer. Especially if giving up Kimbrel allows Wren to fix 2B, unload Uggla, and/or bring in that "Ace" everyone is clamoring to obtain.

Upgrading from Uggla to a 3 WAR guy at 2B will help a lot more than downgrading from Kimbrel to someone like Benoit will hurt.

[Knucksie]

Kimbrel needs to be sent away if we can get a long term answer at 2B/3B + some quality pieces or dump Uggla. I don't know what that is, but if you get a prospect who you think can play this year and be a future stud at 3B or 2B, then you build that package. Ask them to take Uggla. Most likely you get a young 3B with a high upside bat in low minors, and a couple of power arms.

Who's willing to do all that?

[ChapelHillMatt]

If elite closers aren't that important and you could be just as good by replacing him with an average one then why would someone give up a great package for one?

[PawPawMaxwell]

Who's willing to do all that?
Det for Castellanos is still the best bet IMO.

Like it or not, our best and maybe only CHANCE to salvage anything with Uggla is Cincinnati. I look at Uggla as lost money. Question is: Is Phillips worth 24M over 4 years. Then again, we dont even know if Cincy is interested.

Would Texas have a need for Kimbrel and JUpton? Profar and some prospects from their deep farm. Would make dumping Uggla infinitely affordable.

[nsacpi]

If elite closers aren't that important and you could be just as good by replacing him with an average one then why would someone give up a great package for one?

Some GMs might have a different view. The contract the Phillies gave Papelbon suggests they see things differently. The Mets once gave K-Rod a ridiculous contract.

[PawPawMaxwell]

If elite closers aren't that important and you could be just as good by replacing him with an average one then why would someone give up a great package for one?
Teams on the cusp of greatness. Like Detroit. I keep harping on Detroit but if they had not had to go thru Rondon and Valverde BEFORE settling for Benoit, how much better would their record have been. Their bullpen was absolutely terrible this year. How many blown saves, how many blown holds?

[ChapelHillMatt]

Teams on the cusp of greatness. Like Detroit. I keep harping on Detroit but if they had not had to go thru Rondon and Valverde BEFORE settling for Benoit, how much better would their record have been. Their bullpen was absolutely terrible this year. How many blown saves, how many blown holds?

That pretty much illustrates my point. Finding someone to fill that role isn't easy. People are acting like just anybody can do it. Having that security blanket is pretty important, if you don't you could find yourself losing a lot of close games and/or having to warm up pitchers you don't end up using because you don't have confidence in the guy that is pitching the 9th. The reason the Braves have won so many close games the last few years is because our late inning relief was so dominant.

[jdunn]

Teams on the cusp of greatness. Like Detroit. I keep harping on Detroit but if they had not had to go thru Rondon and Valverde BEFORE settling for Benoit, how much better would their record have been. Their bullpen was absolutely terrible this year. How many blown saves, how many blown holds?

Just think what Detroit would have given up for Kimbrel at the deadline. I don't know if filling that role is easy, I don't think it is, just ask Wohlers, Kolb, Lidge, etc... At the moment, Kimbrel is putting together a HOF caliber career. If he was a right fielder, he'd be the talk of baseball, same as if he played in Boston or NY.

I know very little about hitting a baseball, maybe just a bit more than Uggla or BJ, but not much more. The one thing every major league ball player has is ability. The one thing that separates the average from the good and the great from the good is confidence, and I dare say there is very few if any major league ball players that step into the box confident that they are going to have success off of Kimbrel. You can't say that about average closers.

[nsacpi]

Anyone remember who the closers were for the Cardinals and Red Sox at the start of the season? How hard were they to replace? How hard were Venters and EOF to replace?

There has been a little revolution in baseball. Through some combination of natural selection and biomechanics, every pen has multiple pitchers with fastballs in the mid to high 90s. Potentially all of those guys can close. A decent pitching coach can tighten up their control and help them sharpen up their second pitch. And presto you have a David Carpenter. Of course a David Carpenter is not a Craig Kimbrel. As we saw. But he was a pretty good pitcher for us. Between Carpenter, Walden and Avilan I don't think we'd miss Kimbrel that much.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Just think what Detroit would have given up for Kimbrel at the deadline. I don't know if filling that role is easy, I don't think it is, just ask Wohlers, Kolb, Lidge, etc... At the moment, Kimbrel is putting together a HOF caliber career. If he was a right fielder, he'd be the talk of baseball, same as if he played in Boston or NY.

I know very little about hitting a baseball, maybe just a bit more than Uggla or BJ, but not much more. The one thing every major league ball player has is ability. The one thing that separates the average from the good and the great from the good is confidence, and I dare say there is very few if any major league ball players that step into the box confident that they are going to have success off of Kimbrel. You can't say that about average closers.
Ted Williams said the thing that separated him from the field when it came to hitting was his eye sight. Said his was something like 15/10 in a world where 20/20 is considered excellent. Maybe Uggla needs to read an eye chart.

[gilesfan]

I thought you were an advanced metric guy.

The Braves should flip Kimbrel this year. It makes sense from a financial standpoint and from a common sense standpoint. This is where the Braves can maximize his value based on what he has done for them so far and what he can bring in return.

He's a 1 inning reliever who won't get to pitch much if this team can't score more runs. He's not part of our playoff picture b/c we don't score enough runs vs good pitching to matter.

Kimbrel needs to be sent away if we can get a long term answer at 2B/3B + some quality pieces or dump Uggla. I don't know what that is, but if you get a prospect who you think can play this year and be a future stud at 3B or 2B, then you build that package. Ask them to take Uggla. Most likely you get a young 3B with a high upside bat in low minors, and a couple of power arms.

We can do closer by committee based on match ups. We won't with Fredi, but it's what we should do.

I don't know if that stud guy is out there. I don't think Profar will be traded. I don't think someone like Olt would be a good enough prospect. It would have to be an elite guy.


You can paint me with whatever brush you want, but elite closers on the level of Kimbrel are extremely valuable.

[Heyward]

You can paint me with whatever brush you want, but elite closers on the level of Kimbrel are extremely valuable.

Would you pay Kimbrel 15-20 million per year on a contract?

[Enscheff]

That pretty much illustrates my point. Finding someone to fill that role isn't easy. People are acting like just anybody can do it. Having that security blanket is pretty important, if you don't you could find yourself losing a lot of close games and/or having to warm up pitchers you don't end up using because you don't have confidence in the guy that is pitching the 9th. The reason the Braves have won so many close games the last few years is because our late inning relief was so dominant.

I don't think a single person stated "anyone" could be the closer. We are arguing that the dropoff from Kimbrel to someone like Nathan, Balfour or Benoit would not be very significant. Most are suggesting the team would be better off with someone like Nathan plaus the return for Kimbrel, assuming the player(s) Wren gets for Kimbrel is significant.

And there are many teams that wouldn't even blink when considering paying Kimbrel $15M per year. The Braves obviously can't afford to spend that kind of cash on 60 innings pitched, but the Yanks would likely do so without hesitation.

Not surprisingly, a lot of people on this board have a hard time understanding that "selling high on Kimbrel" doesn't mean anyone thinks any less of him. If Wren can get a significant return, he should do it. If not...well nobody is suggesting Wren unloads Kimbrel juist to avoid paying him $7M next year.

[Knucksie]

Det for Castellanos is still the best bet IMO.

Like it or not, our best and maybe only CHANCE to salvage anything with Uggla is Cincinnati. I look at Uggla as lost money. Question is: Is Phillips worth 24M over 4 years. Then again, we dont even know if Cincy is interested.

Would Texas have a need for Kimbrel and JUpton? Profar and some prospects from their deep farm. Would make dumping Uggla infinitely affordable.


Have to show that Castellanos & Profar are even available. Still looks like idle chit chat.

BTW, Texas has both Nelson Cruz and Alex Rios on their 40 man roster. No real sense of urgency anymore for them on Justin Upton, like at deadline.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Have to show that Castellanos & Profar are even available. Still looks like idle chit chat.

BTW, Texas has both Nelson Cruz and Alex Rios on their 40 man roster. No real sense of urgency anymore for them on Justin Upton, like at deadline.
Thats what the off season is for where fans are concerned. Idle chit chat I mean.
Castellanos is blocked obviously until at least Cabrera becomes DH. Profar the same unless Texas can rid themselves of Kinsler. Doesnt look likely that he will give up 2nd. Cruz is a FA in all likelyhood.

[50PoundHead]

I don't think a single person stated "anyone" could be the closer. We are arguing that the dropoff from Kimbrel to someone like Nathan, Balfour or Benoit would not be very significant. Most are suggesting the team would be better off with someone like Nathan plaus the return for Kimbrel, assuming the player(s) Wren gets for Kimbrel is significant.

And there are many teams that wouldn't even blink when considering paying Kimbrel $15M per year. The Braves obviously can't afford to spend that kind of cash on 60 innings pitched, but the Yanks would likely do so without hesitation.

Not surprisingly, a lot of people on this board have a hard time understanding that "selling high on Kimbrel" doesn't mean anyone thinks any less of him. If Wren can get a significant return, he should do it. If not...well nobody is suggesting Wren unloads Kimbrel juist to avoid paying him $7M next year.

Nathan = Little dropoff

Balfour = Some dropoff

Benoit = A lot of dropoff and ulcers all around.

But you'd probably be paying Nathan pretty much the same as you would be Kimbrel in 2014 and Nathan is going to want at least two years.

Other guys wouldn't be as expensive.

I think Carpenter's performance in the post-season would be enough to raise questions as to whether or not he's up to being closer.

I think if we're going to trade Kimbrel, this would be the off-season to do it because his salary will be such that it could be accommodated rather easily.

[ChapelHillMatt]

Not surprisingly, a lot of people on this board have a hard time understanding that "selling high on Kimbrel" doesn't mean anyone thinks any less of him. If Wren can get a significant return, he should do it. If not...well nobody is suggesting Wren unloads Kimbrel juist to avoid paying him $7M next year.

Then there are those (like me) who don't have a problem "selling high" (don't like using that phrase because Kimbrel is elite, selling high indicates he can't repeat what he's done and I think we know he can and will) but still realize the replacing him means you are filling one hole by creating another. I don't agree that the drop off would be minimal so we will agree to disagree I guess.

[VirginiaBrave]

I really don't get this crowd sometimes. Y'all want to win a championship and yet you all want the roster blown up every year. You know the A1 reason we have only one championship? We did not have a dominant closer 3/4's of the time. We do now. They do not grow on trees. The only conceiveable reason to trade Kimbrel at this time is if we could see into the future and knew he was going to breakdown. The bottom line is the Braves are going to have to start paying people if a championship is the goal and it may as well start with CK. I thought the "fire Fredi" crap was bad, but Lord...

[Carp]

I don't think anyone is going to offer a package of prospects worthy enough to warrant trading Kimbrell. Even Kimbrell for Castenallos isn't enough honestly.

Ride him till he's a FA then let him go for a draft pick. yeah paying him 15 million in couple yrs won't be fun, but we are going to need him if we plan on winning a WS with the short window we have with these players.

[zitothebrave]

I don't think anyone is going to offer a package of prospects worthy enough to warrant trading Kimbrell. Even Kimbrell for Castenallos isn't enough honestly.

Ride him till he's a FA then let him go for a draft pick. yeah paying him 15 million in couple yrs won't be fun, but we are going to need him if we plan on winning a WS with the short window we have with these players.

I hope we can afford him through FA, will be interesting to see if we can. But we can afford him as long as we don't make a foolish acquisition for the next 2 years. And depending on if we can keep both Jason and Justin keeping him til the end of his contract isn't out of the question.

The person who we basically have an either or with in regards to Kimbrel is Medlen. And yes I take Kimbrel over Medlen. I don't think there's a massive dropoff from Medlen to our next run of young guys like I do between Kimbrel and anyone we can bring into close. People want say finding a closer is easy and they're right, but finding a closer as good as Kimbrel is hard. How hard is it? From 1980 through today (which the 80s is when the use of a closer basically started) Kimbrel is 59th in fWAR in 227 IP, You know how many guys above him have 450 IP or less? Bryan Harvey and Eric Gagne. If Kimbrel over the next 2 years averages a 3 WAR per year (given his past not out of the question) he will jump all the way up to number 18, just behind John Wetteland. Lest say overt the next 4 years he averages 2.5 WAR per year, he will jump to number 9 or number 10. Depending on how Papelbon does over that same time frame, passing guys like Rob Nenn Tom Gordon, and K-Rod. Same time frame if he averages 3 would kick him up to (again depending on how active guys go) he will go from 6-8 (Nathan and Papelbon are active so who knows where they'll move up or slide down to)

Food for thought, in 227 innings, Kimbrel has a 9.2 fWAR, most likely HOFer Trevor Hoffman has a 23.0 fWAR in 1089.1 innings. If Kimbrel stays healthy there's little doubt in my mind he's at worst the second best closer ever to date.

This isn't a normal joe we're talking about. This isn't even a "great" closer like Papelbon or K-Rod we're talking about someone who can contend with Rivera for the top spot. Kimbrel is the Mike Trout of closers. If we're wise we'll sign him to a 3/27 deal this offseason to buy out his arby. Structure it pretty even so we can keep him through FA or trade him that last year because he'll be a bargain price.

[zitothebrave]

I don't think a single person stated "anyone" could be the closer. We are arguing that the dropoff from Kimbrel to someone like Nathan, Balfour or Benoit would not be very significant. Most are suggesting the team would be better off with someone like Nathan plaus the return for Kimbrel, assuming the player(s) Wren gets for Kimbrel is significant.

The thing is that you can make that case for almost any pitcher unless they're Wainwright, Kershaw, etc. The Dropoff from Medlen to XYZ isn't so much so lets trade him, the dropoff from Minor to ABC isn't so much so lets trade him.

Eventually you have to keep your talent together to see if they can make it work.

Except McCann the Braves can safely return their team from last year, they can then use the Mac money to improve the BP, or maybe take a big rotational gamble (Johnson or Halladay) or use it to restructure deals with Jason, Justin, and Freddie.

[clvclv]

Thats unrealistic IMO. Braves dont even need an elite ace. It doesn't guarantee anything. Braves need to ensure that there will be talent through the pipeline in two years.

If we've learned anything, it should be that NOTHING'S "unrealistic". Unlikely maybe, but never "unrealistic". I seem to recall quite a few people telling me that Justin Upton would never be a Brave - that that was "unrealistic". I seem to recall quite a few people stating that it was completely "unrealistic" to think that Evan Gattis would be successful at this level.

Never say never.

I actually can see a potential deal where including Kimbrel nets us an "Ace".

[yeezus]

Then there are those (like me) who don't have a problem "selling high" (don't like using that phrase because Kimbrel is elite, selling high indicates he can't repeat what he's done and I think we know he can and will) but still realize the replacing him means you are filling one hole by creating another. I don't agree that the drop off would be minimal so we will agree to disagree I guess.

Or selling high as in: his value is at it's highest. even if he repeats the last 2 year averages this year, he will be another year closer to FA and and cost more money, and you won't get as much. This would be the perfect time to trade him if we got a great deal (which I don't think we would get something good enough to do it). But I think this is the time where we get something crazy for him if we were ever going to, if that makes sense.

[Enscheff]

Or selling high as in: his value is at it's highest. even if he repeats the last 2 year averages this year, he will be another year closer to FA and and cost more money, and you won't get as much. This would be the perfect time to trade him if we got a great deal (which I don't think we would get something good enough to do it). But I think this is the time where we get something crazy for him if we were ever going to, if that makes sense.

I agree, the return has to be significant to trade Kimbrel now. I'm talking a Profar-type prospect. Otherwise, keep him for this year.

[Enscheff]

For example, what if the Angels took Kimbrel plus all of Uggla's contract for Kendrick, and then Wren goes out and signs Nathan to close?

Isn't that the type of deal involving Kimbrel that Wren has to seriously consider? Wouldn't the Braves be better off with Nathan and Kendrick instead of Kimbrel and Uggla?

[Knucksie]

Of course, you all saw it, but the main offenders of the "Kimbrel will bring a boatload of prospects" probably would rather not be reminded.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/atlanta_braves/index.html


And, as Olney notes, the return on Kimbrel in a trade might not be quite what fans would hope for if he is going to be paid like a starter.

[weso1]

I'm just going to say it... Make Kimbrel a starter.

[cajunrevenge]

The time to trade kimbrel is at the trade deadline. Right now anyone team can throw the same or less money to get a decent closer that they don't have to give up any prospects.

Come July if a big market team has issues with their closer then the braves leverage skyrockets. Wren just needs a good back up option. Even if its prospects in return we can flip them for another big player. Maybe even someone like David Price.

[zitothebrave]

Flipping Kimbrel while we're winning is a bad idea.

[Enscheff]

It will be odd to see Kimbrel treated like a salary dump or non-tender candidate next offseason.

[nsacpi]

The case of Jim Johnson illustrates how there has been a divergence between the arbitration system and the latest thinking on the part of front offices when it comes to the valuation of closers. At a salary of $10M, there wasn't much of a market for him. Basically his "surplus value" (expected production minus salary) was viewed as close to zero. And all the Orioles got in return for him was Jemile Weeks, who is basically a replacement level second baseman.

It is possible that we'll reach the same point with Kimbrel. Not this year. Not next year. But for his third year of arbitration. Especially if he is successful in arbitration.

[Enscheff]

The case of Jim Johnson illustrates how there has been a divergence between the arbitration system and the latest thinking on the part of front offices when it comes to the valuation of closers. At a salary of $10M, there wasn't much of a market for him. Basically his "surplus value" (expected production minus salary) was viewed as close to zero. And all the Orioles got in return for him was Jemile Weeks, who is basically a replacement level second baseman.

It is possible that we'll reach the same point with Kimbrel. Not this year. Not next year. But for his third year of arbitration. Especially if he is successful in arbitration.

This is an interesting thought experiment though...

Let's pretend that Jim Johnson is "worth" $10M, and that just so happens to be his salary as a 2 WAR closer. Further, let's pretend Kimbrel is a 3 WAR closer and "worth" $15M, and that is also his salary 2 years from now.

You are building a WS contending team with a $180M+ payroll. Don't you try to cram as much WAR into each of your roster spots as possible, thus making Kimbrel more valuable despite the equal $/WAR ratios? Isn't the fact that spuerstars concentrate so much WAR into a single roster spot the very reason superstars are paid so well?

[nsacpi]

This is an interesting thought experiment though...

Let's pretend that Jim Johnson is "worth" $10M, and that just so happens to be his salary as a 2 WAR closer. Further, let's pretend Kimbrel is a 3 WAR closer and "worth" $15M, and that is also his salary 2 years from now.

You are building a WS contending team with a $180M+ payroll. Don't you try to cram as much WAR into each of your roster spots as possible, thus making Kimbrel more valuable despite the equal $/WAR ratios? Isn't the fact that spuerstars concentrate so much WAR into a single roster spot the very reason superstars are paid so well?

Well, I think the question for any team is to consider the alternatives. Spend 15M on Kimbrel. Or spend 10M on a closer like Johnson or Nathan plus upgrade another position for 5M. Or go even cheaper on the closer and have a bigger upgrade elsewhere.

[Dalyn]

I'm just going to say it... Make Kimbrel a starter.

Not only would the bullpen lose the best closer in the game, it would have to cover all those 1.1-inning starts. Disastrous.

[nsacpi]

Not only would the bullpen lose the best closer in the game, it would have to cover all those 1.1-inning starts. Disastrous.

He could get stretched out to go 3 innings.

[Dalyn]

He could get stretched out to go 3 innings.

Hardly. You don't pitch your best pitcher more than 1.1 innings. Duh! Everyfredi knows that.

[Nerfherders]

One of Schoenfeld's SweetSpot articles delved into the valuation of closers last week. He argued that not WAR, but WPA is a better way to value relievers, especially when it comes to the 8th and 9th inning. He also remarked that the fact two of the stingiest teams (Oak and TB) are paying closers this year means that perhaps some are properly re-evaluating dependability and experience in that position. He included a list of highest WPA relievers last year and interestingly, Kimbrel was way down on that list. Probably for lack of high leverage situations.

[Knucksie]

Well, I think the question for any team is to consider the alternatives. Spend 15M on Kimbrel. Or spend 10M on a closer like Johnson or Nathan plus upgrade another position for 5M. Or go even cheaper on the closer and have a bigger upgrade elsewhere.

They don't need to drop that much cash on a closer. They used to have clowns, like McMichael & Ligtenberg doing it, after they gave up on the retreads (Reardon, Olson, Harvey). Walden could do it without too many hiccups. You guys didn't want to believe it, but you can construct an entire effective bullpen for $10MM. Go back and see the annual Sports Weekly team, if you don't believe it. Spending lavishly on closers is wasteful spending.

[Heyward]

Kimbrel and possibly trading him is tough.

Can you really justify paying him 13-15 million next year, and 17-20 million the season after that?

He's awesome and all but you can make a lot of moves with that money.

It's a tough move on Wren because there may not be a huge market for him.

[jpx7]

Probably for lack of high leverage situations.

:fredi: