GDT: Tuesday, 7/24 at Marlins

[UNCBlue012]

We have an early one today -- let's hope we can grab the win and series! We have Wednesday off and will likely get Albies back on Thursday. I'm hoping we see Culberson find his way into the lineup when Ozzie does return.

#GOBRAVOS!

[thewupk]

We have an early one today -- let's hope we can grab the win and series! We have Wednesday off and will likely get Albies back on Thursday. I'm hoping we see Culberson find his way into the lineup when Ozzie does return.

#GOBRAVOS!

Acuna in center and Charlie in left

[msstate7]

Acuna in center and Charlie in left

Who at 2b?

[thewupk]

Who at 2b?

That's for when Ozzie comes back

[thewupk]

Five Thirty Eight currently has the Braves winning 88 games and winning the division. Currently at 61% to make the playoffs.

[UNCBlue012]

Five Thirty Eight currently has the Braves winning 88 games and winning the division. Currently at 61% to make the playoffs.

Fangraphs has us at 40%. lol I love how different these projects all are! I think our biggest asset in making a run for the division crown is our record against NL East opponents. 29-15 is REALLY good.

[Super]

Fangraphs has us at 40%. lol I love how different these projects all are! I think our biggest asset in making a run for the division crown is our record against NL East opponents. 29-15 is REALLY good.

i'd love to see FG reasoning for having philly above us. because the advanced stats don't really support it IIRC. their starting pitching is strong, but offense isn't good and defense is really bad. FG is also still giving the nats a lot of credit that i'm not sure they deserve.

[msstate7]

i'd love to see FG reasoning for having philly above us. because the advanced stats don't really support it IIRC. their starting pitching is strong, but offense isn't good and defense is really bad. FG is also still giving the nats a lot of credit that i'm not sure they deserve.
38.9% of the season remaking, and the nats have a losing record

[WaitingFor2017]

Same lineup as last night except Flowers at catcher and Teheran pitching.

[nsacpi]

expecting a yuge game from Flowers

[UNCBlue012]

i'd love to see FG reasoning for having philly above us. because the advanced stats don't really support it IIRC. their starting pitching is strong, but offense isn't good and defense is really bad. FG is also still giving the nats a lot of credit that i'm not sure they deserve.

Schedule. It's not HUGE, but they have an easier schedule than us. Also, I think FG bases a lot on SP.

[thewupk]

Schedule. It's not HUGE, but they have an easier schedule than us. Also, I think FG bases a lot on SP.

Pretty sure FiveThirtyEight accounts more for current performance than Fangraphs. Fangraphs likely bases their rest of year projections on the individual rest of year projections via ZIPS. The Braves obviously projected poorly in this area to start so they are still playing catch up so to speak. FiveThirtyEight is a better model imo.

[Super]

Pretty sure FiveThirtyEight accounts more for current performance than Fangraphs. Fangraphs likely bases their rest of year projections on the individual rest of year projections via ZIPS. The Braves obviously projected poorly in this area to start so they are still playing catch up so to speak. FiveThirtyEight is a better model imo.

yup, i figured maybe FG has pre-season projections factored a lot still.

[Enscheff]

Pretty sure FiveThirtyEight accounts more for current performance than Fangraphs. Fangraphs likely bases their rest of year projections on the individual rest of year projections via ZIPS. The Braves obviously projected poorly in this area to start so they are still playing catch up so to speak. FiveThirtyEight is a better model imo.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure FG is glacially slow in giving players credit for improvements in their RoS projections. For young teams like the Braves, players can improve rather quickly (as opposed to teams full of 30 year olds).

That's why I took the over on their 84 win projection at the AS break.

[Nerfherders]

It's also very hard to project the Braves because of so many breakout years by young core players - Acuna, Albies, Camargo, Folty, Newcomb. There aren't 3 year performance bases for these guys.

[UNCBlue012]

Classic Julio.

[salmagundy]

Realmuto hits 2 run HR in 1st--w-0 Fish

[thewupk]

Classic Julio.

classic 2017 Julio

[UNCBlue012]

classic 2017 Julio it is Realmuto, so it’s hard to really be mad lol

[msstate7]

Hitting flowers 8th would be ok

[Garmel]

Bloop home run.

[UNCBlue012]

CAMARGOAT

[GeorgiaGirl]

Flowers actually kills left handers, but his staring at strikes instead of having a swing is aggravating. He's unusable against right handers this year.

[Enscheff]

Camargo is a legit option from the RH side of the plate. The Braves should be looking for a LHH to compliment to him. I don't see the point in paying the price for an everyday player like Mous when a platoon option paired with Camargo is just as good or better.

[GeorgiaGirl]

Unless it's an up and away pitch Camargo is indeed, pretty bad on his LHH side, after starting very well on that side (can't remember but something like .300/.400/.480ish) he's now down to a .760 OPS, certainly not bad but likely much worse than that lately and that's certainly okay...in the middle infield if you just look at that.

Matt Chapman lite keeps doing his thing though to a possible 2.5-3 WAR...certain role player status.

[BeanieAntics]

Camargo is a legit option from the RH side of the plate. The Braves should be looking for a LHH to compliment to him. I don't see the point in paying the price for an everyday player like Mous when a platoon option paired with Camargo is just as good or better.

I don't even think we need someone to take on a strict platoon with Camargo. He has been perfectly fine from the left side this year as well, with a .760 OPS. And that is only on a .302 BABIP so I'd like to see if this production from both sides is real. The one thing that likely will regress from the left side is that 13.9% walk rate. So maybe that means that he will see a dip in OPS from the left side later on. I think I'd still like to see him get 100 more plate appearances to judge.

But I do want to get someone who can occasionally fill in against righties for both Camargo and Dansby. Eduardo Escobar or Solarte fits that bill perfectly in my opinion. I think Escobar is more unlikely since AA has this dumb idea that he shouldn't be going after rentals.

[BeanieAntics]

Unless it's an up and away pitch Camargo is indeed, pretty bad on his LHH side, after starting very well on that side (can't remember but something like .300/.400/.480ish) he's now down to a .760 OPS, certainly not bad but likely much worse than that lately and that's certainly okay...in the middle infield if you just look at that.

Matt Chapman lite keeps doing his thing though to a possible 2.5-3 WAR...certain role player status.

The only thing that I think Camargo is doing from the LHH side that is unsustainable right now is the 13.9% BB rate. That is going to come down some and will impact his OPS. But I'm starting to believe that something along the lines of .250/.330/.370 would be sustainable for him from that side. With his glove work and his work against LHP, I think that is certainly a starter caliber player.

[UNCBlue012]

Bad luck double play. Man.

[GeorgiaGirl]

With that lineout I think we can still pretty confidently say the Braves still can't have nice things completely.

[Enscheff]

The only thing that I think Camargo is doing from the LHH side that is unsustainable right now is the 13.9% BB rate. That is going to come down some and will impact his OPS. But I'm starting to believe that something along the lines of .250/.330/.370 would be sustainable for him from that side. With his glove work and his work against LHP, I think that is certainly a starter caliber player.

You think a .700 OPS vs RHPs at 3B is starter caliber for a playoff team when 70%+ of all MLB PAs are against RHP?

[Super]

i'm qwhite certain charlie culberson is a gritty baseball player

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

That high and inside strike to Acuña was brutal

[striker42]

Bad luck double play. Man.

Yup. A lot of balls found grass yesterday for us. Evening out today.

[Super]

That high and inside strike to Acuña was brutal

not saying it's been a benefit to one team or the other but you can already tell this ump's zone is all over the place.

[UNCBlue012]

Yup. A lot of balls found grass yesterday for us. Evening out today.

Hopefully they find grass later and we start dominating ;)

Or simply win.

[Enscheff]

Wow, weird seeing Ender make such a bad play

[UNCBlue012]

Wow, that was REALLY bad. It's early, but we look terrible.

[UNCBlue012]

4-1...

[Super]

Wow, that was REALLY bad. It's early, but we look terrible.

season over

[UNCBlue012]

season over

We so done

[BeanieAntics]

You think a .700 OPS vs RHers at 3B is starter caliber for a playoff team?

I mean, its not like he would be a star, but if he could put up an .850ish OPS vs. lefties that would put him in a ballpark of what? A .750 to .770 OPS? With his plus defense at 3rd base that is probably a 3 win player over the course of the season. It would be fringe, but playoff teams have definitely had starters that were much worse.

I don't know, maybe you're right. Maybe .700 would be too low for him to be playoff starter caliber, but would a .720? .730? I'm genuinely curious how good he would have to be from the left side before he hit that threshold.

[UNCBlue012]

Chen is so lucky. Dude looks like straight trash today.

[GeorgiaGirl]

I honestly wonder if Ender's head is truly in the game this year.

[Super]

I honestly wonder if Ender's head is truly in the game this year.

i'm thinking he just doesn't care right now. hopefully he starts trying.

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

i'm thinking he just doesn't care right now. hopefully he starts trying.

I know we make fun of the lack of trying stuff, but Ender clearly wasn’t paying enough attention there

[UNCBlue012]

I know we make fun of the lack of trying stuff, but Ender clearly wasn’t paying enough attention there

Yeah, it at least looked like this was the case.

[Enscheff]

I mean, its not like he would be a star, but if he could put up an .850ish OPS vs. lefties that would put him in a ballpark of what? A .750 to .770 OPS? With his plus defense at 3rd base that is probably a 3 win player over the course of the season. It would be fringe, but playoff teams have definitely had starters that were much worse.

I don't know, maybe you're right. Maybe .700 would be too low for him to be playoff starter caliber, but would a .720? .730? I'm genuinely curious how good he would have to be from the left side before he hit that threshold.

The cost of bringing in a platoon mate is so low that it doesn't really matter. Finding a LHH with big platoon splits is so easy, why would any team settle for such a low OPS at 3B vs RHP?

[UNCBlue012]

Ender has hit well lately. lol

[UNCBlue012]

Second-half Acuna is fun.

[BeanieAntics]

The cost of bringing in a platoon mate is so low that it doesn't really matter. Finding a LHH with big platoon splits is so easy, why would any team settle for such a low OPS at 3B vs RHP?

Yeah maybe you're right. I guess I'm still in the mindset of wanting to give Camargo enough at bats to see what is for real and what isn't. Wanting to see his development. I'm totally in favor of bringing a guy like you mentioned in and have been advocating it. I guess I just wanted him deployed a little bit differently. But yeah if we are going to be in contention, roll out the best players given the situation.

[thewupk]

Second-half Acuna is fun.

ROY run

[UNCBlue012]

ROY run

He's all of a sudden super patient and consistently puts in great at-bats.

[GeorgiaGirl]

Charlie Culberson's unexpected run really has been something else.

[UNCBlue012]

CHARLIE CLUTCH!

[Enscheff]

Culbeastson!!

Bloop double, but I'll take it!!

[thewupk]

Charlie Cluberson!

[bravesfanMatt]

Need to get one back here and start to get into that sweet fish pen.

[thewupk]

Charlie Culberson's unexpected run really has been something else.

Ozzie gonna get Wally Pipped

[BeanieAntics]

Lol Culberson is ridiculous. Even if we get someone else through trade and Culberson gets pushed down a little, I love having him on this team.

[UNCBlue012]

Julio allowed Chen to double. Just stupid, man.

[thewupk]

Julio allowed Chen to double. Just stupid, man.

he aint good bro

[Southcack77]

The only thing that I think Camargo is doing from the LHH side that is unsustainable right now is the 13.9% BB rate. That is going to come down some and will impact his OPS. But I'm starting to believe that something along the lines of .250/.330/.370 would be sustainable for him from that side. With his glove work and his work against LHP, I think that is certainly a starter caliber player.


Beyond the first month, he's been only decent. That walk rate was near 20% at one point and has been right around 8% in June and July, which is about what it was last season.

July would be his worst month so far but for a .343 BABIP.

I think he's playable as a starter, but probably should be upgraded in the offseason if possible. Good target to upgrade anyway.

[UNCBlue012]

Good stuff, Julio. Thanks for that! 5-3... can't win when the pitcher gives up lead-off doubles to the opposing pitcher.

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

I think he was safe

[UNCBlue012]

Yup. He was safe.

[Enscheff]

They aren't going to overturn that call

[Garmel]

Terrible play, Dansby.

[GeorgiaGirl]

So Swanson's arm is so bad he can't even throw the starting pitcher out at the plate.

Wasn't worth the challenge, he was safe easily.

[jpack1]

A bad throw. A decent throw gets him

[UNCBlue012]

Bour single, 6-3. The defense hasn't helped him, but Julio needs to get it together. Just dumb pitching.

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

Julio is pretty bad guys

[jpack1]

A stater is looking more like a necessity

[Garmel]

Game over.

[UNCBlue012]

HAHAHAHA 9-3. OMG. Cut Julio. The worst.

We are getting beat 9-3 by the Marlins. LOL

[Enscheff]

With Soroka out for the year now, and Newk regressing, Gohara being a lost soul, and Teheran struggling, I think the odds of adding a SP has increased the last few days.

It may mean the Braves just stick with Camargo at 3b.

[UNCBlue012]

You win 12-1 one night and lose (likely) this badly the next day. I don't get it. Julio just needs to be taken out of the rotation. No excuses. He's trash.

[UNCBlue012]

With Soroka out for the year now, and Newk regressing, Gohara being a lost soul, and Teheran struggling, I think the odds of adding a SP has increased the last few days.

It may mean the Braves just stick with Camargo at 3b.

I'm stoked for Fried's return.

[BeanieAntics]

Julio will have two good to great starts, then an awful one. It seems like it has been like that all season. This is his awful one.

[UNCBlue012]

For once, I'm fine with Freeman being used.

[GeorgiaGirl]

My suspicion is the offense ain't done and it won't look like a blowout type game but Teheran is not the type of guy you try to sneak through a 3rd time.

[jpack1]

There was zero need to take Julio out there. Make him pitch 2 more and save the pen. Game is basically out of reach now. Barring a miracle

[UNCBlue012]

There was zero need to take Julio out there. Make him pitch 2 more and save the pen. Game is basically out of reach now. Barring a miracle

No game is unwinnable against the Marlins and they're trash... well everything but Realmuto, really.

[Enscheff]

My suspicion is the offense ain't done and it won't look like a blowout type game but Teheran is not the type of guy you try to sneak through a 3rd time.

Depends. Has the offense left the bases loaded yet? I've been told that once that happens the offense goes dormant.

[GeorgiaGirl]

Gonna score 2 or 3 more and make it look terrible that an attempt to sneak Teheran through the 3rd time was made and come close to making Ender's error look awful.

But no, no May like comeback is coming.

[UNCBlue012]

Bowman: Teheran allowed 7 ER or more in less than 5 IP in just two of 130 starts from 2011-16. He's since done so in six of 52 starts dating back to the start of 2017.

[Enscheff]

HAHAHAHA 9-3. OMG. Cut Julio. The worst.

We are getting beat 9-3 by the Marlins. LOL

LOL!!

You're overreactions to losing a single game as if bad teams don't regularly beat good teams is always hilarious.

Thanks!

[UNCBlue012]

LOL!!

You're overreactions to losing a single game as if bad teams don't regularly beat good teams is always hilarious.

Thanks!

Exactly! The overreactions make posting on a message board way more fun, especially since I'm really chill in real life. lol

[Enscheff]

So...who besides Gov still thinks it was smart to keep Teheran during the rebuild?

[GeorgiaGirl]

Not trading Teheran in 2016 was a huge mistake, even if you weren't getting Benintendi. In general it's pretty hilarious that the Braves based the rebuild around pitching and it's been around offense.

[mfree80]

While we are rehashing ancient history... maybe we can talk about how the Braves should have drafted Lewis...

[striker42]

I still wonder if Teheran is hurt.

[Enscheff]

While we are rehashing ancient history... maybe we can talk about how the Braves should have drafted Lewis...

Sure. Do we still assume he has a freak knee injury on a home plate collision with the Braves? Do we get excited over his .915 OPS in his pro debut before the injury with decreased K rates?

If you're going to mock someone, it has to actually make sense. Otherwise you just make yourself look like a fool. Ask Garmel and clvderp about their sigs.

[UNCBlue012]

1021816881169092608

[bravesfanMatt]

Been in a meeting but I felt Dansby could have tried for two on the play at home.

[GeorgiaGirl]

I still wonder if Teheran is hurt.

Not hurt, while it's not why he got bombed in the fifth today his problem is his changeup is completely toast right now. When his rising fastball is higher than high and his slider isn't a meatball, he can pitch well against right handers still. That wasn't the case though today. Everyone even when he was getting outs was all over him because he wasn't hitting spots at all.

If he doesn't find something else for left handers, he's toast.

[striker42]

Not sure what's more embarrassing, letting the Fish score 9 or only scoring 3.

And Flowers has just collapsed as a hitter.

[GeorgiaGirl]

Geez, even my funny thing isn't going to happen, seems as if this team decided to mail it in after Teheran imploded.

[TheBravos]

Guys. I think we have too many holes this year. Too many question marks. If im AA, I make a few small moves and let things ride.

There just aren’t that many true difference makers out there for what we would give up. We’re a good team, and can/will be great next year.

The crazy thing about Julio...he may go out the next game a throw a two hitter. It makes NO sense. Maybe trade out he and McCarthy each start and give both double rest (which both seems to help their outings...although plenty of rest this start).

We have pretty consistently been a .500 team for a while now.

[bravesfanMatt]

Guys. I think we have too many holes this year. Too many question marks. If im AA, I make a few small moves and let things ride.

There just aren’t that many true difference makers out there for what we would give up. We’re a good team, and can/will be great next year.

The crazy thing about Julio...he may go out the next game a throw a two hitter. It makes NO sense. Maybe trade out he and McCarthy each start and give both double rest (which both seems to help their outings...although plenty of rest this start).

We have pretty consistently been a .500 team for a while now.

Basically running a 24 man team if you go that route. Need to find a consistent starter and move JT to the pen.

[UNCBlue012]

Well, this was a bad loss. Lol hopefully the Phillies and Nats lose as well

[TheBravos]

Basically running a 24 man team if you go that route. Need to find a consistent starter and move JT to the pen.

The pen?? He is horrible in his first inning. That’s when he gives up most of his runs lol.

[striker42]

Sloppy, sloppy game. Lots of bad ABs, 3 errors, just a very poor all around showing.

[bravesfanMatt]

The pen?? He is horrible in his first inning. That’s when he gives up most of his runs lol.

Different mind set. Can’t look at starters first inning and say that is how he would be.

[Garmel]

If you're going to mock someone, it has to actually make sense. Otherwise you just make yourself look like a fool. Ask Garmel and clvderp about their sigs.

LOLOLOLOL!!!!! Enscheff has 80 Grade delusion.

[Enscheff]

LOLOLOLOL!!!!! Enscheff has 80 Grade delusion.

Where’s your sig hero?

[Garmel]

Where’s your sig hero?

They are there. They'll probably be accompanied by more soon.

[Enscheff]

They are there. They'll probably be accompanied by more soon.

I hope so.

Newk is trending exactly to 2 WAR, the definition of a #4, and Camargo will be moved to a utility role permanently within the next calendar year.

Your sig is doing an excellent job of documenting how right I am, and you’re too stupid to realize it. Thanks hero!!

[Garmel]

I hope so.

Newk is trending exactly to 2 WAR, the definition of a #4, and Camargo will be moved to a utility role permanently within the next calendar year.

Your sig is doing an excellent job of documenting how right I am, and you’re too stupid to realize it. Thanks hero!!

Too early to say on Newk. I love how you beat your chest every time he has a bad game as if one game matters. Camargo is not a 45 grade player no matter how much you want him to be. To say something like that makes you stupid. Checkmate.

[Enscheff]

Too early to say on Newk. Camargo is not a 45 grade player no matter how much you want him to be. To say something like that makes you stupid. Checkmate.

Lol checkmate? Do you even know what a 45 grade player is?

Just keep that sig up hero haha. I cant for the article to come out that says, “PlayerX allows Camargo to move into a utility role that he’s more suited for”, so I can mock you and your sig for months.

[Garmel]

Lol checkmate? Do you even know what a 45 grade player is?

Just keep that sig up hero haha.

Yes I do. Camargo isn't one of them.

[Enscheff]

Yes I do. Camargo isn't one of them.

I can’t wait to quote this after the article of Camargo moving to a utility role is written lol.

[Garmel]

I can’t wait to quote this after the article of Camargo moving to a utility role is written lol.

Even if he is moved to bench at Atlanta he will eventually move on to be an average to slightly above average player barring injury. He isn't a 45.

[Enscheff]

Even if he is moved to bench at Atlanta he will eventually move on to be an average to slightly above average player barring injury. He isn't a 45.

Sorry hero, a bench player in the utility role is the definition of a role 45 guy.

Just keep that sig up clown. Maybe learn about grading players too.

[GeorgiaGirl]

I'm pretty sure a "45" is an average to slightly above average player.

[Garmel]

Sorry hero, a bench player in the utility role is the definition of a role 45 guy.

Just keep that sig up clown.

Roles don't make someone's grade, dummy.

[Garmel]

I'm pretty sure a "45" is an average to slightly above average player.

A 50 is average.

[Enscheff]

Roles don't make someone's grade, dummy.

Lol what? That’s exactly what it means. You are so dumb you don’t even know what you dont know lol.

Just keep that sig up hero.

[Garmel]

Lol what? That’s exactly what it means. You are so dumb you don’t even know what you dont know lol.

Just keep that sig up hero.

It's performance, dude not the role. Holy crap.

[Enscheff]

It's performance dude, not the role. Holy crap.

Just keep that sig up hero.

Thanks!

[Bluedevilruss]

Isn’t the hero ham/turkey/roast beef at firehouse? I usually get it on wheat.

[Braves1976]

dodgers blew 4-1 lead in 7th, left starter in too long when he got in trouble

[UNCBlue012]

The Dodgers blow. 4-1 lead blown.

[Braves1976]

ump calls ball four to taylor strike three, otherwise dodgers leadoff man on in 9th

[Braves1976]

phillies about to walk off win

well not yet, dodgers got out of it using three relievers and got a line out to short.