Starting Pitching in the Majors and Minors

[nsacpi]

The mood around here is very positive, almost giddy, about the starting pitching we have accumulated. I think when evaluating the developments this year, the picture is more mixed than is generally realized. Still let me start with the positives:

1) Wilson. Made his major league debut at 20. He started the season in High A. I would give him some additional seasoning in AAA next year, but for me he is now a favorite for a long-term spot in the major league rotation.

2) Touki. Had some bad luck last year in terms of results not matching the peripherals. I'm not surprised to see the results converge to the peripherals this year. I think now he is a bit overrated around here. But definitely a positive story for 2018.

3) Folty. I'm including guys at the major league level in this assessment and he is making a case for turning into that homegrown TOR guy.

4) Gausman. I like what I've seen so far. Obviously the results have exceeded what the peripherals suggest. Still, we have to put the acquisition of this guy into the plus column.

5) Suarez. Obviously a nice surprise. Does not matter in terms of implications beyond this year.

6) Muller. Has really stepped it up and is now a legitimate prospect.

Now the minuses. Not as many as positive developments, but they involve two of our brightest prospects.

1) Soroka. I've had a nagging concern as he has zipped through the system that he was being pushed too hard too fast. The promotions have been aggressive and the workload heavy for a teen-age pitcher. Hope that's not why the shoulder problems cropped up. But this is a big minus for me given that I rated him very highly.

2) Gohara. I rated him and Soroka above all others in our system. So another big minus to me whatever the reason. Hopefully he bounces back.

3) Allard. Even though he did ok in AAA, I think we have all had to lower our expectations based on what we have seen in the majors.

4) Wentz. An almost lost year due to injuries. And I wasn't that impressed even before this year.

Now for the guys who essentially held serve:

1) Anderson. Continues to advance steadily. He doesn't flash the potential that guys like Soroka and Gohara did. But that still leaves room for plenty of value.

2) Wright. Similar to Anderson but one level closer to the majors.

3) Fried. Quite a bit of potential. But can't seem to have a long stretch of success. Hopefully, a solution is found to the problem with blisters.

4) Newcomb. I think we know what he is. Some of us are too easily seduced by the occasional outstanding performance.

5) Teheran. Innings eater is what he is now.

For me the negative developments with respect to Soroka and Gohara carry a lot of weight because those two are the guys who I think had the most upside. Wilson, Touki and Folty have been very nice positive developments. I would say Folty is the biggest positive development, partly because it is happening at the major league level. I think he hasn't reached his peak yet.

My Top 5 overall: Folty, Soroka, Gohara, Gausman, Wilson. Ranked by expected peak for a single major league season.

In terms of those expected peak seasons in terms of fWAR, I think Folty has a 5 WAR season in him (he's at 3.2 so far this year). I'd peg Soroka and Gohara at 4.5. Gausman at 4 and Wilson at 3.5. ymmv

[GeorgiaGirl]

Thanks for this thread, I’m about to just turn it into 2019 rotation speculation…

I’m sure most of y’all have heard it, but I’ll say it here. You need at least 8-10 starters that can go planned to me as it’s rare that you’re going to have everyone stay healthy. Based off 2014, planning on having the rotation be Foltynewicz, Gausman, possibly Newcomb if no trade, and kids running around completely, isn’t a smart idea to me at all either. I’d really rather not they be the veterans of the rotation. Which is why I have backpedaled some on Teheran. I might keep him. As I see it, we know enough to trade 1 starter. Not 2, even though it’s going to disappoint some to not see 3 kids running around in the rotation all season long.
(This is not including Sanchez, I’m talking about the Folty/Gausman/Newcomb/Teheran group)
I think you need at least 3 established starters and at least 5 starters that can make starts through a season. The way I see it, and this is based off secondhand information more than favoritism, this is what I think we might see:

First month or two of the season:

1. Foltynewicz
2. Gausman
3. Teheran or Newcomb (I see one just not being with the team after this season)
4. Toussaint
5. Whoever is still here of Fried or Gohara temporarily, and then they move to the pen later.

Later:

1. Foltynewicz
2. Gausman
3. Teheran or Newcomb
4. Toussaint
5. Wright (I like him, but this is NOT, “NOT” about favoritism. It’s based off secondhand information that unless he has a setback, he’s likely coming to stay late spring/early summer, now IF he does have that setback, we could see Soroka or Wilson over him)

With Mike Soroka, until we figure out what the team’s plans with him are if all is well for him, I don’t think we should be counting on him for more than 15-20 major league starts next season. They’ll likely put him in AAA (even though he’s ready for the majors) to limit his innings at the get go.

With Bryse Wilson, if you think he can hone his off speed more, he should not be doing that in MLB and should get another half season at AAA to do it. I understand people here really, really like him, but there would be value in doing that. It’d make his ceiling a bit higher.

[Super]

I don't see how Anderson doesn't have at least Soroka's potential, and also how he hasn't boosted his status. He moved up a level, kept the Ks the same (pretty high) and lowered his BBs a full walk per 9. He's now in AA at the age of 20 putting up good numbers.

I also don't really see how Touki is overrated..his stuff is phenomenal and he's shown very encouraging signs in the control department. Sky is the limit with him.

i'll be patient with Gohara. I think that's the only option at this point.

[Skeeter31]

Oh it’s been a few weeks since a list of the pitching/pitching prospects has popped up on here. Good job making the quota for the month!

[GeorgiaGirl]

I'd just make this the main thread to talk 2019 starting pitching as well, since some bring that up so much.

[Horsehide Harry]

I think it's nice having options for next year and beyond. However, I think some of the pitching, likely from both ML level and ml level, will be used to acquire needed talent in the offseason and I think there's a chance that AA plays in the FA SP pool if the right option is there.

I hope they don't fall into the trap of holding firm under the expectation that some won't pan out. While that is likely true, the original strategy was always to build through internal pitching and trade from the surplus.

I could see them trying to add a Corbin (probably won't break the bank because of TJ history), Happ, Harvey, Morton (assuming he still plays), Pomeranz (reclaim), Richards (long term reclaim), Smyly (reclaim), Eovaldi

I would try to trade Newcomb I think if I could find a team who valued him high enough and Teheran for sure.

Maybe Newk and Allard to the Cards for Dexter Fowler (salary dump for the Cards and reclaim RF for the Braves), Carson Kelly (once top catching prospect who's star has dimmed a bit and is behind Yadier) and Nolan Gorman (Cards 1st rounder in 2018 that should have gone to the Braves).

Braves sign a value vet for the #4 spot in the rotation (let's say Happ) for a couple of years: Folty, Gausman, Teheran, Happ and numbers 5,6,7,8 in the rotation are fought for by Fried, Soroka, Wright, Wilson, Toukie, etc. Teheran is gone after 2019 and Gausman, Folty and Happ (in this case) would be gone soon after (or re-signed if desired).

[Super]

Oh it’s been a few weeks since a list of the pitching/pitching prospects has popped up on here. Good job making the quota for the month!

u mad

[CJ9]

Saw this tweet on Ian Anderson yesterday. He's my top pitching prospect in the system: https://twitter.com/ckurcon/status/1035266694212722688

[Jaw]

Saw this tweet on Ian Anderson yesterday. He's my top pitching prospect in the system: 1035266694212722688

embedded it

[CJ9]

embedded it

Thanks, i always forget to do that.

[Enscheff]

I'm guessing the 2019 opening day rotation will be Folty, Gaus, Newk, Teheran, and whoever wins the 5th job between Touki, Soroka, Fried, Gohara, Wright, Wilson and Allard. The good news is there's no reason to sign that $10M veteran presence for the 2019 rotation.

No matter who wins the 5th spot (I'm guessing Touki because they are going to handle Soroka with kiddie gloves in 2019), he won't join the team until April 7th when they will need a 5th SP.

The other guys will be in AAA or the BP waiting to be one of the 12-15 SPs used by the Braves throughout the season. Anderson will push into that group sometime in 2019.

The guys likely to stick in the rotation long term are Touki, Soroka, Wright and Anderson, though we know 1-2 will be lost to injury (Soroka may be lost already). The survivors among that 4 will likely push their way into the rotation as Teheran and Newk work their way out over the next 1-2 seasons.

[bravesfanMatt]

embedded it

Who are those other 4 dots around him.

[Enscheff]

Saw this tweet on Ian Anderson yesterday. He's my top pitching prospect in the system: https://twitter.com/ckurcon/status/1035266694212722688

Where do these guys find this data? Anyone know?

EDIT: never mind, it seems he went year by year through FG's MiLB stats page.

[Acuña’s Bat Flip]

We had one young guy get his baptism under fire today.

[Deester11]

We had one young guy get his baptism under fire today.
I thought he acquitted himself well. I’d have liked to see him left in to learn to deal with adversity but hard to do in a pennant race. That said I’m excited about the rotation in the future.

[bravesfanMatt]

Yeah. I didn’t get to watch his start but know the 2 walks didn’t cost him runs so basically 3 runs on 4 hits without giving up a homer is more bad luck than bad pitching.

[Southcack77]

I'm not sure what overrating Touki consists of, but I would say whatever it is might be better or equally applied to Wilson. Wilson also has the same somewhat silly progression through the minors as Soroka did, so maybe he was pushed too quickly and is in danger of injury as well.

I've never been quite as high on Soroka or Gohara as the rest of folks seemed to be. Soroka because he has some kind of pitching genius mystique wrapped around him that basically has originated from fan boys. Gohara because his body is atrocious at a youngish age and that's a relatively rare thing to work out well. but they both probably deserve to have another crack at the rotation if they are healthy. Soroka clearly does, I suppose, since he was pretty decent.

Anderson did considerably more than hold serve in my book, but that's fine if you want to put it that way. Anderson to me is perhaps the best bet of the guys in the system to be dominant.

Wright perhaps took a step forward, but I have no idea why they suddenly decided to push him forward or why he's active on MLB roster now. They don't seem inclined to use him. I've never had a personal feeling he was destined to be great, but the stuff is there to be very good.

I personally believe Newcomb has made some progress this season, but seems to be regressing as it goes on. I could very easily see him make more progress next year. It sometimes takes awhile (you might look at Folty's 2017 for an example), so I'm looking with interest to see what he does next year. I see little reason he would cycle out of the rotation any time soon unless he is part of a trade package. He's very cheap for a long while longer and it's completely evident that he has no hit stuff and is one of the few left handed options in the Braves system.

I still think Weigel is a starter and should be given the opportunity again.

[zbhargrove]

What? Anderson has easily taken a step forward and has shown huge potential this year. Not sure if you realize what an amazing year he's had..

[50PoundHead]

I'm guessing the 2019 opening day rotation will be Folty, Gaus, Newk, Teheran, and whoever wins the 5th job between Touki, Soroka, Fried, Gohara, Wright, Wilson and Allard. The good news is there's no reason to sign that $10M veteran presence for the 2019 rotation.

No matter who wins the 5th spot (I'm guessing Touki because they are going to handle Soroka with kiddie gloves in 2019), he won't join the team until April 7th when they will need a 5th SP.

The other guys will be in AAA or the BP waiting to be one of the 12-15 SPs used by the Braves throughout the season. Anderson will push into that group sometime in 2019.

The guys likely to stick in the rotation long term are Touki, Soroka, Wright and Anderson, though we know 1-2 will be lost to injury (Soroka may be lost already). The survivors among that 4 will likely push their way into the rotation as Teheran and Newk work their way out over the next 1-2 seasons.

There is a lot of "trade Teheran" going around on the thread (not in Enscheff's post) and if they could get value for him, I'm on that train. But why trade Teheran and sign another veteran? I doubt we could get one at the same price that would be an upgrade. If one of the younger guys is deemed ready, the addition of Gausman likely allows a trade of Teheran (and again, I'm down with that), but I don't get the veteran-for-veteran replacement plan.

[Horsehide Harry]

There is a lot of "trade Teheran" going around on the thread (not in Enscheff's post) and if they could get value for him, I'm on that train. But why trade Teheran and sign another veteran? I doubt we could get one at the same price that would be an upgrade. If one of the younger guys is deemed ready, the addition of Gausman likely allows a trade of Teheran (and again, I'm down with that), but I don't get the veteran-for-veteran replacement plan.

Yeah, I worry that the Teheran trade opportunity has left with Elvis. I said back at the beginning of the rebuild that he needed to be traded then. Most everyone was against that and responded that his contract was so good that he could be traded at any time, essentially assuming a continued market. It didn't happen that way.

Now, it's harder to trade anyone because it looks like we are firmly in the window of contention. However, I think you still have to keep one eye on 3-4 years out or risk becoming the Royals. Take Folty for example. He looks like he may be developing into an ace. However, he's got 3 years control after this year and beginning to get expensive. He has essentially spent 2+ developmental years in the ML burning through control time at a time when the Braves just needed warm bodies to field a team. He probably makes $8M next year, $14M after that and $20M after that IF he stays on the current path and enters FA as a 30 YO looking for 5 years $125M minimum. Certainly no requirement to trade him now. But it shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. Same thing goes for Gausman. But Gausman unfortunately has less value in return.

And obviously Newk is someone who you have to be willing to consider moving given the right return.

I guess what I'm saying is that some of the pitchers will be traded. I think it's a mistake to assume that the ones traded should or will be the prospects.

[Southcack77]

Yeah, I worry that the Teheran trade opportunity has left with Elvis. I said back at the beginning of the rebuild that he needed to be traded then. Most everyone was against that and responded that his contract was so good that he could be traded at any time, essentially assuming a continued market. It didn't happen that way.

Now, it's harder to trade anyone because it looks like we are firmly in the window of contention. However, I think you still have to keep one eye on 3-4 years out or risk becoming the Royals. Take Folty for example. He looks like he may be developing into an ace. However, he's got 3 years control after this year and beginning to get expensive. He has essentially spent 2+ developmental years in the ML burning through control time at a time when the Braves just needed warm bodies to field a team. He probably makes $8M next year, $14M after that and $20M after that IF he stays on the current path and enters FA as a 30 YO looking for 5 years $125M minimum. Certainly no requirement to trade him now. But it shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. Same thing goes for Gausman. But Gausman unfortunately has less value in return.

And obviously Newk is someone who you have to be willing to consider moving given the right return.

I guess what I'm saying is that some of the pitchers will be traded. I think it's a mistake to assume that the ones traded should or will be the prospects.


I'm not really sure what else the Braves could do regarding starting pitching to make you think they aren't keeping an eye 3-4 years down the road. If the sheer number of legitimate prospects still working their way through the system isn't enough, how about them having spend their first rounder on yet another pitcher this year and no doubt they will spend a first rounder on it next year as well.

Their insufficient attention to this area is not a legitimate gripe.

[Southcack77]

There is a lot of "trade Teheran" going around on the thread (not in Enscheff's post) and if they could get value for him, I'm on that train. But why trade Teheran and sign another veteran? I doubt we could get one at the same price that would be an upgrade. If one of the younger guys is deemed ready, the addition of Gausman likely allows a trade of Teheran (and again, I'm down with that), but I don't get the veteran-for-veteran replacement plan.



A Teheran trade isn't especially realistic.

If they signed another veteran it would likely be at a much cheaper price point. The benefit would be saving 6-10 million dollars for what might figure to be similar production.

But there would be no need to sign that guy really, though they might well audition some veterans as NRIs.

[Carp]

Yeah, I worry that the Teheran trade opportunity has left with Elvis. I said back at the beginning of the rebuild that he needed to be traded then. Most everyone was against that and responded that his contract was so good that he could be traded at any time, essentially assuming a continued market. It didn't happen that way.

Now, it's harder to trade anyone because it looks like we are firmly in the window of contention. However, I think you still have to keep one eye on 3-4 years out or risk becoming the Royals. Take Folty for example. He looks like he may be developing into an ace. However, he's got 3 years control after this year and beginning to get expensive. He has essentially spent 2+ developmental years in the ML burning through control time at a time when the Braves just needed warm bodies to field a team. He probably makes $8M next year, $14M after that and $20M after that IF he stays on the current path and enters FA as a 30 YO looking for 5 years $125M minimum. Certainly no requirement to trade him now. But it shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. Same thing goes for Gausman. But Gausman unfortunately has less value in return.

And obviously Newk is someone who you have to be willing to consider moving given the right return.

I guess what I'm saying is that some of the pitchers will be traded. I think it's a mistake to assume that the ones traded should or will be the prospects.

Contending teams don't (or at least shouldn't) trade their best players during their competitive window. While there is certainly risk that you become the Royals, there is also risk that you become the Rays or Pirates and just get stuck in limbo trying to be competitive while selling off your best assets as they become expensive. I didn't mind the Royals not selling off their assets, and instead trying to go for it all again while they had everyone together. The problem was that they spent wastefully in FA re-signing Gordon and signing Ian Kennedy to a big deal where that money could have been better spent on 2-3 lower budget signings that made more sense. I thought the Davis for Soler deal was a good trade and that's the sort of deals they should have been looking at.
Buying low on big talent players.

I think we'd be better off riding Folty out to FA then let him walk. Sure there is risk he gets hurt or regresses to a back end starter, but our team is built to win now and finding a pitcher to replace Folty's production will be very hard.

[Horsehide Harry]

I'm not really sure what else the Braves could do regarding starting pitching to make you think they aren't keeping an eye 3-4 years down the road. If the sheer number of legitimate prospects still working their way through the system isn't enough, how about them having spend their first rounder on yet another pitcher this year and no doubt they will spend a first rounder on it next year as well.

Their insufficient attention to this area is not a legitimate gripe.

You missed my intent. I'm saying the easy thing to do would be to keep the "knowns" (Folty, Gausman, Newk etc. just like was done with Teheran) at the expense of trading away some of the "unknowns." If you go that route, and it works short term (no given-see Teheran), then in 3-4 years you're going to have a rotation of very expensive FA and/or near FA with a diminished pool of youngsters to draw from.

And, while it may be best to have a mix of veteran and youngster, there is no law that says the veteran has to be in-house.

[Super]

If they signed another veteran it would likely be at a much cheaper price point. The benefit would be saving 6-10 million dollars for what might figure to be similar production.


what vet pitcher will sign for $1M-5M? I mean, I suppose you could sign a guy similar to Buchholz or Cahill and hope they work out, but every one of them there's probably 3-4 Doug Fisters or Yovani Gallardos. we've gotten pretty lucky with sanchez, but it's not a chance that sounds great to take.

[Horsehide Harry]

Contending teams don't (or at least shouldn't) trade their best players during their competitive window. While there is certainly risk that you become the Royals, there is also risk that you become the Rays or Pirates and just get stuck in limbo trying to be competitive while selling off your best assets as they become expensive. I didn't mind the Royals not selling off their assets, and instead trying to go for it all again while they had everyone together. The problem was that they spent wastefully in FA re-signing Gordon and signing Ian Kennedy to a big deal where that money could have been better spent on 2-3 lower budget signings that made more sense. I thought the Davis for Soler deal was a good trade and that's the sort of deals they should have been looking at.
Buying low on big talent players.

I think we'd be better off riding Folty out to FA then let him walk. Sure there is risk he gets hurt or regresses to a back end starter, but our team is built to win now and finding a pitcher to replace Folty's production will be very hard.

It would only be hard if he continues to improve into a real ACE, which is certainly possible. But, with success comes increased monetary cost. Can this team afford a $20M Folty headed into FA? A $15M Gausman? A $15M Newk? The key for teams like the Braves IMO is value per dollar.

A 5WAR pitcher at $20M is good value. A 3WAR pitcher at $2M is better value, especially if you took the 5WAR guy and turned him into 5 or more WAR value in young players that help the team, now or in the future. MLB is fast becoming a young man's game (more so than it ever was) and it's value per dollar thinking that is driving that.

[Enscheff]

Yeah, I worry that the Teheran trade opportunity has left with Elvis. I said back at the beginning of the rebuild that he needed to be traded then. Most everyone was against that and responded that his contract was so good that he could be traded at any time, essentially assuming a continued market. It didn't happen that way.

Now, it's harder to trade anyone because it looks like we are firmly in the window of contention. However, I think you still have to keep one eye on 3-4 years out or risk becoming the Royals. Take Folty for example. He looks like he may be developing into an ace. However, he's got 3 years control after this year and beginning to get expensive. He has essentially spent 2+ developmental years in the ML burning through control time at a time when the Braves just needed warm bodies to field a team. He probably makes $8M next year, $14M after that and $20M after that IF he stays on the current path and enters FA as a 30 YO looking for 5 years $125M minimum. Certainly no requirement to trade him now. But it shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. Same thing goes for Gausman. But Gausman unfortunately has less value in return.

And obviously Newk is someone who you have to be willing to consider moving given the right return.

I guess what I'm saying is that some of the pitchers will be traded. I think it's a mistake to assume that the ones traded should or will be the prospects.

This is ridiculous. You are projecting insane salaries for Folty.

David Price also went through arbitration 4 times and earned, $4.4M, $10.1M, $14M, and $19.8M after winning a CYA and finishing 2nd 2 other times. He set arb records that you think Folty is going to match? And he's going to match them off the back of a first year arb salary of $2.2M?

Sorry, those salaries for Folty are not even in the realm of reasonable. Folty is not getting Price money.

The best way to maximize Folty's value to the organization is to trade him when he has 1-2 years of service time remaining, preferably at the deadline when he has 1.5 years remaining. Problem is, no team is going to trade a SP during the season when they are in contention. While trading someone like Folty in the off season after 2019 or 2020 may be the best way to maximize overall value, contending teams who aren't running a $60M payroll simply don't do that.

[Horsehide Harry]

This is ridiculous. You are projected insane salaries for Folty that are based on pure ignorance.

David Price also went through arbitration 4 times and earned, $4.4M, $10.1M, $14M, and $19.8M after winning a CYA and finishing 2nd 2 other times. He set arb records that you think Folty is going to match? And he's going to match them off the back of a first year arb salary of $2.2M?

Sorry, those salaries for Folty are not even in the realm of reasonable.

The best way to maximize Folty's value to the organization is to trade him when he has 1-2 years of service time remaining, preferably at the deadline when he has 1.5 years remaining. Problem is, no team is going to trade a SP during the season when they are in contention. While trading someone like Folty in the off season after 2019 or 2020 may be the best way to maximize overall value, contending teams who aren't running a $60M payroll simply don't do that.

So, what do you think Folty's numbers will be? Do you adjust for time inflation in comparison to Price or assume equivalence? I admit that I was guessing without a lot of number crunching and comparison. But, even if it's 5,10,15 the value per dollar issue is the same. Unless you value Folty as a marketable asset like what was done with Glavine, Maddux, Smoltz or LA does with Kershaw or SF does with Madbum or the Mets have done, then his contributions to the team on a value per dollar should stand on it's own merit.

I don't think the Braves will trade Folty. I do think they should be open to it (plus Gausman) depending on return based on a value per dollar viewpoint. Newk I would be open to moving given the right return because of the significant uncertainty surrounding his continuing to take positive steps.

If Folty (or any young pitcher) came up and put up early Kershaw type numbers as a 20/21 YO, then you pretty much HAVE to view him differently. Folty hasn't been that. He's essentially learned on the job until this year (happens with a lot of pitchers) where he's 26 about to be 27. He's going to get expensive no matter the numbers, assuming he continues or improves on current pace. He's going to hit FA at 30.

It would take guts to move him now and the Braves won't do it. BUT, the right time to trade him is over the next couple of years and possibly now if his value per dollar is at it's peak.

[Enscheff]

The fatal flaw with the "WAR/$" model of team building is that a play off contender needs to get 42 WAR from 25 roster spots, and realistically they need ~40 WAR from ~15 roster spots (8 position players, 5 SPs, 1-2 BP arms, maybe a super utility guy).

As a result, teams need several players who are able to produce many WAR from a single roster spot. This concept of "WAR consolidation" is why a single 4 WAR player is worth much more than a couple 2 WAR players, and is why strict WAR/$ valuation breaks down when building a complete roster.

Yes, it's probably most efficient to trade SPs when they have 1-2 years of control remaining, and simply back fill with young guys acquired from previously traded SPs in some sort of perpetual talent machine. It will be interesting to see if the Braves actually do that during their contention window. I'm guessing they won't, and we will see them eventually run out of ammo in 5-7 years and kick off another rebuild...probably right as they are getting ready to see Albies and Acuna leave via FA since they are going to be the main cogs for the next 5+ years.

[Southcack77]

what vet pitcher will sign for $1M-5M? I mean, I suppose you could sign a guy similar to Buchholz or Cahill and hope they work out, but every one of them there's probably 3-4 Doug Fisters or Yovani Gallardos. we've gotten pretty lucky with sanchez, but it's not a chance that sounds great to take.

Anibal Sanchez, Chacin, just from the Braves experience.

there are usually plenty of reclamation projects floating around. The purpose of picking up a veteran would be place holding and insurance, I would assume.

If they are looking to spend 12 million, they can find better guys than Teheran, IMO.

It's moot though. They're obligated to Teheran.

[nsacpi]

one way to think about it is a mid market team like the Braves can afford 5 or 6 players making 15-20M...most of them should be position players but there is room for one or two pitchers making that kind of money...the FO needs to be wise and a little lucky in their choice of who to hand that kind of contract to

[Horsehide Harry]

The fatal flaw with the "WAR/$" model of team building is that a play off contender needs to get 42 WAR from 25 roster spots, and realistically they need ~40 WAR from ~15 roster spots (8 position players, 5 SPs, 1-2 BP arms, maybe a super utility guy).

As a result, teams need several players who are able to produce many WAR from a single roster spot. This concept of "WAR consolidation" is why a single 4 WAR player is worth much more than a couple 2 WAR players, and is why strict WAR/$ valuation breaks down when building a complete roster.

Yes, it's probably most efficient to trade SPs when they have 1-2 years of control remaining, and simply back fill with young guys acquired from previously traded SPs in some sort of perpetual talent machine. It will be interesting to see if the Braves actually do that during their contention window. I'm guessing they won't, and we will see them eventually run out of ammo in 5-7 years and kick off another rebuild...probably right as they are getting ready to see Albies and Acuna leave via FA since they are going to be the main cogs for the next 5+ years.

I agree with what you are saying. BUT, if you can get a 4 WAR pitcher for $2M, then that is better than a 4 WAR pitcher for $15 or $20M and not trading Folty assumes that his replacement will provide less WAR. That's possible but not necessarily true. For instance, would Touki provide 4 WAR next year with Folty traded? That's unknown, maybe even unlikely. But if you trade Touki for needed WAR elsewhere, then you never find that out as a Brave. To me, it's an equation: Folty value/dollar + WAR return (potential) value/dollar of prospect trade <=> WAR return (potential) value/dollar of Folty return + WAR return (potential) value/dollar of internal/external replacement (no double counting). And that has to be evaluated over time.

It seems clear to me that the Braves have their marketing core of the future as revealed by this year - Acuna, Albies, Freeman, Swanson (FO wants this badly but he's almost played himself out of the position). Folty isn't in that group from a marketing perspective. Again, they won't do it but should be open to it.

[Horsehide Harry]

one way to think about it is a mid market team like the Braves can afford 5 or 6 players making 15-20M...most of them should be position players but there is room for one or two pitchers making that kind of money...the FO needs to be wise and a little lucky in their choice of who to hand that kind of contract to

I agree. And there is risk/reward with everything. Making a bold move, even if it long term works out as a benefit but short term is painful, isn't really encouraged for ML FO.

[nsacpi]

I agree. And there is risk/reward with everything. Making a bold move, even if it long term works out as a benefit but short term is painful, isn't really encouraged for ML FO.

I think we can be patient about the young pitching prospects...more than most around here I believe there is benefit to letting a prospect marinate in AAA...a player can develop just as well there as in the majors...so there is nothing wrong with asking guys like Touki, Wright, and Wilson to dominate in AAA over a 20 start stretch or so...we've rushed some of these guys..
sometimes out of necessity...but rushing them shouldn't be a regular practice

[Enscheff]

I agree with what you are saying. BUT, if you can get a 4 WAR pitcher for $2M, then that is better than a 4 WAR pitcher for $15 or $20M and not trading Folty assumes that his replacement will provide less WAR. That's possible but not necessarily true. For instance, would Touki provide 4 WAR next year with Folty traded? That's unknown, maybe even unlikely. But if you trade Touki for needed WAR elsewhere, then you never find that out as a Brave. To me, it's an equation: Folty value/dollar + WAR return (potential) value/dollar of prospect trade <=> WAR return (potential) value/dollar of Folty return + WAR return (potential) value/dollar of internal/external replacement (no double counting). And that has to be evaluated over time.

It seems clear to me that the Braves have their marketing core of the future as revealed by this year - Acuna, Albies, Freeman, Swanson (FO wants this badly but he's almost played himself out of the position). Folty isn't in that group from a marketing perspective. Again, they won't do it but should be open to it.

Yes, we all understand that it’s preferable to get 4 wins for $2M than for $15M. The Braves aren’t going to find a 4 win pitcher for $2M, so I assume you mean Touki.

The point is the Braves will want Touki and Folty producing 8 wins for $17M rather than Touki and some $10M pitcher producing 5-6 wins because they are trying to win now.

Not very many teams have the discipline to follow the Rays model, and I doubt the Braves will do it. Unless they have a down season that allows them to reload at a trade deadline, I don’t think they’ll trade proven guys to maximize value.

One exception could be if they match up with a team in a similar position as the Brewers this offseason. The Brewers had a surplus of MLB ready OFers and a need in the rotation that could have allowed 2 “win now” teams to match up in a trade.

[Southcack77]

Not very many teams have the discipline to follow the Rays model, and I doubt the Braves will do it. Unless they have a down season that allows them to reload at a trade deadline, I don’t think they’ll trade proven guys to maximize value.



I think this is correct. The Braves have a 50% payroll advantage over the Rays and that allows them to fill a few more holes through free agency and trade than the Rays can.

But they have a lot less flexibility than the Yankees or Red Sox or Dodgers, etc. So they should be looking to sell when it isn't their year. When it isn't their year, moving a guy like Folty near the end of his control might make perfect sense.

If the bad year doesn't happen and they simply run out of talent, then that's just the way it worked out. Hopefully, you've done enough things creatively over the years in the draft and international signings and strategic acquisitions that the down turn isn't five years.

[GeorgiaGirl]

Unless the Braves are going to expand payroll, they kinda are going to have to operate like the Rays. I wouldn’t do it exactly that way though. Position player wise I’d be less strict.

You must put a lot of trust into your ability to evaluate pitching though to do it. The mantra pitching wise should be develop, develop, extend the pitchers you really trust if you can, trade the ones you don’t at a certain point, and keep going developmental wise with younger pitching.

[Southcack77]

Unless the Braves are going to expand payroll, they kinda are going to have to operate like the Rays. I wouldn’t do it exactly that way though. Position player wise I’d be less strict.

You must put a lot of trust into your ability to evaluate pitching though to do it. The mantra pitching wise should be develop, develop, extend the pitchers you really trust if you can, trade the ones you don’t at a certain point, and keep going developmental wise with younger pitching.


Braves have a 50% payroll advantage over the Rays. They don't need to operate the same way.

[Carp]

It would only be hard if he continues to improve into a real ACE, which is certainly possible. But, with success comes increased monetary cost. Can this team afford a $20M Folty headed into FA? A $15M Gausman? A $15M Newk? The key for teams like the Braves IMO is value per dollar.

A 5WAR pitcher at $20M is good value. A 3WAR pitcher at $2M is better value, especially if you took the 5WAR guy and turned him into 5 or more WAR value in young players that help the team, now or in the future. MLB is fast becoming a young man's game (more so than it ever was) and it's value per dollar thinking that is driving that.

Finding a 3 WAR pitcher at 2 million isn't any easier. Since the rebuild started, we've acquired exactly 2 pitchers who have put together at least one 3 WAR season, and that is Shelby Miller and Folty's current season.

It's a decent idea in theory, but practically it doesn't make any sense for a contending team with (hopefully) an increasing payroll to sell off its best assests.

[Horsehide Harry]

Finding a 3 WAR pitcher at 2 million isn't any easier. Since the rebuild started, we've acquired exactly 2 pitchers who have put together at least one 3 WAR season, and that is Shelby Miller and Folty's current season.

It's a decent idea in theory, but practically it doesn't make any sense for a contending team with (hopefully) an increasing payroll to sell off its best assests.

The payroll difference between the Braves and Rays is part of the argument IMO. The Braves, within limits, have a much better possibility of buying their way out of mistakes or into needed help than the Rays. Which means making a move that has some risk easier than the Rays. You could then say that it's easier still for the RS, Yanks and Dodgers but they don't have the need to take chances on amassing young talent when they can buy what's needed, when needed.

I'm not saying there is no risk because their is. It would be a bit of a boom or bust play instead of a steady we might win with some luck play...

[Enscheff]

If the Braves simply avoid extending pitchers into their 30s, and signing FA pitchers already in their 30s to deals longer than 1-2 years, they will be way ahead of the game. Letting Folty and Gausman walk after their current team control expires will be a good first step in that regard (unlike the extension suggestions recently written by the hacks over at TC).

I'll settle for them just doing that, and not worry about trading legit MLB SPs during years of contention in attempt to maximize long term value.

[Acuña’s Bat Flip]

Wilson really took it on the chin!

[OcalaBrave]

Reverse the process. Which prospects absolutely need a major league path next year?

Touki, Soroka, Gohara and Wright?

Even if you try to cram those 4 into 2 spots, one of the 4 established starters has to go. Who has the most value? Trade that guy because I don't see any of them as a 1 or 2. Folty could be, but his clock is getting short.

[Acuña’s Bat Flip]

Newcomb probably has no trade value now.

[GeorgiaGirl]

This stuff usually works out. Newcomb has trade value because he's a living, breathing left hander, and I'd run before he destroys it totally this offseason. I'd rather live with sure mediocrity with Teheran then a guy that could give up 5+ at the drop of a dime. I thought I might be able to live with a Gio like pitcher, I can't. If he breaks out elsewhere, oh well unless we guessed wrong on everyone we have.

But with everyone else:

Touki: Honestly unless he gets destroyed down the stretch and has a bad ST I think he is a starter in some capacity from very early next season even if no one gets moved. He absolutely owned it down the stretch in the minors and it was pretty much the Acuna 2017 like breakout of this season, just as a pitcher. He'll have his ups and downs but he has nothing else to do in the minors.
Soroka: Until we figure out the plans with him, I wouldn't be counting on him for more than 15 starts. I think they're going to be protective of him due to the shoulder inflammation injury.
Gohara: How high is the AA FO on him? It seems much different than Coppy and really seemed that way from the start (even before we learned about the family stuff). I can't blame him for what's going on with him in his family though and he probably deserves a shot again.
Wright: If secondhand information is correct, the Braves seem to want him to make his major league starting debut early next summer unless he has a setback.

Wilson: It's not very popular because he has an absolute bulldog mentality as a starter, but if you believe he can hone his off speed pitches even more, what we've seen so far probably should just be a sneak peak and not (unless there is a series of injuries) he has a legit chance at starting for ML team from early in the season. I think we see at least 10 starts from him too.

[Acuña’s Bat Flip]

I think Wilson is most likely to be traded.

[Carp]

It's funny to see everyone jump off the Newk bandwagon when nearly everyone thought he was Lester 2.0 at the end of June and July.


He's had 1 bad month... Get real people.

[Super]

It's funny to see everyone jump off the Newk bandwagon when nearly everyone thought he was Lester 2.0 at the end of June and July.


He's had 1 bad month... Get real people.

I don't think many thought he was "Lester 2.0" and his bad month is extremely concerning. Perhaps he's tired, but he should have his turn skipped.

[striker42]

I'm not even close to ready to give up on Newcomb. With just average control he'd be a very good starter considering how difficult to hit his stuff is. I think there's a good chance that Newcomb manages to cobble together decent enough control to put together a 2-3 year run in his prime where he's a very effective pitcher.

That being said, I wonder if he'd do better out of the pen the rest of the year.

[Carp]

I don't think many thought he was "Lester 2.0" and his bad month is extremely concerning. Perhaps he's tired, but he should have his turn skipped.

Do you not remember the Folty vs Newk thread? Or GeorgiaGirl, thethe, and several others talking about how much better Newk was than Folty? I would suggest going back and re-reading the threads in June and around August 2nd.

He's not pitching well now obviously. I have no problem with people pointing that out or saying he needs his next start pushed back a bit. It's the knee jerk reactions like "we need explore trading him" or "he has lost all his trade value" that several people are posting that have become ridiculous.

[zbhargrove]

Newcomb probably has no trade value now.

Yeah probably not... I mean, he's shown periods of absolute dominance and brilliance in a rookie year, but yeah.. likely no value... The Chainz strikes again...

[Super]

Do you not remember the Folty vs Newk thread? Or GeorgiaGirl, thethe, and several others talking about how much better Newk was than Folty? I would suggest going back and re-reading the threads in June and around August 2nd.

"I don't think *many* thought...". My point stands. A few did. A few, including myself, were favoring him over Folty. I was wrong on that. And while he looked better earlier in the year, he was getting pretty lucky and his control continues to regress while his k-rate also does. That's...not good.

I'm not giving up on him. But he has a long way to go still to have even average control. It's dreadful at the moment. It's a slim shot he gets to average control. He could be fine with even just "bad" instead of "very very bad" control. But that still seems a long ways away. But hey, Folty improved significantly from last year to now, so maybe Newk can, too.

[GeorgiaGirl]

And I've already admitted that I was completely, STUPIDLY wrong on Newcomb. It's stupid to believe a guy with lousy control can beat their peripherals. In the end, he's going to have a season where there was no improvement from 2017. I bet he has a 4 ERA in the end.

[thewupk]

And I've already admitted that I was completely, STUPIDLY wrong on Newcomb. It's stupid to believe a guy with lousy control can beat their peripherals. In the end, he's going to have a season where there was no improvement from 2017. I bet he has a 4 ERA in the end.

Pretty much. 4.18 FIP last season. 4.19 FIP right now.

[clvclv]

I'm not even close to ready to give up on Newcomb. With just average control he'd be a very good starter considering how difficult to hit his stuff is. I think there's a good chance that Newcomb manages to cobble together decent enough control to put together a 2-3 year run in his prime where he's a very effective pitcher.

That being said, I wonder if he'd do better out of the pen the rest of the year.

This is where the problem lies. Much like Folty earlier on, the control is simply showing no improvement other than for short stretches. That's absolutely not to say he can't eventually turn it around - Folty did. The difference is that this team isn't going to be in a position to have one of its top SPs running out there and trying to "figure it out" moving forward - the window is opening. Soroka (when healthy), Touki, and Wright have all shown much better control and command and are ready. Folty, Gausman, Julio (assuming he's not dealt), and Soroka (assuming health) are all likely locked-in to 2019 rotation spots. Touki and Wright appear to be better options right now, and AA has bags of money to spend somewhere. If AA decides he HAS to have a lefty in the rotation, I still would prefer throwing some money at Patrick Corbin and using Newk in a deal for Realmuto. Send them some MLB-ready arms to get him and help clear the logjam - Newk, Fried, Wilson, Wentz (further away), Beck, A-Jax - whatever it took to make it happen without including Soroka, Gohara, Wright, Touki, and Anderson. While Gohara's control may be just as iffy, putting him in Gwinnett next year for as long as it takes won't be nearly as complicated as sending Newk down to figure things out would be.

I don't think anybody's "bailing on him" as others have suggested as much as they're simply frustrated and coming to the conclusion that he may never reach his ceiling as has been discussed before. With his stuff, he's probably going to still be OK as a back-end guy even if he continues walking 4-4.5 guys per 9 - he just won't be very useful doing that on a team that hopes to legitimately contend since Julio can be that guy to soak up innings that's already getting paid. Soroka, Touki, Wright, potentially Gohara, and eventually Anderson or Muller would be better fits.

[thewupk]

Since twittergate Newk has a 6.67 ERA and 4.70 FIP. Not good.

[GeorgiaGirl]

Again, until we figure out the club's 2019 plans with Soroka, we should not assume he's the 5th man out of ST next season. I don't think this should be too hard to figure out. He showed that he was ready but because of the shoulder inflammation, they're likely going to baby him and I don't think AA was too happy about how a teen arm got pushed with him even though he decided to shift into winning mode and bring him up early May this year.

That's why although he's probably ahead of the pecking order from Touki, I would not be shocked if he doesn't start early next season for the big league club.

[Jaw]

Again, until we figure out the club's 2019 plans with Soroka, we should not assume he's the 5th man out of ST next season. I don't think this should be too hard to figure out. He showed that he was ready but because of the shoulder inflammation, they're likely going to baby him and I don't think AA was too happy about how a teen arm got pushed with him even though he decided to shift into winning mode and bring him up early May this year.

That's why although he's probably ahead of the pecking order from Touki, I would not be shocked if he doesn't start early next season for the big league club.

For someone not happy with pushing young arms, AA has certainly done quite a bit of it this year.

[Enscheff]

It's funny to see everyone jump off the Newk bandwagon when nearly everyone thought he was Lester 2.0 at the end of June and July.


He's had 1 bad month... Get real people.

Yeah, the rapid swings in how folks view players is comical. Newk absolutely has value...quite a bit, actually.

The best thing about guys with the "stuff #4" label is that they tend to hold their trade value because so many people love to dream on the "what if" scenario.

Even if he is nothing more than a 2 win SP or a high leverage BP arm that can go multiple innings...that's still a very valuable player due to the amount of cheap control he has and the fact that 2 win MLB players are valuable.

[Enscheff]

Do you not remember the Folty vs Newk thread? Or GeorgiaGirl, thethe, and several others talking about how much better Newk was than Folty? I would suggest going back and re-reading the threads in June and around August 2nd.

He's not pitching well now obviously. I have no problem with people pointing that out or saying he needs his next start pushed back a bit. It's the knee jerk reactions like "we need explore trading him" or "he has lost all his trade value" that several people are posting that have become ridiculous.

It was rather amusing reading folks try to claim Newk was better than Folty despite me pointing out all the areas Newk was bound to regress. They argued and argued and argued against the data I provided. The most hilarious "point" was tehteh claiming Newk had better control in the zone and threw better strikes than Folty haha. I'll spare you all a list of 20 dumb quotes though.

Folty was struggling with control, but he had shown better control in his MLB career, so it was reasonable to assume he would figure it out considering his stuff isn't declining.

Newk was just Newk with declining stuff...plus a lot of luck. I have been saying it for months. Someone quoted me in their sig as proof of that.

[Acuña’s Bat Flip]

Yeah probably not... I mean, he's shown periods of absolute dominance and brilliance in a rookie year, but yeah.. likely no value... The Chainz strikes again...

How is he still a rookie?

[zbhargrove]

How is he still a rookie?

Maybe not a rookie but he only had 100 IP last year. It's ridiculous to think he has no value... it's actually downright stupid.

[Acuña’s Bat Flip]

Maybe not a rookie but he only had 100 IP last year. It's ridiculous to think he has no value... it's actually downright stupid.

I doubt you'd get much for someone that walks so many batters. At this moment he has little trade value.

[Carp]

I doubt you'd get much for someone that walks so many batters. At this moment he has little trade value.

You have zero basis for this argument. Tyler Glasnow has had a worse career thus far than Newk and yet he was a centerpiece in the Archer deal.

[zbhargrove]

I doubt you'd get much for someone that walks so many batters. At this moment he has little trade value.

You're ridiculous. Most young pitchers walk a ton. Come back to me when you want to talk about something you're not emotional about.

[clvclv]

You have zero basis for this argument. Tyler Glasnow has had a worse career thus far than Newk and yet he was a centerpiece in the Archer deal.

Does this mean the Rays aren't using the omnipotent Value Scale everyone HAS TO go by these days?

I mean, His Highness constantly told us that an Archer deal for us would have had to include 3 of our top arms plus Pache/Riley and probably a sweetener. At one point I think he mentioned Acuna would have to be part of a deal for him.

I noticed he never mentioned anything about the Gausman deal not fitting what AA would have had to give up based on his FV numbers as well.

[Enscheff]

Does this mean the Rays aren't using the omnipotent Value Scale everyone HAS TO go by these days?

I mean, His Highness constantly told us that an Archer deal for us would have had to include 3 of our top arms plus Pache/Riley and probably a sweetener. At one point I think he mentioned Acuna would have to be part of a deal for him.

I noticed he never mentioned anything about the Gausman deal not fitting what AA would have had to give up based on his FV numbers as well.

LOL...so dense...so incredibly dense...

Do you even know what the Pirates gave up for Archer other than Glasnow? It was a huge package, the value of which is precisely in line with what everyone expected the Rays to get for Archer. You're just too dumb to understand the value of the package. We went over that package in detail at the time of the trade, evaluating the value exchanged as well as the equivalent package from the Braves. Maybe you should go read it and try to absorb some knowledge into that severely limited brain of yours...you might need to read it all multiple times.

And sure, let's evaluate the Gausman deal at the time it was made...

Braves get...

Gausman: less than 0.5 projected wins in 2018 rest of season, times 2 for contender's premium, minus the $1M he is owed is $5M-$10M in surplus value. Projecting 2.5 wins per season over the next 2 years of control at an estimated arb salary of $18M-$20M total is another ~$30M. That is a total surplus value in the range of $35M-$40M.

O'Day: injured in 2018, so -$3M in surplus value this year. Guaranteed $9M next year, and almost certainly would not be given that much money if he were a FA right now. At best his surplus value is 0, but it is almost certainly negative a few million bucks.

Orioles get...

$2.5M in international pool money, which is valued at roughly 2x-5x the amount. That's $5M-$10M in surplus value, maybe a bit more if there's a hot new international guy on the market.

Phillips: FV 40 is roughly $5M in surplus value.

Encarnacion: FV 40+ is roughly $5M-$10M in surplus value.

Cumberland: FV 45+ is roughly $10M-$15M in surplus value.

Zimmermann: FV 35+ is almost valueless.

Add that up and the Braves got ~$35M in surplus value with plenty of additional downside risk in O'Day, while the Orioles got $25M-$40M in surplus value.

The numbers match up perfectly yet again. And yet again, you prove to be the dumbest poster on these boards.

[clvclv]

LOL...so dense...so incredibly dense...

Do you even know what the Pirates gave up for Archer other than Glasnow? It was a huge package, the value of which is precisely in line with what everyone expected the Rays to get for Archer. You're just too dumb to understand the value of the package. We went over that package in detail at the time of the trade, evaluating the value exchanged as well as the equivalent package from the Braves. Maybe you should go read it and try to absorb some knowledge into that severely limited brain of yours...you might need to read it all multiple times.

And sure, let's evaluate the Gausman deal at the time it was made...

Braves get...

Gausman: less than 0.5 projected wins in 2018 rest of season, times 2 for contender's premium, minus the $1M he is owed is $5M-$10M in surplus value. Projecting 2.5 wins per season over the next 2 years of control at an estimated arb salary of $18M-$20M total is another ~$30M. That is a total surplus value in the range of $35M-$40M.

O'Day: injured in 2018, so -$3M in surplus value this year. Guaranteed $9M next year, and almost certainly would not be given that much money if he were a FA right now. At best his surplus value is 0, but it is almost certainly negative a few million bucks.

Orioles get...

$2.5M in international pool money, which is valued at roughly 2x-5x the amount. That's $5M-$10M in surplus value, maybe a bit more if there's a hot new international guy on the market.

Phillips: FV 40 is roughly $5M in surplus value.

Encarnacion: FV 40+ is roughly $5M-$10M in surplus value.

Cumberland: FV 45+ is roughly $10M-$15M in surplus value.

Zimmermann: FV 35+ is almost valueless.

Add that up and the Braves got ~$35M in surplus value with plenty of additional downside risk in O'Day, while the Orioles got $25M-$40M in surplus value.

The numbers match up perfectly yet again. And yet again, you prove to be the dumbest poster on these boards.


Make sure to let us all know when any of that translates to the jolt Gausman's given the Braves. Particularly the international funds that the Braves couldn't have spent in the first place.

Again, the numbers and projections are all fine and fun to talk about - unfortunately those guys are a long way away from contributing to even one win for the Baltimore organization.

Apparently they need to add a "Surplus Value" column to scoreboards and boxscores so we'll finally know who actually won the game since the Runs column is so antiquated.

[Enscheff]

Make sure to let us all know when any of that translates to the jolt Gausman's given the Braves. Particularly the international funds that the Braves couldn't have spent in the first place.

Again, the numbers and projections are all fine and fun to talk about - unfortunately those guys are a long way away from contributing to even one win for the Baltimore organization.

Apparently they need to add a "Surplus Value" column to scoreboards and boxscores so we'll finally know who actually won the game since the Runs column is so antiquated.

The pride you take in being consistently stupid is why you’re such a good little Trumpkin.

Poor attempt at moving the goal posts of your argument and setting up a straw man though. Nobody claimed Gausman hasn’t been huge. I was refuting your statement that the surplus value model didn’t hold up in the trade.

What a clown. Derp on Trumpkin, derp on.

[Tapate50]

I think it would be best if you two put each other on ignore