Extenting Acuna

[nsacpi]

Reasons to do it and do it this off-season:

1) On the right terms, it extents the team's competitive window beyond the six years we have him under control.

2) His skill set is going to be well rewarded by arbitration.

3) The arbitration process is also likely to reward him for high finishes in MVP voting.

4) Getting him signed on the right terms sends a signal to the other core players and will probably also make it easier to hold on to them on the team friendly terms.

5) There is a serious risk that waiting will just drive up the price. So do it this off-season if at all possible.

So what are the right terms. I am a Braves fan first and foremost and would like to see the terms be as team friendly as is realistically possible. With that in mind I would like to see a ten-year deal along these lines:

Year 1: 2M
Year 2: 4M
Year 3: 10M
Year 4: 13M
Year 5: 16M
Year 6: 19M
Year 7: 22M
Year 8: 24M
Year 9: 27M
Year 10: 30M

[BeanieAntics]

I don't think he would accept anything beyond an 8 year deal, but if he would take this then I'd do it in a heartbeat. I think year 7,8,9,10 would all have to be at 30 million plus though. I'd also be willing to put more money in years 1 and 2 if it meant we could extend him for longer.

[bravesfanMatt]

I don't think he would accept anything beyond an 8 year deal, but if he would take this then I'd do it in a heartbeat. I think year 7,8,9,10 would all have to be at 30 million plus though. I'd also be willing to put more money in years 1 and 2 if it meant we could extend him for longer.

He might not. But when you present an offer of 150 million plus guaranteed. It is hard to pass up. Even a ten year deal gets him one more huge payday at 31.

[nsacpi]

I don't think he would accept anything beyond an 8 year deal, but if he would take this then I'd do it in a heartbeat. I think year 7,8,9,10 would all have to be at 30 million plus though. I'd also be willing to put more money in years 1 and 2 if it meant we could extend him for longer.

Good point on Year 1 and 2. Adding to those years might be one way to hold down the AAV. There were some quotes from his father during the spring that were supportive of his taking a long-term deal. The knee injury might have reinforced the point that there is a certain amount of risk in life and that he should grab the opportunity to ensure his future and his family's future (including generations not yet born).

[nsacpi]

He might not. But when you present an offer of 150 million plus guaranteed. It is hard to pass up. Even a ten year deal gets him one more huge payday at 31.

Yes a ten-year deal ends after his age 30 season. He would still have a chance for another yuge deal.

[Julio3000]

Man, that would be something to dream on. Now that we’re officially competitors, my anxiety has shifted to how a middle-pack payroll team can extend, er, extent their window of opportunity. This would be a yuge, like Harang/Laird battery yuge, step.

[nsacpi]

Man, that would be something to dream on. Now that we’re officially competitors, my anxiety has shifted to how a middle-pack payroll team can extend, er, extent their window of opportunity. This would be a yuge, like Harang/Laird battery yuge, step.

massive really...as in Colon/Harang/Laird combined

[Southcack77]

Reasons to do it and do it this off-season:

1) On the right terms, it extents the team's competitive window beyond the six years we have him under control.

2) His skill set is going to be well rewarded by arbitration.

3) The arbitration process is also likely to reward him for high finishes in MVP voting.

4) Getting him signed on the right terms sends a signal to the other core players and will probably also make it easier to hold on to them on the team friendly terms.

5) There is a serious risk that waiting will just drive up the price. So do it this off-season if at all possible.

So what are the right terms. I am a Braves fan first and foremost and would like to see the terms be as team friendly as is realistically possible. With that in mind I would like to see a ten-year deal along these lines:

Year 1: 2M
Year 2: 4M
Year 3: 10M
Year 4: 13M
Year 5: 16M
Year 6: 19M
Year 7: 22M
Year 8: 24M
Year 9: 27M
Year 10: 30M


I think if Acuna played for another team and was hitting free agency this season, you would be against signing him to the same 10 year deal you are proposing here.

[BeanieAntics]

massive really...as in Colon/Harang/Laird combined

Add in post-jail Denny Mclain and you're probably in the ballpark of yuge-ness

[BeanieAntics]

I think if Acuna played for another team and was hitting free agency this season, you would be against signing him to the same 10 year deal you are proposing here.

If he was 28 or something, ready to enter free agency, yeah I'd definitely be against it too. Even though the structure would be completely different and the fact that Acuna is only 20 makes it about as apples to oranges as you can get.

[bravesfanMatt]

I think if Acuna played for another team and was hitting free agency this season, you would be against signing him to the same 10 year deal you are proposing here.

I wouldn’t.

Take Vlad jr. if he did what acuña is doing. I would be willing to pay him close to that. Just vlad doesn’t have the overall game like vtrout.

[Enscheff]

Acuna is extremely unlikely to sign an extension taking him through his age 30 season, dropping him onto the FA market ahead of his age 31 season. His agent knows his skills are going to be richly rewarded in arbitration, so there is little reason to give the Braves a huge discount.

The Braves already control Acuna's age 21-26 seasons, and assuming the star/superstar path he is likely to take, the upper limit of his cost will be roughly...

2019 (21): $0.75M (pre-arb 2, similar to Bryant)
2020 (22): $1M (pre-arb 3, similar to Bryant)
2021 (23): $10M (arb 1, will flirt with Bryant's 1st year arb record)
2022 (24): $15M (arb 2)
2023 (25): $19M (arb 3)
2024 (26): $23M (arb 4, flirting with Donaldson's 4th year arb record)

That puts the upper bound of Acuna's earnings going year to year at around 6/70. He will then be in line to hit the open market ahead of his age 27 season poised to sign the largest contract in MLB history, and certainly larger than $400M, while making upwards of $40M per season.

So the Braves need to guarantee less than 6/70, while pushing a chunk of the money forward into his pre-arb seasons, and secure 1-2 options at around $30M to make sense.

Your proposed $2M/$4M/$10M/$13M/$16M/$19M comes out to 6/64, and is roughly in the ballpark, and may actually be a bit steep.

The 4/103 tacked onto the end is not realistic at all. Acuna is not going to give up his peak earning years that will see him earning $40M per year.

The most likely extension is something along the lines of 6/60 for his control years, followed by 1-2 options at $30M+. That allows the Braves to save ~$10M per year on a couple FA years, and still allows Acuna to hit the FA market in time for a record setting deal.

The most likely outcome is he does what all recent elite young players are doing and goes year to year so he can hit FA at the youngest age possible. The Braves knew this, which is why they correctly played the service time game with him.

[nsacpi]

I think if Acuna played for another team and was hitting free agency this season, you would be against signing him to the same 10 year deal you are proposing here.

Absolutely. I have indicated my allegiance in the post.

[nsacpi]

Acuna is extremely unlikely to sign an extension taking him through his age 30 season, dropping him onto the FA market ahead of his age 31 season. His agent knows his skills are going to be richly rewarded in arbitration, so there is little reason to give the Braves a huge discount.

The Braves already control Acuna's age 21-26 seasons, and assuming the star/superstar path he is likely to take, the upper limit of his cost will be roughly...

2019 (21): $0.75M (pre-arb 2, similar to Bryant)
2020 (22): $1M (pre-arb 3, similar to Bryant)
2021 (23): $10M (arb 1, will flirt with Bryant's 1st year arb record)
2022 (24): $15M (arb 2)
2023 (25): $19M (arb 3)
2024 (26): $23M (arb 4, flirting with Donaldson's 4th year arb record)

That puts the upper bound of Acuna's earnings going year to year at around 6/70. He will then be in line to hit the open market ahead of his age 27 season poised to sign the largest contract in MLB history, and certainly larger than $400M, while making upwards of $40M per season.

So the Braves need to guarantee less than 6/70, while pushing a chunk of the money forward into his pre-arb seasons, and secure 1-2 options at around $30M to make sense.

Your proposed $2M/$4M/$10M/$13M/$16M/$19M comes out to 6/64, and is roughly in the ballpark, and may actually be a bit steep.

The 4/103 tacked onto the end is not realistic at all. Acuna is not going to give up his peak earning years that will see him earning $40M per year.

The most likely extension is something along the lines of 6/60 for his control years, followed by 1-2 options at $30M+. That allows the Braves to save ~$10M per year on a couple FA years, and still allows Acuna to hit the FA market in time for a record setting deal.

The most likely outcome is he does what all recent elite young players are doing and goes year to year so he can hit FA at the youngest age possible. The Braves knew this, which is why they correctly played the service time game with him.

You are correct in terms of logic. What we have to hope for is that he and his agents/advisers are a bit naive and risk averse. The 6/64 front end is a little generous as you note. My idea is to pad it a bit in the early years to get a significant discount on the four FA years. He might well reject it, but I think it is worth a try.

[Southcack77]

Best part of team control is that you don't have to pay the player what he's worth and you don't assume any risk of his injury or sudden diminishment of ability.

I'm much more content to let Acuna get closer to free agency to limit some of that risk.

the Braves don't even know what he is right now really.

[BeanieAntics]

Oh. My. God. I just read the dumbest thing I've ever read in regards to Braves baseball. Its dumber than anything I've read on here, even though I have only been around a year. Garrett Spain at Talking Chop went to his computer to type up an article, and thought that this sentence made sense:

"There’s no real wrong answer there as trading a major league asset like Culberson could net more of a return than Riley and the Braves organization holds Riley in high regards."

I don't know where to put this and I didn't want to make another thread. But holy crap. He thinks that Charlie Culberson would get you more value than Austin Riley on the trade market. Should target Odorizzi? Could Culberson possibly get us better? Maybe Pittsburgh is ready to bail out on the Archer experiment and is down for a 1 for 1 swap?....

How in the actual hell does he think Culberson carries that much value? I'm flabbergasted.

https://www.talkingchop.com/2018/9/10/17838930/atlanta-braves-prospects-trades-cristian-pache-austin-riley-ian-anderson-luiz-gohara-bryse-wilson

[nsacpi]

Best part of team control is that you don't have to pay the player what he's worth and you don't assume any risk of his injury or sudden diminishment of ability.

I'm much more content to let Acuna get closer to free agency to limit some of that risk.

the Braves don't even know what he is right now really.

The idea is to take on some risk in exchange for extenting the window of contention.

[BeanieAntics]

Best part of team control is that you don't have to pay the player what he's worth and you don't assume any risk of his injury or sudden diminishment of ability.

I'm much more content to let Acuna get closer to free agency to limit some of that risk.

the Braves don't even know what he is right now really.

If you wait then you're gonna end up having to pay Acuna an absurd amount of money to extend him. Nscapi's idea is to assume some of that injury risk for Acuna by paying him more earlier in order to get more significant discounts on years 7, 8, 9, and 10. If it were possible, I think that would be a much better idea for the team than waiting for Acuna to be in year 5 where we have to give him an insanely large contract.

[nsacpi]

Oh. My. God. I just read the dumbest thing I've ever read in regards to Braves baseball. Its dumber than anything I've read on here, even though I have only been around a year. Garrett Spain at Talking Chop went to his computer to type up an article, and thought that this sentence made sense:

"There’s no real wrong answer there as trading a major league asset like Culberson could net more of a return than Riley and the Braves organization holds Riley in high regards."

I don't know where to put this and I didn't want to make another thread. But holy crap. He thinks that Charlie Culberson would get you more value than Austin Riley on the trade market. Should target Odorizzi? Could Culberson possibly get us better? Maybe Pittsburgh is ready to bail out on the Archer experiment and is down for a 1 for 1 swap?....

How in the actual hell does he think Culberson carries that much value? I'm flabbergasted.

https://www.talkingchop.com/2018/9/10/17838930/atlanta-braves-prospects-trades-cristian-pache-austin-riley-ian-anderson-luiz-gohara-bryse-wilson

Lots of people don't realize how unsustainable Culberson's results this year have been. It is not hard to figure out. All you have to do is look at his walk and strikeout rates. There is an important takeaway: we need to give Duvall more changes to come out of his slump rather than to head into the off-season counting on Culberson as a pinch hitter.

[nsacpi]

If you wait then you're gonna end up having to pay Acuna an absurd amount of money to extend him. Nscapi's idea is to assume some of that injury risk for Acuna by paying him more earlier in order to get more significant discounts on years 7, 8, 9, and 10. If it were possible, I think that would be a much better idea for the team than waiting for Acuna to be in year 5 where we have to give him an insanely large contract.

if its gonna happen it will be this off-season

[BeanieAntics]

Lots of people don't realize how lucky Culberson has been. It is not hard to figure out. All you have to do is look at his walk and strikeout rates.

I don't pull the flabbergasted card all that often, but when I read that it took my breath away. Are we sure that Garrett Spain isn't actually Dave Stewart? Anybody seen them in a room at the same time?

[Southcack77]

The idea is to take on some risk in exchange for extenting the window of contention.

I think all you've done is guaranteed Acuna will be on the team.

For this deal to have much surplus value, Acuna is nearly going to have to set a hall of fame pace.

[Enscheff]

If you wait then you're gonna end up having to pay Acuna an absurd amount of money to extend him. Nscapi's idea is to assume some of that injury risk for Acuna by paying him more earlier in order to get more significant discounts on years 7, 8, 9, and 10. If it were possible, I think that would be a much better idea for the team than waiting for Acuna to be in year 5 where we have to give him an insanely large contract.

This is pretty much the only chance the Braves have to extend Acuna unless he turns into a disappointment that we don't care about extending.

His first arb salary will be huge money (nearing or beating $10M), and as soon as he's within a year of that payday there will be zero incentive for him to sign an extension.

The Braves have to decide how much risk they are willing to assume with Acuna this offseason and then live with that decision for the next decade.

[bravesfanforlife88]

I just hope we don't get into the situation where we don't extend him, then wait too long to trade him, similar to the O's/Machado

[Enscheff]

I just hope we don't get into the situation where we don't extend him, then wait too long to trade him, similar to the O's/Machado

If he turns into a 6-8 WAR monster it will be hard to trade him while the contention window is open. The Braves window likely opens and closes with Acuna being in Atlanta.

The O's were dumb because they weren't in contention even with Machado, so keeping him was moronic. The O's are just dumb, period.

[nsacpi]

I think all you've done is guaranteed Acuna will be on the team.

For this deal to have much surplus value, Acuna is nearly going to have to set a hall of fame pace.

Not really, I'm pricing him as a 3 win player in those 4 FA seasons. All he has to do is deliver 4 wins in those years and it will have increased the surplus value.

[nsacpi]

I just hope we don't get into the situation where we don't extend him, then wait too long to trade him, similar to the O's/Machado

My point is this off-season might be our one chance to avoid falling into a Harper/Machado type situation. If he has a 6+ WAR season next year, it becomes very difficult.

AA has to try to extent him this off-season. Maybe it won't be possible to get a deal done. But he has to try. This is our best window to extent him on team friendly terms.

[BeanieAntics]

Yeah, that is exactly the goal. To keep Acuna on the team.

And this deal would have a TON of surplus value if it went down this way and Acuna was even half the player that we think he is going to be. The AAV on nsacpi's deal is around 16 million. Acuna would only have to produce 2 WAR per year for that to be worth it.

[Southcack77]

Yeah, that is exactly the goal. To keep Acuna on the team.

And this deal would have a TON of surplus value if it went down this way and Acuna was even half the player that we think he is going to be. The AAV on nsacpi's deal is around 16 million. Acuna would only have to produce 2 WAR per year for that to be worth it.


The vast amount of the surplus you are calculating is coming from the first six years of the deal, which the Braves already control for likely less money than this extension proposes to pay him.

This deal offers to pay him 25.75 AAV over seasons 7-10.

So he'll need to put 3 WAR over the balance of those seasons to earn his contract. While an MVP caliber player would certainly provide a good bit of surplus at that price point, it's entirely possible that is a fair pay or an overpay. We just don't know what happens to Acuna between now and then. He might do something to his legs that makes him fat like Matt Kemp for example.

If he's not giving you tons of surplus over years 7-10, the deal isn't really keeping any windows open. It's just keeping him on the team.

I personally would be inclined to wait and see what he actually turns out to be and then I'd look to see down the road if could maybe pay him more of a market rate for his remaining years of control in exchange for an option year or two at a hefty market rate.

That lets a mid-market payroll team have some flexibility in seeing what its roster is going to look like without taking on a huge risk.

If I can't get that, then I can't. I'm willing to trade him or let him go to free agency.

[NYCBrave]

If you wait then you're gonna end up having to pay Acuna an absurd amount of money to extend him. Nscapi's idea is to assume some of that injury risk for Acuna by paying him more earlier in order to get more significant discounts on years 7, 8, 9, and 10. If it were possible, I think that would be a much better idea for the team than waiting for Acuna to be in year 5 where we have to give him an insanely large contract.

As has been pointed out before, Acuna did not receive a large bonus in international signing. So he might not be the type to pass up being set financially for life in exchange for giving up a couple of years beyond arbitration.

[nsacpi]

So he'll need to put 3 WAR over the balance of those seasons to earn his contract. While an MVP caliber player would certainly provide a good bit of surplus at that price point, it's entirely possible that is a fair pay or an overpay. We just don't know what happens to Acuna between now and then. He might do something to his legs that makes him fat like Matt Kemp for example.

If he's not giving you tons of surplus over years 7-10, the deal isn't really keeping any windows open. It's just keeping him on the team.



The question is how to best spend the monies allocated for years 7-10. It is a long ways off. Lots of uncertainty. Lots of things can happen. But if Acuna agrees to what I'm outlining (and this is a big if) then we have to do it. On an expected outcomes basis it is likely to give us a significantly better return than the alternatives.

[Southcack77]

My point is this off-season might be our one chance to avoid falling into a Harper/Machado type situation. If he has a 6+ WAR season next year, it becomes very difficult.

AA has to try to extent him this off-season. Maybe it won't be possible to get a deal done. But he has to try. This is our best window to extent him on team friendly terms.


I disagree that those are particularly team friendly terms and that it is particularly necessary that he be extended.

the Nationals aren't in a bad place because Harper is hitting free agency. They very well may re-sign him. If not, the world will not end. any problem they have with their roster isn't really going to be centered around not having Harper.

The Orioles' problems similarly do not really begin with not having Manny Machado next season.

I can live with losing a really good player.

If the Braves finances are better or their system keeps pumping out players due to good decisions along the way, then maybe they don't have to lose him. We'll see.

[nsacpi]

As has been pointed out before, Acuna did not receive a large bonus in international signing. So he might not be the type to pass up being set financially for life in exchange for giving up a couple of years beyond arbitration.

Also he had a scary knee injury. And his father has expressed interest. So reason to believe.

[nsacpi]

I disagree that those are particularly team friendly terms and that it is particularly necessary that he be extended.

the Nationals aren't in a bad place because Harper is hitting free agency. They very well may re-sign him. If not, the world will not end. any problem they have with their roster isn't really going to be centered around not having Harper.

The Orioles' problems similarly do not really begin with not having Manny Machado next season.

I can live with losing a really good player.

If the Braves finances are better or their system keeps pumping out players due to good decisions along the way, then maybe they don't have to lose him. We'll see.

Harper has an agent with a philosophy that made it unlikely that he (and Harper) would have agreed to the kind of deal I'm suggesting.

I am ok with losing a really good player too. But I am even more ok with extenting one on team friendly terms if that is possible.

[sturg33]

Curious what y'all think Acuna would get in open market if he were free agent this year?

More or less than Harper?

I'd bet on more

[BeanieAntics]

Harper has an agent with a philosophy that made it unlikely that he (and Harper) would have agreed to the kind of deal I'm suggesting.

I am ok with losing a really good player too. But I am even more ok with extenting one on team friendly terms if that is possible.

Yeah I don't see how this deal would be anything but team friendly. If Acuna is even a consistent 3-4 WAR player, he'd get paid more on the open market than you're deal because he'd be 26-27. A 25 million AAV would be a steal for Acuna during those years. If he eventually walks that is fine, but I'd much rather guarantee keeping him through his age 30 season if at all possible. I'm more than willing to assume any injury risk if it guarantees us keeping him below market rate for 3 more seasons. If you account for inflation, its possible he could easily eclipse a 40 million AAV on the open market.

I just don't see what you're getting at Southcack. This deal would seem like an obvious steal to me.

[Enscheff]

I think all you've done is guaranteed Acuna will be on the team.

For this deal to have much surplus value, Acuna is nearly going to have to set a hall of fame pace.

The value in this deal is getting a few peak FA years of Acuna without paying $40M per year for his decline seasons.

It is so team friendly there is almost no way Acuna signs something like it. Nobody is getting Acuna's age 28-30 seasons without also taking on the risk of his age 38-40 seasons.

[Southcack77]

Yeah I don't see how this deal would be anything but team friendly. If Acuna is even a consistent 3-4 WAR player, he'd get paid more on the open market than you're deal because he'd be 26-27. A 25 million AAV would be a steal for Acuna during those years. If he eventually walks that is fine, but I'd much rather guarantee keeping him through his age 30 season if at all possible. I'm more than willing to assume any injury risk if it guarantees us keeping him below market rate for 3 more seasons. If you account for inflation, its possible he could easily eclipse a 40 million AAV on the open market.

I just don't see what you're getting at Southcack. This deal would seem like an obvious steal to me.

I actually do not believe you are properly factoring in the risk of injury or disappointment.

I think you are just assuming it won’t happen while assuming Acuna is going to be what he’s been for two months for the rest of his career.

If Acuna is a 3 WAR player in years 7-10 he will earn his contract which would not particularly help the Braves.

He’s really got to exceed that significantly to really move the needle.

[thewupk]

The vast amount of the surplus you are calculating is coming from the first six years of the deal, which the Braves already control for likely less money than this extension proposes to pay him.

This deal offers to pay him 25.75 AAV over seasons 7-10.

So he'll need to put 3 WAR over the balance of those seasons to earn his contract. While an MVP caliber player would certainly provide a good bit of surplus at that price point, it's entirely possible that is a fair pay or an overpay. We just don't know what happens to Acuna between now and then. He might do something to his legs that makes him fat like Matt Kemp for example.

If he's not giving you tons of surplus over years 7-10, the deal isn't really keeping any windows open. It's just keeping him on the team.

I personally would be inclined to wait and see what he actually turns out to be and then I'd look to see down the road if could maybe pay him more of a market rate for his remaining years of control in exchange for an option year or two at a hefty market rate.

That lets a mid-market payroll team have some flexibility in seeing what its roster is going to look like without taking on a huge risk.

If I can't get that, then I can't. I'm willing to trade him or let him go to free agency.


That's just false. I will go ahead and say that Acuna is going to be a monster bat in his last 20's. Having him on the team even at ~30 million a year will keep the Braves contention window open. I've been on board with this type of deal for awhile now. The point is you are keeping Acuna through his prime years. Paying near market value for that and then cutting them loose is not really an issue. You run into problems if you are the team that signs a 28-30 year old Acuna to a big contract and pay big money for his 35+ year old seasons. That almost guarantees non competitive seasons like you are seeing with the Tigers and Cabrera.

[zitothebrave]

Offer him a version of Trout's contract. If you include his pre-arb, Trout was signed for an 8/146 deal. So honestly I would say that I would offer him an 8/160 contract. Or going to your 10 year old model, 10/200 may get it done.

[thewupk]

Offer him a version of Trout's contract. If you include his pre-arb, Trout was signed for an 8/146 deal. So honestly I would say that I would offer him an 8/160 contract. Or going to your 10 year old model, 10/200 may get it done.

Of course Trout was already established as the best player in baseball we he signed that deal. I don't think there has been enough inflation since then to justify it.

[BeanieAntics]

I actually do not believe you are properly factoring in the risk of injury or disappointment.

I think you are just assuming it won’t happen while assuming Acuna is going to be what he’s been for two months for the rest of his career.

If Acuna is a 3 WAR player in years 7-10 he will earn his contract which would not particularly help the Braves.

He’s really got to exceed that significantly to really move the needle.

First of all, I think you are over-factoring the injury risk and disappointment risk. It is absolutely a risk, but saving a potential 15 million per year on his prime seasons is more than worth that risk. You are almost assuming it will certainly happen to justify not offering him the aforementioned deal. The second part of this simply isn't true. You don't have to provide surplus value to help a team. It makes the value proposition less appealing, sure. But we would still be getting market value on an impact player. That isn't easy and that is definitely beneficial to the Braves.

Given what we currently know about Acuna's trajectory, its almost unreasonably bearish to assume that he would produce 3 wins per year or less during his prime seasons. He has produced more than that in half a season as a 20 year old. The only reason we set that 3 win number is to illustrate the bar that he would have to meet to make it worthwhile. A 3 win bar for a player of his caliber is not that high at all and I think the bearishness of that number properly bakes in the proposed injury/regression risk.

Look at what the market currently is. Bryce Harper has averaged like 2.5 bWAR over the past 3 seasons and people are talking about giving him a 40 million+ AAV. Factor in inflation and Acuna could be seeing mind blowing numbers in 2025 or whenever.

[zitothebrave]

Of course Trout was already established as the best player in baseball we he signed that deal. I don't think there has been enough inflation since then to justify it.

It's been 3 years since Trout signed. 2 years of solid inflation. Though you're largely correct about being more established, but if we wait we'll have to pay more than that if he's as legit as he has been so far.

[JxnMissFan]

That's just false. I will go ahead and say that Acuna is going to be a monster bat in his last 20's. Having him on the team even at ~30 million a year will keep the Braves contention window open. I've been on board with this type of deal for awhile now. The point is you are keeping Acuna through his prime years. Paying near market value for that and then cutting them loose is not really an issue. You run into problems if you are the team that signs a 28-30 year old Acuna to a big contract and pay big money for his 35+ year old seasons. That almost guarantees non competitive seasons like you are seeing with the Tigers and Cabrera.

Because of the current debt load I wouldn’t expect to see any extensions or signings beyond 3 - 4 years and 80-100 million. Player contracts are debt just like the debt for the brick and mortor at suntrust. I think it will take four years to bring the debt down to a point that mega contracts are even an option for the Braves. Remember how much of the Marlins debt was tied to Stanton.
The strategy to invest in brick and mortor stinks for fans in the short term.

[Southcack77]

That's just false. I will go ahead and say that Acuna is going to be a monster bat in his last 20's. Having him on the team even at ~30 million a year will keep the Braves contention window open. I've been on board with this type of deal for awhile now. The point is you are keeping Acuna through his prime years. Paying near market value for that and then cutting them loose is not really an issue. You run into problems if you are the team that signs a 28-30 year old Acuna to a big contract and pay big money for his 35+ year old seasons. That almost guarantees non competitive seasons like you are seeing with the Tigers and Cabrera.

You can’t create a window by paying players what they are worth as a mid-payroll franchise.

You have to have surplus value elsewhere. The cheap production creates the window.

[thewupk]

You can’t create a window by paying players what they are worth as a mid-payroll franchise.

You have to have surplus value elsewhere. The cheap production creates the window.

Having good/great players creates the window. The idea that the Braves can only be good when Acuna is cheap is dumb. The Braves will have high paid players on it's team and I think Acuna will be the best player of this group and is worth extending.

[Southcack77]

First of all, I think you are over-factoring the injury risk and disappointment risk. It is absolutely a risk, but saving a potential 15 million per year on his prime seasons is more than worth that risk. You are almost assuming it will certainly happen to justify not offering him the aforementioned deal. The second part of this simply isn't true. You don't have to provide surplus value to help a team. It makes the value proposition less appealing, sure. But we would still be getting market value on an impact player. That isn't easy and that is definitely beneficial to the Braves.

Given what we currently know about Acuna's trajectory, its almost unreasonably bearish to assume that he would produce 3 wins per year or less during his prime seasons. He has produced more than that in half a season as a 20 year old. The only reason we set that 3 win number is to illustrate the bar that he would have to meet to make it worthwhile. A 3 win bar for a player of his caliber is not that high at all and I think the bearishness of that number properly bakes in the proposed injury/regression risk.

Look at what the market currently is. Bryce Harper has averaged like 2.5 bWAR over the past 3 seasons and people are talking about giving him a 40 million+ AAV. Factor in inflation and Acuna could be seeing mind blowing numbers in 2025 or whenever.

Acuna is going to get 500 PA. That’s much more than half a year.

I understand that you think Acuna is going to be a perennial MVP candidate.

That’s implied by the fact you think committing to pay him 30 million dollars is a good deal.

You are essentially pencilling him into the hall of fame if you think he’s going to put up ten years of far better than 4 WAR production

I’m not bearish on him, but you aren’t seriously considering the downside, imo.

.

[Southcack77]

Having good/great players creates the window. The idea that the Braves can only be good when Acuna is cheap is dumb. The Braves will have high paid players on it's team and I think Acuna will be the best player of this group and is worth extending.

Don’t be stupid. That’s nothing like what I said.

Paying Acuna fairly for production doesn’t create or eliminate a window.

A fairly compensated Acuna can be a good player on a great team or he can be a good player on a bad team.

You’ve all decided he’s a superstar. I might agree with you. But you aren’t actually considering the risk f his breaking his face and losing his power. Or never being able to fix a hole in his swing. Or of injuring his legs sufficient enough to make him a corner bat that doesn’t stay in great shape. Or of being derailed by constant nagging injuries. Or any of the 1000 things that regularly impact once hall of fame promising careers.

[Southcack77]

Because of the current debt load I wouldn’t expect to see any extensions or signings beyond 3 - 4 years and 80-100 million. Player contracts are debt just like the debt for the brick and mortor at suntrust. I think it will take four years to bring the debt down to a point that mega contracts are even an option for the Braves. Remember how much of the Marlins debt was tied to Stanton.
The strategy to invest in brick and mortor stinks for fans in the short term.

I think none of this is actually a concern.

[Acuña’s Bat Flip]

Give him whatever he wants. I'm sure some people here would chip in.

[BeanieAntics]

Acuna is going to get 500 PA. That’s much more than half a year.

I understand that you think Acuna is going to be a perennial MVP candidate.

That’s implied by the fact you think committing to pay him 30 million dollars is a good deal.

You are essentially pencilling him into the hall of fame if you think he’s going to put up ten years of far better than 4 WAR production

I’m not bearish on him, but you aren’t seriously considering the downside, imo.

.

Acuna had like 3.3 bWAR at the 81 game mark of his career. Half a season. His trajectory puts him squarely on course to exceed that in his prime years. By a lot. But even if he doesn't, I think 3 WAR is on the absolute floor of what you could expect of a prime aged healthy Acuna. Of course there is injury downside. But yeah if the worst realistic non-injury scenario for Acuna is paying him market value, while the upside is him being one of the top 5 players in baseball, you bet your a** I would pay him 25 million a year 6 years from now.

What is your argument here? Is it that we should let him walk no matter what? Is it that we need more data? Because if we spend 3 more seasons getting data on Acuna so we are 100% sure that he is going to be a stud in his prime years, it'll be too late. We'll have to either pay him upwards of 40 million a year (while also guaranteeing him a contract that extends wayyyyy beyond his age 30 season) or watch him walk after arbitration. The downside to both of those are not only likely, but inevitable. We would either being paying an absurd amount of money for a declining 36 year old in 16 years or he'll be a Yankee/Dodger/Red Sock/Cub in 6 years.

[nsacpi]

just to be clear I'm not interested in paying Acuna fairly...that's why the offer I outlined in my opening post only pays him the current going rate for a 3 win player...I'm only interested in extenting our homegrown talent on team friendly terms...I'm not wedded to any particular player...but for reasons I've articulated in this thread I think AA should approach Acuna and his agent about a long-term deal this off-season

[BeanieAntics]

Don’t be stupid. That’s nothing like what I said.

Paying Acuna fairly for production doesn’t create or eliminate a window.

A fairly compensated Acuna can be a good player on a great team or he can be a good player on a bad team.

You’ve all decided he’s a superstar. I might agree with you. But you aren’t actually considering the risk f his breaking his face and losing his power. Or never being able to fix a hole in his swing. Or of injuring his legs sufficient enough to make him a corner bat that doesn’t stay in great shape. Or of being derailed by constant nagging injuries. Or any of the 1000 things that regularly impact once hall of fame promising careers.

No we absolutely are factoring that in and we are saying that the risk is easily worth the reward. There are very few non-injury things that could happen to him that would make me think he'll be worth less than 3 WAR from ages 27-30. Going by your logic, you should never ever give extensions to young players or really any kind of long term contract to anyone. All of the things you just described could happen to anyone. The fact is that its probably more likely to happen to Mike Trout in this time span than it is Acuna, given the age difference. But I'd still be willing to pay him a ton if the Braves could afford such a contract. The Braves probably couldn't. But they could afford 25-30 in a few years and Acuna is exactly the type of player that you'd wanna make that deal for.

[BeanieAntics]

just to be clear I'm not interested in paying Acuna fairly...that's why the offer I outlined in my opening post only pays him the current going rate for a 3 win player...I'm only interested in extenting our homegrown talent on team friendly terms...I'm not wedded to any particular player...but for reasons I've articulated in this thread I think AA should approach Acuna and his agent about a long-term deal this off-season

Yeah my argument is that I think the floor for age 27 Acuna is 3 wins, making 25 million a relatively safe bet. The most likely outcome is that he ends up being underpaid by 10-15 million a year.

[nsacpi]

Yeah my argument is that I think the floor for age 27 Acuna is 3 wins, making 25 million a relatively safe bet. The most likely outcome is that he ends up being underpaid by 10-15 million a year.
yup...and there is both upside and downside to that most likely outcome...that's the case with any contract

[Acuña’s Bat Flip]

He probably wouldn't take our offer.

[nsacpi]

He probably wouldn't take our offer.

that's ok...what's not ok imo is not trying for that kind of deal

[Acuña’s Bat Flip]

that's ok...what's not ok imo is not trying for that kind of deal

I agree with that.

[thewupk]

Don’t be stupid. That’s nothing like what I said.

Paying Acuna fairly for production doesn’t create or eliminate a window.

A fairly compensated Acuna can be a good player on a great team or he can be a good player on a bad team.

You’ve all decided he’s a superstar. I might agree with you. But you aren’t actually considering the risk f his breaking his face and losing his power. Or never being able to fix a hole in his swing. Or of injuring his legs sufficient enough to make him a corner bat that doesn’t stay in great shape. Or of being derailed by constant nagging injuries. Or any of the 1000 things that regularly impact once hall of fame promising careers.

Every contract has risks. Some are worth making over others. Acuna at 30 million in his prime is a much better value than paying market value for a meh outfielder to replace him after he leaves

[Southcack77]

Acuna had like 3.3 bWAR at the 81 game mark of his career. Half a season. His trajectory puts him squarely on course to exceed that in his prime years. By a lot. But even if he doesn't, I think 3 WAR is on the absolute floor of what you could expect of a prime aged healthy Acuna. Of course there is injury downside. But yeah if the worst realistic non-injury scenario for Acuna is paying him market value, while the upside is him being one of the top 5 players in baseball, you bet your a** I would pay him 25 million a year 6 years from now.

What is your argument here? Is it that we should let him walk no matter what? Is it that we need more data? Because if we spend 3 more seasons getting data on Acuna so we are 100% sure that he is going to be a stud in his prime years, it'll be too late. We'll have to either pay him upwards of 40 million a year (while also guaranteeing him a contract that extends wayyyyy beyond his age 30 season) or watch him walk after arbitration. The downside to both of those are not only likely, but inevitable. We would either being paying an absurd amount of money for a declining 36 year old in 16 years or he'll be a Yankee/Dodger/Red Sock/Cub in 6 years.

I’ve already said what I’d do. You can scroll back if you want.

I don’t particularly care if he wears another uniform if it doesn’t make sense to keep him.

That’s life. I’m beyond having player heroes at this point. Sometimes wish I wasn’t.

[Acuña’s Bat Flip]

I think the only risk here is injury but that could be said for any player.

[Enscheff]

Southcrack is the only one missing the point here. Everyone seems to have a general grasp of the situation facing the Braves.

Every contract extension is a risk, and the upside is a cost controlled excellent player.

Guaranteeing Acuna 6/60 is the price the Braves will have to pay to control his first couple FA years without guaranteeing his decline years. That’s the whole point. That’s where the bulk of the surplus value lies.

This is very basic player valuation. I’m not sure what the issue is other than him being his usual pointlessly contrarian self.

[Southcack77]

No we absolutely are factoring that in and we are saying that the risk is easily worth the reward. There are very few non-injury things that could happen to him that would make me think he'll be worth less than 3 WAR from ages 27-30. Going by your logic, you should never ever give extensions to young players or really any kind of long term contract to anyone. All of the things you just described could happen to anyone. The fact is that its probably more likely to happen to Mike Trout in this time span than it is Acuna, given the age difference. But I'd still be willing to pay him a ton if the Braves could afford such a contract. The Braves probably couldn't. But they could afford 25-30 in a few years and Acuna is exactly the type of player that you'd wanna make that deal for.

No, I don't think 10 year guaranteed contracts are particularly good ideas in general.

[Southcack77]

Southcrack is the only one missing the point here. Everyone seems to have a general grasp of the situation facing the Braves.

Every contract extension is a risk, and the upside is a cost controlled excellent player.

Guaranteeing Acuna 6/60 is the price the Braves will have to pay to control his first couple FA years without guaranteeing his decline years. That’s the whole point. That’s where the bulk of the surplus value lies.

This is very basic player valuation. I’m not sure what the issue is other than him being his usual pointlessly contrarian self.

I'm not missing any point.

I don't think a mid-market team should be guaranteeing money ten years in the future for a first year player when it already controls six of those years.

I understand that everyone here has looked at his first season and mentally pencilled him into the Hall of Fame. That's how you are all valuing him.

Personally, I think it is very possible. It's been a hell of a start.

I wouldn't guarantee 10 years to get four years at a 25 AAV. I don't think it is necessary.

It's a difference of opinion. Nothing contrary about it.

[nsacpi]

No, I don't think 10 year guaranteed contracts are particularly good ideas in general.

in general no...but in specifics there might be circumstances where the answer is yes...when the player is very young...if you are able to buy out some free agent years on club friendly terms

[Southcack77]

in general no...but in specifics there might be circumstances where the answer is yes...when the player is very young...if you are able to buy out some free agent years on club friendly terms

Make the last two years options, and it looks better to me. But I would still wait.

[smootness]

I'm not missing any point.

I don't think a mid-market team should be guaranteeing money ten years in the future for a first year player when it already controls six of those years.

I understand that everyone here has looked at his first season and mentally pencilled him into the Hall of Fame. That's how you are all valuing him.

Personally, I think it is very possible. It's been a hell of a start.

I wouldn't guarantee 10 years to get four years at a 25 AAV. I don't think it is necessary.

It's a difference of opinion. Nothing contrary about it.

This is actually exactly what a mid-market team should be doing when they get a player like this. It increases his value.

[Super]

This is actually exactly what a mid-market team should be doing when they get a player like this. It increases his value.

yeah, i'm confused. in order to get studs in their prime a mid-market team prob has sign them to this kind of deal.

[Southcack77]

This is actually exactly what a mid-market team should be doing when they get a player like this. It increases his value.


I am crystal clear that everyone advocating for extending him at big money is 100% sure he's an All Star or better player with the Hall of Fame as a legitimate possibility.

And I absolutely agree with that you that if that is true then the proposed deal would work out great if he stayed healthy.

And if it turned out that way, he would be tradeable and have arguably more value.

that's hardly the point of why I wouldn't do this now, but I'm tired of the thing already. You guys are in love and the heart what it wants and the heart wants Acuna to die a Brave.

No point in repeating myself any more, so I will make it up to you by trying to resign myself to reporting on the Braves pending playoff appearance, the amazingness Braves stats for various hand-picked samples, and the relative financial health of the Braves as opposed to the quite frankly bizarre internet rumors about their crushing debt.

[nsacpi]

I am crystal clear that everyone advocating for extending him at big money is 100% sure he's an All Star or better player with the Hall of Fame as a legitimate possibility.



we all know there is no such thing as a 100% sure thing...the argument for the kind of extension i proposed does not rest on that

[Jaw]

An extension seems like a no lose situation to me. If he progresses it is a huge win for Atlanta and keeps the competitive window open a bit longer. If he busts the competitive window closes immediately anyway and his payroll doesn't really matter.

[Coredor]

In 2027 our TV deal is up. If we have a period of success it’s possible that by the end of a deal like that our finances would be better.

[nsacpi]

In 2027 our TV deal is up. If we have a period of success it’s possible that by the end of a deal like that our finances would be better.

Thanks for the reminder. The TV deal is a big competitive disadvantage. The amazing thing is we have a chance to be a competitive team over the next ten years even with the albatross of a bad TV deal.

[BeanieAntics]

I am crystal clear that everyone advocating for extending him at big money is 100% sure he's an All Star or better player with the Hall of Fame as a legitimate possibility.

And I absolutely agree with that you that if that is true then the proposed deal would work out great if he stayed healthy.

And if it turned out that way, he would be tradeable and have arguably more value.

that's hardly the point of why I wouldn't do this now, but I'm tired of the thing already. You guys are in love and the heart what it wants and the heart wants Acuna to die a Brave.

No point in repeating myself any more, so I will make it up to you by trying to resign myself to reporting on the Braves pending playoff appearance, the amazingness Braves stats for various hand-picked samples, and the relative financial health of the Braves as opposed to the quite frankly bizarre internet rumors about their crushing debt.

You are just arguing a straw man at this point because you have dug in to this contrarian point. Nobody here is saying that a contract extension is risk free. It carries just a much risk as any other contract extension. But what everyone is saying is that the potential reward for such a contract far outweighs the potential downside.

Even if I was 50% sure that Acuna would be an All Star level player, 30% that he would be a 3 win player, and 20% that he'd have a catastrophic injury or regress horribly, I'd still do the deal that nsacpi proposed. Because 80% of the time we would be getting at least market value for a 3 win player and 50% of the time we would be getting ridiculously good value on that player.

[smootness]

I am crystal clear that everyone advocating for extending him at big money is 100% sure he's an All Star or better player with the Hall of Fame as a legitimate possibility.

And I absolutely agree with that you that if that is true then the proposed deal would work out great if he stayed healthy.

And if it turned out that way, he would be tradeable and have arguably more value.

that's hardly the point of why I wouldn't do this now, but I'm tired of the thing already. You guys are in love and the heart what it wants and the heart wants Acuna to die a Brave.

No point in repeating myself any more, so I will make it up to you by trying to resign myself to reporting on the Braves pending playoff appearance, the amazingness Braves stats for various hand-picked samples, and the relative financial health of the Braves as opposed to the quite frankly bizarre internet rumors about their crushing debt.

You're arguing that we're blinded by adoration and that this is not wise financially, but I'm telling you it actually is wise for a team in the Braves' position.

Of course there's risk. But he already is an All-Star level player at 20. So I don't really see how there's a whole lot more risk than signing any player to any long-term deal. And while waiting could reduce some of that risk, it also increases the amount that must be paid. Which, as you know, is difficult for a mid-market team.

So if a mid-market team wants a player like Acuna through much or even all of his prime at the cheapest possible value, you have to extend him now.

[Southcack77]

You're arguing that we're blinded by adoration and that this is not wise financially, but I'm telling you it actually is wise for a team in the Braves' position.

Of course there's risk. But he already is an All-Star level player at 20. So I don't really see how there's a whole lot more risk than signing any player to any long-term deal. And while waiting could reduce some of that risk, it also increases the amount that must be paid. Which, as you know, is difficult for a mid-market team.

So if a mid-market team wants a player like Acuna through much or even all of his prime at the cheapest possible value, you have to extend him now.




Maybe I'm colder, maybe I'm unreasonably risk averse. Maybe I'm distrustful of human nature or fate's intentions towards the Braves.

But, I wouldn't do an extension now unless it was on unbelievably good terms. I personally do not think the deal the OP suggested qualifies.

I'm prepared to buy future years from him at more expensive rates if it appears warranted down the road. Or let him walk. Or cash him for prospects. I can live with the risk of losing him seven years from now and with the feeling that you let a bargain get past you.

[nsacpi]

Its possible that the Braves can extent Acuna on better terms that I outlined. We can all hope. But I think the terms I outlined are pretty team friendly.

[Jaw]

I have wondered how the new free agency landscape will affect extensions for young players after last offseason. That big guaranteed payday at the end of team control doesn't look as certain as it did a couple of years ago, especially if you are going to be 30 or older when you get there. Every young star and their agent have new calculations to make. I would think a 24 year old rookie would be more likely now to take guaranteed money. For a 20 year old like Acuna it may make even more sense gamble on free agency.

[smootness]

Maybe I'm colder, maybe I'm unreasonably risk averse. Maybe I'm distrustful of human nature or fate's intentions towards the Braves.

But, I wouldn't do an extension now unless it was on unbelievably good terms. I personally do not think the deal the OP suggested qualifies.

I'm prepared to buy future years from him at more expensive rates if it appears warranted down the road. Or let him walk. Or cash him for prospects. I can live with the risk of losing him seven years from now and with the feeling that you let a bargain get past you.

This is all fine. We can disagree on which side of the debate we'd fall on. But saying it isn't wise financially (or at least wouldn't be a legitimate move) for a team in a mid-market is just wrong.

[NYCBrave]

A factor nobody is talking about is we don't know his family situation. The allure of having the money immediately to take care of his family might be more valuable than waiting a few years until arbitration kicks in.

[Freshmaker]

Maybe I'm colder, maybe I'm unreasonably risk averse. Maybe I'm distrustful of human nature or fate's intentions towards the Braves.

But, I wouldn't do an extension now unless it was on unbelievably good terms. I personally do not think the deal the OP suggested qualifies.

I'm prepared to buy future years from him at more expensive rates if it appears warranted down the road. Or let him walk. Or cash him for prospects. I can live with the risk of losing him seven years from now and with the feeling that you let a bargain get past you.

I'm personally all for an extension. I certainly get your hesitation, but this is much closer to the Angels signing Trout than the Angels signing Pujols

[nsacpi]

bump in light of Trout

[Heyward]

Trout signed a 6 year/144 mil extension still in arb.

6 year/120 with an option to buy a FA year out?

[Super]

Trout signed a 6 year/144 mil extension still in arb.

6 year/120 with an option to buy a FA year out?

how many years of control does the team currently still have?

[sturg33]

how many years of control does the team currently still have?

6

[Super]

6

so a 6-year extension doesn't do much.
i'd aim for 8-10

[cajunrevenge]

I would offer Acuna 9 years 120 million split up as 10 million a year for his first 3 years and 15 million a year for the last 6. Pretty sure that would be a record contract for a player with his service time by a mile so I think a good offer. I dont care how great Acuna is there is always risk. Lets not forget they Heywood debacle. We were ready to give him a blank check at this point in his career. I know 120 million is nothing compared to a huge FA contract but a lot can happen between now and then. Maybe I should offer 20 million a year in his last 3 years, the way salaries are going thats going to be what 15 million is now by that point.

[Slippyjms]

I’d start at 10/160 for Acuña and go from there. Would be willing to go to 10/200.

[Enscheff]

Actual numbers with respect to a potential Acuna extension:


Acuna is extremely unlikely to sign an extension taking him through his age 30 season, dropping him onto the FA market ahead of his age 31 season. His agent knows his skills are going to be richly rewarded in arbitration, so there is little reason to give the Braves a huge discount.

The Braves already control Acuna's age 21-26 seasons, and assuming the star/superstar path he is likely to take, the upper limit of his cost will be roughly...

2019 (21): $0.75M (pre-arb 2, similar to Bryant)
2020 (22): $1M (pre-arb 3, similar to Bryant)
2021 (23): $10M (arb 1, will flirt with Bryant's 1st year arb record)
2022 (24): $15M (arb 2)
2023 (25): $19M (arb 3)
2024 (26): $23M (arb 4, flirting with Donaldson's 4th year arb record)

That puts the upper bound of Acuna's earnings going year to year at around 6/70. He will then be in line to hit the open market ahead of his age 27 season poised to sign the largest contract in MLB history, and certainly larger than $400M, while making upwards of $40M per season.

So the Braves need to guarantee less than 6/70, while pushing a chunk of the money forward into his pre-arb seasons, and secure 1-2 options at around $30M to make sense.

Your proposed $2M/$4M/$10M/$13M/$16M/$19M comes out to 6/64, and is roughly in the ballpark, and may actually be a bit steep.

The 4/103 tacked onto the end is not realistic at all. Acuna is not going to give up his peak earning years that will see him earning $40M per year.

The most likely extension is something along the lines of 6/60 for his control years, followed by 1-2 options at $30M+. That allows the Braves to save ~$10M per year on a couple FA years, and still allows Acuna to hit the FA market in time for a record setting deal.

The most likely outcome is he does what all recent elite young players are doing and goes year to year so he can hit FA at the youngest age possible. The Braves knew this, which is why they correctly played the service time game with him.

A realistic extension is likely 7/90 (6 control years plus 1 FA year at $30M) to 8/120 (2 FA years at $30M), perhaps with 1-2 options for $30M+ tacked on the end. Acuna will still want to hit FA before he turns 30. If some of the extra payroll space from this year is used to move part of that contract into 2019/2020, I would be in favor of that tactic.

[nsacpi]

i'd try to go long

opening offer 10 years 170-180M

willing to go up to 200M

he and his agent might prefer something shorter, which we should be willing to explore as well

[Super]

Actual numbers with respect to a potential Acuna extension:



A realistic extension is likely 7/90 (6 control years plus 1 FA year at $30M) to 8/120 (2 FA years at $30M), perhaps with 1-2 options for $30M+ tacked on the end. Acuna will still want to hit FA before he turns 30.

way in for 8/120

[DirkPiggler]

Actual numbers with respect to a potential Acuna extension:



A realistic extension is likely 7/90 (6 control years plus 1 FA year at $30M) to 8/120 (2 FA years at $30M), perhaps with 1-2 options for $30M+ tacked on the end.

I'd do that today if Acuña would sign it. Particularly if he would agree to the two FA years being team options.

[Super]

i'd try to go long

opening offer 10 years 170-180M

willing to go up to 200M

he and his agent might prefer something shorter, which we should be willing to explore as well

i would also prefer more. you're prob looking at $30M per year, like scheff has, for post-arb numbers.
so if 8/120 is a projection, 9/150 or 10/180. do 10/200 and call it a day (tho as also noted, this is particularly likely).

[Enscheff]

i'd try to go long

opening offer 10 years 170-180M

willing to go up to 200M

he and his agent might prefer something shorter, which we should be willing to explore as well

The last thing Acuna's agent wants to do after seeing how badly players do in the FA market at age 30+ is hit the FA market in this 30s.

Securing a huge payday through his arb years in exchange for 1-2 discounted FA years is the most a competent agent should be willing to give up.

The good news is the recent strife in the FA market may have made players a little more likely to take these discounted extensions. Players have been trending towards going year to year the last 4-5 years, but the last year or so has seen their appetite for risk change a little. Extending Acuna is now more likely than it was less than a year ago.

[BeanieAntics]

I think we should prioritize extending Acuna through his age 28 season. I agree with Scheff that its unlikely we'd get longer than that. But I think that we could definitely buy out 1-2 of his free agent years in exchange for guaranteeing a little more money in his first 6 years. But its possible that Acuna would rather bet on himself.

[Heyward]

I think the longest we can get if he'd sign is through his age 28 season. Doubt he signs a deal that would put him at his 30's hitting FA. Best case is getting 1 or 2 FA years bought out.

Still wouldnt be surprised if he pulls a Harper/Machado and just takes it year by year.

[Southcack77]

Acuna's existing deal is about as good a bargain as you could ask for.

I'd be content to ride it for a bit longer while we confirmed what he is or isn't.

[BeanieAntics]

Acuna's existing deal is about as good a bargain as you could ask for.

I'd be content to ride it for a bit longer while we confirmed what he is or isn't.

I think this approach would be overly risk averse. Every year that he succeeds and every year of service time he eats up, the price gets higher and eventually you get to a point where it doesn't make sense for him to accept an extension.

For a player of Acuna's age, he is as much of a sure thing as you'll ever see. I just don't think its necessary to take a wait and see approach if the opportunity to lock him in for 7-8 years presents itself. Its easily worth the risk of guaranteeing those early dollars in my mind.

The 8/120 suggestion makes a whole lot of sense for both parties and I'd do that deal in a heartbeat.

[Heyward]

Yeah what Beanie said. If it could happen, you do it now. If Acuna wins the MVP this year, it's only gonna cost that much more to even try to extend him.

[The Chosen One]

Didn't Freeman sign 7 /114? 8 yr 120 would be fantastic.

[Hudson2]

8 years would be my offer to. Acuna may wanna sign a deal especially if we can lock up Albies for something cheap. Acuna didn’t get a big signing bonus at all so waving 150 million in his face at his age may make him go ahead and do it. I totally agree that you do it sooner than later.

[Enscheff]

Didn't Freeman sign 7 /114? 8 yr 120 would be fantastic.

Freeman's deal was 8/135. It bought out his 3 arb seasons plus 5 FA years. Freeman's situation is nothing like trying to extend Acuna right now.

If they are going to extend Acuna it has to happen before he gets $10M in his first arb season. The Braves lose a lot of leverage the closer he gets to becoming a millionaire.

Is now the right time to hand a kid $100M+ after fewer than 500 MLB PAs?

Hard to judge that risk, but it's the only way the Braves can keep him more than 6 years if he turns into a perennial MVP candidate like he appears to be.

[The Chosen One]

Freeman's deal was 8/135. It bought out his 3 arb seasons plus 5 FA years. Freeman's situation is nothing like trying to extend Acuna right now.

If they are going to extend Acuna it has to happen before he gets $10M in his first arb season. The Braves lose a lot of leverage the closer he gets to becoming a millionaire.

Is now the right time to hand a kid $100M+ after fewer than 500 MLB PAs?

Hard to judge that risk, but it's the only way the Braves can keep him more than 6 years if he turns into a perennial MVP candidate like he appears to be.

My bad, I just remember it being like 14-15 mill per that's why I said 114. lol.

[Horsehide Harry]

What would you think about offering Acuna a 10 year $175M contract extension tomorrow?

I know the club control issue and arbitration issue and risk associated with him not being who we think he will be, BUT:

If he gets close to FA and he's anywhere near as good as he is now, then the Braves won't be able to afford re-signing him.

If he continues on the trajectory he's on now he's probably looking at (2)$0.6M, (3)$2.5M, (4)$5M, (5) $10M, (6)$20M through arbitration, so assuming those numbers are close, you overpay by about $49.5M

Let's assume the next 5 years he averages $30M per year (which seems a good bet given his expected ability and the current market) or $150M, you underpay by $72.5M

But you also keep him in Atlanta (which isn't happening without an extension), keep him through and a bit past his prime (31), and locks in a relatively low salary for a player of his skills (you hope) for 5 years.

In other words, assuming performance and freedom from catastrophic injury, he's a bargain the last five years of his contract, even while overpaying on the front side.

I realize that waiting another year, maybe two, is safer, but waiting brings its own risk. Does the AAV have to go up? Is it still 10 years, taking you through age 33? Is he in arbitration and willing to bet on himself cruising into a true FA?

Considering the concept of ramp up to being competitive, which is what AA appears to be doing, it might make sense to gamble.

[MadduxFanII]

I saw the thread title and the poster and just assumed this was going to be 2,000 words on why the Braves needed to trade Acuna ASAP.

[Horsehide Harry]

I saw the thread title and the poster and just assumed this was going to be 2,000 words on why the Braves needed to trade Acuna ASAP.

I can do that if you wish. And you must, since you felt the need to add your thoughts.

[Russ2dollas]

Just get it done. Tack on some crazy option years.
Team option starting at 30 and going up 5 million every year. Team option him up to 60 million a year.

Present value of money is something. Risk of injury is something. Performance is a risk.

I’d think hard about 350 for 13. Beat Harper and go all in.

[Heyward]

More baselines.

Bregman just got 6 years, 100 million, covers 2 FA years.

[Enscheff]

We already discussed an Acuna extension in another thread....titled “Extenting Acuna”.

It’s literally 4 posts below this and was commented on today.

[Southcack77]

More baselines.

Bregman just got 6 years, 100 million, covers 2 FA years.

Bergman entering last pre arb season gives up 2 years at 17m a pop.

[nsacpi]

What would you think about offering Acuna a 10 year $175M contract extension tomorrow?

I know the club control issue and arbitration issue and risk associated with him not being who we think he will be, BUT:

If he gets close to FA and he's anywhere near as good as he is now, then the Braves won't be able to afford re-signing him.

If he continues on the trajectory he's on now he's probably looking at (2)$0.6M, (3)$2.5M, (4)$5M, (5) $10M, (6)$20M through arbitration, so assuming those numbers are close, you overpay by about $49.5M

Let's assume the next 5 years he averages $30M per year (which seems a good bet given his expected ability and the current market) or $150M, you underpay by $72.5M

But you also keep him in Atlanta (which isn't happening without an extension), keep him through and a bit past his prime (31), and locks in a relatively low salary for a player of his skills (you hope) for 5 years.

In other words, assuming performance and freedom from catastrophic injury, he's a bargain the last five years of his contract, even while overpaying on the front side.

I realize that waiting another year, maybe two, is safer, but waiting brings its own risk. Does the AAV have to go up? Is it still 10 years, taking you through age 33? Is he in arbitration and willing to bet on himself cruising into a true FA?

Considering the concept of ramp up to being competitive, which is what AA appears to be doing, it might make sense to gamble.

sounds like a plan stan

[nsacpi]

We already discussed an Acuna extension in another thread....titled “Extenting Acuna”.

It’s literally 4 posts below this and was commented on today.

let a thousand extensions bloom

[Horsehide Harry]

We already discussed an Acuna extension in another thread....titled “Extenting Acuna”.

It’s literally 4 posts below this and was commented on today.

Yeah, well glad they merged in.

I've gotten to where I don't pay as much attention to the threads as I once did...

[Enscheff]

Bergman entering last pre arb season gives up 2 years at 17m a pop.

Not sure where you are seeing this. Bregman's contract is a 5/100 extension over his 3 arb seasons plus 2 FA seasons, and he is still getting something like $600k in 2019.

It probably breaks down as something like $40M-$45M for his 3 arb years and $55M-$60M for his 2 FA years.

This contract also frames Acuna's price pretty well for those throwing around silly numbers like $200M+ for an extension. If Bregman was 5/100, Acuna is probably something fairly similar.

[Runnin]

Any extension should be full of generous monetary incentives. It will not be good if he becomes one of the best players in the league and is not getting paid his worth because he signed a contract too early.

[BeanieAntics]

I would be willing to break records in order to buy out age 27-28 Acuna, but some of these offers are ridiculous. The most I could see us offering is like 8/150, and that is in the most ridiculous of circumstances. I'd probably be willing to do it to, but I have to admit that there may be a hint a irrationality in that. Once you get up into those numbers the risk/reward equation begins to change a bit. My willingness to do it relies heavily on my belief that Acuna has "best player in baseball" upside with a floor of a consistent all star. If I were a rational actor I'd have to scale that back a bit.

[Southcack77]

Not sure where you are seeing this. Bregman's contract is a 5/100 extension over his 3 arb seasons plus 2 FA seasons, and he is still getting something like $600k in 2019.

It probably breaks down as something like $40M-$45M for his 3 arb years and $55M-$60M for his 2 FA years.

This contract also frames Acuna's price pretty well for those throwing around silly numbers like $200M+ for an extension. If Bregman was 5/100, Acuna is probably something fairly similar.

Looks like I mixed up consecutive tweets, perhaps. The other guy in Houston got 17.5 for extra year.

[Heyward]

Yeah it's 5/100, and this year pre-arb, so 3 arb years, and 2 FA years at 20 mil a year.

[thewupk]

Yeah it's 5/100, and this year pre-arb, so 3 arb years, and 2 FA years at 20 mil a year.

Yeah. It comes with a 10 mil signing bonus too. Smart way to get Bregman some cash now while saving the luxury tax hit until next season.

[Enscheff]

Some guy at TC went through this thread and converted it into an article, then slapped his name on it:

https://www.talkingchop.com/2019/3/20/18274263/ronald-acuna-extension-atlanta-braves

His ultimate conclusion:

6 years, $65 million which includes a $5 million signing bonus and two team options at $25 million each that would escalate to $30 million if he wins an MVP during the contract.

Seems reasonable considering we laid out the entire logic path for him step by step. Specifically here:

http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8641&page=5&p=572028&viewfull=1#post572028

[Southcack77]

Some guy at TC went through this thread and converted it into an article, then slapped his name on it:

https://www.talkingchop.com/2019/3/20/18274263/ronald-acuna-extension-atlanta-braves

His ultimate conclusion:

6 years, $65 million which includes a $5 million signing bonus and two team options at $25 million each that would escalate to $30 million if he wins an MVP during the contract.

Seems reasonable considering we laid out the entire logic path for him step by step. Specifically here:

http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8641&page=5&p=572028&viewfull=1#post572028



That number is 6/65 guaranteed with the potential of reaching 8/125 with team options? I like buying team options a lot better than making flat guarantees.

How would that likely break down yearly?

[Enscheff]

That number is 6/65 guaranteed with the potential of reaching 8/125 with team options? I like buying team options a lot better than making flat guarantees.

How would that likely break down yearly?

Probably right along the lines of what I posted for his arb salaries with $5M moved up front via the signing bonus. The options will also have buyouts that bring the guarantee over $65M.

I'd be surprised if Acuna settles for 2 option years (I think 1 will have to be guaranteed), but something like this:

2019 (21): $6M (pre-arb 2, includes $5M signing bonus)
2020 (22): $3M (pre-arb 3)
2021 (23): $8M (arb 1)
2022 (24): $12M (arb 2)
2023 (25): $16M (arb 3)
2024 (26): $20M (arb 4)
2025 (27): $25M-$30M option, $1M-$5M buyout
2026 (28): $25M-$30M option, $1M-$5M buyout

I would be strongly in favor of using present day "flexibility" to lock up control over 1-2 of Acuna's FA years.

[Southcack77]

Probably right along the lines of what I posted for his arb salaries with $5M moved up front via the signing bonus. The options will also have buyouts that bring the guarantee over $65M.

I'd be surprised if Acuna settles for 2 option years (I think 1 will have to be guaranteed), but something like this:

2019 (21): $6M (pre-arb 2, includes $5M signing bonus)
2020 (22): $3M (pre-arb 3)
2021 (23): $8M (arb 1)
2022 (24): $12M (arb 2)
2023 (25): $16M (arb 3)
2024 (26): $20M (arb 4)
2025 (27): $25M-$30M option, $1M-$5M buyout
2026 (28): $25M-$30M option, $1M-$5M buyout

I would be strongly in favor of using present day "flexibility" to lock up control over 1-2 of Acuna's FA years.


I would do that for sure. Would be a very good use of the flexibility.

I'd probably be willing to guarantee those two free agent years at 25m with the MVP escalator, but I'd be less thrilled. Not sure I'd guarantee them at 30m flat.

[Enscheff]

I would do that for sure. Would be a very good use of the flexibility.

I'd probably be willing to guarantee those two free agent years at 25m with the MVP escalator, but I'd be less thrilled. Not sure I'd guarantee them at 30m flat.

Yeah, that's where the negotiating is going to happen.

I think 6/60-6/70 for the control years is pretty well established.

The part left to settle is the FA years, and how many. The Braves will obviously want as many options as possible, while Acuna will want as much guaranteed as possible while still hitting the FA market at a young age.

Maybe they settle in the middle where the 1st FA year is guaranteed at $25M with an escalator, and the 2nd is a $30M option with $5M buyout.

Either way, this is something that needs to happen if Acuna is at all receptive. It's entirely possible he may decide to go year to year and push for record setting arb numbers, and then hit FA as the next Harper/Machado in line for $400M.

[Enscheff]

Bregman is guaranteed $28.5M in each of the 2 FA seasons his new extension covers.

This helps further frame an Acuna extension, and is why I don't think he will settle for $25M options at the end of any extension he signs.

[nsacpi]

Bregman is guaranteed $28.5M in each of the 2 FA seasons his new extension covers.

This helps further frame an Acuna extension, and is why I don't think he will settle for $25M options at the end of any extension he signs.

Should he get more than Bregman, who is coming off a 7.6 WAR season?

[thewupk]

Bregman is guaranteed $28.5M in each of the 2 FA seasons his new extension covers.

This helps further frame an Acuna extension, and is why I don't think he will settle for $25M options at the end of any extension he signs.

The 43 million during his arby years seems a little light though.

[Enscheff]

Should he get more than Bregman, who is coming off a 7.6 WAR season?

Younger than Bregman. Will likely make more than Bregman in arbitration. We probably just saw Bregman's career year.

Bregman was guaranteed $28.5M for each of 2 FA seasons. Acuna taking $25M options is much less value.

[Enscheff]

The 43 million during his arby years seems a little light though.

Not really. Acuna was going to hit arb 4 times to reach that $60M+ figure. Bregman was only going to hit arb 3 times, and could likely expect something like 10, 15, 20 for a total of ~$45M.

Further, Acuna is going to hit his first arb hearing with an NL ROY award, and counting stats that will likely be higher than what Bregman would likely have brought to the table. Those things are highly valued in arb hearings.

These contracts are just as much about projecting arbitration earnings as they are about valuing FA years.

[thewupk]

Not really. Acuna was going to hit arb 4 times to reach that $60M+ figure. Bregman was only going to hit arb 3 times, and could likely expect something like 10, 15, 20 for a total of ~$45M.

Further, Acuna is going to hit his first arb hearing with an NL ROY award, and counting stats that will likely be higher than what Bregman would likely have brought to the table. Those things are highly valued in arb hearings.

These contracts are just as much about projecting arbitration earnings as they are about valuing FA years.

Well **** total brain fart there.

Hopefully the Braves have approached or are approaching him about a deal.

[nsacpi]

Reasons to do it and do it this off-season:

1) On the right terms, it extents the team's competitive window beyond the six years we have him under control.

2) His skill set is going to be well rewarded by arbitration.

3) The arbitration process is also likely to reward him for high finishes in MVP voting.

4) Getting him signed on the right terms sends a signal to the other core players and will probably also make it easier to hold on to them on the team friendly terms.

5) There is a serious risk that waiting will just drive up the price. So do it this off-season if at all possible.

So what are the right terms. I am a Braves fan first and foremost and would like to see the terms be as team friendly as is realistically possible. With that in mind I would like to see a ten-year deal along these lines:

Year 1: 2M
Year 2: 4M
Year 3: 10M
Year 4: 13M
Year 5: 16M
Year 6: 19M
Year 7: 22M
Year 8: 24M
Year 9: 27M
Year 10: 30M

Worth a bump. I was hoping for the above 165M/10 years. AA got him to sign for 124M/10 years. Amazin. Easily the best (in terms of being team friendly) of the extensions we've seen lately.

[Enscheff]

Worth a bump. I was hoping for the above 165M/10 years. AA got him to sign for 124M/10 years. Amazin. Easily the best (in terms of being team friendly) of the extensions we've seen lately.

The 8/100 portion was pretty much expected, and is almost exactly what happened. I detailed that several times in this thread.

The crazy portion is the 2 option years at $17M each. I have no idea why Acuna agreed to that, but those option years push this from good to great for the Braves.

[BeanieAntics]

The 8/100 portion was pretty much expected, and is almost exactly what happened. I detailed that several times in this thread.

The crazy portion is the 2 option years at $17M each. I have no idea why Acuna agreed to that, but those option years push this from good to great for the Braves.

Its almost beyond belief how good those extra two years are for the Braves in my opinion. It might be the best extension I've ever seen for a team, considering what we are expecting of Acuna. If he is a 5 win player over those 10 years, we're talking about a obscene amount of surplus value.

[Heyward]

I think the longest we can get if he'd sign is through his age 28 season. Doubt he signs a deal that would put him at his 30's hitting FA. Best case is getting 1 or 2 FA years bought out.

Still wouldnt be surprised if he pulls a Harper/Machado and just takes it year by year.

Happy, VERY happy to be wrong. Free agency is gonna be close to done now, every top player is signing an extension.

I was hoping for 6 years and 2 FA years bought out. 8 years with 2 options is insane.

[Enscheff]

Happy, VERY happy to be wrong. Free agency is gonna be close to done now, every top player is signing an extension.

I was hoping for 6 years and 2 FA years bought out. 8 years with 2 options is insane.

What's even more insane is the options are only $17M each. Something terribly unfortunate will have to happen for the Braves to not pick up a $17M option on Acuna in his late 20s when the buyout is already $10M.

The first 8 years are reasonable extension terms, it's the 2 option years he gave up just to push the guarantee over $100M that has knowledgeable folks scratching their heads.

This extension has quite possibly propped the Braves window of contention open for the next 10 years if they can build around a 4-5 win player making peanuts for the next decade.

[UNCBlue012]

What's even more insane is the options are only $17M each. Something terribly unfortunate will have to happen for the Braves to not pick up a $17M option on Acuna in his late 20s when the buyout is already $10M.

The first 8 years are reasonable extension terms, it's the 2 option years he gave up just to push the guarantee over $100M that has knowledgeable folks scratching their heads.

This extension has quite possibly propped the Braves window of contention open for the next 10 years if they can build around a 4-5 win player making peanuts for the next decade.

10-year contention window? 8================D ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~

[Enscheff]

Not only that, but the extremely cheap option years at the end of the deal give the Braves a lot of leverage to extend him again into his early 30s again at bargain rates.

When Acuna looks around and sees other players of his caliber making $30M+ per year while he’s making $17M, he may sign away some of his early decline years in order to renegotiate those option years.