Infield Splits

[nsacpi]

Career splits for our infielders:

Camargo .919 OPS against lefties, .747 against righties
Swanson .725 and .673
Albies .908 and .718

It is obvious that the team would benefit from an infielder who could spell these guys against right handed pitching. I realize some of the splits data for 2018 looked different. But single season splits are often misleading. You want to go with the bigger samples for predictive purposes.

I offer for the board's consideration the following candidates:

Marwin Gonzalez .730 against lefties, .740 against righties
Asdrubal Cabrera .759 and .751
Derek Dietrich .672 and .777
Yangervis Solarte .693 and .742
Jake Lamb .557 and .838
Neil Walker .674 and .795
Mike Moustakas .693 and .755

With bullpens getting longer, benches are getting shorter. Which puts efficient bench construction at a premium. It is clear that an infielder who hits RHP well would be a very efficient complement to the guys we currently have. Ideally it would be someone who can play all over the diamond. But given that Camargo and Albies can be moved around, that isn't essential. The essential part is investing well in terms of finding a solid hitter from the left side this off-season.

[NYCBrave]

Slightly unrelated, but the Dodgers went 9 righties last night against a LHP. That included benching Muncy, who doesn't even seem to have much of a platoon split.

What it comes back to is, at what point so you make a decision to let kids like Albies and Comargo develop from both sides, or so you make the decision early that they won't improve, and will need to be spelled.

[nsacpi]

What it comes back to is, at what point so you make a decision to let kids like Albies and Comargo develop from both sides, or so you make the decision early that they won't improve, and will need to be spelled.

One does not exclude the other. What I'm advocating is spelling one of our three infielders on days a RHP is going. That would still leave all of them with plenty of ABs against RHP.

[Enscheff]

All the options we talked about at the deadline should still be options this off season if Riley is not deemed ready, or if he is traded.

If Riley is deemed ready, pushing Camargo to a bench role, I would prefer to see the Braves add a 4th OFer who can actually hit.

A guy like Dietrich (or the more expensive Marwin) can play both IF and OF, so I think he'd be a good addition.

[Jaw]

Career splits for our infielders:

Camargo .919 OPS against lefties, .747 against righties
Swanson .725 and .673
Albies .908 and .718

It is obvious that the team would benefit from an infielder who could spell these guys against right handed pitching. I realize some of the splits data for 2018 looked different. But single season splits are often misleading. You want to go with the bigger samples for predictive purposes.

I offer for the board's consideration the following candidates:

Marwin Gonzalez .730 against lefties, .740 against righties
Asdrubal Cabrera .759 and .751
Derek Dietrich .672 and .777
Yangervis Solarte .693 and .742
Jake Lamb .557 and .838
Neil Walker .674 and .795
Mike Moustakas .693 and .755

With bullpens getting longer, benches are getting shorter. Which puts efficient bench construction at a premium. It is clear that an infielder who hits RHP well would be a very efficient complement to the guys we currently have. Ideally it would be someone who can play all over the diamond. But given that Camargo and Albies can be moved around, that isn't essential. The essential part is investing well in terms of finding a solid hitter from the left side this off-season.

I like your idea, but Lamb and Walker are the only players listed who would represent a tangible improvement over the in house options (with the exception of Swanson) against RH pitchers. The others are just equally bad against RHs as Camargo and Albies.

Wouldn't it be more effective to platoon or replace Swanson and keep Camargo and Albies full time? SS still looks to me like the best position to target for an upgrade.

[salmagundy]

I like your idea, but Lamb and Walker are the only players listed who would represent a tangible improvement over the in house options (with the exception of Swanson) against RH pitchers. The others are just equally bad against RHs as Camargo and Albies.

Wouldn't it be more effective to platoon or replace Swanson and keep Camargo and Albies full time? SS still looks to me like the best position to target for an upgrade.

Swanson is definitely the weak link. I would rather try to find a way to replace Swanson than to opt for a guy to replace all three on a rotational basis. I know, Enscheff will plead the case, as he's done before, that Swanson's glove out weights his bat. All glove/no bat players are becoming a thing of the past. The game has transformed to an offensive game. The lack of quality pitching(being able to go 7+ IP a game) has made BPs more explosive and hitting more important, as made evident by Quality Start figures(6 IP and 3 runs or less).

[Southcack77]

Swanson is definitely the weak link. I would rather try to find a way to replace Swanson than to opt for a guy to replace all three on a rotational basis. I know, Enscheff will plead the case, as he's done before, that Swanson's glove out weights his bat. All glove/no bat players are becoming a thing of the past. The game has transformed to an offensive game. The lack of quality pitching(being able to go 7+ IP a game) has made BPs more explosive and hitting more important, as made evident by Quality Start figures(6 IP and 3 runs or less).


Swanson is a very cheap 2 WAR player at a defensive intensive position.

He was also a 15% better hitter in 2018 than in 2017 despite being (very slightly) less fortunate on balls in play in 2018.

I think upgrading him would be well worth considering, but it's not exactly urgent while he makes next to nothing.

If he's kind the player that still has the value around the league to secure you a coveted trade asset, I think you have to consider that too.

[nsacpi]

I like your idea, but Lamb and Walker are the only players listed who would represent a tangible improvement over the in house options (with the exception of Swanson) against RH pitchers. The others are just equally bad against RHs as Camargo and Albies.

Wouldn't it be more effective to platoon or replace Swanson and keep Camargo and Albies full time? SS still looks to me like the best position to target for an upgrade.

Camargo left-handed out-BABIPed Camargo-right handed this year even though he hits the ball harder from the right side. I suspect his left-handed numbers are a little high relative to what they will be going forward.

But your point in general is a good one. I would say Dietrich, Lamb and Walker would represent upgrades from the left side.

We are left with a bit of a choice. Gonzalez is more versatile. Dietrich, Lamb and Walker more limited defensively but will likely give you more with the bat from the left side. I would say the latter consideration carries more weight.

I like Walker from a couple perspectives. First, he is a free agent who will cost maybe half of what Gonzalez will. Second, he is a veteran who has made the transition from regular to part-time player. He really struggled in the first half of this past season (which should remind people that the transition can take a little time and that they shouldn't give up so quickly on Duvall) but had an excellent second half.

[Enscheff]

Swanson is definitely the weak link. I would rather try to find a way to replace Swanson than to opt for a guy to replace all three on a rotational basis. I know, Enscheff will plead the case, as he's done before, that Swanson's glove out weights his bat. All glove/no bat players are becoming a thing of the past. The game has transformed to an offensive game. The lack of quality pitching(being able to go 7+ IP a game) has made BPs more explosive and hitting more important, as made evident by Quality Start figures(6 IP and 3 runs or less).

You are 100% correct when you assert the importance of defense is declining as players K, BB and HR more often.

This article shows how the defensive chances for each position other than 3B have declined ovr the last 10 years:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/where-defensive-opportunities-have-declined-most/

SS and 2B are seeing roughly 20% fewer chances than back in 2008, which means defense at those positions is roughly 20% less valuable than it was a decade ago.

The thing is, WAR calculations account for that decline in defensive value year to year. In the current MLB environment, Swanson's combination of offense and defense is worth ~2 wins. While he is cheap, 2 wins is perfectly acceptable at the SS position.

[depley]

Look closer at Dansby and where he hits in the line up, 8th.
The average NL 8th place batter hit .229, OBP of .304, slugging of .357 and OPS of .661
Dansby hit .243, .314 OBP, .369 slugging and .683 OPS, all better than average for an 8th place batter. add to that his plus defensively he is not the guy I am looking to replace.

He hits is a tough place in the order.

[bravesfanMatt]

Swanson isn’t a 30 year old 2 win player who we know who he is. He is a top pick rushed to the bigs and has battles with injuries and slumps. Let him play and produce his 2-3 wins. Maybe he is better than this.

[NYCBrave]

You are 100% correct when you assert the importance of defense is declining as players K, BB and HR more often.

This article shows how the defensive chances for each position other than 3B have declined ovr the last 10 years:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/where-defensive-opportunities-have-declined-most/

SS and 2B are seeing roughly 20% fewer chances than back in 2008, which means defense at those positions is roughly 20% less valuable than it was a decade ago.

The thing is, WAR calculations account for that decline in defensive value year to year. In the current MLB environment, Swanson's combination of offense and defense is worth ~2 wins. While he is cheap, 2 wins is perfectly acceptable at the SS position.

That research makes alot of sense, especially when you see the Brewers using Shaw at 2B and the Dodgers using Muncy. The types or players with limited mobility who would never been a thought for those positions in the past.

[nsacpi]

SS was our lowest WAR position but I dont think replacing Swanson should be something we should be looking at this off-season. We have a talented young infield. I'd like to keep the band together even while adding some left handed hitting reinforcement.

The more I think about it the more I like Walker as a complementary infielder.

[salmagundy]

SS was our lowest WAR position but I dont think replacing Swanson should be something we should be looking at this off-season. We have a talented young infield. I'd like to keep the band together even while adding some left handed hitting reinforcement.

The more I think about it the more I like Walker as a complementary infielder.

The stats I'm finding for Walker are far different than those posted.

He has an OPS of .713 as a LHH vs RHP, and .477 as RHH vs LHP.. But, will he be satisfied as a bench piece? He appeared in 113 games, starting 95 in '18 with a minus 0.1 WAR. He played primarily 1B(38 games) 31 games at 2B, and 19 at 3rd, 1 LF, and 13 in RF, NO games at SS. 2018 contract was for 4 mil.

[drewdat]

Dansby tied for 6th in MLB with 15 IBBs. Trout and Schwarber were 20+, but I bet he would have caught Machado, Carpenter, and Harper if he hadn't missed a few weeks. Noticed that a few weeks back.

Not really sure what that means, other than I suspect his already poor OBP is a little inflated. Maybe no one else got as consistent playing time in the 8th spot? Maybe 6 and 7 had a higher % of runners left in scoring position resulting in 2 outs for the 8th hitter?

[nsacpi]

The stats I'm finding for Walker are far different than those posted.

He has an OPS of .713 as a LHH vs RHP, and .477 as RHH vs LHP.. But, will he be satisfied as a bench piece? He appeared in 113 games, starting 95 in '18 with a minus 0.1 WAR. He played primarily 1B(38 games) 31 games at 2B, and 19 at 3rd, 1 LF, and 13 in RF, NO games at SS. 2018 contract was for 4 mil.

The OP makes clear I am using career splits and discusses why. The numbers you cited are Walker's 2018 splits.

He played a lot of first for the Yankees because Bird was injured or ineffective and some outfield because Stanton had a leg injury that led the team to use him mostly as DH for some stretches and Judge missed time due to a broken bone in his hand. He was signed mostly to back up Torres at second and Andujar at third. But his versatility came into play when injuries happened at other positions.

If he signed with the Braves it would be mostly to play second or third. In some of those games presumably Albies or Camargo would slide to short. The Yankees did something like that by starting Gleyber Torres 15 times at short.

[50PoundHead]

I like Dietrich, but I didn't realize that he's pretty much turned into an OF/1B guy because of his suspect defense at 3B and 2B. That said, I think he'd be a solid option. I agree with nsacpi that benches have to have a super-utility guy these days along with some position flexibility with some of the starters. I think MLB really should expand the rosters by 1 to 26 and freeze the number of pitchers at 13.

[salmagundy]

nsacpi said" The OP makes clear I am using career splits and discusses why. The numbers you cited are Walker's 2018 splits."

Since Camargo has played 1+ years(82 games in '17 and 134 in '18)

Albies has played 1+ years(57 games in '17. 158 in '18)

and Swanson 2+ years (38 in '16, 144 in '17 and 136 in '18)

I feel using Walker's '18 stats to be a better comparison than 9 year career stat since the limited career stats for Camamrgo, and Albies are so small of a sample it's not fair to try to compare their career numbers to a 9 year veteran. Especially one who has a roller coaster of certain stats.

[Southcack77]

The OP makes clear I am using career splits and discusses why. The numbers you cited are Walker's 2018 splits.

He played a lot of first for the Yankees because Bird was injured or ineffective and some outfield because Stanton had a leg injury that led the team to use him mostly as DH for some stretches and Judge missed time due to a broken bone in his hand. He was signed mostly to back up Torres at second and Andujar at third. But his versatility came into play when injuries happened at other positions.

If he signed with the Braves it would be mostly to play second or third. In some of those games presumably Albies or Camargo would slide to short. The Yankees did something like that by starting Gleyber Torres 15 times at short.


Has Albies played an inning at SS? I don't doubt his ability to do it, but the Braves simply have not shown any inclination to do it. I think that may be a mistake, but maybe it's just a matter of not wanting to disconcert Dansby. Or put too much on Ozzie.

[smootness]

nsacpi said" The OP makes clear I am using career splits and discusses why. The numbers you cited are Walker's 2018 splits."

Since Camargo has played 1+ years(82 games in '17 and 134 in '18)

Albies has played 1+ years(57 games in '17. 158 in '18)

and Swanson 2+ years (38 in '16, 144 in '17 and 136 in '18)

I feel using Walker's '18 stats to be a better comparison than 9 year career stat since the limited career stats for Camamrgo, and Albies are so small of a sample it's not fair to try to compare their career numbers to a 9 year veteran. Especially one who has a roller coaster of certain stats.

Just because we have less reliable info on the younger guys doesn't mean we should also then use less reliable info on Walker. We have a better idea of what Walker really is than the others, yes, but that's a good thing in the comparison.

[nsacpi]

nsacpi said" The OP makes clear I am using career splits and discusses why. The numbers you cited are Walker's 2018 splits."

Since Camargo has played 1+ years(82 games in '17 and 134 in '18)

Albies has played 1+ years(57 games in '17. 158 in '18)

and Swanson 2+ years (38 in '16, 144 in '17 and 136 in '18)

I feel using Walker's '18 stats to be a better comparison than 9 year career stat since the limited career stats for Camamrgo, and Albies are so small of a sample it's not fair to try to compare their career numbers to a 9 year veteran. Especially one who has a roller coaster of certain stats.

That's a fair point regarding the longevity of Walker's career. The best data for figuring out underlying splits for predictive purposes are the most recent 1,500 or so PAs. In the case of the younger guys like Camargo and Albies we have less than that many in the majors. But we have minor league data which basically confirm they both have a strong right handed skew.

With respect to Walker, I would make a few points. Last year he had a miserable first half .563 OPS and pretty good second half .788 OPS. So I don't think he is washed up. The second point I would make is that it probably makes sense to look at his last three years of splits data (covering 1,404 PAs). This is what they show:

2016 1.001 vs lefties and .766 vs righties (as I said you can get a pretty misleading picture from one season)
2017 .610 vs lefties and .854 vs righties
2018 .477 vs lefties and .713 vs righties

A reasonable projection for 2019 is he will give you something in the .750-.800 range against righties and something in the .600-.650 range against lefties. Albies and Camargo would project to something in the .700-.750 range against righties and Swanson .650-.700 against righties. Walker (or Dietrich or Lamb) would be a very good complementary player for this team.

[nsacpi]

Has Albies played an inning at SS?

Zero in the majors. I look at how the Dodgers use guys like Taylor and Kike Hernandez and hope the Braves will catch on.

The Yankees used Gleyber Torres as their second baseman but gave him 15 starts at short. Something like that would make sense for Albies. I don't think that would put too much on Ozzie or bruise Swanson's psyche too much. There is also an outside chance that Ozzie turns out to be a much better defensive shortstop than any of us realize.

[Enscheff]

That research makes alot of sense, especially when you see the Brewers using Shaw at 2B and the Dodgers using Muncy. The types or players with limited mobility who would never been a thought for those positions in the past.

Modern defensive positioning is also covering up for lack of range on the IF, and in the OF to a lesser extent.

[NYCBrave]

Modern defensive positioning is also covering up for lack of range on the IF, and in the OF to a lesser extent.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the game has advanced ALOT in these areas over the past few years. We've always had shifts, but now we're seeing players blatantly playing out of position but being backed up by defensive positioning to limit the damage.