Concentration of WAR vs Deep Depth

[nsacpi]

One underlying theme in a lot of the discussion about post-season plans is whether AA should prioritize depth or high end talent as he tries to improve the team.

I'll kick things off by looking at the top 5 WAR producers for the two teams who made the World Series this year.

The top 5 for the Red Sox were:

Betts 10.4
Sale 6.5
Martinez 5.9
Bogaerts 4.9
Benitendi 4.3
Total: 32.0

The top 5 for the Dodgers were:

Muncy 5.2
Turner 4.2
Bellinger 3.6
Grandal 3.6
Kershaw 3.5
Total: 20.1

(note the post-season version of the Dodgers also had Manny Machado, a 6.2 WAR player this year)

Still, the comparison gives you an idea of the historical excellence of the Red Sox' core players this season.

For comparison the top 5 for the Bravos:

Freeman 5.2
Folty 3.9
Albies 3.8
Acuna 3.7
Camargo 3.3
Total: 19.9

A few observations:

1) Except for Freeman, who is in his prime, the other 4 on the Braves list will likely improve the next few seasons.

2) It is interesting that for all three teams referenced above, there was 1 pitcher among the top 5 producers in 2018.

3) The Braves are obviously behind the Red Sox and Dodgers both in terms of top producers and in terms of deep depth.

4) Given the youth of our top producers we have a good chance to be an elite team in that category going forward. I don't think we have a problem in terms of not having enough "highly concentrated" production.

5) We also have a chance to move up in the deep depth department given the financial flexibility AA has this off-season and the still very strong farm system.

[BeanieAntics]

One underlying theme in a lot of the discussion about post-season plans is whether AA should prioritize depth or high end talent as he tries to improve the team.

I'll kick things off by looking at the top 5 WAR producers for the two teams who made the World Series this year.

The top 5 for the Red Sox were:

Betts 10.4
Sale 6.5
Martinez 5.9
Bogaerts 4.9
Benitendi 4.3
Total: 32.0

The top 5 for the Dodgers were:

Muncy 5.2
Turner 4.2
Bellinger 3.6
Grandal 3.6
Kershaw 3.5
Total: 20.1

(note the post-season version of the Dodgers also had Manny Machado, a 6.2 WAR player this year)

Still, the comparison gives you an idea of the historical excellence of the Red Sox' core players this season.

For comparison the top 5 for the Bravos:

Freeman 5.2
Folty 3.9
Albies 3.8
Acuna 3.7
Camargo 3.3
Total: 19.9

A few observations:

1) Except for Freeman, who is in his prime, the other 4 on the Braves list will likely improve the next few seasons.

2) It is interesting that for all three teams referenced above, there was 1 pitcher among the top 5 producers in 2018.

3) The Braves are obviously behind the Red Sox and Dodgers both in terms of top producers and in terms of deep depth.

4) Given the youth of our top producers we have good chance to be an elite team in that category going forward.

5) We also have a chance to move up in the deep depth department given the financial flexibility AA has this off-season and the still very strong farm system.

This is exactly why I'm advocating a more depth based approach. I think we have the young offensive pieces to develop a couple more core players to go along with Freeman. Our pitching also possesses the depth and youth to produce another core player or two. This offseason we should be focusing on filling our holes with competent, above average players and then using the remaining surplus to bolster our offensive depth. I think we are in the unique position where we can take a hybrid approach, as opposed to the binary "scrubs and studs" vs. "no scrubs" approach. We have developed a couple young, cost controlled players who could fit that "stud" label very soon. This should give us the flexibility to build a pretty deep team, even with our limited payroll. If we can get 5+ WAR out of Freeman and Acuna, get 3-4+ WAR out of Albies/OF-C Acquisition/possibly Camargo, and then another 1-2 WAR out of the rest of the lineup and bench, then that will be a very potent offense.