Fried's new pitch

[Enscheff]

We have seen Fried debut a new pitch in mid-80s that looks good. Turns out it's a slider, and he threw it twice last night. Let's see how good of a pitch that thing is...

First, let's do a sanity check on the other stuff he threw last night, the FA and CU.

FA: Velo = 95.0 mph (Grade 61.8), X-Mov = -1.1" (Grade 27.1), Z-Mov = 7.2" (Grade 33.9)

This is still the same flat and straight FA with plus velocity. The lack of movement on this pitch will always make it less effective than the velocity suggests.

CU: Velo = 76.3 mph (Grade 41.7), X-Mov = -4.5" (Grade 50.9), Z-Mov = -13.8" (Grade Broken)

Yup, the downer CU somehow got even better. Maybe he just snapped off 3 doozies last night, but this is quite possibly the premier 12-6 CU in the game today. It is Zito-like...or better.

SL: Velo = 83.4 mph (Grade 44.9), X-Mov = -8.6" (Grade 80), Z-Mov = -3.7" (Grade 74.8)

Look...he only threw 2 of them, but this movement data is nasty, and there's no other way to describe this Ohtani-like SL. The limited data suggests Fried just added another elite breaking pitch with a completely different shape than his CU.

My knock on Fried has always been the lack of movement on his FA, but with what appear to be 2 elite breaking pitches, it may not matter. Keep in mind Fried also has an above average CH in his pocket that moves exactly opposite to his SL.

Suddenly Fried is a guy with 2 elite breaking balls, an above average CH, and a ~40 FA that grades out as barely usable...but it doesn't matter because the breaking stuff is sooooo (yes, 5 o's) good.

Fried was the guy I most wanted to see data on, and even though he still hasn't added the SI, it may not matter. These breaking balls plus the presence of a good CH means he is a clear 2-3 option if the control plays (that's 3-4 fWAR). If he adds the 50/60 SI I think he can, and the control plays...he's the best SP in the organization.

Fried is not a guy who should be throwing mop up innings in blowout losses, or traded for MadBum...that's for sure. The possibility of these types of repertoire tweaks is why I've always been so hesitant to include Fried in trades.

[Hudson2]

Man I couldn’t agree more. No way does Fried need to be a bullpen guy. He needs to be in the rotation.

[bravesfanMatt]

The real question is how is Luke Jackson stuff. #burning_questions

[msstate7]

How effective is his change if he throws mostly off speed?

[smootness]

Genuine question - when a guy has multiple very good breaking balls, does it lessen the need somewhat for movement on the fastball? Obviously his fastball will never be above average if it's that flat, but is it possible that it's a 40 pitch that in his repertoire acts more like a 45-50 because of the velocity?

[thethe]

Thanks for the data.

Frieds a stud and has just begun to scratch the surface of his potential.

[bravesfanMatt]

How effective is his change if he throws mostly off speed?

It would be very effective. It moves different. Go up against fried as a RHH. You now have to look for a harder slider that breaks down and away. Or the hammer curve that looks like a high heater until it just drops straight down. Or is he going to toss a change that looks straight but then bites down and in on you. Our is he just going to gas me up and I won’t have time to react because of all his other garbage.

[thethe]

Having to think about another offspeed path makes his fastball that much more effective.

[Super]

it's interesting that he has two breaking pitches that move a ton but he can't get movement on his fastball.

[Bravesfannchar]

Great stuff, man!

Not that it really matters, but I’m trying to learn... would this profile project as a #2 starter or what?

[Super]

Great stuff, man!

Not that it really matters, but I’m trying to learn... would this profile project as a #2 starter or what?

looks like he said that if he can control the pithces well enough, he's a 3-4 win guy. which yes i believe would be a 2.

[Bravesfannchar]

Thanks, Super.

This stuff is always extremely interesting.

Enscheff,

Are you going to be doing these on Wright / Wilson, when you get time, after their starts?

[nsacpi]

Thanks, Super.

This stuff is always extremely interesting.

Enscheff,

Are you going to be doing these on Wright / Wilson, when you get time, after their starts?

He'd better.

[Enscheff]

Great stuff, man!

Not that it really matters, but I’m trying to learn... would this profile project as a #2 starter or what?

It’s pretty hard to give a concrete answer to this, but assuming average-ish control, pitchers are usually grouped roughly as:

#1 (5+ WAR, CYA candidate): 1-2 pitches that are 70/80, 1-2 other plus pitches
#2 (~4 WAR, still TOR): 2 pitches that are 60/70, 1-2 other above average pitches
#3 (~3 WAR): 1-2 pitches that are 60+, 1-2 other average or better pitches
#4 (~2 WAR, average SP): 2-3 pitches that are 50/60, 1-2 other usable pitches
#5 (~1 WAR): couple average pitches with durability to throw 75 pitches in a game

Of course guys with excellent control move up, and guys with poor control move down. Someone like Keuchel was a 5+ win guy based on excellent control and an elite breaking ball, while Newk has #2 stuff, but the control makes him a #4 overall (why I call him a “stuff #4”). Someone like Scherzer doesn’t have any elite pitches, but his control over several plus pitches makes him great.

It’s rare for guys to be really good without a good FA/SI foundation, but it certainly does happen.

[Enscheff]

Thanks, Super.

This stuff is always extremely interesting.

Enscheff,

Are you going to be doing these on Wright / Wilson, when you get time, after their starts?

Wright's stuff is looked at here:

http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8626

You can likely find similar data on Wilson in the GDT for his debut. He's more along the lines of a generic #4 with several 50/60 pitches.

Since these guys are young I'll keep tabs on their stuff, but 1 game's data isn't really enough to draw conclusions.

I only posted about Fried because we knew the SL was a new pitch, and there wasn't anything else to talk about on an off day 1 game into the season.

[Bravesfannchar]

Appreciate it.

That makes perfect sense. I remember those threads and was just wonderingly purely based on the Fried update. Hopefully, both perform and stay in the big leagues long enough to get a larger sample size.

[striker42]

Wright's stuff is looked at here:

http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8626

You can likely find similar data on Wilson in the GDT for his debut. He's more along the lines of a generic #4 with several 50/60 pitches.

Since these guys are young I'll keep tabs on their stuff, but 1 game's data isn't really enough to draw conclusions.

I only posted about Fried because we knew the SL was a new pitch, and there wasn't anything else to talk about on an off day 1 game into the season.

Wilson is one I want to see more data on. He's one of our few prospects who put up decent K numbers without control being an issue. I'm hoping he was overthrowing in his one start causing him to lose movement on his stuff. Not impossible but it's only a hope at this point.

Have you ever done one of these writeups for Soroka? He had a larger data set than either Wright or Wilson last year.

[50PoundHead]

It would be very effective. It moves different. Go up against fried as a RHH. You now have to look for a harder slider that breaks down and away. Or the hammer curve that looks like a high heater until it just drops straight down. Or is he going to toss a change that looks straight but then bites down and in on you. Our is he just going to gas me up and I won’t have time to react because of all his other garbage.

Glavine made a living off RHH with his change. Just looked it up and a rare guy with even splits (in terms of OPSa) against RHH and LHH. I think the key with the fastball--even if it's flat--is if he can locate it for quality strikes in the zone in the mid-90s, he makes a guesser out of the hitter.

[Enscheff]

Wilson is one I want to see more data on. He's one of our few prospects who put up decent K numbers without control being an issue. I'm hoping he was overthrowing in his one start causing him to lose movement on his stuff. Not impossible but it's only a hope at this point.

Have you ever done one of these writeups for Soroka? He had a larger data set than either Wright or Wilson last year.

I looked at his stuff after his first start here:

http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8073&page=5&p=487820#post487820

Might be useful to take a look at his stuff based on the rest of his season, but the shoulder injury makes the data less meaningful.

[striker42]

I looked at his stuff after his first start here:

http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8073&page=5&p=487820#post487820

Might be useful to take a look at his stuff based on the rest of his season, but the shoulder injury makes the data less meaningful.

Thanks! I love Soroka's sinker/slider combo. I just hope the kid can get healthy.

[Jaw]

We have seen Fried debut a new pitch......

These are easily my favorite posts of yours. Thanks for putting in the work to make them.

I agree with several others that the elite slow stuff should allow the flat fastball to play up somewhat, as long as it maintains plus velocity. If he instead managed to fulfill your desire for a sinker, he could be the best pitcher this team has had this century. Potential is exciting stuff.

[Jaw]

Sav, I would be willing to triple the membership fee I've been paying if these pitcher analytic threads were archived someplace they could be easily found.

[nsacpi]

Sav, I would be willing to triple the membership fee I've been paying if these pitcher analytic threads were archived someplace they could be easily found.

they are there in the premium section

[brian22]

Any data on last night’s performance? I’d love to see how his fastball graded out.

[AerchAngel]

If I know Scheff, he is working on it. Master of Statistics.

[Bravesfannchar]

Probably +velo, -movement.

[Southcack77]

If I know Scheff, he is working on it. Master of Statistics.

Give him a second, he's only been at work 30 minutes. Barely enough time to run out of early morning porn.

[brian22]

Probably +velo, -movement.
Well, yeah....

[Enscheff]

Any data on last night’s performance? I’d love to see how his fastball graded out.

Recap of the stuff we saw from his short first outing:

FA: Velo = 95.0 mph (Grade 61.8), X-Mov = -1.1" (Grade 27.1), Z-Mov = 7.2" (Grade 33.9)
CU: Velo = 76.3 mph (Grade 41.7), X-Mov = -4.5" (Grade 50.9), Z-Mov = -13.8" (Grade Broken)
SL: Velo = 83.4 mph (Grade 44.9), X-Mov = -8.6" (Grade 80), Z-Mov = -3.7" (Grade 74.8)

And what we saw in a much longer outing last night:

FA: Velo = 94.6 mph, X-Mov = 1.7", Z-Mov = 6.9"

Still the same flat FA, but it's good to see him maintain the velocity for 80+ pitches.

CU: Velo = 74.8 mph, X-Mov = -5.6", Z-Mov = -11.3"

CU went from broken drop to 80 Grade drop. This is still a hammer. We may want to monitor the shape of it in case it starts to flatten out and starts moving more horizontally than vertically.

SL: Velo = 84.5, X-Mov = -6.1", Z-Mov = -1'4"

SL backed up quite a bit, appearing to lose quite a bit of movement on both axes. Still a definite 65/70 pitch, but I think we are starting to see why it's so hard for SPs to maintain both a CU and a SL. CUs are supposed to have more of a vertical shape, while SLs are supposed to move more horizontally. I imagine it is a challenge to keep both pitches dialed in so they don't start to look like each other.

CH: 10.4 mph delta (Grade >60), X-Mov = 7.3" (Grade <50), Z-Mov = 3.2" (Grade ~55)

He is still only flashing the CH (6 times so far in 2019), but it is flashing as an above average pitch.

I have been hesitant to trade Fried for a while now because I wanted to see him drop the FA and add the SI. The spin rate he gets on the CU (2800+) is obviously very very good, but the spin rate he gets on the FA (~2100) is very bad. With the new CU/SL combo it may not matter much, but I would love to see how that low spin rate he gets on the FA correlates to a SI.

[bravesfanMatt]

Weather seemed to play with pitch selection. I would not think Max would rely so heavily on his fastball like he did last night.

[Nerfherders]

It was quite a performance for the kid. He could pretty much throw whatever he wanted wherever he wanted. 96 on the outside corner witht he fastball. The next hitter same spot with a changeup. The Cubs had no chance.

[striker42]

If Fried were to have the command on his fastball in every outing that he had last night, I'd have no concerns about that pitch at all. Almost any pitch is effective when you're able to place it like Fried was last night.

[zbhargrove]

If Fried can stay healthy he’s going to be excellent. I think our future rotation will have Fried, Wright, Folty, and Muller as the main healthy 4... I go back and forth about Anderson’s future and Touki has a shot if he can continue to improve his control. Soroka and Gohara are the 2 real wild cards. Possibly our 2 best arm talents with so much uncertainty regarding health

[striker42]

Fried was awesome last night. Can't knock that performance at all. However, I'm not ready to make up my mind on him. Not even close.

Fried has had command issues in the past. One night with his A+ command doesn't erase that. If he shows he can have good command consistently, he could be really, really good.

[Enscheff]

Fried was awesome last night. Can't knock that performance at all. However, I'm not ready to make up my mind on him. Not even close.

Fried has had command issues in the past. One night with his A+ command doesn't erase that. If he shows he can have good command consistently, he could be really, really good.

This is very true.

My post was about his stuff, but his control is still very much an issue that needs to be resolved. He may not quite be Newk-bad, but he isn't exactly Soroka out there.

I still have him pegged as the Braves Mike Montgomery, but the stuff is there to be much more if the command comes around and both breaking balls continue to be weapons.

[Hudson2]

I give Fried more of a pass than Newk bc of time loss due to TJ.

[AerchAngel]

I did not think Fried threw that hard. 95 to 97?

[Enscheff]

I did not think Fried threw that hard. 95 to 97?

This reminded me to check statcast on a few of his FAs last night.

Sure enough, he threw 3 at 96.8, 97.0, and 97.2, so the velocity numbers we saw in tv last night were legit.

[atl717]

This reminded me to check statcast on a few of his FAs last night.

Sure enough, he threw 3 at 96.8, 97.0, and 97.2, so the velocity numbers we saw in tv last night were legit.

I think he means is the bump in velocity legit. Not whether the radar gun was off.

[brian22]

It’s funny how having a night of good control will trick you into thinking his stuff is at its peak.Thanks for the info, Enscheff.

[The Chosen One]

Sav, I would be willing to triple the membership fee I've been paying if these pitcher analytic threads were archived someplace they could be easily found.

That's what Enscheff's Lair is for.

[CyYoung31]

That's what Enscheff's Lair is for.

https://i.imgflip.com/2xw1hp.jpg