Enscheff
04-26-2019, 11:17 AM
The Braves big FA splash just crossed the 100 PA mark, so it's time to see if they are getting their money's worth.
Overall Slash Line:
104 PAs, .261/.375/.477 (.852 OPS, .216 ISO), 127 wRC+, 0.6 WAR
What's Not Real:
The HR drought Donaldson had the first week or two of the season wasn't going to continue. His batted ball data suggested he was hitting the ball as hard as ever, and it was just a matter of time before the HRs came. Exactly as expected, a few of those hard hit balls cleared the wall, and his numbers regressed accordingly. The freak out by the fan base was unwarranted...as usual.
Donaldson's .345 BABIP is a career high so far, and pretty obviously due for some regression. He doesn't possess any of the traits of a guy who can maintain a high BABIP (high LD%, sprays the ball around, fast, LHH), so we can expect the BABIP to regress to somewhere in the low .300s. That regression will be a drag on his overall line, but hopefully an improvement in his K rate can help compensate.
What Is Real:
Donaldson is exactly who we thought he is. He is hitting the ball more consistently hard than any Brave with an average FB/LD exit velocity of 100.3 mph, which is also good for #2 in MLB. He is walking at his typical 15.4% rate. His FBs are leaving the park at a rate of 22.2%, which makes sense for a guy hitting the ball so hard so consistently.
The less exciting real parts about Donaldson's game are the parts that illustrate the fact he is declining as a player. The K rate has now been increasing for 3 straight seasons to his career high of 27.9% so far this year. His FB rate has been declining for 2 years now, and is currently 30.5%. Those FBs have turned into GBs, and the rate he hits them has been increasing for 3 years now, and is currently at a career high of 52.5%. Needless to say, this is not good news for a guy who's value largely lies in his ability to hit FBs with high exit velocity so they clear the OF wall.
Moving Forward:
As the third member of the "3 MVP candidates" triumvirate, Donaldson is performing well as he paces for 4+ wins, but the days of him being a true MVP candidate are likely behind him. The decline years of a peak talent 8 win player are still going to be very valuable though, and the Braves are enjoying one of those decline years for $23M...great value. Some of the Braves newfound team-wide plate discipline (11.4% BB rate is #2 in MLB) might partially be chalked up to his influence as well.
The signs of decline are clearly present though. Higher Ks and less FBs is precisely how elite power hitters (non-Bonds category) fall off the table at the end of their career. I would be hesitant to sign JD past this season, and I certainly wouldn't want to be the team who gives him 3+ years and $50M+. I would like to see the Braves offer him a QO after this season if he finishes it healthy, and then let him walk away if he doesn't accept that 1 year $18M-$19M offer.
For the rest of 2019 I expect to see JD be the embodiment of the "three true outcomes hitter"...a lot of BBs, Ks, and HRs. He probably should be swapped in the lineup with Acuna at this point, but who knows if it's worth rocking the boat.
Overall Slash Line:
104 PAs, .261/.375/.477 (.852 OPS, .216 ISO), 127 wRC+, 0.6 WAR
What's Not Real:
The HR drought Donaldson had the first week or two of the season wasn't going to continue. His batted ball data suggested he was hitting the ball as hard as ever, and it was just a matter of time before the HRs came. Exactly as expected, a few of those hard hit balls cleared the wall, and his numbers regressed accordingly. The freak out by the fan base was unwarranted...as usual.
Donaldson's .345 BABIP is a career high so far, and pretty obviously due for some regression. He doesn't possess any of the traits of a guy who can maintain a high BABIP (high LD%, sprays the ball around, fast, LHH), so we can expect the BABIP to regress to somewhere in the low .300s. That regression will be a drag on his overall line, but hopefully an improvement in his K rate can help compensate.
What Is Real:
Donaldson is exactly who we thought he is. He is hitting the ball more consistently hard than any Brave with an average FB/LD exit velocity of 100.3 mph, which is also good for #2 in MLB. He is walking at his typical 15.4% rate. His FBs are leaving the park at a rate of 22.2%, which makes sense for a guy hitting the ball so hard so consistently.
The less exciting real parts about Donaldson's game are the parts that illustrate the fact he is declining as a player. The K rate has now been increasing for 3 straight seasons to his career high of 27.9% so far this year. His FB rate has been declining for 2 years now, and is currently 30.5%. Those FBs have turned into GBs, and the rate he hits them has been increasing for 3 years now, and is currently at a career high of 52.5%. Needless to say, this is not good news for a guy who's value largely lies in his ability to hit FBs with high exit velocity so they clear the OF wall.
Moving Forward:
As the third member of the "3 MVP candidates" triumvirate, Donaldson is performing well as he paces for 4+ wins, but the days of him being a true MVP candidate are likely behind him. The decline years of a peak talent 8 win player are still going to be very valuable though, and the Braves are enjoying one of those decline years for $23M...great value. Some of the Braves newfound team-wide plate discipline (11.4% BB rate is #2 in MLB) might partially be chalked up to his influence as well.
The signs of decline are clearly present though. Higher Ks and less FBs is precisely how elite power hitters (non-Bonds category) fall off the table at the end of their career. I would be hesitant to sign JD past this season, and I certainly wouldn't want to be the team who gives him 3+ years and $50M+. I would like to see the Braves offer him a QO after this season if he finishes it healthy, and then let him walk away if he doesn't accept that 1 year $18M-$19M offer.
For the rest of 2019 I expect to see JD be the embodiment of the "three true outcomes hitter"...a lot of BBs, Ks, and HRs. He probably should be swapped in the lineup with Acuna at this point, but who knows if it's worth rocking the boat.