Austin Riley Apology Thread

[bravesfanforlife88]

I have to admit that I was one of the biggest advocates to trade Riley this offseason in the JTR talks. Boy am I glad that we did not let him go because this kid is on fire right now....

18 home runs this month between Gwinnett and Atlanta.

[Heyward]

I will admit i wanted JTR bad, and would have done Riley+ for him. Boy am i glad that didnt happen.

Maybe AA knows what hes doing lol.

[bravesfanforlife88]

I will admit i wanted JTR bad, and would have done Riley+ for him. Boy am i glad that didnt happen.

Maybe AA knows what hes doing lol.

This is the Austin Riley apology thread, not the AA apology thread. Still haven’t forgiven him for his bullpen blunder this offseason

[Enscheff]

35 PAs

[CyYoung31]

I’m not apologizing for wanting to trade Riley for Realmuto. It made sense at the time, possibly still does, and I’m still not sold that he’s going to be a great hitter. The power is legit though.

[mqt]

35 PAs

Are you trying to tell me 60% of his FBs won’t be HRs and he won’t hit safely on over half the balls he puts in play? Blasphemy!

[Super]

I’m not apologizing for wanting to trade Riley for Realmuto. It made sense at the time, possibly still does, and I’m still not sold that he’s going to be a great hitter. The power is legit though.

progress he showed in the minors shows it was a great thing he wasn’t dealt for JTR IMO. in the off-season, without hindsight, it made sense. but now it’s a blessing it didn’t happen.

[Heyward]

This is the Austin Riley apology thread, not the AA apology thread. Still haven’t forgiven him for his bullpen blunder this offseason

Most of the big money bullpen guys except Britton/Otto have been a disaster so im kinda meh on that one. And Riley/AA go hand in hand.

[CyYoung31]

progress he showed in the minors shows it was a great thing he wasn’t dealt for JTR IMO. in the off-season, without hindsight, it made sense. but now it’s a blessing it didn’t happen.

Okay. I’m still not apologizing because of hindsight.

[bravesfanMatt]

35 PAs

35 glorious PA.

[thewupk]

I will admit i wanted JTR bad, and would have done Riley+ for him. Boy am i glad that didnt happen.

Maybe AA knows what hes doing lol.

By all accounts AA did offer Riley for JTR but the Marlins held on for a better deal.

[nsacpi]

God bless the Marlins.

[TheBravos]

If the Soroka+Riley offer for JTR last trade deadline is true....wow.

I have said this over and over. Riley has consistently improved and then excelled at every level. It wasn’t some kind of quick explosion, but just so steady. I didn’t think he would do this of course, but I was against trading him. He just showed too much promise.

This is why you see what you have with prospects . No one really saw this happening, and that isn’t so uncommon. Many would have thought Fried was a movable piece also.

JTR is good, but we are getting great production from our catchers. I never wanted JTR for the price. Yelich would have been worth it, if the Marlins would have not ask for Acuna...but they did.

In the end...AA made the right decision on the Yelich trade and on not giving up too much with JTR. In the end he also got lucky, because Riley plus a top pitcher plus ...now appears to be a overpay.

[UNCBlue012]

35 PAs
3,500 smiles across Braves’ fan’s faces though

[bravesfanMatt]

WAR:

JTR 1.8
Riley .5
Soroka 1.2

Clearly we should have traded them.

[jpx7]

This is the Austin Riley apology thread, not the AA apology thread. Still haven’t forgiven him for his bullpen blunder this offseason

What blunder? Spending much money on the bullpen is a fool’s errand.

[jpx7]

I’m not apologizing for wanting to trade Riley for Realmuto. It made sense at the time, possibly still does, and I’m still not sold that he’s going to be a great hitter. The power is legit though.

I’m less super-sold on Riley than I am undersold on Realmuto being worth it.

[The Chosen One]

WAR:

JTR 1.8
Riley .5
Soroka 1.2

Clearly we should have traded them.

Riley should have gotten 1.0 WAR added today just from singlehandedly getting us back in the game then winning it

[Heyward]

What blunder? Spending much money on the bullpen is a fool’s errand.

This, im ok with signing Kimbrel after the draft though.

[TheBravos]

WAR:

JTR 1.8
Riley .5
Soroka 1.2

Clearly we should have traded them.

You would need to subtract Flowers and Bmac’s 1.3...

[TheBravos]

I’m less super-sold on Riley than I am undersold on Realmuto being worth it.

Thing is...we have two capable catchers and a great young prospect in the minors. JTR wasn’t a huge need, and we only would get him for two years. If he was signed to a Yelich deal...then that’s different.

[Southcack77]

Bullpen issue was more not picking up lower cost options than big tickets.

[striker42]

Riley reminds me more and more of Troy Glaus the more I see of him. The swing, the size, everything. I hate to put that kind of comp on a kid but he's the spitting image of Glaus.

[jpx7]

Thing is...we have two capable catchers and a great young prospect in the minors. JTR wasn’t a huge need, and we only would get him for two years. If he was signed to a Yelich deal...then that’s different.

That’s my whole thing too.

[cajunrevenge]

Trading prospects is bad mmmkay

[Russ2dollas]

I’ve watched all of the Riley at bats. I like watching him hit. I have my concerns long term but this is a lot of fun. He’s a good player no doubt. I’m hoping he’s a difference maker over time but we will see.

I never wanted jtr. I wanted us to get grandal like the brewers did. Offer big money for 1-2 years. Higher salary less years. That would be my plan for all free agents. Ideally team options even if they are crazy high options.

[Carp]

I was against JTR trade from the get go since catcher wasn't a need, but I slowly faded towards to being ok with it as it looked inevitable. Glad it didn't happen. But I'll still trade him for Haniger in a heartbeat.

[Carp]

I’m less super-sold on Riley than I am undersold on Realmuto being worth it.

This.

[msstate7]

I was against JTR trade from the get go since catcher wasn't a need, but I slowly faded towards to being ok with it as it looked inevitable. Glad it didn't happen. But I'll still trade him for Haniger in a heartbeat.

I wouldn't. Haniger is almost 29 years old. Riley won't keep hitting at this level, but he will hit. He's also gonna be a 3rd baseman.

[TheBravos]

I was against JTR trade from the get go since catcher wasn't a need, but I slowly faded towards to being ok with it as it looked inevitable. Glad it didn't happen. But I'll still trade him for Haniger in a heartbeat.

Haniger is batting like .232 with around 1.3 WAR and 12 dingers. I have to think Riley would outperform that if up the whole season to this point.

We have two really really promising outfielders that should be in AAA by the end of this season and Guys like Duvall and Demeritte playing great with not a shot to even get a shot....oh and a gold glove center fielder just hoping that he won’t come back as our fourth outfielder.

Things have changed. Haniger is not really a need at all anymore.

[zbhargrove]

I’m real excited about what Riley has done so far but that K-rate is starting to get up there and his walk rate is almost non existant. If he can’t mske adjustments in those 2 areas he will eventually be exposed.

[CyYoung31]

I’m real excited about what Riley has done so far but that K-rate is starting to get up there and his walk rate is almost non existant. If he can’t mske adjustments in those 2 areas he will eventually be exposed.

All I’m saying. That was the concern in the minors too, but he steadily improved both areas at each level. We’ll see.

[zbhargrove]

All I’m saying. That was the concern in the minors too, but he steadily improved both areas at each level. We’ll see.

I’m optimistic he can adjust. He’s shown that ability over and over again. Just pointing out the one concerning thing thus far

[Carp]

Haniger is batting like .232 with around 1.3 WAR and 12 dingers. I have to think Riley would outperform that if up the whole season to this point.

We have two really really promising outfielders that should be in AAA by the end of this season and Guys like Duvall and Demeritte playing great with not a shot to even get a shot....oh and a gold glove center fielder just hoping that he won’t come back as our fourth outfielder.

Things have changed. Haniger is not really a need at all anymore.

Like a .250 BABIP though. He has a career high ISO as well. Not to mention, 1.3 WAR would put him tied for 3rd on our team currently, behind FF and Acuna.

Granted he is 28 already, which I forgot. Still, he's proven to be a 4 WAR player and is controllable for like 4 more years.

[Russ2dollas]

I’m real excited about what Riley has done so far but that K-rate is starting to get up there and his walk rate is almost non existant. If he can’t mske adjustments in those 2 areas he will eventually be exposed.

Agree

Guy throws 95 and he ks three times

He needs to keep hitting. He’s shown he can adjust. Plus it’s baseball and it’s hard. And hopefully not hurt us in the field

[msstate7]

Like a .250 BABIP though. He has a career high ISO as well. Not to mention, 1.3 WAR would put him tied for 3rd on our team currently, behind FF and Acuna.

Granted he is 28 already, which I forgot. Still, he's proven to be a 4 WAR player and is controllable for like 4 more years.

He's at 1.1 fWAR, which would be tied with flowers for 6th on braves. Mitch is K'n at 27.9% BTW, which is up 6.2% from his career year last season. Zips, steamer, and depth charts all project him in 2 range in fWAR (2.1-2.7).

[Enscheff]

He's at 1.1 fWAR, which would be tied with flowers for 6th on braves. Mitch is K'n at 27.9% BTW, which is up 6.2% from his career year last season. Zips, steamer, and depth charts all project him in 2 range in fWAR (2.1-2.7).

Those projections are for the rest of the season...so they project him at 3-4 wins overall. Haniger is exactly the player everyone thought he was.

We do know a few things about Riley now, and none of them have to do with his 1.000+ OPS that's hyper-inflated by a .450 BABIP and 50% HR/FB rate (I'm going to assume we no longer have to discuss how unsustainable those numbers are...):

1. His power is legit, but not top of the scale. His hardest hit ball before tonight (I don't know the exit velocity on the double) didn't quite top 110 mph. That puts his raw power in the tier below Acuna/JD with Freeman/Flowers/Markakis/Albies(RHH).

2. His Z-Contact% of 60.8% is well below MLB average of ~85%. There isn't a single qualified MLB hitter that makes contact with pitches in the zone less frequently.

3. His O-Swing% is 43.3%, and would rank #3 in MLB if he were a qualified hitter, tied with Javy Baez...the poster-child for wild swingers.

4. We worry about his ability to catch up to FAs, but the league isn't throwing him many. His 46.2% FA% would rank #158 out of 170 qualified batters.

What I see so far is a good power hitter with a bit of a long swing that is guessing FA often and cheating for it. When he gets it in the zone, he causes damage. When he guesses wrong he either swings at a bad pitch, or fails to make contact altogether.

Add all that up and you get a young mistake hitter who is up there guessing, and is obviously going to K a lot as a result. Only time will tell if he can adjust to MLB quality sequencing, but MLB pitchers will let us know pretty soon. Of course, we have seen Riley make adjustments and improve many times already in many different facets of being a professional baseball player, so it would be pretty dumb to suggest he won't make adjustments at the MLB level to correct these fairly obvious issues.

[AerchAngel]

The doctor, Dr. Scheff analysis.

He is usually, well mostly, right.

[msstate7]

Those projections are for the rest of the season...so they project him at 3-4 wins overall. Haniger is exactly the player everyone thought he was.

We do know a few things about Riley now, and none of them have to do with his 1.000+ OPS that's hyper-inflated by a .450 BABIP and 50% HR/FB rate (I'm going to assume we no longer have to discuss how unsustainable those numbers are...):

1. His power is legit, but not top of the scale. His hardest hit ball before tonight (I don't know the exit velocity on the double) didn't quite top 110 mph. That puts his raw power in the tier below Acuna/JD with Freeman/Flowers/Markakis/Albies(RHH).

2. His Z-Contact% of 60.8% is well below MLB average of ~85%. There isn't a single qualified MLB hitter that makes contact with pitches in the zone less frequently.

3. His O-Swing% is 43.3%, and would rank #3 in MLB if he were a qualified hitter, tied with Javy Baez...the poster-child for wild swingers.

4. We worry about his ability to catch up to FAs, but the league isn't throwing him many. His 46.2% FA% would rank #158 out of 170 qualified batters.

What I see so far is a good power hitter with a bit of a long swing that is guessing FA often and cheating for it. When he gets it in the zone, he causes damage. When he guesses wrong he either swings at a bad pitch, or fails to make contact altogether.

Add all that up and you get a young mistake hitter who is up there guessing, and is obviously going to K a lot as a result. Only time will tell if he can adjust to MLB quality sequencing, but MLB pitchers will let us know pretty soon. Of course, we have seen Riley make adjustments and improve many times already in many different facets of being a professional baseball player, so it would be pretty dumb to suggest he won't make adjustments at the MLB level to correct these fairly obvious issues.

You right... the projections are from here out. I remember when the projections came out that they had haniger way below what most of here thought he'd get, so guess that's why I read the projections wrong. Thanks for correction

[CrimsonCowboy]

Riley reminds me more and more of Troy Glaus the more I see of him. The swing, the size, everything. I hate to put that kind of comp on a kid but he's the spitting image of Glaus.

I completely agree. I was on YouTube not too long ago. Now, I'm far from a professional scout, but I saw good similarities to Glaus with Riley. Time will tell if he had any sort of career like Troy Glaus, but Austin Riley is off to a good start.

[Enscheff]

.440 and 41.7% entering tonight's game

[nsacpi]

remember Dansbers in 2016?

[AerchAngel]

He caught up to that high fastball and crushed it, not many on the team can do it.

[msstate7]

remember Dansbers in 2016?

So you predicting a free fall offensively for 2 years for Riley?

[nsacpi]

So you predicting a free fall offensively for 2 years for Riley?

significant correction is how I would put it...kid is doing great and I'm rooting for him...maybe the K rate is a small sample thing

[msstate7]

significant correction is how I would put it...kid is doing great and I'm rooting for him...maybe the K rate is a small sample thing

I'm as big a Swanson fan as there is here, but I really don't think they're very similar offensively. I think Riley is a better hitter by far

[nsacpi]

I'm as big a Swanson fan as there is here, but I really don't think they're very similar offensively. I think Riley is a better hitter by far

maybe there is a Riley bet in our future

[msstate7]

In 217 PA (AAA and mlb) this season, Riley has 21 HR and 12 2b. That's an extra base hit every 6.6 PA.

[Tapate50]

When the ball is looking as big as it is for him right now, I expect him to be swinging a lot.

[Enscheff]

.481 and 46.2% right now.

How is it possible some of you are still fooled by rates like this after seeing numbers like these regress countless times now?

[msstate7]

.481 and 46.2% right now.

How is it possible some of you are still fooled by rates like this after seeing numbers like these regress countless times now?

Who has said he won't regress? Some of just don't think he's gonna regress into a garbage player.

[nsacpi]

Who has said he won't regress? Some of just don't think he's gonna regress into a garbage player.


No one said he is going to be a garbage player. I think he is going to be a good solid player. If I were going to peg his OPS in the second half of this year, I would go with something in the .800-.850 range.

[msstate7]

No one said he is going to be a garbage player. I think he is going to be a good solid player. If I were going to peg his OPS in the second half of this year, I would go with something in the .800-.850 range.

Then that's a lot to be excited about imo esp considering he'll be 3b in the future

[nsacpi]

Then that's a lot to be excited about imo esp considering he'll be 3b in the future

He has certainly shown a lot of promise.

[UNCBlue012]

.481 and 46.2% right now.

How is it possible some of you are still fooled by rates like this after seeing numbers like these regress countless times now?

Of course, he'll regress, he's a Southerner. ;)

[Orphan Black]

How the hell did Enscheff become a mod...I do not want to read the garbage he posts?

[Enscheff]

How the hell did Enscheff become a mod...I do not want to read the garbage he posts?

What in the world are you talking about? Stop your crying and put me back on ignore please. Then learn how to use a question mark.

[Jaw]

I'm having a lot of fun watching him, I'm glad we didn't trade him, and I'm getting a strong Frenchy vibe from him.
Hopefully the adjustments he seems to make at every level will minimize that last one.

[buck75]

What in the world are you talking about? Stop your crying and put me back on ignore please. Then learn how to use a question mark.

Not sure if we can ignore a mod although some of us try

[cajunrevenge]

.481 and 46.2% right now.

How is it possible some of you are still fooled by rates like this after seeing numbers like these regress countless times now?


That's a losing battle. You can drag people to water but you can't make them drink.

[bravesfanMatt]

So does cheff have the power to ban himself if he thinks he crossed the line?

[Enscheff]

Who has said he won't regress? Some of just don't think he's gonna regress into a garbage player.

Halving his current BABIP and HR/FB numbers gets him into the realm of reasonable (.340 and 24%). Those more sustainable rates paired with his current peripherals would translate to a current slash line of about .231/.281/.462 (.742 OPS).

Riley probably isn't an MLB player with his current BB and K rates...nobody is.

I wonder how many folks will be surprised at the severity of Riley's regression if the BB and K rates don't improve?

[Enscheff]

So does cheff have the power to ban himself if he thinks he crossed the line?

Apparently I am a moderator of the Extented Spring Training section now. I would suggest just removing it since I won't ever use it and I'd rather not have to read folks whining about it.

[Super]

Riley is clearly going to regress big time and have some people ripping their hair out begging for him to sent back down/benched...he's going to need to keep making huge adjustments.

[bravesfanMatt]

Apparently I am a moderator of the Extented Spring Training section now. I would suggest just removing it since I won't ever use it and I'd rather not have to read folks whining about it.

I didn’t know it exsisted. Is that where Gohard is?

[msstate7]

Halving his current BABIP and HR/FB numbers gets him into the realm of reasonable (.340 and 24%). Those more sustainable rates paired with his current peripherals would translate to a current slash line of about .231/.281/.462 (.742 OPS).

Riley probably isn't an MLB player with his current BB and K rates...nobody is.

I wonder how many folks will be surprised at the severity of Riley's regression if the BB and K rates don't improve?

Perhaps your projection is correct... no idea, but I'm enjoying what he's doing. Perhaps as pitchers see Riley's crazy numbers he stops seeing so many balls in the zone and that helps his walk rate. All of the projections on fangraphs see his walk rate pretty much doubling and his k rate going down

[bravesfanMatt]

For the record I think Riley’s K and BB numbers are true products of SSS. Pitchers are challenging him and he is hitting thus not walking much. His K rate would be high as he still has to adjust to the pitchers being better. I expect both to float to a normal ~10% bb rate and 22-25 K rate. The next test for Riley is going t o see how he handles pitchers not throwing strike to him because they think he swings and misses too much. We might see an unusually high spike in walks if he handles it.

[msstate7]

The fb/hr rate for Riley is obviously inflated, but I do wonder what his normal rate will be with the new ball. I look at judge, and he never had a fb/hr rate above 20.3 in milb, but he's been 35.6, 29.0, and 35.7 in mlb. Riley was never above 21.4 in the minors before the new ball in AAA this season, and then all-the-sudden, he was 27.8 at AAA and he's at 46.2 in mlb. Again, I don't see any way he stays above 35.0, but could the difference in the ball potentially push him up to 30.0-34.0 range?

[Enscheff]

The fb/hr rate for Riley is obviously inflated, but I do wonder what his normal rate will be with the new ball. I look at judge, and he never had a fb/hr rate above 20.3 in milb, but he's been 35.6, 29.0, and 35.7 in mlb. Riley was never above 21.4 in the minors before the new ball in AAA this season, and then all-the-sudden, he was 27.8 at AAA and he's at 46.2 in mlb. Again, I don't see any way he stays above 35.0, but could the difference in the ball potentially push him up to 30.0-34.0 range?

No. You are severely overstating Riley's raw power talent.

As I pointed out earlier, Riley doesn't hit the ball as hard as JD or Acuna. Acuna's career HR/FB rate is 21.0%, and JD's is 18.4%. I would suggest Riley's true talent HR/FB rate is roughly in that range, and probably a tick lower.

[Enscheff]

Perhaps your projection is correct... no idea, but I'm enjoying what he's doing. Perhaps as pitchers see Riley's crazy numbers he stops seeing so many balls in the zone and that helps his walk rate. All of the projections on fangraphs see his walk rate pretty much doubling and his k rate going down

Riley isn't seeing many balls in the zone as is. His 40.0% Zone% would rank 128 out of 167 qualified batters.

He swings at pitches out of the zone about as often as Javy Baez, who only sees 35.2% of pitches in the zone (least in MLB).

If anything, Riley's current lack of plate discipline will lead to pitchers throwing him fewer strikes as the book on him grows. He will certainly have to improve his plate discipline to remain an MLB hitter...or go the way of Francoeur.

[msstate7]

No. You are severely overstating Riley's raw power talent.

As I pointed out earlier, Riley doesn't hit the ball as hard as JD or Acuna. Acuna's career HR/FB rate is 21.0%, and JD's is 18.4%. I would suggest Riley's true talent HR/FB rate is roughly in that range, and probably a tick lower.

Riley avg exit velocity is 94.3 in a really SSS, but it's all the sample we have right now. That would put him top 10 in mlb right now if he qualified. This obviously may not continue, but not sure why you say he doesn't hit the ball as hard as them. You may be using a different metric though

ETA... I think I get what you're saying bc I don't see Riley listed on the single ball exit velocity leader board

[nsacpi]

Riley avg exit velocity is 94.3 in a really SSS, but it's all the sample we have right now. That would put him top 10 in mlb right now if he qualified. This obviously may not continue, but not sure why you say he doesn't hit the ball as hard as them. You may be using a different metric though

ETA... I think I get what you're saying bc I don't see Riley listed on the single ball exit velocity leader board

a lot of things in this small sample will obviously not continue...but of all the stats in the sample, the K rate is the first to stabilize so I think its fair to focus on it a bit more than the other stats...but it too could change quite a bit

[Jaw]

a lot of things in this small sample will obviously not continue...but of all the stats in the sample, the K rate is the first to stabilize so I think its fair to focus on it a bit more than the other stats...but it too could change quite a bit

And so far it is alarming.

[bravesfanMatt]

a lot of things in this small sample will obviously not continue...but of all the stats in the sample, the K rate is the first to stabilize so I think its fair to focus on it a bit more than the other stats...but it too could change quite a bit

Yes but it is still too volatile to be precise. I can think of two calls in the Giants series where strike 3 was called that looked like ball 4. Take those 2 K outa d his rate drops by 5 % points.

And yes you can’t just start taking strikeouts away. I know that. But you can see that just 2 less strikeouts moves that needle way too much to be predictive. Let’s see where he is after 100 Pa.

[Runnin]

I don't know anything about Riley's K or zone % stats, only that his swing is so balanced and under control. Nothing about watching him hit reminds me of Jeff Francoeur. His swing and easy power looks more in the line of Pujols or Miguel Cabrera, imo. I'm not saying he's gonna ever be those guys, but man, he's got such a beautifully balanced, easy power swing for a rookie. I don't ever remember seeing a Braves rookie hitter this relaxed and self-assured at the plate. Francoeur and Heyward were spastic in comparison, swinging on pure adrenaline.

[Runnin]

If you got runs based on exit velocity, I think he could swing 10 or 15% harder. Whereas I don't think Acuna or Donaldson could generate much more bat speed.

[Enscheff]

Riley avg exit velocity is 94.3 in a really SSS, but it's all the sample we have right now. That would put him top 10 in mlb right now if he qualified. This obviously may not continue, but not sure why you say he doesn't hit the ball as hard as them. You may be using a different metric though

ETA... I think I get what you're saying bc I don't see Riley listed on the single ball exit velocity leader board

Talking raw power because max exit velocity is one of the first things to stabilize. Riley seems to top out around 110, while JD and Acuna have anther gear that can get to 110+.

Game power is raw power plus hit tool, and that is represented pretty well by average exit velocity on FB/LD, or possibly straight average exit velocity. It takes longer to stabilize, but if you think Riley’s hit tool that results in all these K issues is better than Acuna’s or JD’s, then that’s just an opinion we will have to disagree on...especially with Acuna.

HR/FB rates above about 25% usually belong to thebtruly elite power guys like Stanton, Judge or Gallo. Sometimes a guy like Yelich will go bonkers and post something 30%+. If you think Riley belongs with those hitters, then that’s another opinion we will have to disagree on. I’ll continue to project Riley in the low .300s BABIP and 20% or lower HR/FB.

[Enscheff]

If you got runs based on exit velocity, I think he could swing 10 or 15% harder. Whereas I don't think Acuna or Donaldson could generate much more bat speed.


This has to be the oddest attempt at quantifying something I’ve ever seen.

[Enscheff]

I don't know anything about Riley's K or zone % stats, only that his swing is so balanced and under control. Nothing about watching him hit reminds me of Jeff Francoeur. His swing and easy power looks more in the line of Pujols or Miguel Cabrera, imo. I'm not saying he's gonna ever be those guys, but man, he's got such a beautifully balanced, easy power swing for a rookie. I don't ever remember seeing a Braves rookie hitter this relaxed and self-assured at the plate. Francoeur and Heyward were spastic in comparison, swinging on pure adrenaline.

I hope you come back to give us your take on Riley after the all star break.

[Runnin]

I hope you come back to give us your take on Riley after the all star break.

I'll put it on my calender.

I know he's on an absurd hot streak now that won't last, but his swing and approach looks fundamentally solid to me. I'm as interested as anyone to see how he holds up over a long season.

[Enscheff]

I'll put it on my calender.

I know he's on an absurd hot streak now that won't last, but his swing and approach looks fundamentally solid to me. I'm as interested as anyone to see how he holds up over a long season.

I actually wish I had the resources to gather slow motion video from the side of players swinging, and could sync it up with the moment the pitcher released the ball.

I have this idea that the location of the knob of the bat could be tracked pre and post pitch release on takes and swings to determine things like:

1: exact depth of bat load
2: when the hands start/stop moving backwards in relation to pitch release
3: comparing takes vs swings to determine a batter's reaction time
4: exact time between initial forward movement and contact with ball

Gathering all that data on hitters would allow for determining if a slow/long swing is due to pre-pitch load (fixable), post-pitch load (fixable), physiological delay in pitch recognition (probably not fixable), or a lack of the fast twitch athleticism required to quickly swing the bat (perhaps fixable to some extent with specialized training).

[msstate7]

I'll put it on my calender.

I know he's on an absurd hot streak now that won't last, but his swing and approach looks fundamentally solid to me. I'm as interested as anyone to see how he holds up over a long season.

He has 106 games left. He avgs .5 hrs/game... that would be 53 more to make total 60. I think he'll slow down a little bit and end up with 58 for the year. Next season, he sets the all time record with 81

[GeorgiaGirl]

He has a 56.4% contact rate. That to me is scarier than the Ks, because I know that he’ll strike out, just hope it ends up settling in at 22-24%. It’ll be interesting on what it is at 100 PAs, but it’s clear that he’ll have to make some adjustments eventually. I also think he upped his upside though. Before this year I would’ve thought that he’d slash .250/.300/.460ish (maybe a bit higher on the slugging), now I think he can eventually slash something around .270/.350/.550.

[UNCBlue012]

He has a 56.4% contact rate. That to me is scarier than the Ks, because I know that he’ll strike out, just hope it ends up settling in at 22-24%. It’ll be interesting on what it is at 100 PAs, but it’s clear that he’ll have to make some adjustments eventually. I also think he upped his upside though. Before this year I would’ve thought that he’d slash .250/.300/.460ish (maybe a bit higher on the slugging), now I think he can eventually slash something around .270/.350/.550.

If he's a .270/.350/.550 hitter with 30 or so homers a year, we've hit the jackpot

[Southcack77]

If he's a .270/.350/.550 hitter with 30 or so homers a year, we've hit the jackpot

That's basically slightly lesser Josh Donaldson, so yeah. That would be very valuable in a minimum salary player.

[buck75]

He has 106 games left. He avgs .5 hrs/game... that would be 53 more to make total 60. I think he'll slow down a little bit and end up with 58 for the year. Next season, he sets the all time record with 81

I don’t see any reason he can’t hit a homer every other game for the rest of his career.

[Enscheff]

I don’t see any reason he can’t hit a homer every other game for the rest of his career.

That's before he hits the prime age around 27. By then it should be closer to 1 per game.

[Russ2dollas]

He has a 56.4% contact rate. That to me is scarier than the Ks, because I know that he’ll strike out, just hope it ends up settling in at 22-24%. It’ll be interesting on what it is at 100 PAs, but it’s clear that he’ll have to make some adjustments eventually. I also think he upped his upside though. Before this year I would’ve thought that he’d slash .250/.300/.460ish (maybe a bit higher on the slugging), now I think he can eventually slash something around .270/.350/.550.

That's a hell of a player.

I still think your original thought is more likely. I see a player who looks like a 250/300 hitter to me. The value is in the slugging. I don't think it's crazy to think he can slug around 500. An 800 OPS with average defense would be a big time player.

Hard for me to see a 350 OBP right now.

[AerchAngel]

We can save money and not resign JD.

[msstate7]

We can save money and not resign JD.

Let's see how this year plays out. Might stick with how we using both now

[GeorgiaGirl]

That's a hell of a player.

I still think your original thought is more likely. I see a player who looks like a 250/300 hitter to me. The value is in the slugging. I don't think it's crazy to think he can slug around 500. An 800 OPS with average defense would be a big time player.

Hard for me to see a 350 OBP right now.

Nah, I think he legit upped his upside from that this year if the adjustments stick for him. Yes before this year, he was likely a .250/.320/.480-.500 guy or roundabouts that, but I think he can do better now.

[AerchAngel]

Nah, I think he legit upped his upside from that this year if the adjustments stick for him. Yes before this year, he was likely a .250/.320/.480-.500 guy or roundabouts that, but I think he can do better now.

He has a very sweet swing, Troy Glaus like.

[Super]

That's a hell of a player.

I still think your original thought is more likely. I see a player who looks like a 250/300 hitter to me. The value is in the slugging. I don't think it's crazy to think he can slug around 500. An 800 OPS with average defense would be a big time player.

Hard for me to see a 350 OBP right now.

Riley will probably walk more than .250/.300 leads on considering his power and minor league walk rates.

[msstate7]

Espn ticker said Riley is 4th player in mlb history to hit 8 HRs in first 16 games. Any of you baseball trivia guys know the other 3?

[mqt]

Espn ticker said Riley is 4th player in mlb history to hit 8 HRs in first 16 games. Any of you baseball trivia guys know the other 3?

Story has to be one, I believe.

[drewdat]

Kevin Maas is apparently wrong, but he was fastest to 10 and 15 by ABs

[thethe]

Does Riley get to 30 home runs this year?

[CyYoung31]

Does Riley get to 30 home runs this year?

No.

[msstate7]

Does Riley get to 30 home runs this year?

Will he play 60 games? If so, yes

[Tapate50]

Will he play 60 games? If so, yes

Hilarious

[thewupk]

No.

Just like Ozzie couldn't get to 20...

[thewupk]

Nah, I think he legit upped his upside from that this year if the adjustments stick for him. Yes before this year, he was likely a .250/.320/.480-.500 guy or roundabouts that, but I think he can do better now.

I think his SLg upside has certainly improved. His raw power is certainly translating to game power now. That can have an effect on his walk rate too if he is selective enough. Teams pitch big time sluggers like that differently and it will be up to him to be more selective.

[CyYoung31]

Just like Ozzie couldn't get to 20...

Let me put it this way, if Riley hits 30 HR this year and everything else stays the same, the Braves are going to the playoffs.

[TheBravos]

Let me put it this way, if Riley hits 30 HR this year and everything else stays the same, the Braves are going to the playoffs.

What if he hits 50?

[CyYoung31]

What if he hits 50?

Braves will get a bye through the NLCS.

[thewupk]

Braves will get a bye through the NLCS.

What if he breaks Bonds record?

[CyYoung31]

What if he breaks Bonds record?

He’ll never make it to Cooperstown.

[AerchAngel]

When Dale Murphy came up he was a bad catcher then 1b and then moved to the outfield, but the thing this younger generation did not know, he change his hitting style. He was a pull hitter but a lot of his homer when he stop striking out a lot was to right field, he wore it out. Yes he will go to left center, I think he broke some Dodger pitcher record of scoreless innings. Murphy was taller than Riley, but I think Riley is stronger. He muscled a NASTY slider the other way, even the pitcher said that was his out pitch and the hitter was better.

Keep working your approaching the league is going to go inside on you, that is your weak side, like they do Acuna and Freeman. Swanson and Donaldson you will be punished, they love them.

[bravesfanMatt]

I will agree that slider was a legit pitch. It was up but the break was nasty.

[AerchAngel]

I've been a fan for 45 years.

My dad would take me to Chicago to see the Braves specifically when they were in town and also the Cardinals.

Aaron, Burroughs, Murphy, Horner, I seen them all.

But you have Office, Washington, Benedict, Asselstine, Komminsk and Pocoroba as well.

[AerchAngel]

I will agree that slider was a legit pitch. It was up but the break was nasty.

Just imagine if did not spin, it would be another 420 plus homer in the left center bleachers.

[Super]

Riley seems to have the drive/intelligence to make real, important adjustments, even if they're not super quick. while his performance is unsustainable and he's in for some not-so-fun times, he certainly looks like he'll be a legit impact player.

[Jaw]

Does Riley get to 30 home runs this year?

He already has more than "Bringer of Rain" Donaldson, so obviously yes.

[Enscheff]

Back of the napkin calcs...

400 more PAs, times 60% balls in play (non BB/K), times 40% FB rate, times 20% HR per FB = ~19 HRs the rest of the season. Add the 9 he already has in the bag, and 30 isn't a crazy end of season total at all. It's probably where I would set the over/under for an interesting bet.

400 more PAs, times 60% balls in play (non BB/K), minus those 19 HRs, times .320 BABIP = ~71 more non-HR hits the rest of the season. Split those hits up at a roughly 2:1 ratio of 1B:2B (likely way too many doubles), and that's ~47 more singles and ~24 more doubles.

400 more PAs, times 6% BB rate = ~24 more BBs, bringing the AB total to ~376.

Add all that up, and the rest of season batting line for Riley based on his peripherals is: .239/.286/.455 (.741 OPS) with 19 HRs.

Add that to what he's done so far, and his overall season line projects as roughly: .253/.297/.499 (.796 OPS) with 28 HRs.

His peripherals obviously aren't set in stone at the MLB level after 70 PAs, so I'm going to assume he keeps improving the K/BB rates a bit. I'll take the over on the BA/OBP and the under on the SLG (napkin calcs gave way too many doubles).

Final line: .260/.310/.480 (.790 OPS) with 26 HRs

[UNCBlue012]

Back of the napkin calcs...

400 more PAs, times 60% balls in play (non BB/K), times 40% FB rate, times 20% HR per FB = ~19 HRs the rest of the season. Add the 9 he already has in the bag, and 30 isn't a crazy end of season total at all. It's probably where I would set the over/under for an interesting bet.

400 more PAs, times 60% balls in play (non BB/K), minus those 19 HRs, times .320 BABIP = ~71 more non-HR hits the rest of the season. Split those hits up at a roughly 2:1 ratio of 1B:2B (likely way too many doubles), and that's ~47 more singles and ~24 more doubles.

400 more PAs, times 6% BB rate = ~24 more BBs, bringing the AB total to ~376.

Add all that up, and the rest of season batting line for Riley based on his peripherals is: .239/.286/.455 (.741 OPS) with 19 HRs.

Add that to what he's done so far, and his overall season line projects as roughly: .253/.297/.499 (.796 OPS) with 28 HRs.

His peripherals obviously aren't set in stone at the MLB level after 70 PAs, so I'm going to assume he keeps improving the K/BB rates a bit, and I'll take the over on the BA/OBP and the under on the SLG.

Final line: .260/.310/.480 (.790 OPS) with 26 HRs

You're a damn wizard and it freaks me out, but I think that line is likely where we'll see him sit as well. If he could add .10-20 to his AVG and .20-30 his OBP, he'd be a monster.

[AerchAngel]

You're a damn wizard and it freaks me out, but I think that line is likely where we'll see him sit as well. If he could add .10-20 to his AVG and .20-30 his OBP, he'd be a monster.

He's I think is an analyst (programmer) and the Braves should hire him.

He knows about more than about 95% of them.

[AerchAngel]

Back of the napkin calcs...

400 more PAs, times 60% balls in play (non BB/K), times 40% FB rate, times 20% HR per FB = ~19 HRs the rest of the season. Add the 9 he already has in the bag, and 30 isn't a crazy end of season total at all. It's probably where I would set the over/under for an interesting bet.

400 more PAs, times 60% balls in play (non BB/K), minus those 19 HRs, times .320 BABIP = ~71 more non-HR hits the rest of the season. Split those hits up at a roughly 2:1 ratio of 1B:2B (likely way too many doubles), and that's ~47 more singles and ~24 more doubles.

400 more PAs, times 6% BB rate = ~24 more BBs, bringing the AB total to ~376.

Add all that up, and the rest of season batting line for Riley based on his peripherals is: .239/.286/.455 (.741 OPS) with 19 HRs.

Add that to what he's done so far, and his overall season line projects as roughly: .253/.297/.499 (.796 OPS) with 28 HRs.

His peripherals obviously aren't set in stone at the MLB level after 70 PAs, so I'm going to assume he keeps improving the K/BB rates a bit. I'll take the over on the BA/OBP and the under on the SLG (napkin calcs gave way too many doubles).

Final line: .260/.310/.480 (.790 OPS) with 26 HRs

If the Final line is that, he would win ROY unless Soroka continue his insane pitching, which I hope continues.

[AerchAngel]

We have 23 mil available next year.

We know this now. Unless he drastically tank. I don't think he will, he is adjusting.

He will go the other way and we seen this on several homers and doubles, no shifts.

[msstate7]

If the Final line is that, he would win ROY unless Soroka continue his insane pitching, which I hope continues.

Alonso, brah

[AerchAngel]

When he adjust a Troy Glaus lite.

30 to 40 homer hitter every year, around .260 to .280 avg and about 140 to 160 strikeouts.

Dr. Scheff could confirm this or alter it, he is better than in this but I think he would agree with me.

[AerchAngel]

Alonso, brah

He got a head start.

I think Riley will catch him.

[Russ2dollas]

Back of the napkin calcs...

400 more PAs, times 60% balls in play (non BB/K), times 40% FB rate, times 20% HR per FB = ~19 HRs the rest of the season. Add the 9 he already has in the bag, and 30 isn't a crazy end of season total at all. It's probably where I would set the over/under for an interesting bet.

400 more PAs, times 60% balls in play (non BB/K), minus those 19 HRs, times .320 BABIP = ~71 more non-HR hits the rest of the season. Split those hits up at a roughly 2:1 ratio of 1B:2B (likely way too many doubles), and that's ~47 more singles and ~24 more doubles.

400 more PAs, times 6% BB rate = ~24 more BBs, bringing the AB total to ~376.

Add all that up, and the rest of season batting line for Riley based on his peripherals is: .239/.286/.455 (.741 OPS) with 19 HRs.

Add that to what he's done so far, and his overall season line projects as roughly: .253/.297/.499 (.796 OPS) with 28 HRs.

His peripherals obviously aren't set in stone at the MLB level after 70 PAs, so I'm going to assume he keeps improving the K/BB rates a bit. I'll take the over on the BA/OBP and the under on the SLG (napkin calcs gave way too many doubles).

Final line: .260/.310/.480 (.790 OPS) with 26 HRs

Love these posts.
I think most of us had him at 250/300/450-500.

That makes sense. I think his history of improvement suggests that maybe he can grow into 270/333/500.

But for now 750-800 ops seems right. Need to get the walks up and the ks way down.

I’d like to see more of him at 3b for curiosity. Not advocating benching jd

[AerchAngel]

Love these posts.
I think most of us had him at 250/300/450-500.

That makes sense. I think his history of improvement suggests that maybe he can grow into 270/333/500.

But for now 750-800 ops seems right. Need to get the walks up and the ks way down.

I’d like to see more of him at 3b for curiosity. Not advocating benching jd

Jd is not going to bench but days off and Riley gets some reps there.

But you are right on all the other stuff.

I am waiting while Encheff does the numbers what it the potential of him.

I am thinking Horner and Glaus type of numbers, the dude is really strong and I know he fisted off some balls for singles, they are going to go inside and high on him and hope he chase. He is going to kill everything else.

[AerchAngel]

If I was a pitcher, I would go high and inside in the box on him every time, that is his weak spot.

[bravesfanMatt]

I am sensing Riley will feast these next to games against Pitt. Feeling two more blowouts unfortunately for Pitt.

[AerchAngel]

They make a mistake, it will be in the seats.

He reminds me of Bob Horner.

Really.

Horner was quick and compact swing but he pulled everything. Riley is like Horner and Murphy combined, he hit mistakes outside.

Enscheff can confirm this.

[bravesfanforlife88]

Craig Mish
@CraigMish
Austin Riley was sent from another planet to play for the Atlanta Braves and dominate the universe.

If you ever have time to go back and ready through his tweets from Riley’s call up, it is pretty funny. You can tell he really wanted the Marlins to get him for JTr

[thewupk]

Craig Mish
@CraigMish
Austin Riley was sent from another planet to play for the Atlanta Braves and dominate the universe.

If you ever have time to go back and ready through his tweets from Riley’s call up, it is pretty funny. You can tell he really wanted the Marlins to get him for JTr

I bet the Fish are wishing they took that deal now too

[Enscheff]

When he adjust a Troy Glaus lite.

30 to 40 homer hitter every year, around .260 to .280 avg and about 140 to 160 strikeouts.

Dr. Scheff could confirm this or alter it, he is better than in this but I think he would agree with me.

I don’t even try to predict skill growth. We’ve seen Acuna improve leaps and bounds in the plate discipline area over the course of weeks. We’ve seen Albies be much slower in making similar adjustments. Riley currently has a significant issue swinging at bad pitches, and missing pitches in the zone.

Riley could certainly go down the classic slugger path where he improves his plate discipline as pitchers start fearing him. Or he could stay aggressive like a Francoeur or Baez and never really improve. Since he doesn’t appear to have the quick bat like Baez, he is more likely to end up as the next Francoeur if he doesn’t improve his approach.

The most likely outcome is what he’s been projected as the whole time: a low OBP guy who hits 25-30 bombs and Ks a lot, and will play just enough defense not to be a huge negative in the field, resulting in a 2+ win player. A nice slugger in 5/6 spot in the lineup. Jake Lamb from the right side.

[Carp]

Nick Castellanos with more power and better defense may be a good comp. Like Enscheff says, that'd make him a 2ish WAR player depending on how good his defense is. If he can be an upper echelon defensive 3b, you may be looking at a 3-4 WAR player.

[Super]

Nick Castellanos with more power and better defense may be a good comp. Like Enscheff says, that'd make him a 2ish WAR player depending on how good his defense is. If he can be an upper echelon defensive 3b, you may be looking at a 3-4 WAR player.

i don't think he'll ever be an upper-echelon defensive player, but i think his bat could improve a good bit and be better than is being projected. he's been a good bit younger than Lamb at every stop and has been about as good or better, and while it was SSS, improved in all key areas in AAA before being called up.

[Carp]

i don't think he'll ever be an upper-echelon defensive player, but i think his bat could improve a good bit and be better than is being projected. he's been a good bit younger than Lamb at every stop and has been about as good or better, and while it was SSS, improved in all key areas in AAA before being called up.

I mean upper-echelon defensive player like top 5 or so among current 3b, not among all defensive players. Granted he's only played 2 games at 3b, but he made a couple of impressive plays in those games and has a great arm. Also, to have never played LF, he plays it pretty competently. I think there's a decent chance he could be Donaldson or Clint Frazier level defensively over there.

[AerchAngel]

I don’t even try to predict skill growth. We’ve seen Acuna improve leaps and bounds in the plate discipline area over the course of weeks. We’ve seen Albies be much slower in making similar adjustments. Riley currently has a significant issue swinging at bad pitches, and missing pitches in the zone.

Riley could certainly go down the classic slugger path where he improves his plate discipline as pitchers start fearing him. Or he could stay aggressive like a Francoeur or Baez and never really improve. Since he doesn’t appear to have the quick bat like Baez, he is more likely to end up as the next Francoeur if he doesn’t improve his approach.

The most likely outcome is what he’s been projected as the whole time: a low OBP guy who hits 25-30 bombs and Ks a lot, and will play just enough defense not to be a huge negative in the field, resulting in a 2+ win player. A nice slugger in 5/6 spot in the lineup. Jake Lamb from the right side.

Thanks for weighing in. He is already feared.

I agree on most things you said but he will hit more than 30 homers a year if he is full time 3B, you are right on the things unless he adjusts.

Troy Glaus with better speed.

[Enscheff]

Thanks for weighing in. He is already feared.

I agree on most things you said but he will hit more than 30 homers a year if he is full time 3B, you are right on the things unless he adjusts.

Troy Glaus with better speed.

Glaus had a career O-Swing% of 17.4%, topping out at 23.2% in the last year of his career. Riley's current O-Swing% is 38.2%. That would put him in the Top 25 of 166 qualified MLB players. Riley swings at pitches out of the zone waaaaay more than Glaus ever did, even when he was washed up.

Glaus had a career Z-Contact% of 80.9%, bottoming out at 78.0%. Riley's current Z-Contact% is 67.4%, which is worse than any other qaulified MLB hitter in 2019. Glaus made waaaaaay more contact when he swung the bat at strikes.

I don't see any similarities between Glaus and Riley other than the fact both are RHH 3B with good power. Glaus had a significantly better hit tool and plate discipline than anything Riley has shown as a professional.

[thethe]

Id be more interesting in rolling O-Swing percentages for Riley and see where that is trending. It may end up yielding evem worse results.

[AerchAngel]

He will adjust.

z percentage is zone batting contact? I am lost there.

He is like Vlad I guess in what you are saying and need to adjust.

[Tapate50]

That pitch he hit out to RF was 4 inches off the dish. Need to spit on that, but he still hit it 390

[atl717]

He's making more contact lately. No reason why he can't eventually settle in as a guy who strikes out in the low 20s percentage wise. He has shown the ability to adjust in the minors.

[Enscheff]

Where did all the posters go that were crowing about Riley's success?

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=18360&position=OF&statArr=50,34,35&legend=1,2,3&split=base&time=game&ymin=&ymax=&start=2019&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=

The yellow and red lines are the predictive stats that describe actual skills. Notice they remained mostly flat?

The blue line is the stat that was being propped up by pure luck. Notice that line is plummeting?

What will be the next completely unsustainable performance that fools folks into ignorantly defending the numbers against folks who actually know what they are talking about?

[Orphan Black]

Where did all the posters go that were crowing about Riley's success?

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=18360&position=OF&statArr=50,34,35&legend=1,2,3&split=base&time=game&ymin=&ymax=&start=2019&end=2019&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=

The yellow and red lines are the predictive stats that describe actual skills. Notice they remained mostly flat?

The blue line is the stat that was being propped up by pure luck. Notice that line is plummeting?

What will be the next completely unsustainable performance that fools folks into ignorantly defending the numbers against folks who actually know what they are talking about?

Using a small sample size to slam other people who were using a small sample size. Yeah you're not a hypocrite.

[Super]

Using a small sample size to slam other people who were using a small sample size. Yeah you're not a hypocrite.

that's not what's happening here. come on.

[Enscheff]

Using a small sample size to slam other people who were using a small sample size. Yeah you're not a hypocrite.

103 PAs is right where this stuff starts to stabilize.

Notice everything isn't looking so great as we near the point of stabilization?

Do you understand what "small sample size" means?

[atl717]

Well yeah he's not an elite player now. But he's adjusted at every level he's been at. It will take time. What's undeniable is he's another threat in the lineup that can hurt you. The strikeouts will come down some and the walks will go up.

[Orphan Black]

that's not what's happening here. come on.

That's exactly what is happening...he goes on a cold spell and now Enscheff is calling out the people who were praising him.

[Orphan Black]

103 PAs is right where this stuff starts to stabilize.

Notice everything isn't looking so great as we near the point of stabilization?

Do you understand what "small sample size" means?

Yes. You don't seem to understand what it means. Still can't believe you got modded. I really hate reading your garbage.

[DontStopTheChop]

Yes. You don't seem to understand what it means. Still can't believe you got modded. I really hate reading your garbage.

What isn't being understood here? Do you think the "real" Austin Riley is a .400 hitter? Please enlighten us on your theory so we'll understand.

100 PA is where stats start to normalize. Thousands of players have been analyzed by statisticians and they've noted that 100 PA is when you can tell what is real and what isn't real. Austin Riley has now reached 100 PA.

Do you have some research to share that says otherwise? If so, please share. Otherwise, calling another poster garbage for posting research that backs up his point is...... garbage. I admit that I often question Enscheff's approach but hardly do I find myself questioning the accuracy of his posts.

[Super]

That's exactly what is happening...he goes on a cold spell and now Enscheff is calling out the people who were praising him.

it's not tho.
his unsustainable/"lucky" numbers are coming down to where his true talent numbers/skills say they should have been. this is over the season to this point.
read through the (agreed!) douchiness of these sentences:

"The yellow and red lines are the predictive stats that describe actual skills. Notice they remained mostly flat?

The blue line is the stat that was being propped up by pure luck. Notice that line is plummeting?"

Riley was never going to continue to hit a HR on 50% of his fly balls. once stuff like that stopped happening, the rest of his numbers took a tumble. they are very likely to continue to fall further.
if only the sample AFTER his insane hot streak were being used, you'd have a point and be right. that's not what that graph displays. the graph displays the full season of the relevant stats. it shows some stats remaining basically the same throughout, and the unsustainable stats, as expected, tumbling down...over the full season, not just over a small sample.

[Super]

What isn't being understood here? Do you think the "real" Austin Riley is a .400 hitter? 100 PA is where stats start to normalize. Thousands of players have been analyzed by statisticians and they've noted that 100 PA is when you can tell what is real and what isn't real.

Do you have some research to share that says otherwise? If so, please share. Otherwise, calling another poster garbage for posting research that backs up his point is...... garbage. I admit that I often question Enscheff's approach but hardly do I find myself questioning the accuracy of his posts.

i think he's not getting that the graphs display the full season for Riley. it's not using his recent cold stretch as a counter to his hot stretch. it's showing the rolling averages of the full season, which includes both the hot and the cold, the unsustainable and the more "true", legitimate rates (BB, K).

[Carp]

Well yeah he's not an elite player now. But he's adjusted at every level he's been at. It will take time. What's undeniable is he's another threat in the lineup that can hurt you. The strikeouts will come down some and the walks will go up.

It isn't a given that either of those will happen. He has a minor league career K rate of 25%. His current K rate is 33%. He has a minor BB rate of 8%. His current walk rate is 3.9%. Then you have to adjust for the jump in difficulty from the minors to the majors. It's likely Riley's K rate and BB rate stay fairly similar to what they are now (at least for this season). May be he improves them slightly, but I wouldn't bet on a large improvement from either one for the remainder of the year.

[Enscheff]

Yes. You don't seem to understand what it means. Still can't believe you got modded. I really hate reading your garbage.

I love reading your brilliant contributions to the board.

Thanks for being such a valued member!

[nsacpi]

It isn't a given that either of those will happen. He has a minor league career K rate of 25%. His current K rate is 33%. He has a minor BB rate of 8%. His current walk rate is 3.9%. Then you have to adjust for the jump in difficulty from the minors to the majors. It's likely Riley's K rate and BB rate stay fairly similar to what they are now (at least for this season). May be he improves them slightly, but I wouldn't bet on a large improvement from either one for the remainder of the year.

He should be able to bring that K rate down to around 25%. Maybe not this year but within a year or two. Part of the natural improvement of a young hitter. With his power, he can be a productive player with a 25% K rate. Not so sure with a 30% K rate. The hot start obscured some things about his game that are becoming more clear.

[Enscheff]

He should be able to bring that K rate down to around 25%. Maybe not this year but within a year or two. Part of the natural improvement of a young hitter. With his power, he can be a productive player with a 25% K rate. Not so sure with a 30% K rate. The hot start obscured some things about his game that are becoming more clear.

There are things about Riley that are more worrisome than "he's a young hitter". As I detailed before...

O-Swing% = 40.9%. That would rank 13th worst of 162 qualified hitters. Riley swings at way too many bad pitches, which is something you could chalk up to being a young hitter who needs to learn a bit of patience...but...

The real problem is...

Z-Contact% = 69.9%. That would be dead last among all 162 qualified hitters, by a comfortable margin. Riley swings and misses pitches in the zone more frequently than any other qualified MLB hitter. Going back a few seasons, I can't find a single qualified hitter with a contact rate on pitches in the zone that low. MLB hitters literally never get away with that much swing and miss while keeping a job at the MLB level long enough to be considered an "everyday player".

So Riley is a guy who swings at a lot of bad pitches, and misses a lot of the good pitches he does swing at. To me, that suggests he's a guy who is guessing due to some part of his swing taking too long, and when he guesses wrong he can't make contact.

I'm certainly not a hitting coach, but these plate discipline stats are very worrisome, and I'm not sure they are the kinds of things that can be easily corrected. How do you fix an issue with making contact with strikes? Everything I know about scouting the hit tool (not much) suggests that is a natural skill, not a learned skill.

[nsacpi]

Joey Gallo is a comp that has come to mind for Riley. He had a z-contact % of 60% in 2015 and 2016 in a total of 153 PAs. Those were his age 21 & 22 seasons. The next season (his first full season) he brought it up to 72%. I think Riley will always have a fair amount of swing and miss to his game. He's had a very flukish start, including home run rates and swinging strikes.

[Enscheff]

Joey Gallo is a comp that has come to mind for Riley. He had a z-contact % of 60% in 2015 and 2016 in a total of 153 PAs. Those were his age 21 & 22 seasons. The next season (his first full season) he brought it up to 72%. I think Riley will always have a fair amount of swing and miss to his game. He's had a very flukish start, including home run rates and swinging strikes.

You are correct, Gallo's hit tool is a pretty good comp for Riley considering it is the current worst hit tool in the game.

The glaring differences between Gallo and Riley are fairly substantial...

Gallo has a career 14.3% BB rate to help compensate, and posted very similar walk rates at all MiLB levels. Riley may not even walk half that often.

Gallo has the highest average LD/FB exit velocity in MLB over the last 3 years at 99.9 mph. He has legit 80 grade power that translates to a legit 30% HR/FB rate. Riley is closer to 65 grade power, and can probably support a HR/FB rate at or just below 20%.

Add up everything Gallo is, and he's a ~3 win player, maybe 1-2 wins better in his career year (understanding his 2019 BABIP of .385 is a fluke).

So if someone wants to say Riley is Gallo with half the walks and 2/3 the HR/FB rate, sure, I can buy that. That's pretty much Jake Lamb...which is the comp I've had on Riley all along.

[nsacpi]

You are correct, Gallo's hit tool is a pretty good comp for Riley considering it is the current worst hit tool in the game.

The glaring differences between Gallo and Riley are...

Gallo has a career 14.3% BB rate to help compensate, and posted very similar walk rates at all MiLB levels. Riley may not even walk half that often.

Gallo has the highest average LD/FB exit velocity in MLB over the last 3 years at 99.9 mph. He has legit 80 grade power that translates to a legit 30% HR/FB rate. Riley is closer to 65 grade power, and can probably support a HR/FB rate at or just below 20%.

Add up everything Gallo is, and he's a ~3 win player, maybe 1-2 wins better in his career year (understanding his 2019 BABIP of .385 is a fluke).

So if someone wants to say Riley is Gallo with half the walks and 2/3 the HR/FB rate, sure, I can buy that. That's pretty much Jake Lamb...which is the comp I've had on Riley all along.

They are not exact comps. Gallo walks more and has more power and showed this in the minors. Otoh Riley has better minor league strikeout numbers. I don't think he will strike out as much as Gallo in the majors.

I would expect them to differ in these ways in their prime seasons: Gallo 40-45 HRs, Riley 30-35. Gallo walk rate 15%, Riley 8%. Gallo K rate 35%, Riley 25%.

Riley looks like less of a dead pull hitter and might not be as susceptible to the shift. Being RHH as opposed to Gallo being LHH also makes him less susceptible to the shift. So maybe Riley ends up with the higher BABIP.

[Enscheff]

They are not exact comps. Gallo walks more and has more power and showed this in the minors. Otoh Riley has better minor league strikeout numbers. I don't think he will strike out as much as Gallo in the majors.

I would expect them to differ in these ways in their prime seasons: Gallo 40-45 HRs, Riley 30-35. Gallo walk rate 15%, Riley 8%. Gallo K rate 35%, Riley 25%.

Riley looks like less of a dead pull hitter and might not be as susceptible to the shift. Being RHH as opposed to Gallo being LHH also makes him less susceptible to the shift. So maybe Riley ends up with the higher BABIP.

You realize you literally just described 2016/2017 Jake Lamb with fewer BBs, right?

The same Jake Lamb who was worth 2.4 and 2.5 wins in those seasons.

Cut 3%-5% off Lamb's BB rate and you are left with a .240/.310/.480 player producing less than 2 wins.

That is exactly what I've projected Riley to be for years now...

[nsacpi]

Relative to Lamb, Riley should walk less but have more power. Lamb's value has been held down by his defense. I suspect Riley will turn out to be the better defender of the two at third. And more recently Lamb's value has been held down by his inability to stay healthy. Lamb has a career BABIP of .302. Prime Riley should be a bit higher.

[Enscheff]

Relative to Lamb, Riley should walk less but have more power. Lamb's value has been held down by his defense. I suspect Riley will turn out to be the better defender of the two at third. And more recently Lamb's value has been held down by his inability to stay healthy. Lamb has a career BABIP of .302. Prime Riley should be a bit higher.

Again, what data points to Riley having more power?

Lamb has demonstrated a bit more absolute raw power: 111.6 mph max exit velocity for Lamb vs 110.9 for Riley.

Peak 2016 Lamb demonstrated more game power: 96.1 mph average exit velocity for Lamb vs 93.4 for Riley.

Nearly peak Lamb demonstrated very similar game power to Riley: 93.0 mph average exit velocity.

I see zero data that suggests Riley has more raw or game power than Lamb when he was at his ~2.5 win peak. If anything, Riley has a bit less power than peak Lamb, as was stated years ago.

So yeah...Jake lamb with less BBs and a hair less power is a good comp for Riley.

[nsacpi]

Again, what data points to Riley having more power?

Lamb has demonstrated a bit more absolute raw power: 111.6 mph max exit velocity for Lamb vs 110.9 for Riley.

Peak 2016 Lamb demonstrated more game power: 96.1 mph average exit velocity for Lamb vs 93.4 for Riley.

Nearly peak Lamb demonstrated very similar game power to Riley: 93.0 mph average exit velocity.

I see zero data that suggests Riley has more raw or game power than Lamb when he was at his ~2.5 win peak. If anything, Riley has a bit less power than peak Lamb, as was stated years ago.

I don't think we have seen Riley's max exit velocity. Lamb was drafted as a college player and was a bit older by the time he reached the majors. To me Riley is still a raw young player who has just had a very hot/lucky streak to start his career. But his age and minor league record point to a fairly good chance of success. I would be willing to bet his two best seasons exceed Lamb's two best seasons.

[AerchAngel]

Dr. Scheff again with the data points.

It is almost impossible to disprove him.

[Enscheff]

I don't think we have seen Riley's max exit velocity. Lamb was drafted as a college player and was a bit older by the time he reached the majors. To me Riley is still a raw young player who has just had a very hot/lucky streak to start his career. But his age and minor league record point to a fairly good chance of success. I would be willing to bet his two best seasons exceed Lamb's two best seasons.

While I agree Riley is not a finished product, max exit velocities are a lot like FA velocity and typically decline immediately.

Riley will almost certainly improve his plate discipline numbers, and by extension is K and BB numbers. I wouldn't bet on him improving his exit velocities much, if at all.

I could definitely see Riley streak his way to a 3 win season that's better than anything Lamb has done (his first 50 PAs may have positioned him to beat 2.5 wins this year), but that doesn't make him appreciably better.

[Tapate50]

That first AB vs Archer was awful. Swung at the first 5 pitches or more and watched a center cut FB (low) for strike 3.

[Russ2dollas]

Still looks like the 250/300/500 hitter I thought he was.

Still curious on the d at third.

He had shown the ability at each level to adjust and grow. I like how he talks the game. I think there could be more obp and maybe a tad more avg.

[The Chosen One]

At this point Riley should be apologizing to us

[bravesfanMatt]

At this point Riley should be apologizing to us

He swung by but missed us.

[nsacpi]

Duvall might be able to help us more at this point.

[Enscheff]

We identified a RHH OFer as a need before the season started. They tried to fill that spot with Duvall, Camargo and now Riley.

RHH OFer might be on the shopping list at the deadline just below a BP arm.

[msstate7]

We identified a RHH OFer as a need before the season started. They tried to fill that spot with Duvall, Camargo and now Riley.

RHH OFer might be on the shopping list at the deadline just below a BP arm.

You buying hunter pence as real?

[Tapate50]

He’s good again.

[Carp]

He should be able to bring that K rate down to around 25%. Maybe not this year but within a year or two. Part of the natural improvement of a young hitter. With his power, he can be a productive player with a 25% K rate. Not so sure with a 30% K rate. The hot start obscured some things about his game that are becoming more clear.

Sure. My point was more aimed toward this season. It's really hard to predict how players will adjust and improve over the years, especially very young players like Riley. But I feel pretty confident the K rate and BB rate aren't likely to see dramatic improvement over the rest of 2019. Maybe 2-3 percent at most.

[Carp]

He swung by but missed us.

I chuckled.

[Carp]

We identified a RHH OFer as a need before the season started. They tried to fill that spot with Duvall, Camargo and now Riley.

RHH OFer might be on the shopping list at the deadline just below a BP arm.

I'd like to see Duvall first. May be he's figured it out in Gwinnett. If he can be the player he was pre-2018, he'd be a huge boost.

[Southcack77]

Ozuna, Domingo Santana, Soler are viable targets.

Another guy we talked about, Frazier, has murdered RHs.

[Slippyjms]

I think we need to see if Riley can adjust to the league adjusting and then get a better look at our own internal OF options before looking outside the organization. We’re going to be feeling a roster crunch as is when Ender comes back.

[Enscheff]

You buying hunter pence as real?

Probably not this real, but as a part time player...sure.

[zbhargrove]

Its almost like our concerns in the underlying statistics are coming true... imagine that. Now let's how quick/if he can adjust.

[nsacpi]

May vs June numbers:

BABIP: .452 vs .200
ISO: .390 vs .167
K Rate: 33.3 vs 34.1
BB Rate: 4.8 vs 2.3

Regression came fast. What the BABIP gods giveth the BABIP gods taketh away.

Matt Joyce in left field tonight?

[bravesfanMatt]

May vs June numbers:

BABIP: .452 vs .200
ISO: .390 vs .167
K Rate: 33.3 vs 34.1
BB Rate: 4.8 vs 2.3

Regression came fast. What the BABIP gods giveth the BABIP gods taketh away.

Matt Joyce in left field tonight?

I would consider resting him but not because of those numbers. I liked his approach his last two at bats. The ball got deeper to him and he swung at pitches and not at guesses. I would like him continue to adjust and work through this. That said we all know how I feel about rest and would not hesitate sitting him to get a bench guy in the game.

[Tapate50]

Its almost like our concerns in the underlying statistics are coming true... imagine that. Now let's how quick/if he can adjust.

Contrary to popular opinion, no one was saying any differently.

[bravesfanMatt]

Contrary to popular opinion, no one was saying any differently.

I personally thought he was going to hit .400 with 77 homers. But I might need to rethink that projection.

[Enscheff]

May vs June numbers:

BABIP: .452 vs .200
ISO: .390 vs .167
K Rate: 33.3 vs 34.1
BB Rate: 4.8 vs 2.3

Regression came fast. What the BABIP gods giveth the BABIP gods taketh away.

Matt Joyce in left field tonight?

HR/FB%: 46.7% vs 15.4%

He obviously won't sustain the .200 BABIP any more than he was going to sustain .452, but the other numbers aren't that flukey.

Until/unless Riley makes whatever adjustment is needed to correct those K/BB numbers that were terrible even when he was getting lucky, he will be a fringe MLB player.

His severe problem with swinging and missing pitches in the zone is very worrisome, and I'm not sure if that aspect of the hit tool is something that can be fixed.

[Tapate50]

I think some folks may need to check their opinions at the door, ya boys 2/2 2nite!

[Tapate50]

Bombs away

[Enscheff]

I think some folks may need to check their opinions at the door, ya boys 2/2 2nite!

Or we can continue to look at the actual data...

If everyone agrees that Riley's main issues are swinging at bad pitches (O-Swing%) and missing pitches in the zone (Z-Contact%), we should be hoping those stats improve.

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=18360&position=OF&statArr=39,102,106&legend=1,2,3&split=base&time=game&ymin=&ymax=&start=2019&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=

Everyone sees what they want to see in charts like these, but I see his Z-Contact% fluctuating around 73%, his O-Swing% fluctuating around 40%, and his OPS leveling off around .750-.800 as the luck faded.

That would be the worst Z-Contact%, and bottom 10 O-Swing% among all 156 qualified MLB hitters.

There are serious red flags with Riley, and hopefully he can continue making adjustments to fix these issues.

[Tapate50]

Or we can continue to look at the actual data...

If everyone agrees that Riley's main issues are swinging at bad pitches (O-Swing%) and missing pitches in the zone (Z-Contact%), we should be hoping those stats improve.

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=18360&position=OF&statArr=39,102,106&legend=1,2,3&split=base&time=game&ymin=&ymax=&start=2019&end=2019&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=

Everyone sees what they want to see in charts like these, but I see his Z-Contact% fluctuating around 73%, his O-Swing% fluctuating around 40%, and his OPS leveling off around .750-.800 as the luck faded.

That would be the worst Z-Contact%, and bottom 10 O-Swing% among all 156 qualified MLB hitters.

There are serious red flags with Riley, and hopefully he can continue making adjustments to fix these issues.

Yeesh. Tough crowd.

[Russ2dollas]

Or we can continue to look at the actual data...

If everyone agrees that Riley's main issues are swinging at bad pitches (O-Swing%) and missing pitches in the zone (Z-Contact%), we should be hoping those stats improve.

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=18360&position=OF&statArr=39,102,106&legend=1,2,3&split=base&time=game&ymin=&ymax=&start=2019&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=

Everyone sees what they want to see in charts like these, but I see his Z-Contact% fluctuating around 73%, his O-Swing% fluctuating around 40%, and his OPS leveling off around .750-.800 as the luck faded.

That would be the worst Z-Contact%, and bottom 10 O-Swing% among all 156 qualified MLB hitters.

There are serious red flags with Riley, and hopefully he can continue making adjustments to fix these issues.

One thing that seems constant in write ups and audio from prospect people is that Riley is expected to improve. Riley has consistently improved. The last pipeline podcast talked about his K rate and how Riley always gets better. If you listen to Riley talk about hitting it's like listening to Soroka talk about pitching.

My concern with Riley's ceiling is physical. How much of his swing and miss is due to a physical issue like a lack of bat speed. He's also super slow at 22 and we will see how he ages.

I think the guy will slug 500. I'm just curious if he can get keep the OBP in the 333 range and if he can be average or better at 3B over 150+ games.

[AerchAngel]

One thing that seems constant in write ups and audio from prospect people is that Riley is expected to improve. Riley has consistently improved. The last pipeline podcast talked about his K rate and how Riley always gets better. If you listen to Riley talk about hitting it's like listening to Soroka talk about pitching.

My concern with Riley's ceiling is physical. How much of his swing and miss is due to a physical issue like a lack of bat speed. He's also super slow at 22 and we will see how he ages.

I think the guy will slug 500. I'm just curious if he can get keep the OBP in the 333 range and if he can be average or better at 3B over 150+ games.

You are right. He is slow with the bat-speed, he misses a a lot by being slow, but it will be better with because all hitters need to adjust.

[thethe]

He's BAAAAAACKK!!

[TheBravos]

Or we can continue to look at the actual data...

If everyone agrees that Riley's main issues are swinging at bad pitches (O-Swing%) and missing pitches in the zone (Z-Contact%), we should be hoping those stats improve.

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=18360&position=OF&statArr=39,102,106&legend=1,2,3&split=base&time=game&ymin=&ymax=&start=2019&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=

Everyone sees what they want to see in charts like these, but I see his Z-Contact% fluctuating around 73%, his O-Swing% fluctuating around 40%, and his OPS leveling off around .750-.800 as the luck faded.

That would be the worst Z-Contact%, and bottom 10 O-Swing% among all 156 qualified MLB hitters.

There are serious red flags with Riley, and hopefully he can continue making adjustments to fix these issues.

But....he hits dingers?

[Runnin]

Or we can continue to look at the actual data...

If everyone agrees that Riley's main issues are swinging at bad pitches (O-Swing%) and missing pitches in the zone (Z-Contact%), we should be hoping those stats improve.

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=18360&position=OF&statArr=39,102,106&legend=1,2,3&split=base&time=game&ymin=&ymax=&start=2019&end=2019&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=

Everyone sees what they want to see in charts like these, but I see his Z-Contact% fluctuating around 73%, his O-Swing% fluctuating around 40%, and his OPS leveling off around .750-.800 as the luck faded.

That would be the worst Z-Contact%, and bottom 10 O-Swing% among all 156 qualified MLB hitters.

There are serious red flags with Riley, and hopefully he can continue making adjustments to fix these issues.

Here's a red flag for ya - he's a rookie.

Btw, he' setting rookie hitting records, and yes, he still has flaws. I'd say that's pretty good.

[chop2chip]

Anecdotally, his rookie season is eerily similar to Hack’s, which is scary.

I think he’s more than capable of sustain an iso slugging in the .250-.350 range. So if he can simply hit above .250 and get on base at a .330 clip he should be fine.

I’m honestly much less worried about the walk rate than I am the strikeouts. I care less about a high strikeout rate if it’s a result of a guy drawing a lot of pitches. If he can’t learn to consistently hit pitches in the zone and/or lay off balls outside of the strike zone than he’s going to be prone to extended slumps.

[Enscheff]

I'm pretty much just going to keep my eye on his O-Swing% and Z-Contact%.

If he makes improvements in those areas everything else will be there (and pretty much is there already) to make him a middle of the order bat with just enough defense to be a real asset.

If he keeps being among the worst in the league at swinging at bad pitches and missing pitches in the zone, he's going to have serious problems sticking at the MLB level.

[chop2chip]

I'm pretty much just going to keep my eye on his O-Swing% and Z-Contact%.

If he makes improvements in those areas everything else will be there (and pretty much is there already) to make him a middle of the order bat with just enough defense to be a real asset.

If he keeps being among the worst in the league at swinging at bad pitches and missing pitches in the zone, he's going to have serious problems sticking at the MLB level.
My thoughts exactly.

If the right type of player was available at the deadline, he’s honestly the epitome of a “sell high” young player. He could be the centerpiece to bring back a controllable young superstar. The Braves could then use their payroll this offseason to sign Rendon or Donaldson.

Or we could wait to see if Riley can make the adjustments you are referring to. If he can do that then he’s going to be a great asset.

[AerchAngel]

Riley reminds of Dave Kingman.

[Runnin]

https://www.mlb.com/news/braves-lineup-deepest-in-national-league

Riley, Freeman, Inciarte, and Donaldson have all more or less "earned" what they've put up so far. It's not a guarantee that they'll continue to do so, but they haven't been helped or hurt by good luck or bad defense or anything like it. That's great news if you like watching Riley and Freeman mash; it's less great if you're concerned about what Inciarte can offer, especially since 2018 was his weakest hitting season in Atlanta to begin with.

[Enscheff]

My thoughts exactly.

If the right type of player was available at the deadline, he’s honestly the epitome of a “sell high” young player. He could be the centerpiece to bring back a controllable young superstar. The Braves could then use their payroll this offseason to sign Rendon or Donaldson.

Or we could wait to see if Riley can make the adjustments you are referring to. If he can do that then he’s going to be a great asset.

I think Riley is young enough that I’d like to see the Braves take the chance on helping him figure out his contact issues. As is he’s probably a .750-.800 true talent hitter that can handle 3b competently, which is nothing to sneeze at for league minimum. Then his upside goes up from there as the contact issues improve even a little bit.

I’ve consistently been the low man around here on Riley, but just like with Fried, I see enough there to be hesitant to trade him. Every other team is well aware of the contact issues, so it’s not like any GM is dumb enough to miss the red flags.

They can still spend cash in the OF and/or C.

[AerchAngel]

I think Riley is young enough that I’d like to see the Braves take the chance on helping him figure out his contact issues. As is he’s probably a .750-.800 true talent hitter, which is nothing to sneeze at for league minimum. Then his upside goes up from there as the contact issues improve even a little bit.

I’ve consistently been the low man around here on Riley, but just like with Fried, I see enough there to be hesitant to trade him. Every other team is well aware of the contact issues, so it’s not like any GM is dumb enough to miss the red flags.

Jack Clark/Dave Kingman

But he could be a Bob Horner, when he recognize pitches.

But no Gorman Thomas which he is doing now.

[Enscheff]

Jack Clark/Dave Kingman

But he could be a Bob Horner, when he recognize pitches.

But no Gorman Thomas which he is doing now.

He doesn’t walk nearly enough or make enough contact to be Clark (who was an underrated hitter in his day), but Kingman is a decent comp for what he actually is now. All that power, but the contact limited his value to that of an average MLB player.

[AerchAngel]

He doesn’t walk nearly enough or make enough contact to be Clark (who was an underrated hitter in his day), but Kingman is a decent comp for what he actually is now. All that power, but the contact limited his value to that of an average MLB player.

I know he won't be Horner, he needs to adjust to what you said, contact in the zone and Horner was one of the best.

Like I said, he needs some more coaching. He is doing well for now, but we need better.

[AerchAngel]

I watch the Cubs and been to Wrigley Field A LOT because my family lives in Chicago so I know. Old Comiskey Park, I been there so many times it is not funny, my dad rather go there. I was at the game for Bueller's Day Off. Braves kicked their ass.


And WGN was our main channel like TBS.

[Russ2dollas]

The march to 250 continues. He will get there. Still going to slug 500 plus

[Heyward]

Riley's regressed but he's still been a major addition to the lineup. Wouldnt have the record we do if not for him, saved the Braves ass in alot of games.

[nsacpi]

May vs June numbers:

BABIP: .452 vs .200
ISO: .390 vs .167
K Rate: 33.3 vs 34.1
BB Rate: 4.8 vs 2.3



Update on June numbers: BABIP .275, ISO .250, K Rate 31.1, BB Rate: 4.4, OPS .762

Those June numbers are in line with what I would expect from him going forward during the rest of 2019. Useful player right now. And given his age has a good chance to be an above average major league regular down the line.

As a comp here are Camargo's career major league numbers: BABIP .326, ISO .171, BB Rate: 7.7, K Rate: 20.0, OPS .784.

[Tapate50]

Update on June numbers: BABIP .275, ISO .250, K Rate 31.1, BB Rate: 4.4, OPS .762

Those June numbers are in line with what I would expect from him going forward during the rest of 2019. Useful player right now. And given his age has a good chance to be an above average major league regular down the line.

As a comp here are Camargo's career major league numbers: BABIP .326, ISO .171, BB Rate: 7.7, K Rate: 20.0, OPS .784.

You think he will regularly BABIP below .300?

[nsacpi]

You think he will regularly BABIP below .300?

No. That will move up. But I don't think he will maintain an ISO of .250. Fewer than 15 major league hitters sustained an ISO over .250 for a full season last year. My point is that his overall June performance is pretty close to what I would expect from him in the second half of 2019, with BABIP moving up some and ISO moving down.

[Enscheff]

Keeping tabs on his worrying plate discipline numbers:

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=18360&position=OF&statArr=39,102,106&legend=1,2,3&split=base&time=game&ymin=&ymax=&start=2019&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=

An optimistic fan will see that as his Z-Contact% creeping up to 80%, which is a good sign.

Any fan will also see his O-Swing% isn't getting any better as time wears on. He may be able to make it work, but folks need to understand what kind of hitter Riley is, and not be irrationally frustrated with his overall K/BB rates and limited upside.

Good news is that I imagine not swinging at bad pitches is easier to learn than being able to make contact, so Riley is already improving a bit in the hardest area to improve.

(That last sentence was pure Braves homerism and not based on any actual data)

[Russ2dollas]

350 OBP in the minors. I don't expect him to do better than that in the majors as a 22 yo rookie.

I think youth and a history of making adjustment and improvements makes me optimistic. Scouting reports that he can play 3B well gives me hope too. I just see an 800-850 OPS type and not a star. A really good player though.

Everyone on the Braves is not going to be Acuna or FF.

[Runnin]

Strikeouts be damned, Braves’ rookie slugger Austin Riley continues to impress By David O'Brien. (https://theathletic.com/1045983/2019/06/25/strikeouts-be-damned-braves-rookie-slugger-austin-riley-continues-to-impress/?fbclid=IwAR03eC54bft0DRKgoLRylOO9y0AbbxOtdlmqH-hZcJvCUiOJ1m-IWCx21TA)



“He’s just really impressed me so much,” Seitzer said. “Matter of fact, I told him (Sunday), ‘You’ve done two things that have really impressed me a lot since you’ve been here.’ I said, ‘Number one, your ability to hit anything — hard, soft — you see off-speed, you’ve got that pause where you let it come and you stay on it really good a majority of the time.’ And I said, ‘Second thing, a guy with power has a tendency to try and do too much, and you don’t.’

“I said, ‘There’s been just a couple of times where I thought you got big’ (with his swing), but the vast majority of the time he’s just staying within himself and staying in the middle of the field. And I said, ‘The more you see this pitching, the more you get at-bats off of these guys and you see what their secondary stuff looks like — you’ve got the ability to hit mistakes no matter what the pitch is.’ I go, ‘That’s huge. And it doesn’t matter — it’s like Freddie (Freeman) — if it’s 0-0, 1-0, it doesn’t matter; if he gets something hanging he’s got a chance to hit it in the seats.’

[bravesfanMatt]

Strike outs be damned. Lol. Anyone else feel once Riley gets two strikes he is pretty much done. State. Go pull his line with two strikes. Not just 0-2 but everything with 2 strikes. He has to be really bad.

[The Chosen One]

Strike outs be damned. Lol. Anyone else feel once Riley gets two strikes he is pretty much done. State. Go pull his line with two strikes. Not just 0-2 but everything with 2 strikes. He has to be really bad.

He's hit a few clutch homers and stuff with 2 strikes. But yes it seems like he strikes out nearly every time with 2 strikes.

[thewupk]

Strike outs be damned. Lol. Anyone else feel once Riley gets two strikes he is pretty much done. State. Go pull his line with two strikes. Not just 0-2 but everything with 2 strikes. He has to be really bad.

He has a 395 OPS with 2 strikes

[Enscheff]

Riley pretty much relies on pitchers making a mistake and/or he guesses right to do damage...at least right now.

Hopefully he continues to make adjustments to counter pitchers coming at him with more of a game plan.

He may just be an infuriating .750-.800 OPS hitter that looks really bad between his HRs.

[nsacpi]

He is either a really good mistake hitter or has been benefiting from pitchers making a disproportionate number of bad pitches to him...maybe a bit of both

[Hudson2]

I like having Riley in the lineup but I’d explore a reunion with JD at 3b if he ends the season healthy. Let Riley play LF next year and see how Pache and Waters do in AAA.

[Southcack77]

I like having Riley in the lineup but I’d explore a reunion with JD at 3b if he ends the season healthy. Let Riley play LF next year and see how Pache and Waters do in AAA.

I think if JD finishes the season successfully, you at least tender the QO.

If he turns it down, then kick the tires on Ozuna and Grandal.

[Tapate50]

I’m a little disappointed it doesn’t look like he will get to that 80 hr plateau

[Enscheff]

He is either a really good mistake hitter or has been benefiting from pitchers making a disproportionate number of bad pitches to him...maybe a bit of both

I think early teams had the “slow bat speed” scouting report and challenged him with fastballs.

He showed pretty quickly that was a horrible idea.

Now they are taking advantage of his poor plate discipline, and it’s ip to Riley to make an adjustment to make enough contact that his power plays.