Shanks Follows Up On His Heyward Article

[CyYoung31]

http://www.macon.com/2013/07/08/2548583/statheads-see-a-different-game.html

More "excellent" journalism from Bill. All of the oceans of the Earth couldn't cover all of the problems with this article.

Discuss. :popcorn:

[Carp]

Pompous jackass like he's always been. Someone had an awesome comment though:


"speaking of expectations.... I expected a well written article. I didn't read one."



I can't think of anyone who says Heyward is "great:, aside from may be some hardcore fanboys. Most "statheads" simply point out that he has been very good at a very young age. Even if he's never a superstar, he's still a very good player.

[ChapelHillMatt]

I'm not a stathead and I think it was a terrible article/comparison.

I also think Bill needs to develop thicker skin if he's going to continue to be publish these columns. He still comes across as a guy that HATES to be criticized.

Bottom line is Heyward is a young player still trying to figure things out. He was in the majors at the age of 20 and has had only one bad season. This one looks like it's going to end up being ok when all is said and done. Not bad, not great, just ok.

I'd love to ask Bill why he doesn't feel we should remain patient with young players anymore. What has changed? That used to be his stance all the time on players he liked. Remember how we were supposed to be patient with Davies, Reyes, Francoeur, KJ, LaRoche, etc?

Also he needs to stop acting like the difference in walks isn't a big deal, it's huge. Heyward sees the ball well out of the pitchers hand, Francoeur never did. I hold Francoeur personally responsible for how I view hitters now. Walking is one of the first things I look at. I used to think it didn't matter, now I do. You simply can't be a free swinger and be successful as a major league hitter. You have to show some sort of plate discipline. The fact that Heyward has already mastered this skill should have everyone excited about his future. There is so much talent here, it's amazing to me anyone would want to give up on him. He also works really hard and gives 100%, he's easy to pull for. I have no idea why Bill doesn't like him but it's pretty obvious he doesn't. All the things he's saying about Heyward now, he wasn't saying about Francoeur. He was solidly in his corner up until the day he was traded.

[Bdawg2309]

his terrible hitting vs lefties is an issue

[Carp]

his terrible hitting vs lefties is an issue


Pretty much all LHH don't hit LHP very well. Mac and Freeman hit them relatively well, but still are pretty pedestrian vs Lefties compared to how they hit vs righties.

[Carp]

I'm not a stathead and I think it was a terrible article/comparison.

I also think Bill needs to develop thicker skin if he's going to continue to be publish these columns. He still comes across as a guy that HATES to be criticized.

Bottom line is Heyward is a young player still trying to figure things out. He was in the majors at the age of 20 and has had only one bad season. This one looks like it's going to end up being ok when all is said and done. Not bad, not great, just ok.

I'd love to ask Bill why he doesn't feel we should remain patient with young players anymore. What has changed? That used to be his stance all the time on players he liked. Remember how we were supposed to be patient with Davies, Reyes, Francoeur, KJ, LaRoche, etc?

Also he needs to stop acting like the difference in walks isn't a big deal, it's huge. Heyward sees the ball well out of the pitchers hand, Francoeur never did. I hold Francoeur personally responsible for how I view hitters now. Walking is one of the first things I look at. I used to think it didn't matter, now I do. You simply can't be a free swinger and be successful as a major league hitter. You have to show some sort of plate discipline. The fact that Heyward has already mastered this skill should have everyone excited about his future. There is so much talent here, it's amazing to me anyone would want to give up on him. He also works really hard and gives 100%, he's easy to pull for. I have no idea why Bill doesn't like him but it's pretty obvious he doesn't. All the things he's saying about Heyward now, he wasn't saying about Francoeur. He was solidly in his corner up until the day he was traded.


You always hate to play this card, but pretty much all of those players have one obvious thing in common (well except for Reyes perhaps, but Bill was never really high on him as I recall).

[thethe]

Its silly to ignore stats at this point. Every front office in the game have a few guys who are analytical. Bill needs to get into the modern times.

[Gary82]

One of the guys from Talking Chop (formerly Capitol Avenue Club) writes a rebuttal to Bill's lousy excuse for an article.

http://www.talkingchop.com/2013/7/8/4504196/how-not-to-be-a-journalist


Now that would just make the article bad. What makes the article laughably bad is the hubris that allows someone to write an article entirely about himself, and publish it in a small town paper. Bill devotes an entire paragraph about why he supposes that statheads don't like him. Which his belief is that it's due to him writing an anti-Moneyball book 8 years ago. I'll say that based on the book's sales, it's not even possible that this is a main (let alone the primary) reason why he's disliked. I've never even read Moneyball, and I don't even actually know anybody that read his anti-Moneyball book personally. I don't even dislike Bill Shanks, I think he's just incredibly awful at his job (unless that is, if his actual job is being unintentionally hilariously bad at his nominal job).

In all honesty, does Bill really think statheads hate him because he wrote Scout's Honor? I never read it. I think Neyer wrote a piece on hit and blasting it, but as far as I know, no one else has ever even mentioned the book.

[CyYoung31]

One of the guys from Talking Chop (formerly Capitol Avenue Club) writes a rebuttal to Bill's lousy excuse for an article.

http://www.talkingchop.com/2013/7/8/4504196/how-not-to-be-a-journalist





In all honesty, does Bill really think statheads hate him because he wrote Scout's Honor? I never read it. I think Neyer wrote a piece on hit and blasting it, but as far as I know, no one else has ever even mentioned the book.

That was just a book plug. All the guy does is try to plug a ten year old book because he can't write anything else.

[nsacpi]

I'm one of the apparently small number of people who has read Scout's Honor. It is a pretty good read and I enjoyed it. It has lots of great stories about how scouts found various Braves prospects and how they evaluate players in general. It increased my appreciation of scouts.

Bill seems to think it was a refutation of Moneyball. I don't think so. I'm not sure Bill even understands what the "market inefficiency" approach is. And the idea that there is some sort of war between statheads and traditional scouting is a red herring/strawman/whatever you want to call it. Any decent front office will combine both strands of information.

[Gary82]

The fact he can "stomach" OBP, just goes to show he still hasn't gotten over this false war between statheads and scouts. When was the last time someone tried to argue against OBP!? Most people have moved on from that ridiculous debate.

He mentions that he looks at RBI. smh

[CyYoung31]

I'm one of the apparently small number of people who has read Scout's Honor. It is a pretty good read and I enjoyed it. It has lots of great stories about how scouts found various Braves prospects and how they evaluate players in general. It increased my appreciation of scouts.

Bill seems to think it was a refutation of Moneyball. I don't think so. I'm not sure Bill even understands what the "market inefficiency" approach is. And the idea that there is some war between statheads and traditional scouting is a red herring/strawman/whatever you want to call it. Any decent front office will combine both strands of information.

I've actually read Scout's Honor also and I completely agree with your assessment. Bill actually did something decent with that book, and now has resorted to penning silly little newspaper articles for hits.

[thethe]

I enjoyed scouts honor just because of the stories. But Bill needs to break out of tge stoneage....you need stats to evaulate.

[Gary82]

Stats are fine, to a point. I like seeing what a player’s batting average is, how many home runs and RBI he has and can even stomach seeing what the on-base percentage is. But get too far past that, and it is just gets to be too much. Let the young kids sit with their calculators and watch the games. That’s fine. I don’t need that and neither do most who watch baseball.

Read more here: http://www.macon.com/2013/07/08/2548583/statheads-see-a-different-game.html#storylink=cpy

This quote contains the limits of Bill's baseball intelligence and a prime example of his petulance.

[The Chosen One]

I'm one of the apparently small number of people who has read Scout's Honor. It is a pretty good read and I enjoyed it. It has lots of great stories about how scouts found various Braves prospects and how they evaluate players in general. It increased my appreciation of scouts.

Bill seems to think it was a refutation of Moneyball. I don't think so. I'm not sure Bill even understands what the "market inefficiency" approach is. And the idea that there is some sort of war between statheads and traditional scouting is a red herring/strawman/whatever you want to call it. Any decent front office will combine both strands of information.

At the time he wrote the book which I think was 2004-2005, there were still some front offices that you could tell had major scout favoritism over saber. Jocketty in St. Louis, Ryan in Minnesota, JS in Atlanta. There were only a handful of Moneyball GM's at that time as well. Now it's more accepted in the game, but back at the time he wrote it I think he felt it was a refutation of Moneyball because there was somewhat of a debate back then.

[zitothebrave]

You always hate to play this card, but pretty much all of those players have one obvious thing in common (well except for Reyes perhaps, but Bill was never really high on him as I recall).

Bill was stupid high on Reyes. I was one of the few who thought he was a bum and would stay it. Bill had everyone drooling over his fastball and I said it stank.

[zitothebrave]

I'm one of the apparently small number of people who has read Scout's Honor. It is a pretty good read and I enjoyed it. It has lots of great stories about how scouts found various Braves prospects and how they evaluate players in general. It increased my appreciation of scouts.

Bill seems to think it was a refutation of Moneyball. I don't think so. I'm not sure Bill even understands what the "market inefficiency" approach is. And the idea that there is some sort of war between statheads and traditional scouting is a red herring/strawman/whatever you want to call it. Any decent front office will combine both strands of information.

I read it and thought it was a cool read on the Braves history during the run with a little insight into scouting. It's attempts to refute Moneyball is where I think it failed as a book. He never grasped the market inefficiency route. Even if that's the route the Braves have been taking for the last few years.

[Gary82]

I'm not sure Bill even read Moneyball. It's kinda hard to refute something if you don't know what it is.

[nsacpi]

At the time he wrote the book which I think was 2004-2005, there were still some front offices that you could tell had major scout favoritism over saber. Jocketty in St. Louis, Ryan in Minnesota, JS in Atlanta. There were only a handful of Moneyball GM's at that time as well. Now it's more accepted in the game, but back at the time he wrote it I think he felt it was a refutation of Moneyball because there was somewhat of a debate back then.

I think that's right. Things started to change for the Braves around 2006. Here is an interview with John Copollella, who I believe has helped to meld the two approaches for the Braves.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/09/gm-candidate-john-coppolella.html

Also an interesting chat with Copollella:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=868

If you read what he has to say you will see how much the Braves value both statistics and scouting. Combining the two infuses everything the Braves do.

[Runnin]

I bought and read Scout's Honor. I enjoyed the stories but I was expecting a more cohesive book, not a few random stories from Braves scouts with very little connecting thread. It seemed underdone and under-edited, like it was rushed before the writer had a clear idea of what he was trying to say.

For Braves fans it's still a good read but it doesn't hold up as an important baseball book, or a thorough and well thought out counter argument to Moneyball, and that's the way it was presented at Scout.com.

[nsacpi]

One more interview with Coppolella that discusses the integrated approach the Braves have moved toward.

http://huzzah.co/forums/index.php?/topic/38531-coppolella-interview/

[50PoundHead]

I'm not going to defend Bill (or "Scout's Honor"), but I think everyone needs to go back and read "Moneyball" again, because many of the more simplistic angles of slant in that book have also been proven wanting. Beane's "Moneyball" draft--which was supposed to herald a better way--turned out to be no more effective than other ways of assessing young talent. I don't know how much of the hubris in "Moneyball" is Beane and how much is Lewis (I have always contended more can be laid at the feet of Lewis who, while extremely intelligent has a contrarian streak a mile wide), but all glowing write-ups of unathletic guys who were going to succeed because they recognized the difference between a ball and a strike turned out to be fairly hollow. And if you look at the A's now, they barely resemble the group that Beane assembled in the late-1990s. Of course, Beane's ardent faithful will contend it's all about "market inefficiencies" and not about on-base percentage, but again, for those who contend that, read the book again.

I have nothing against the use of statistics and deep analysis. There are good baseball players and bad baseball players and a lot of guys in-between and they all fall into those categories for a lot of reasons, many of which aren't readily apparent. Solid statistical analysis can often unearth the less-recognizable qualities that define a player's value and that should be respected. But, has nsacpi has pointed out in the Copollella's interviews, scouts still have value, especially in the assessment of ceiling in younger players.

[Knucksie]

One of the guys from Talking Chop (formerly Capitol Avenue Club) writes a rebuttal to Bill's lousy excuse for an article.

http://www.talkingchop.com/2013/7/8/4504196/how-not-to-be-a-journalist



In all honesty, does Bill really think statheads hate him because he wrote Scout's Honor? I never read it. I think Neyer wrote a piece on hit and blasting it, but as far as I know, no one else has ever even mentioned the book.


Scout's Honor was presented as some sort of counter to Moneyball, but that wasn't even the gist of the book. Yeah, it's doubtful that it got much attention, outside of Braves fans. It had some interesting anecdotes, like finding out that the Indians offered Brett Butler back to the Braves for Komminsk. Even for a diehard Braves fans, it's non-essential reading. The books that have to be read by Braves fans are Glavine's, Leo's & Schuerholz's. For the record Schuerholz broached the subject of scouting and statistical analysis. He wrote simply, "we use both." That was the end of the discussion to my mind. Bill kept up as if it had to be one or the other. Both have their uses.

[nsacpi]

Yeah. Moneyball did contain a certain amount of condescension toward scouts. I'm sure that sparked a backlash. And it has taken a while for the hurt feelings to be put aside. But I think most people in the business have moved beyond that. A few continue to find an axe to grind.

Btw it seems to me the main market inefficiency these days is that players for whom a big part of their value is defensive excellence or defensive versatility tend to get underpaid, in free agency and elsewhere.

[Gary82]

I don't understand the concept of it's gotta be one or the other. Scouting has its place, and statistical analysis does as well.

[Gary82]

Btw it seems to me the main market inefficiency these days is that players for whom a big part of their value is defensive excellence or defensive versatility tend to get underpaid, in free agency and elsewhere.

Agreed, but I think people are becoming more aware of the value of a defensive wiz. The market will adjust accordingly.

[zitothebrave]

I'm not going to defend Bill (or "Scout's Honor"), but I think everyone needs to go back and read "Moneyball" again, because many of the more simplistic angles of slant in that book have also been proven wanting. Beane's "Moneyball" draft--which was supposed to herald a better way--turned out to be no more effective than other ways of assessing young talent. I don't know how much of the hubris in "Moneyball" is Beane and how much is Lewis (I have always contended more can be laid at the feet of Lewis who, while extremely intelligent has a contrarian streak a mile wide), but all glowing write-ups of unathletic guys who were going to succeed because they recognized the difference between a ball and a strike turned out to be fairly hollow. And if you look at the A's now, they barely resemble the group that Beane assembled in the late-1990s. Of course, Beane's ardent faithful will contend it's all about "market inefficiencies" and not about on-base percentage, but again, for those who contend that, read the book again.

I have nothing against the use of statistics and deep analysis. There are good baseball players and bad baseball players and a lot of guys in-between and they all fall into those categories for a lot of reasons, many of which aren't readily apparent. Solid statistical analysis can often unearth the less-recognizable qualities that define a player's value and that should be respected. But, has nsacpi has pointed out in the Copollella's interviews, scouts still have value, especially in the assessment of ceiling in younger players.

Really the issue I run into with Moneyball is Lewis's style of writing he purposely creates controversy just because. If you read what it's saying, from quotes from Beane. He's talking about using statistics to exploit market inefficiencies. Beane as a low budget guy has to figure out where he can find bargains. He couldn't afford to keep Jason Giambi so he had to try and replace him. So on so forth. He was onto something at that time. As far as the draft goes, we all know the draft is effectively a crap shoot. If you had to bet who would have been a better first round pick, Minor or Lipka most people would have said Lipka he was young, toolsy, etc. But Minor obviously is better. And reading into the quptes on Moneyball you'd realize that Beane has a different team. I forget if it was a direct quote, but essentially Beane or DePo said that teams were valuing average, RBIs, homers, and stolen bases as the bible and ignoring OBP. After the book came out everyone paid attention to OBP. Heck dozens of teams picked up stat guys after Moneyball.

I'm of the opinion that you have to balance stats and scouting. Stats tell the results, scouting judges the talent. A guy like McCann is a great example against pure scouting. He doesn't look the part of a major league catcher and his raw numbers while good aren't amazing, but you look statistically and realize he's a very special player.

[Knucksie]

Actually, the biggest arguments against Moneyball come right from the A's of that season. The big 3 (Mulder, Hudson & Zito) + Tejada had more to do with their success than some new way of talent evaluation.

[Metaphysicist]

I bought and read Scout's Honor. I enjoyed the stories but I was expecting a more cohesive book, not a few random stories from Braves scouts with very little connecting thread. It seemed underdone and under-edited, like it was rushed before the writer had a clear idea of what he was trying to say.

For Braves fans it's still a good read but it doesn't hold up as an important baseball book, or a thorough and well thought out counter argument to Moneyball, and that's the way it was presented at Scout.com.

This is exactly how I felt about it. It was marketed (by Bill) as giving you the same insight into a Scouting Mindset as Moneyball did for a Stathead mindset, but it fell pretty short of that. The stories were mostly interesting (except for the Moneyball chapter at the end; that was a waste of trees so egregious the Lorax held a protest), but there was no unifying idea beyond an incredibly nebulous account of "makeup." Reading that book was essentially what made me realize that while Bill might be a decent minor league reporter, he was a terrible analyst. Up to that point, I thought maybe he had some kind of inside knowledge and understanding of Braves' operations that let him understand something critical, but... no.

[nsacpi]

Actually, the biggest arguments against Moneyball come right from the A's of that season. The big 3 (Mulder, Hudson & Zito) + Tejada had more to do with their success than some new way of talent evaluation.

Just like Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine made JS look a lot smarter than he really was.

[Mrs. Meta]

This is exactly how I felt about it. It was marketed (by Bill) as giving you the same insight into a Scouting Mindset as Moneyball did for a Stathead mindset, but it fell pretty short of that. The stories were mostly interesting (except for the Moneyball chapter at the end; that was a waste of trees so egregious the Lorax held a protest), but there was no unifying idea beyond an incredibly nebulous account of "makeup." Reading that book was essentially what made me realize that while Bill might be a decent minor league reporter, he was a terrible analyst. Up to that point, I thought maybe he had some kind of inside knowledge and understanding of Braves' operations that let him understand something critical, but... no.

Joe Simpson also brought up the book (and the concluding chapter I think, in a braves broadcast), I felt bad for him.

[ChapelHillMatt]

Its silly to ignore stats at this point. Every front office in the game have a few guys who are analytical. Bill needs to get into the modern times.

Depends what the stats are, I agree with Bill that some are just too much. I really don't pay any attention to most of them but I am big on OBP, OPS, and BABIP. I don't think I'll ever be big on the others that people use. I'm still very traditional in my thinking and like to look at a players AVG, OBP, RBI (how they hit with RISP), AND HR. Those numbers still matter to me. The stathead community wants to shove them out the door and replace them with new stats. I'm not ready for that and I doubt I ever will be.

I obviously don't agree with Bill on a lot but this is one of the few things I'm with him on.

[gilesfan]

I read Scout's Honor. I think Bill is upset that his book didn't sell for ****. It's why he's still plugging it 10 years down the road. I thought the book had some good stories and some good background on some players, but the book has to the useful life of a couple years tops. No one would buy the book now to read about how the Braves scouted Marcus Giles.

I'm a stathead and at times feel statheads are ape****. I've also been critical of Heyward at times bc I think he's more of an athlete than a baseball player. (though that was true of Kemp and then all of a sudden a light turned on)

Bill would have a more successful career if he just stuck with following the Braves instead of making it his life's crusade to bash statheads when the popularity of statistics throughout baseball is growing fast.

[thethe]

Depends what the stats are, I agree with Bill that some are just too much. I really don't pay any attention to most of them but I am big on OBP, OPS, and BABIP. I don't think I'll ever be big on the others that people use. I'm still very traditional in my thinking and like to look at a players AVG, OBP, RBI (how they hit with RISP), AND HR. Those numbers still matter to me. The stathead community wants to shove them out the door and replace them with new stats. I'm not ready for that and I doubt I ever will be.

I obviously don't agree with Bill on a lot but this is one of the few things I'm with him on.

I think you also have to look at LD% and zone swinging percentages because they really give you a better indicator of what will happen in the future.

[50PoundHead]

zito, I get what you are saying, but I've always thought the market inefficiency stuff is a bunch of bunk used by Lewis to justify this new approach that devalued tools over skills. I would only say that Beane and DePodesta valued on-base skills more than other franchises "at the margins," but Lewis makes it sound like those two invented the concept. Voros McCracken and others have tried to claim that on-base skills are a "tool" when they are more a "skill." I don't buy that. If a guy can't hit the ball, he's not going to get the opportunity to walk because pitchers are going to throw him nothing but strikes. In other words, it all fits together.

Other than that, I always thought Beane's approach had to do more with "time" than anything else. A small market team can't afford to wait for guys to develop and then become too expensive when their arbitration years hit. Beane wanted guys who were more "ready made" to contribute when they hit the bigs to get production more immediately and then trade that production for packages of younger players.

And I don't know about McCann. He's probably had a perfect swing since he was five years old and there's no question the kid played at a high level in the heralded Atlanta-area summer leagues. Scouts knew all about him. He may look like a lump, but he's a lump with great hitting mechanics.

As for Lipka versus Minor, one is/was pretty much a finished product and everyone and their mother in the Braves system knew that Lipka was a football player who was going to have to learn how to play baseball. It all depends on where you are as a franchise and how much time and budget you can throw into a guy. You can take high-ceiling guys who may develop more slowly if you can afford to sign them and have the time to watch them develop. I'm not going to single out Lipka, but with the Braves taking a far different approach to the draft in the Liberty ownership era, the need to go out and over-pay for B.J. Upton was readily apparent. It would have been nice to have someone internally who could have slid into the CF position. The problem I see with the Braves under Liberty (and to some extent Wren) is that they are neither fish nor fowl in their approach.

[Julio3000]

I used to think that his constant chiding of the stat kids to get off his lawn was more posturing than anything, but I'm less sure of that now.

Still, I think that he just played the anti-moneyball angle up to try to sell books. Just as he continues to do so in order to get clicks. That's fine, but I think that he has little to offer as a columnist, and less as a journalist. When he was actively running the board I mostly kept my mouth shut, because I appreciated the effort he put into the site, even though I disagreed with him most of the time and thought he was not particularly well-suited to that gig, either.

His thing with Heyward gets under my skin, though. Jason is a better player than most of the guys that Bill jocked unmercifully, but beyond that, he seems to be underappreciated for doing all of the things that traditionalists like Bill supposedly love: he works hard off the field, sells out on every play, plays smart, and says all the right things. People still pat Francoeur on the back for this stuff—"Hey, he stinks, but he plays hard and is a nice guy."

Other guys who demonstrate these qualities? They play the game the right way. They have a high baseball IQ. Jason does it night in and night out . . . crickets.

[gilesfan]

If a guy can't hit the ball, he's not going to get the opportunity to walk because pitchers are going to throw him nothing but strikes. In other words, it all fits together.

But this assumes pitchers can throw strikes when they want to. Look at some of the walk leaders. Duda, Uggla, Carlos Pena, \

Heck there are a couple pitchers with walk rates over 10% (Pettibone, Lynn)

[thethe]

To be fair to Bill he was a HUGE supporter of Heyward as soon as he was drafted. He constantly talked about how special he was going ot be. It was only till his performance at the major league level was not up to his expectation that he started to waiver.

[Metaphysicist]

Beane's "Moneyball" draft--which was supposed to herald a better way--turned out to be no more effective than other ways of assessing young talent. I don't know how much of the hubris in "Moneyball" is Beane and how much is Lewis (I have always contended more can be laid at the feet of Lewis who, while extremely intelligent has a contrarian streak a mile wide)

True, Moneyball was a very simplistic book in retrospect (and at the time, if you knew what you were looking for), and Lewis dialed a number of the aspects up to 11 to make to story seem better (and the movie, while entertaining, dialed them up to 15). But I think this description misses a fundamental goal of that draft for the A's: they needed to save money. It wasn't just about being the best (though obviously that was a big goal, especially in the story as Lewis framed it), but about finding a way to draft guys that wasn't as expensive. So I think getting average results while cheaping out on some guys has to be credited as a success, even if it didn't turn the world upside down.

[ChapelHillMatt]

To be fair to Bill he was a HUGE supporter of Heyward as soon as he was drafted. He constantly talked about how special he was going ot be. It was only till his performance at the major league level was not up to his expectation that he started to waiver.

But why doesn't he want to be patient with him since he's such a young player and still going through a developmental stage? Why does he expect him to be Albert Pujols anyway? He's said himself many times it's ok for a player to go through some adversity and that development doesn't end once you get to the majors. He basically has contradicted everything he's ever said by changing his opinion so quickly on Heyward. Also it's not like we are talking about a player here who has been bad. He's had a pretty solid career thus far imo.

[50PoundHead]

But this assumes pitchers can throw strikes when they want to. Look at some of the walk leaders. Duda, Uggla, Carlos Pena, \

Heck there are a couple pitchers with walk rates over 10% (Pettibone, Lynn)

I guess I was thinking more of the Moneyball draft and all that huzzah. My guess is the difference with the guys you point is that first and foremost, they are in the big leagues and can hit big league fastballs. You don't get to the bigs without that ability. Second, they can't do much of anything with borderline pitches, so they don't swing at them. Sometimes those pitches are balls and sometimes they are strikes (which adds to both the walk and strikeout totals for those players). Plus, a mistake to those guys usually ends up in the stands. It's all risk/reward when you're pitching, but you are right in contending that guys still have to throw quality strikes.

[50PoundHead]

True, Moneyball was a very simplistic book in retrospect (and at the time, if you knew what you were looking for), and Lewis dialed a number of the aspects up to 11 to make to story seem better (and the movie, while entertaining, dialed them up to 15). But I think this description misses a fundamental goal of that draft for the A's: they needed to save money. It wasn't just about being the best (though obviously that was a big goal, especially in the story as Lewis framed it), but about finding a way to draft guys that wasn't as expensive. So I think getting average results while cheaping out on some guys has to be credited as a success, even if it didn't turn the world upside down.

I guess that's my primary beef. This really wasn't the next big thing. In fact, the approach of skills over tools was something the Minnesota Twins did with some success in the 1980s and early 1990s. I still think that the A's were all about truncated development arcs more than anything else. Guys had to be cheap and they had to get to the big leagues in a hurry. I don't care if you are buying a baseball player or a horse, the folks that gamble on pedigree usually end up winning and the A's did not have that advantage.

[ChapelHillMatt]

His thing with Heyward gets under my skin, though. Jason is a better player than most of the guys that Bill jocked unmercifully, but beyond that, he seems to be underappreciated for doing all of the things that traditionalists like Bill supposedly love: he works hard off the field, sells out on every play, plays smart, and says all the right things. People still pat Francoeur on the back for this stuff—"Hey, he stinks, but he plays hard and is a nice guy."

Other guys who demonstrate these qualities? They play the game the right way. They have a high baseball IQ. Jason does it night in and night out . . . crickets.

Exactly

[Knucksie]

Just like Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine made JS look a lot smarter than he really was.

Poor analogy.

Entering the 1991 season, the Braves were picked by ALL the previews to once again finish last. Personnel-wise, would was different? FA signings of Terry Pendleton (MVP), Sid Bream and Rafael Belliard. Jimmy Kremers landed Otis Nixon. Defense was improved exponentially. The IF surface was given a makeover. Expectation of professionalism and attention to detail was spread throughout the organization, even to concessions. These objectives were all the work of JS. As for Maddux, he was obviously still a Cub then. Certainly, JS deserves a fair amount of credit for the greatest FA signing in history, particularly when the Yankees offered more money.

His mark is still on the organization with his handpicked successor as GM. Despite some questionable moves and a few down seasons over the past few years, it's still pretty amazing that the team never had to go through a full scale rebuild. Oh, and head to head with genius statman hero, Billy Beane. Schuerholz didn't do too badly in getting Hudson for Dan Meyer, Charles Thomas & Juan Cruz.

[nsacpi]

Poor analogy.

Entering the 1991 season, the Braves were picked by ALL the previews to once again finish last. Personnel-wise, would was different? FA signings of Terry Pendleton (MVP), Sid Bream and Rafael Belliard. Jimmy Kremers landed Otis Nixon. Defense was improved exponentially. The IF surface was given a makeover. Expectation of professionalism and attention to detail was spread throughout the organization, even to concessions. These objectives were all the work of JS. As for Maddux, he was obviously still a Cub then. Certainly, JS deserves a fair amount of credit for the greatest FA signing in history, particularly when the Yankees offered more money.

His mark is still on the organization with his handpicked successor as GM. Despite some questionable moves and a few down seasons over the past few years, it's still pretty amazing that the team never had to go through a full scale rebuild. Oh, and head to head with genius statman hero, Billy Beane. Schuerholz didn't do too badly in getting Hudson for Dan Meyer, Charles Thomas & Juan Cruz.

I dunno. I think JS came along and benefited from all the great talent that Bobby Cox stockpiled. Some of his trades and signings were very good-Pendleton, Maddux, McGriff, Hudson, Sheffield. But he gave up Jason Schmidt who went on to have some dominant seasons. The fiasco involving the Millwood for Estrada trade was due to a big miscalculation on his part. He also traded away some pretty good young players for questionable returns, including Dye, Wainwright, Feliz, Andrus, Harrison, Saltalamacchia. One of his worst trades was LaRoche (a solid young power hitting first baseman) for Mike Gonzalez. A smart GM does not trade a solid young regular for a middle-of-the-road closer. That trade betrays a misunderstanding of the importance of a closer. Strangely enough he made a better trade that off-season to bring in another closer-Soriano for Horacio Ramirez.

On the whole I'd rate JS slightly above average. I rate the two guys who preceded him and succeeded him (Cox and Wren) much higher as GMs.

[Knucksie]

Jason Schmidt didn't get great until after he left Pittsburgh. Neagle was extremely useful (and arguably) necessary. Avery's effectiveness was dwindling down, and the decision was made to maintain the RH/LH/RH/LH dynamic of the rotation, albeit with all starters who could be staff aces on most other teams. In fact, after Neagle was acquired, Schuerholtz received calls from other GM's trying to get him. JS will be the first to admit his biggest trade disaster. (No, it wasn't Texeira...and that's been beated to death enough at The Other Place.) All discussion begins and ends with David Cone.

Bobby made much bigger blunders as GM. This period of time was recounted in detail by me in a thread at the temporary forum, we just vacated. His saving grace was not trading the young pitching. The Red Sox offered Greenwell for Glavine. A number of inquiries were made about Avery were wisely rebuffed. Really, though, did it take a genius to hold onto those pitchers? It's all they had in the late 80's. Fact is, they could've been competitive sooner. Think of Bob Horner to Japan. Think of declining to sign Dawson/Raines package deal. Think of mishandling asset of Dale Murphy with offers from Padres and Mets that would've helped with roster players for years.

The list of GM's who've won WS championships in both leagues can't be that lengthy. Further, nobody can really fault a GM for occasionally swinging for the fence with some trades, in hopes of coming out a winner in the current playoff crap shoot. (Were the last 2 Cardinals teams really that loaded with talent?) JS understood this fact. He didn't sit around on a message board, contemplating how how much Andrelton Simmons will cost in 5 years or having a man-crush with every prospect in the system.

[jpx7]

And the idea that there is some sort of war between statheads and traditional scouting is a red herring/strawman/whatever you want to call it.

I'd prefer to call it a false dichotomy, personally.

[Metaphysicist]

On the whole I'd rate JS slightly above average. I rate the two guys who preceded him and succeeded him (Cox and Wren) much higher as GMs.

That seems like a pretty big overcorrection. Cox (or maybe Paul Snyder should get the credit here) definitely did a great job priming the pump for the early 90s (though he was not so great at the MLB aspects), but JS presided over a decade and a half of excellence. I can't see how you call him anything other than a top of the line GM. He didn't win every trade, but until the Teixeira one none of them were truly awful. His successes definitely outweigh the failures by a long shot.

[Knucksie]

One thing that needs to be added about this side discussion (sorry to steer the thread OT), but look at the young pitching, who were part of that wave.

Tom Glavine was drafted while Cox was managing in Toronto.
Tommy Greene was traded by Cox with Dale Murphy to Philly. This came back to haunt the Braves, esp. in '93
Pete Smith was acquired with Ozzie Virgil for Steve Bedrosian. This would've been the work of John Mullen.
(Notice the last 2. That should've been an indication to pause before making trades with the Phillies.)

So, what names does that leave? Smoltz trade (excellent asset management of Doyle Alexander). Drafting of Avery, Lilliquist and Mercker.

Ahh, we mustn't forget that Bobby traded away Zane Smith, who had effective years. What was the return? Nothing useful.

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/trades.php?p=smithza01

(Look at what the Expos got from the Pirates for him though!)

[jpx7]

I don't know how much of the hubris in "Moneyball" is Beane and how much is Lewis (I have always contended more can be laid at the feet of Lewis who, while extremely intelligent has a contrarian streak a mile wide), but all glowing write-ups of unathletic guys who were going to succeed because they recognized the difference between a ball and a strike turned out to be fairly hollow. And if you look at the A's now, they barely resemble the group that Beane assembled in the late-1990s. Of course, Beane's ardent faithful will contend it's all about "market inefficiencies" and not about on-base percentage, but again, for those who contend that, read the book again.

I think Moneyball was ultimately so reductive exactly because Lewis felt the need to position his text, and the organization and trend it detailed, as so counter-institutional. I also think positing an oh-so-shockingly counter-conventional subject/narrative is a frequently-observable phenomenon when journalists decide to write lengthy non-fiction.

[gilesfan]

I think Moneyball was ultimately so reductive exactly because Lewis felt the need to position his text, and the organization and trend it detailed, as so counter-institutional. I also think positing an oh-so-shockingly counter-conventional subject/narrative is a frequently-observable phenomenon when journalists decide to write lengthy non-fiction.


In english?

[jpx7]

In english?

Edit: Screw it: let's just say it doesn't translate.

[thethe]

That seems like a pretty big overcorrection. Cox (or maybe Paul Snyder should get the credit here) definitely did a great job priming the pump for the early 90s (though he was not so great at the MLB aspects), but JS presided over a decade and a half of excellence. I can't see how you call him anything other than a top of the line GM. He didn't win every trade, but until the Teixeira one none of them were truly awful. His successes definitely outweigh the failures by a long shot.

The JD Drew trade was even worse IMO.

[Knucksie]

That seems like a pretty big overcorrection. Cox (or maybe Paul Snyder should get the credit here) definitely did a great job priming the pump for the early 90s (though he was not so great at the MLB aspects), but JS presided over a decade and a half of excellence. I can't see how you call him anything other than a top of the line GM. He didn't win every trade, but until the Teixeira one none of them were truly awful. His successes definitely outweigh the failures by a long shot.

Schuerholz made the Texeira trade because he salivated at the prospect of having 2 hit for power/hit for average switch hitters at 3-4 in the lineup. He knew that Chipper was going to see A LOT more strikes than he ever saw before. That was the motivating factor. The system had other pitching and a SS, at the time, which allowed for it to happen. Do over? Yeah, highly doubtful JS would've done it with the benefit of hindsight.

Still, JS's worst trade was the David Cone deal. For the Braves, it was the Len Barker deal that caused far more lasting damage to the organization.

[zitothebrave]

zito, I get what you are saying, but I've always thought the market inefficiency stuff is a bunch of bunk used by Lewis to justify this new approach that devalued tools over skills. I would only say that Beane and DePodesta valued on-base skills more than other franchises "at the margins," but Lewis makes it sound like those two invented the concept. Voros McCracken and others have tried to claim that on-base skills are a "tool" when they are more a "skill." I don't buy that. If a guy can't hit the ball, he's not going to get the opportunity to walk because pitchers are going to throw him nothing but strikes. In other words, it all fits together.

Other than that, I always thought Beane's approach had to do more with "time" than anything else. A small market team can't afford to wait for guys to develop and then become too expensive when their arbitration years hit. Beane wanted guys who were more "ready made" to contribute when they hit the bigs to get production more immediately and then trade that production for packages of younger players.

And I don't know about McCann. He's probably had a perfect swing since he was five years old and there's no question the kid played at a high level in the heralded Atlanta-area summer leagues. Scouts knew all about him. He may look like a lump, but he's a lump with great hitting mechanics.

As for Lipka versus Minor, one is/was pretty much a finished product and everyone and their mother in the Braves system knew that Lipka was a football player who was going to have to learn how to play baseball. It all depends on where you are as a franchise and how much time and budget you can throw into a guy. You can take high-ceiling guys who may develop more slowly if you can afford to sign them and have the time to watch them develop. I'm not going to single out Lipka, but with the Braves taking a far different approach to the draft in the Liberty ownership era, the need to go out and over-pay for B.J. Upton was readily apparent. It would have been nice to have someone internally who could have slid into the CF position. The problem I see with the Braves under Liberty (and to some extent Wren) is that they are neither fish nor fowl in their approach.

First I have to say 50, there's a reason I like you as a poster, you hold good debates and never take it personally.

As far as the market inefficiencies, I think we just wind up in a circular argument cause I could point to Beane siwtching his strategy to highschool and speed/defensive people, you could successfully counter saying Moneyball failed and that's why he abandoned it. I just assume based on what I read that Beane is a bargain hunter because of his payroll.

I agree that time certainly played a role. I believe he touched on that in Moneyball. And you're right you have to replace expensive guys fast and getting college guys great for that. So I totally agree with your point there.

My point with McCann is he doesn't have immense power, aside from one year didn't really hit for a super high average and pretty mucheveryone who doesn't really know catching thinks he's a bad catcher. His not pure scout attributes like his patience, and his mechanics behind the plate, etc. build up a better player than it appears. If everyone know what McCann would become he wouldn't have lasted very long in the draft. Pujols would be another example. Some guys produce better results than they look. Some guys look better than their results.

I agree with you, I don't like the drafts under liberty. Braves have been too conservative, the only picks I've really liked were Wood and Sims. Obviously some other oens worked out well like Gattis, Simmons, Terdo, but in general most of the guys we drafted didn't build much excitement cause they're not high ceiling guys.

[zitothebrave]

The JD Drew trade was even worse IMO.

Drew trade wasn't the worst. I mean sure Wainwright is arguably the best player traded in either deal, but the Braves traded 4 major league players for Tex.

[Metaphysicist]

The JD Drew trade was even worse IMO.

I don't think that is particularly close. The JD Drew made sense at the time and got us to the playoffs. It looks worse because Wainwright, the one prospect in the trade, hit his 99% percentile outcome. You can't plan on stuff like that, and I don't want a GM who is scared to pull the trigger because he's scared of low probability outcomes. And frankly, I highly doubt Wainwright becomes the same pitcher in Atlanta, away from Dave Duncan.

The Tex trade was nonsensical at the time (we desperately needed pitching, not hitting), and we gave up 4(!) top prospects, all of whom have turned into solid or better major leaguers. And Tex did much less for the team than Drew did.

[nsacpi]

LaRoche for Gonzalez was a very bad trade. Especially since it set in train a series of events that led to Teixeira.

[JCarbo76]

I don't think that is particularly close. The JD Drew made sense at the time and got us to the playoffs. It looks worse because Wainwright, the one prospect in the trade, hit his 99% percentile outcome. You can't plan on stuff like that, and I don't want a GM who is scared to pull the trigger because he's scared of low probability outcomes. And frankly, I highly doubt Wainwright becomes the same pitcher in Atlanta, away from Dave Duncan.

The Tex trade was nonsensical at the time (we desperately needed pitching, not hitting), and we gave up 4(!) top prospects, all of whom have turned into solid or better major leaguers. And Tex did much less for the team than Drew did.

One point that was missed is that Tex did an absolutely great job with the Braves. In right at a full season's work (157 games over the two seasons), he hit right at .300 with 106 runs scored, 37 homers, 134 RBI and 95 walks. Drew did very well as a Brave, too. In 145 games he hit .305, with 31 homers, 118 runs scored 93 RBI and 118 walks.

Those are two fine seasons right there.

[AUTiger7222]

Scout's Honor was presented as some sort of counter to Moneyball, but that wasn't even the gist of the book. Yeah, it's doubtful that it got much attention, outside of Braves fans. It had some interesting anecdotes, like finding out that the Indians offered Brett Butler back to the Braves for Komminsk. Even for a diehard Braves fans, it's non-essential reading. The books that have to be read by Braves fans are Glavine's, Leo's & Schuerholz's. For the record Schuerholz broached the subject of scouting and statistical analysis. He wrote simply, "we use both." That was the end of the discussion to my mind. Bill kept up as if it had to be one or the other. Both have their uses.

I have JS's book. Also wanna read Smoltz's and Lopez's books.


Just like Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine made JS look a lot smarter than he really was.

Maybe but JS signed Maddux thanks to Ted's deep pockets. He also made a lot of other moves that had a huge impact on turning the Braves around like bringing in Pendleton, Belliard and Bream knowing how important defense was to a pitcher's success. JS also built a WS winner in Kansas City and the Royals haven't come close to making the playoffs since he left. So yeah JS deserves a lot more credit than Billy Beane because Beane's Oakland teams have only made the playoffs 3 or 4 times since he's been there and I think won only 1 playoff series.

[AUTiger7222]

One point that was missed is that Tex did an absolutely great job with the Braves. In right at a full season's work (157 games over the two seasons), he hit right at .300 with 106 runs scored, 37 homers, 134 RBI and 95 walks. Drew did very well as a Brave, too. In 145 games he hit .305, with 31 homers, 118 runs scored 93 RBI and 118 walks.

Those are two fine seasons right there.

Mark Teixeira wasn't the reason that trade turned into a huge bust. He did his job. But the Braves issues were they had no pitching aside from Huddy and Smoltz. JS made a criticial mistake in thinking that Teixeira would be able to turn a really good offense into the 1927 Yankees and that the Braves would be able to outscore everyone to the playoffs.

I still believe the worst thing that ever happened to the Braves was the Baby Braves of 2005. The only one that turned into a legit MLB player was Brian McCann. KJ has been alright but far too inconsistent in his career to be an impact starter. The rest were all busts that were exposed once they got around the league a few times. But JS and BC saw what happened and thought the train would keep keep on going when the reality was the Braves should have tore it down and rebuild. It wouldn't have taken all the way until 2010 to get back to being a playoff team.

[Julio3000]

Remember, our other prize pitching prospect at the time of the Drew deal was Bubba Nelson.

Also, +1 to jpx7 for the reason given for editing #52.

[jpx7]

Beane's Oakland teams have only made the playoffs 3 or 4 times since he's been there and I think won only 1 playoff series.

Not quite: he's been GM since 1998, and over that stretch of fifteen seasons they've made the playoffs six times (only one of which was a wild-card berth) — by no means a horrible percentage. They were better than .500 in three more of those seasons (and exactly .500 in a fourth), so that's nine winning and ten non-losing seasons in sixteen years.

As for the one playoff series victory: I'm not going to hang crapshoot eventualities on the GM — plus, only one of those series losses was non-competitive (0-4 loss to the Tigers in the 2006 ALCS), and all of their ALDS eliminations required the full five games.

[AUTiger7222]

I dunno. I think JS came along and benefited from all the great talent that Bobby Cox stockpiled. Some of his trades and signings were very good-Pendleton, Maddux, McGriff, Hudson, Sheffield. But he gave up Jason Schmidt who went on to have some dominant seasons. The fiasco involving the Millwood for Estrada trade was due to a big miscalculation on his part. He also traded away some pretty good young players for questionable returns, including Dye, Wainwright, Feliz, Andrus, Harrison, Saltalamacchia. One of his worst trades was LaRoche (a solid young power hitting first baseman) for Mike Gonzalez. A smart GM does not trade a solid young regular for a middle-of-the-road closer. That trade betrays a misunderstanding of the importance of a closer. Strangely enough he made a better trade that off-season to bring in another closer-Soriano for Horacio Ramirez.

On the whole I'd rate JS slightly above average. I rate the two guys who preceded him and succeeded him (Cox and Wren) much higher as GMs.

The Neagle for Schmidt trade was great. I remember there were a lot of questions about if Schmidt would ever live up to his potential. He finally did but with the Giants several years later. Neagle while largely ineffective down the stretch in 1996, pitched well in the playoffs that year and carried over into him having the best season of his career in 1997 for the Braves. His saw his performance decline a bit in 1998 but that was ok because 1998 was when Kevin Millwood came along. Neagle left in free agency that off-season and Millwood got his spot in the rotation.

[gilesfan]

Laroche for Gonzalez and the JD Drew trade at least made some sense. THere is no comparison.

[AUTiger7222]

Not quite: he's been GM since 1998, and over that stretch of sixteen seasons they've made the playoffs six times (only one of which was a wild-card berth) — by no means a horrible percentage. They were better than .500 in three more of those seasons (and exactly .500 in a fourth), so that's nine winning and ten non-losing seasons in sixteen years.

As for the one playoff series victory: I'm not going to hang crapshoot eventualities on the GM — plus, only one of those series losses was non-competitive (0-4 loss to the Tigers in the 2006 ALCS), and all of their ALDS eliminations required the full five games.

Ok. But since that 2006 ALCS lost they've made the playoffs just once and that was last year when they came from nowhere to make it. Last year was also the only winning season they've had since then with 1 year exactly at .500 and the rest losing seasons. His return for Huddy turned out to be absolutely nothing. The return on Mulder was great, Dan Haren for Mulder, he then flipped Haren a couple years later for Brett Anderson and Carlos Gonzalez from the Diamondbacks. But then made the ill fated decision to trade Cargo to the Rockies for Matt Holliday.

[jpx7]

Ok. But since that 2006 ALCS lost they've made the playoffs just once and that was last year when they came from nowhere to make it. Last year was also the only winning season they've had since then with 1 year exactly at .500 and the rest losing seasons. His return for Huddy turned out to be absolutely nothing. The return on Mulder was great, Dan Haren for Mulder, he then flipped Haren a couple years later for Brett Anderson and Carlos Gonzalez from the Diamondbacks. But then made the ill fated decision to trade Cargo to the Rockies for Matt Holliday.

I'm not disagreeing with the general assertion that Billy Beane has not been as good a GM as John Schuerholz was; however, on the balance, he's been pretty good, regardless of a few recent seasons of mediocrity.

Moreover: you said the A's had only made the playoffs "three or four times" in his tenure, which is patently false and definitely obscures the very good job he did early in his career (not to mention the fact that the organization seems to be on the upswing again after that stretch of down-years on which you're focusing).

[zitothebrave]

LaRoche for Gonzalez was a very bad trade. Especially since it set in train a series of events that led to Teixeira.

That's the biggest truth of them all.

We may even have had another playoff appearance (though severely unlikely) if we kept ROchey.Bottom line was that was a bad trade that was made worse by trading the farm for Tex.

Can't believe the Braves thought Thorman was legit.

[thethe]

Drew trade wasn't the worst. I mean sure Wainwright is arguably the best player traded in either deal, but the Braves traded 4 major league players for Tex.

Marquis is also going ot end up having a solid career. He could have been a back end starter for us for many years. I'm sorry, everyone knew Drew wasn't going to stay just like Teix wasn't going to stay. We traded one of the best pitchers of hte last decade away...a Georgia product who could have been a lifer. That was the worst trade. All the players traded for Teix were replaceable. The Teix deal would have been fine had we held onto him and just picked up the draft pick. That was the worst part of the deal.

[zitothebrave]

Marquis though had no value, Leo wasn't gonna let him stick around.

Drew had one of the greatest seasons of any Braves ever, and lead the team to the playoffs, that counters the trade on the other side. And I don't think Waino would be a lifer, too expensive, and the JS way is not to sign pitchers too long term and I don't think he'd let Wren either.

[thethe]

Marquis though had no value, Leo wasn't gonna let him stick around.

Drew had one of the greatest seasons of any Braves ever, and lead the team to the playoffs, that counters the trade on the other side. And I don't think Waino would be a lifer, too expensive, and the JS way is not to sign pitchers too long term and I don't think he'd let Wren either.

Who cares about going to the playoffs? Thats what the biggest killer was to the Braves. Keeping that stupid streak alive. Drew was good but everyone knew he wasn't staying. I am not going to play what ifs on how long Marquis/Waino would have stayed. All I know is that we kept a stupid streak alive and lost one of the top 5-10 pitchers for the next 15 years. Thats as bad of a trade as you can make.

[jpx7]

Who cares about going to the playoffs?

That's literally the point of each and every season.


All I know is that we kept a stupid streak alive and lost one of the top 5-10 pitchers for the next 15 years. That's as bad of a trade as you can make.

There was no reason to suspect, at the time, that Wainwright was destined for such greatness; he posted good, but not phenomenal, minor-league numbers with very good, but not phenomenal, stuff. Furthermore, as Meta said, it isn't unreasonable to wonder whether Wainwright would have ever reached his current echelon without the intervening tutelage of Dave Duncan.


That's what the biggest killer was to the Braves. Keeping that stupid streak alive.

The streak was damn awesome, and – as Braves fan – I am still proud of it.

[weso1]

I think Bill was right about the stathead movement. I also think Nate Silver was wrong about the election.

[thethe]

That's literally the point of each and every season.



There was no reason to suspect, at the time, that Wainwright was destined for such greatness; he posted good, but not phenomenal, minor-league numbers with very good, but not phenomenal, stuff. Furthermore, as Meta said, it isn't unreasonable to wonder whether Wainwright would have ever reached his current echelon without the intervening tutelage of Dave Duncan.



The streak was damn awesome, and – as Braves fan – I am still proud of it.

Making hte playoffs with a legitimate chance to win is the point. While the playoffs are a crapshoot the Braves were the product of a division that was horrible for years. Striving to make hte playoffs each year set the franchise back IMO.

Many pitchers have excelled under Roger McDowell and I suspect the same would have happened for Wainwright.

[zitothebrave]

From 1991-2005 8 out of 14 NL representatives in the World Series were from the same division as the BRaves, in 93 the year the Phillies (future divisionmates) bested the Braves, bu tthe 93 Braves had 104 wins topping the Giants with 103 wins. Of course the 2 teams were far and away the best records in baseball, where the Braves had 9 more wins in the regular season than champion bluejays.

[jpx7]

Making hte playoffs with a legitimate chance to win is the point. While the playoffs are a crapshoot the Braves were the product of a division that was horrible for years. Striving to make hte playoffs each year set the franchise back IMO.

The Braves had a legitimate chance to win the World Series in 2004, and JD Drew was a big reason why.

[zitothebrave]

The Braves had a legitimate chance to win the World Series in 2004, and JD Drew was a big reason why.

Yup, infact I'd venture if the Astros didn't have Beltran the Braves would have comfortably won that series.

[nsacpi]

To me the regular season is a more legitimate test of a team's quality. Post-season success is great for the adrenaline rush and all that, but it IS a crapshoot. Remember the 2006 Cardinals. If they could win the WS, then any team getting into the playoffs has a chance.

Almost every season we see how much luck is involved in the post-season. Giants last season with miraculous series wins against the Reds and Cardinals. Then the mystifying sweep against the Tigers.

[BRule]

Marquis is easily replaceable.....Wainwright, not so much.

[TURBO]

Waino hurts, Although he was a douche last year.

[Knucksie]

Who cares about going to the playoffs?

That's kind of the point, isn't it? With the wildcard, it's become such a crapshoot. The sense is that once you get there, anything can happen. That's how it went down with the Cards, their last 2 world championships. It's how it was with the Red Sox and even the Marlins.

[Gary82]

I do take some solace knowing that JD Drew put up his best year with us. Maybe it was because Marcus Giles kept bullying him.

[jpx7]

I do take some solace knowing that JD Drew put up his best year with us. Maybe it was because Marcus Giles kept bullying him.

Don't forget Chipper!

[Runnin]

Advice for Bill Shanks - When you find yourself in a hole, a hole of your own making, stop digging.

[elmonthc]

Bill shanks doesnt care about black people.

Im surprised he didnt say he wants to apologize to jason over some fried chicked, watermelon, qnd a 40 of st. ides.

[AUTiger7222]

I'm not disagreeing with the general assertion that Billy Beane has not been as good a GM as John Schuerholz was; however, on the balance, he's been pretty good, regardless of a few recent seasons of mediocrity.

Moreover: you said the A's had only made the playoffs "three or four times" in his tenure, which is patently false and definitely obscures the very good job he did early in his career (not to mention the fact that the organization seems to be on the upswing again after that stretch of down-years on which you're focusing).

I was wrong about how many times they had made the playoffs. I was guessing off the top of my head. 4 is only 2 less than 6. It wasn't like my guess was so far off I was trolling or something.

[AUTiger7222]

That's literally the point of each and every season.



There was no reason to suspect, at the time, that Wainwright was destined for such greatness; he posted good, but not phenomenal, minor-league numbers with very good, but not phenomenal, stuff. Furthermore, as Meta said, it isn't unreasonable to wonder whether Wainwright would have ever reached his current echelon without the intervening tutelage of Dave Duncan.



The streak was damn awesome, and – as Braves fan – I am still proud of it.

People need to also not forget the influence that Chris Carpenter had on Wainwright's development with both of them being very similar pitchers. Both tall, lean right handed pitchers with power curveballs. There was no pitcher on the Braves at the time that could have given Wainwright the same kind of influence.

[Gary82]

Bill shanks doesnt care about black people.

Im surprised he didnt say he wants to apologize to jason over some fried chicked, watermelon, qnd a 40 of st. ides.

He basically said Hank Aaron was lazy.

[Julio3000]

He basically said Hank Aaron was lazy.

Wha?

[weso1]

People need to also not forget the influence that Chris Carpenter had on Wainwright's development with both of them being very similar pitchers. Both tall, lean right handed pitchers with power curveballs. There was no pitcher on the Braves at the time that could have given Wainwright the same kind of influence.

Ben Sheets

[weso1]

I feel like when Jason Heyward is hitting well, he's one of the best players in baseball.

When Francouer is hitting well it's a miracle.

[AUTiger7222]

Ben Sheets

Ben Sheets only pitched for the Braves last year. Sheets was pitching for the Brewers in the mid 2000s when Wainwright was coming up. The Braves didn't have a similar pitcher to Wainwright at the time that could have helped him in his development.

[weso1]

That was last year? Seems like forever ago.

[AUTiger7222]

That was last year? Seems like forever ago.

I had to think if it was last year or 2011 but it was last year.

[The Chosen One]

Was last year.

Sheets started the last game of the regular season and pitched 1 inning and cried in the dugout.

Chipper got his last hit off of Burnett.

[Gary82]

Wha?

http://braves.scout.com/2/793854.html


Aaron claims he had a larger role in getting Chipper to sign with us. Now I don't really care too much about Bill's criticism of that, but then he goes off and attacks Aaron.



But again, what has Aaron done to earn a paycheck from the Atlanta Braves over the past eighteen years?

[Julio3000]

He basically said Hank Aaron was lazy.

Adam LaRoche loafs while he's supposed to be covering first, costing runs = ADD
Jason Heyward is not Chipper Jones = must not be trying hard enough.

[Gary82]

BillShanks @BillShanks

@skinnyswag16 --- Again, I wrote that I would LISTEN to an offer. What's wrong with listening? I have doubts if Heyward even loves baseball.
11:14 AM - 4 Nov 2011

[BremanFan88]

BillShanks @BillShanks

@skinnyswag16 --- Again, I wrote that I would LISTEN to an offer. What's wrong with listening? I have doubts if Heyward even loves baseball.
11:14 AM - 4 Nov 2011

Still funny.

[Julio3000]

http://braves.scout.com/2/793854.html


Aaron claims he had a larger role in getting Chipper to sign with us. Now I don't really care too much about Bill's criticism of that, but then he goes off and attacks Aaron.

The only thing I'm certain about is that Hank Aaron has spent a lifetime crapping bigger than Bill Shanks.

[Julio3000]

Still funny.

Just . . . so . . . mind-bogglingly . . . stupid. It never gets old.

[BremanFan88]

Just . . . so . . . mind-bogglingly . . . stupid. It never gets old.

When you have no facts to back up what you say you get desperate and just throw crap at the wall. Bill is pretty much a shock jock now. Controversy creates ratings.

[Carp]

I feel like when Jason Heyward is hitting well, he's one of the best players in baseball.

When Francouer is hitting well it's a miracle.


I chuckled

[Carp]

Multi. Hit. Games

[nsacpi]

I wonder what Bill Shanks would think of Glen Perkins.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/qa-glen-perkins-a-twin-his-fip-and-math/

I wonder if the Braves have a player into the stats the way Perkins is.

[TURBO]

That was a cool read

[Julio3000]

I wonder what Bill Shanks would think of Glen Perkins.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/qa-glen-perkins-a-twin-his-fip-and-math/

I wonder if the Braves have a player into the stats the way Perkins is.


We've had a couple of guys who were into tats. Close enough?

[jpx7]

We've had a couple of guys who were into tats. Close enough?

Something like this?

http://mentalfloss.com/sites/default/files/styles/article_640x430/public/math_primary.jpg

[Julio3000]

If he goes to his calculator while he's on the rubber, that's a balk.

[The Chosen One]

I wonder what Bill Shanks would think of Glen Perkins.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/qa-glen-perkins-a-twin-his-fip-and-math/

I wonder if the Braves have a player into the stats the way Perkins is.

The anti francoeur.

[TURBO]

Something like this?

http://mentalfloss.com/sites/default/files/styles/article_640x430/public/math_primary.jpg

Bet a lot of students wished this guy sat in-front of them during Algebra.

[Julio3000]

However, if he goes to his rubber while he's on the calculator, that's something else entirely.

/just the FIP

[jason27nc]

Its silly to ignore stats at this point. Every front office in the game have a few guys who are analytical. Bill needs to get into the modern times.

I agree but there are more to baseball than stats. You have to take into consideration good players can slump and still be playing good. For instance, a player may strike out 4 times in a game and on paper that look awful. In the game he may have fouled off a couple pitches and taking the pitcher to a 3 - 2 count. He may have just missed a home run that was foul by a foot. Then after 7 or 8 pitches he swings and misses. To me that was a good at bat but on paper in sucked. Then you have to take in to consideration luck and if a guy is hitting the ball hard. I know Heyward has hit some shots this year that was just caught.

[jpx7]

/just the FIP

Nice.

[BremanFan88]

I agree but there are more to baseball than stats. You have to take into consideration good players can slump and still be playing good. For instance, a player may strike out 4 times in a game and on paper that look awful. In the game he may have fouled off a couple pitches and taking the pitcher to a 3 - 2 count. He may have just missed a home run that was foul by a foot. Then after 7 or 8 pitches he swings and misses. To me that was a good at bat but on paper in sucked. Then you have to take in to consideration luck and if a guy is hitting the ball hard. I know Heyward has hit some shots this year that was just caught.

There are stats for most of that though. Stats for pitches seen, stats to see if guys are swinging at pitches in the zone or out. In Heyward's case line drive percentage was showing he was hitting the ball hard and his BABIP shows how unlucky he's been.

[BRule]

Multi. Hit. Games


Still can't believe that was his argument.

[ChapelHillMatt]

There are stats for most of that though. Stats for pitches seen, stats to see if guys are swinging at pitches in the zone or out. In Heyward's case line drive percentage was showing he was hitting the ball hard and his BABIP shows how unlucky he's been.

Where is the stat that shows what outs are productive and those that aren't?

[BremanFan88]

Where is the stat that shows what outs are productive and those that aren't?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/productive?sort=productiveOutRatio&tp=team

Although "productive out" is a bit of an oxymoron because you prefer to have players that don't make outs at all. Oddly enough the Braves are one of the better productive outs teams. I'm glad they keep it a team stat though. Following a players ability to make a productive out seems odd since it's technically a failure but sacrifices and putting the ball in play in certain situation can be easily found to see if it results in DP's and what not. And obviously you can see if the player is even making contact too.

[BremanFan88]

I did some looking and baseball reference is actually keeping track of situational hitting and productive outs. Here's Dan Uggla's link(why not). He's actually solid at it this year.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/ugglada01-bat.shtml#batting_situational::none

[pfiggy]

Excellent discussion men, hard to believe it all started from a Bill Shanks article

[BremanFan88]

BillShanks ‏@BillShanks 4h
RT @jp_edu: @BillShanks how's your scout board doing ���� - Not mine anymore, thank goodness!

Apparently Bill discussed the "Heyward problem" on his show today. I'm sure he had nice things to say.

[ChapelHillMatt]

Who asked him that? Wonder if he knows of his slow and painful death?

[BremanFan88]

Who asked him that? Wonder if he knows of his slow and painful death?

Don't know. I saw it retweeted by someone I follow.

[Knucksie]

Mentioning or linking to Fangraphs should be banned from this forum.

[TURBO]

Mentioning or linking to Fangraphs should be banned from this forum.

Wheres the dislike button. I disagree

[yeezus]

Don't know. I saw it retweeted by someone I follow.

HAHA that was me! i was surprised he answered, and quickly.

[yeezus]

Who asked him that? Wonder if he knows of his slow and painful death?

when i asked a used the sleeping emoticon and the crying laughing one..i think he gets it

[TURBO]

We should get Shanks on here

[yeezus]

We should get Shanks on here

i was going to reply back to him with the link to here.
this thread specifically.

[nsacpi]

Check out Heyward's latest tweet.

[BRule]

Check out Heyward's latest tweet.

OMG HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA

[jpx7]

Check out Heyward's latest tweet.

Snap.

[nsacpi]

Snap.

As someone else tweeted, Jason brought a bazooka to this little dustup.

Jason showing an interesting side to his personality there. That's a pretty cold putdown.

[weso1]

"You wanted to play for the Braves pretty bad when you were growing up huh? Lol @BillShanks I could see why the outcome of that dream would cause one to be as bitter as you come off. Thats unfortunate.. for yourself.... You welcome for the exposure; and the followers if you're into that sort of thing"

[weso1]

Is it confirmed that that's really his twitter?

[BRule]

Is it confirmed that that's really his twitter?

It is, he's verified.

[AUTiger7222]

Jason Heyward is a beast! Dayum he just straight owned Shanks!

[weso1]

That's awesome. Here's his twitter:

link (https://twitter.com/JasonHeyward)

[jpx7]

"You wanted to play for the Braves pretty bad when you were growing up huh? Lol @BillShanks I could see why the outcome of that dream would cause one to be as bitter as you come off. Thats unfortunate.. for yourself.... You welcome for the exposure; and the followers if you're into that sort of thing"

Nominee for FEEL ME blast of the week.

http://i1239.photobucket.com/albums/ff511/poinsett/d16d41c2-7c26-4d7b-8e12-d7d5177006d4_zps8ac934e6.jpg

[nsacpi]

#DownGoesFrazier trending up for some reason

[weso1]

5,000 pages comin:popcorn:

[The Chosen One]

Does anyone know how this started?

Did someone tweet the article Shanks wrote to JHey's twitter?

I don't see a back and forth tweeting war, just a major knockout punch.

[Julio3000]

Nominee for FEEL ME blast of the week.

http://i1239.photobucket.com/albums/ff511/poinsett/d16d41c2-7c26-4d7b-8e12-d7d5177006d4_zps8ac934e6.jpg

I think we can skip the formal nomination process in this case.

[Julio3000]

http://i1239.photobucket.com/albums/ff511/poinsett/tyson-spinks.jpg

[Julio3000]

Does anyone know how this started?

Did someone tweet the article Shanks wrote to JHey's twitter?

I don't see a back and forth tweeting war, just a major knockout punch.

I have doubts if Jason Heyward even loves Twitter.

—Fake Bill Shanks

[AUTiger7222]

Does anyone know how this started?

Did someone tweet the article Shanks wrote to JHey's twitter?

I don't see a back and forth tweeting war, just a major knockout punch.

I don't see a back and forth either. Makes me wonder if Shanks said something on the radio today about Heyward getting hurt last night.

[BRule]

I have doubts if Jason Heyward even loves Twitter.

—Fake Bill Shanks

Yeah but how many multiple tweet days does he have?

- Fake Bill Shanks

[weso1]

http://www.mobygames.com/images/shots/l/49096-mike-tyson-s-punch-out-nes-screenshot-flamenco-is-down-for.gif

[Julio3000]

Trolling Jason Heyward: The Bravest Way to Build a Bigger Audience

[elmonthc]

Trolling Jason Heyward: The Bravest Way to Build a Bigger Audience

Its a brave new world.

[acesfull86]

Looks like I have a favorite Brave.

[The Chosen One]

Looks like I have a favorite Brave.

Least we forget... you're a Mets fan. :emot-siren.gif.17:

[The Chosen One]

As someone else tweeted, Jason brought a bazooka to this little dustup.

Jason showing an interesting side to his personality there. That's a pretty cold putdown.

Putdown? More like retort. I mean Shanks wrote an entire article questioning his passion and desire to play baseball and love of the game... compared him to Francoeur.

[BRule]

SAV, you really need to find Hawkins....his Shanks stories are priceless.

[The Chosen One]

SAV, you really need to find Hawkins....his Shanks stories are priceless.

I wonder if this is him:

NVM

[thewupk]

owned. love it

[drewdat]

It came from Shanks criticizing Heyward on the radio for not playing today after the injury last night.

Also indirectly how I found the forum, through the rabbit hole. Reading people making fun of Bill on Twitter -> finding the abandoned Scout board -> searching "mikeadams" Braves -> remembering getting an odd "forum changes" email a few days ago -> finding the invisionfree board and then over to here.

I tried to put Bill Shanks as my referral, but it sent an error message. Haters.

[parkvadawg]

Late to the party on this one. Great response from Jason. Really looking forward to how this plays out.

[CyYoung31]

Did Bill really criticize Heyward for not playing the day after a hamstring strain? Man, he's a tool.

[elmonthc]

owned. love it

I guess sav found you. He wouldnt shut up about getting you here. Whetes thewupk, we need thewupk.....

[BRule]

Did Bill really criticize Heyward for not playing the day after a hamstring strain? Man, he's a tool.

Tools take offense

[ChapelHillMatt]

Just now reading this

Love it!!!!

I don't guess Jason will be doing an interview for Bill any time soon.

[ChapelHillMatt]

Is Bill criticizing Matt Holliday as well?

Bill has always been this way, he thinks players should never miss time due to an injury. He bashed Chipper for his injuries as well if I recall.

[Gary82]

I just read Heyward's tweet! OMG. This man. I love this man.

[Gary82]

Bill is getting harassed on twitter.



BillShanks
‏@BillShanks
Name your top 3 college FB coaches and your top 3 NFL coaches - not your favorites but the BEST in both categories. http://www.foxsports1670.com


Todd Reinkemeyer ‏@Hipp0Toddamus 4h
.@BillShanks name your top 3 lazy black outfielders


Rope ‏@BravesNiinja 4h
@BillShanks you ride ***** in dobs motorcycle with ass less chaps

:happy0157::happy0157::happy0157:

[ChapelHillMatt]

As sensitive as he is, I can't imagine him taking this well.

[nsacpi]

Apparently one of the things Bill had to say today was this gem:

“Jeter has an excuse not to be in the lineup today. He’s 39. Not 23.”

[Gary82]

Wow. Bill is a dick.

[ChapelHillMatt]

Does Bill think 23 year old's are machines? They can get hurt too, lol

[jpx7]

“Jeter has an excuse not to be in the lineup today. He’s 39. Not 23.”

.

[BremanFan88]

Jason Heyward just went down as the greatest Brave ever.

[Runnin]

Did Bill really criticize Heyward for not playing the day after a hamstring strain? Man, he's a tool. Wow. Any idiot can see it makes sense to shut Jason down until after the AS break. I guess downplaying Heyward's value is now going to be Shanks' mission in life. I've always wanted Jason to succeed but not as much as I do now. I wonder how many new followers Jason has on Twiitter due to this.

Matt is right that Bill does not take criticism well. He and Patio can lick each other's wounds.

Jason has a very good eye for BS.

[BremanFan88]

I wonder how many new followers Jason has on Twiitter due to this.

I think the point of all of this is Bill trying to get more publicity. Pretty pathetic but there's no such thing as bad publicity...

[Runnin]

Pretty pathetic but there's no such thing as bad publicity...
You may be right but I wouldn't want to have to test that theory.

[Bj1133]

Never was a fan of Shanks, but this seems like someone just trying to stir the pot

[BRule]

Spam Shanks day on twitter? Sounds good to me

[yeezus]

I've trolled him twice on there the last few days.
I'm far from tapped out though. My only concern is I don't want to give the dope attention, which is all he wants.

[BRule]

He's VERY sensitive so if he gets spammed with trolling tweets he will freak out.

[yeezus]

He's VERY sensitive so if he gets spammed with trolling tweets he will freak out.

I'm sold.

[Julio3000]

#doesntlovebaseball

[Julio3000]

Feel free to jump in . . .

Fake Chip ‏@PantslessChip 21m
@BillShanks listed as day-to-day, nursing mild pride strain. #doesntlovebaseball
Expand Reply Delete Favorite More

Fake Chip ‏@PantslessChip 28m
@BillShanks is setting a good example for the Braves. Dude is clearly willing to play while butthurt. #doesntlovebaseball
Expand
Fake Chip ‏@PantslessChip 42m

Don't need a slide rule or advanced metrics to determine that @BillShanks got ethered by @JasonHeyward. #doesntlovebaseball
Expand
Fake Chip ‏@PantslessChip 1h

@BillShanks IYO, is Jason Heyward merely lazy, or lazy AND shiftless? #doesntlovebaseball
Expand

Fake Chip ‏@PantslessChip 1h
@BillShanks Y U no like acronyms? They're useful. Like, GTFO with the lame analysis. Or STFU, troll. #doesntlovebaseball

[AUTiger7222]

Feel free to jump in . . .

Fake Chip ‏@PantslessChip 21m
@BillShanks listed as day-to-day, nursing mild pride strain. #doesntlovebaseball
Expand Reply Delete Favorite More

Fake Chip ‏@PantslessChip 28m
@BillShanks is setting a good example for the Braves. Dude is clearly willing to play while butthurt. #doesntlovebaseball
Expand
Fake Chip ‏@PantslessChip 42m

Don't need a slide rule or advanced metrics to determine that @BillShanks got ethered by @JasonHeyward. #doesntlovebaseball
Expand
Fake Chip ‏@PantslessChip 1h

@BillShanks IYO, is Jason Heyward merely lazy, or lazy AND shiftless? #doesntlovebaseball
Expand

Fake Chip ‏@PantslessChip 1h
@BillShanks Y U no like acronyms? They're useful. Like, GTFO with the lame analysis. Or STFU, troll. #doesntlovebaseball

I just followed you.

[Julio3000]

What makes you think that's me?

;-)

[elmonthc]

What makes you think that's me?

;-)

Its probably brule.

[elmonthc]

Is this shanks v heyward celebrity deathmatch getting talked about in atlanta or is it just much ado abouth nothing on here?

[BRule]

Its probably brule.

Negative, I'd just hyperlink him to a giant penis.

[Bye Week]

I met Bill one time at the Winter Meetings in Nashville in the early years of his take over. We ate lunch and he took me around the media room and I got to meet a few guy like Kurkjian, DOB and Bowman. I also saw all the GM's and a few players(Cal Ripken ate next to us). It was a cool experience for me. He seemed like a nice enough guy that day.

That said, on the board Bill was always an arrogant ass to everyone that disagreed with him. He thought he was a dictator or something. I hate people that feel they need to prove they are the smartest person in the room and Bill always came across that way. Mike Adams used to own Bill in their argument but Bill used to come away thinking he was right when he rarely was. It was quite comical.

[NinersSBChamps]

I guess that was Julio talking to Bill on twitter? I have no idea what the # signs mean and why everyone has to be @ something.

[yeezus]

I guess that was Julio talking to Bill on twitter? I have no idea what the # signs mean and why everyone has to be @ something. tw

the # is a called a "hashtag", and it's used to track "trending" things on twitter. the @ is so it goes to someone's twitter handle.

[ChapelHillMatt]

I met Bill one time at the Winter Meetings in Nashville in the early years of his take over. We ate lunch and he took me around the media room and I got to meet a few guy like Kurkjian, DOB and Bowman. I also saw all the GM's and a few players(Cal Ripken ate next to us). It was a cool experience for me. He seemed like a nice enough guy that day.

That said, on the board Bill was always an arrogant ass to everyone that disagreed with him. He thought he was a dictator or something. I hate people that feel they need to prove they are the smartest person in the room and Bill always came across that way. Mike Adams used to own Bill in their argument but Bill used to come away thinking he was right when he rarely was. It was quite comical.

That sums up Bill very well. When you talked to him on the phone he seemed cool but when you talked to him online he was a jerk. I guess not everyone is cut out for message boards.

[acesfull86]

Can we get Shanks here? I miss the "ask Bill Shanks" threads.

[The Chosen One]

Am I the only one that gets a good laugh when I read the thread title and see the thumbs down image next to it?

[nsacpi]

Did Bill close his twitter account.

I was checking reactions to Heyward's catch and trying to see what Bill had to say and his account is no longer there. Did the catch push him over the edge?

[zitothebrave]

He hasn't tweeted in 17 hours. Maybe he and Patio drank themselves into oblivion.

[Julio3000]

Did Bill close his twitter account.

I was checking reactions to Heyward's catch and trying to see what Bill had to say and his account is no longer there. Did the catch push him over the edge?

Jason Heyward murdered it.

/profiling

[nsacpi]

Ah now I see his account again. His tweeting does seem a bit more subdued lately.

[gilesfan]

Not tweeting for 17 hours. OMG!

[Tapate50]

Not tweeting for 17 hours. OMG!

I think the better acronym (is it an acronym?) is really ZOMG!

[Julio3000]

Ah now I see his account again. His tweeting does seem a bit more subdued lately.

I have my doubts if he even loves Twitter.

[Tapate50]

I have my doubts if he even loves Twitter.

Excellent

[Orphan Black]

I'm in between on this...I tend to agree that Heyward has not come close to the expectations put on him, but it may have been unfair to put them on him in the first place.

Heyward still has issues that he seems to jam himself on inside pitches and he can't reach the outside pitch.

[gtcway]

I'm in between on this...I tend to agree that Heyward has not come close to the expectations put on him, but it may have been unfair to put them on him in the first place.

Heyward still has issues that he seems to jam himself on inside pitches and he can't reach the outside pitch.

It's not just expectations he isn't living up to, he still hasn't equaled or surpassed his rookie season, and he sure isn't going to be doing it this season. His offense isn't worthy of the multi-year deal some would sign him to. Even if he has a great year next year, I would be hesitant to offer him a multi-year deal. I'd like to see him hit well in back to back seasons before committing to a big deal. He needs to prove that he's not a streaky hitter.

[emk418]

It's not just expectations he isn't living up to, he still hasn't equaled or surpassed his rookie season, and he sure isn't going to be doing it this season. His offense isn't worthy of the multi-year deal some would sign him to. Even if he has a great year next year, I would be hesitant to offer him a multi-year deal. I'd like to see him hit well in back to back seasons before committing to a big deal. He needs to prove that he's not a streaky hitter.

The most frustrating part of his struggles is that he clearly has major issues with his hands before his swing. He has way too much movement and is never in a good position to hit. He can't hit an inside pitch hard at all. I'm confident that if he just stops with all the excess hand movement and simplifies his mechanics, he will be fine.

[BremanFan88]

It's not just expectations he isn't living up to, he still hasn't equaled or surpassed his rookie season,

Um...Is everyone just ignoring the monster year he had last season? I love how his walk % is good, his K's have gone way down and his LD% is at an all time high. Nothing but positive things. You can't guide a baseball to find holes. Truly the 23 year old has no upside.

[Perfect Cell]

It's not just expectations he isn't living up to, he still hasn't equaled or surpassed his rookie season, and he sure isn't going to be doing it this season. His offense isn't worthy of the multi-year deal some would sign him to. Even if he has a great year next year, I would be hesitant to offer him a multi-year deal. I'd like to see him hit well in back to back seasons before committing to a big deal. He needs to prove that he's not a streaky hitter.

his last year surpassed his rookie season

[zitothebrave]

Um...Is everyone just ignoring the monster year he had last season? I love how his walk % is good, his K's have gone way down and his LD% is at an all time high. Nothing but positive things. You can't guide a baseball to find holes. Truly the 23 year old has no upside.

While Heyward is unlucky (someone with his speed should never have a BABIP of .250) the is a reason to be concerned with his production this year. It's his power. He is having a very un-Hetward power season.

[thethe]

I don't see how anyone can be comfortable with the year Heyward is having. I still feel he will be a good player but **** the guy has to start showing it more consistently.

[Runnin]

The "Heyward is unlucky" line is far past its expiration date. It's almost August.

I think the camera guys and the production purposely try not to focus on Heyward's ugly bat gripping ticks but's so pronounced it's hard not to talk about it when you look at it. Joe Simpson must be on strict orders not to harp on it. Not only does he wear himself out re-gripping before the pitch but when the ball starts coming he completely re-grips again and goes to a totally different hand position.

Why can't he just grip it softly and get into that position to begin with???

[mcollier]

I don't know whether Heyward will ever live up to the expectations we've pinned on him. I mean, come on. Your first Opening Day and you're catching the first pitch from Hank Aaron and driving a home run out in your first at-bat? The expectations went through the roof.

Whether he will be the next Aaron isn't clear, yet. But in looking for old video to see if his bat grip had changed since that rookie year, I found this video from ESPN's E:60. I don't know how I missed it, but it gives me a new perspective on Jason and a new reason to root for him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0kcKvWZyoQ

[zitothebrave]

The "Heyward is unlucky" line is far past its expiration date. It's almost August.

I think the camera guys and the production purposely try not to focus on Heyward's ugly bat gripping ticks but's so pronounced it's hard not to talk about it when you look at it. Joe Simpson must be on strict orders not to harp on it. Not only does he wear himself out re-gripping before the pitch but when the ball starts coming he completely re-grips again and goes to a totally different hand position.

Why can't he just grip it softly and get into that position to begin with???

So players can't be unlucky for extended periods of time?

Let me relay some facts to you, only Braves related

Of our regulars (guys with 100+ PA) Heyward has the 6th highest LD% only guys still on the team with higher are Freeman, Johnson, and Mac. Now remember 6th highest LD%. Of that same group, Heyward is 10th in BABIP. Ignoring that Heyward should be reaching safely on more grounders cause of his speed than Mac, Freeman or Johnson, ignoring that, guys who have high LD% usually have high BABIP like Freeman and Johnson. Heyward doesn't. That's pretty easy to construe as being unlucky. It's not like he's being like Simmons or Bossman who're hitting 20% Infield Flys. Sure there's reasons to be concerned with Heyward (power related) but there's also plenty of reasons to be OK with his offensive production knowing that he should have a higher BABIP and shoudl have more hits.

[Runnin]

So players can't be unlucky for extended periods of time?
No, you can't only be unlucky for more than half of a season. By the end of July there's also some good luck mixed in with the bad luck. You can be unlucky for a while, then start pressing and get in a rut and develop and/or exacerbate some bat habits. But you can't call all of that the result of being unlucky.

[nsacpi]

No, you can't only be unlucky for more than half of a season. By the end of July there's also some good luck mixed in with the bad luck. You can be unlucky for a while, then start pressing and get in a rut and develop and/or exacerbate some bat habits. But you can't call all of that the result of being unlucky.

From a statistical point of view the more observations (at bats) the more likely the overall numbers reflect a players underlying abilities. However, even with large samples there will be a few players in either tail (the very unlucky and very lucky).

[zitothebrave]

No, you can't only be unlucky for more than half of a season. By the end of July there's also some good luck mixed in with the bad luck. You can be unlucky for a while, then start pressing and get in a rut and develop and/or exacerbate some bat habits. But you can't call all of that the result of being unlucky.

Well the good luck pulled Heyward's numbers from abysmal to league averageish. He's still on the bad luck side of things. For example, it's been over half a season and Chris Johnson still has a BABIP over .400. There's no way he stays that high in a larger sample, but he's there at this point, what's the explanation? Good luck. Heyward since coming back from his injury has a .737 OPS, not great by any stretch of the imagination but considering over that time he has a BABIP of .289 I think that's more of an indication of how his numbers should be on the year. Still concern because his power isn't there, if he had his iso from last year and his BABIP from last year this could be his line

.284/.356/.494

If he was doing that not a soul would complain. He's having 2 issues, one is bad luck other is lack of power, the latter is a real concern, his average isn't.

[Tapate50]

Well the good luck pulled Heyward's numbers from abysmal to league averageish. He's still on the bad luck side of things. For example, it's been over half a season and Chris Johnson still has a BABIP over .400. There's no way he stays that high in a larger sample, but he's there at this point, what's the explanation? Good luck. Heyward since coming back from his injury has a .737 OPS, not great by any stretch of the imagination but considering over that time he has a BABIP of .289 I think that's more of an indication of how his numbers should be on the year. Still concern because his power isn't there, if he had his iso from last year and his BABIP from last year this could be his line

.284/.356/.494

If he was doing that not a soul would complain. He's having 2 issues, one is bad luck other is lack of power, the latter is a real concern, his average isn't.

Dude,

His power didn't just evaporate. His lack of power is caused by something probably some type of bad habit or trying to muscle pitches with his arms. I don't know, I am no hitting coach. But, that same bad habit probably contributes to a low BABIP because he isn't hitting anything with any authority. I have it on good authority that the Turner Field crew is having to resod the area from home to the 2B because he has chopped the dirt out with those 10 hoppers to second.

Ok that last part was a fib. My point is, the power and poor contact are a product of him being not being in sync. Maybe those LD% are the choppers to 2nd. Maybe there is too much lift on em. Lets not act like he has just been slapping rockets around...because that isn't true.

[Metaphysicist]

No, you can't only be unlucky for more than half of a season. By the end of July there's also some good luck mixed in with the bad luck. You can be unlucky for a while, then start pressing and get in a rut and develop and/or exacerbate some bat habits. But you can't call all of that the result of being unlucky.

Well, we've played ~3.5 months of baseball. Heyward missed ~ one month, and was excellent for ~ one month. So we are really only talking about being unlucky for ~ a month and a half, not "more than half of a season."

[zitothebrave]

Dude,

His power didn't just evaporate. His lack of power is caused by something probably some type of bad habit or trying to muscle pitches with his arms. I don't know, I am no hitting coach. But, that same bad habit probably contributes to a low BABIP because he isn't hitting anything with any authority. I have it on good authority that the Turner Field crew is having to resod the area from home to the 2B because he has chopped the dirt out with those 10 hoppers to second.

Ok that last part was a fib. My point is, the power and poor contact are a product of him being not being in sync. Maybe those LD% are the choppers to 2nd. Maybe there is too much lift on em. Lets not act like he has just been slapping rockets around...because that isn't true.

I'm no economist, but the recession is caused by angel pee.

Heyward is hitting over 20% line drives. On line drives alone he should have about 35 hits or so plus his 7 homers that means his other 155 non infield fly balls resulted in 16 hits. Think about that number. If you do the same elementary math for say Chris Johnson and he has 47 hits or so on line drives plus 6 homers meaning on his other 159 AB that weren't IFFB he had 43 hits. Again think about that

Is Chris Johnson doing anything more spectacular than Heyward? No not really. Is his swing less "muscly" not really. Some guys have luck some years, some guys don't

[50PoundHead]

I think Heyward's problem is that his hands seem to be way ahead of his hips. To me, and I don't watch as much as I used to, he saws himself off a lot. He's just out of sync. That would at least partially explain the decline in his power numbers.

[BravesfanMike]

He also tucks his left elbow in when he should be extending his arms

[Tapate50]

I'm no economist, but the recession is caused by angel pee.

Heyward is hitting over 20% line drives. On line drives alone he should have about 35 hits or so plus his 7 homers that means his other 155 non infield fly balls resulted in 16 hits. Think about that number. If you do the same elementary math for say Chris Johnson and he has 47 hits or so on line drives plus 6 homers meaning on his other 159 AB that weren't IFFB he had 43 hits. Again think about that

Is Chris Johnson doing anything more spectacular than Heyward? No not really. Is his swing less "muscly" not really. Some guys have luck some years, some guys don't

So fake numbers + made up numbers = fake numbers we should be happy with

Got it. I think?

Johnson has been hitting the ball way better than Heyward. Heyward has NOT been hitting 1/5 balls as line drives. That just isn't accurate.

[zitothebrave]

So fake numbers + made up numbers = fake numbers we should be happy with

Got it. I think?

Johnson has been hitting the ball way better than Heyward. Heyward has NOT been hitting 1/5 balls as line drives. That just isn't accurate.

I'd like to see your data refuting the data that was independently collected.

[Tapate50]

I'd like to see your data refuting the data that was independently collected.

If your are asking if i have seen Heyward hit over 20% line drives this year the answer would be no, and I wouldn't say it's close.

They must have an expansive definition of ld

[zitothebrave]

If your are asking if i have seen Heyward hit over 20% line drives this year the answer would be no, and I wouldn't say it's close.

They must have an expansive definition of ld

Oh so your "expert" opinion is better than tracked data.

Lovely.

[jpx7]

That just isn't accurate.

Prove it.

[yeezus]

If your are asking if i have seen Heyward hit over 20% line drives this year the answer would be no, and I wouldn't say it's close.

They must have an expansive definition of ld

hootie hoooo

[Runnin]

Heyward missed ~ one month, and was excellent for ~ one month."
Don't you mean that month where he was lucky?

[Tapate50]

Oh so your "expert" opinion is better than tracked data.

Lovely.
My uneducated opinion is that Heyward hasn't been good. I stated that I am no hitting coach. I watch 90% of the games and cannot say with any certainty that he has hit over 20% of what I would consider line drives . If he is hitting that many that are truly line drives they must not have much on them or too much lift was what I said. The low "luck" factor and power shortage are likely related. In short he hasn't put up those numbers, so all this but and ifs dot mean squat. The numbers are what they are, and what he has contributed to the team and that's what counts.

In the end you can't argue that Heyward has been good at the plate so I'm not sure how I'm wrong. I am hard on Heyward because without him we go nowhere.

[Tapate50]

I consider a line drive the shot J Upton hit right at the SS. i think it was last night.

[yeezus]

My uneducated opinion is that Heyward hasn't been good. I stated that I am no hitting coach. I watch 90% of the games and cannot say with any certainty that he has hit over 20% of what I would consider line drives . If he is hitting that many that are truly line drives they must not have much on them or too much lift was what I said. The low "luck" factor and power shortage are likely related. In short he hasn't put up those numbers, so all this but and ifs dot mean squat. The numbers are what they are, and what he has contributed to the team and that's what counts.

In the end you can't argue that Heyward has been good at the plate so I'm not sure how I'm wrong. I am hard on Heyward because without him we go nowhere.

You're wrong because you said Heyward hasn't hit 20% line drives, when in fact the people who keep stats for every player in the league equally have him at 20%. So I'm not sure how you're not wrong as far as that goes.

[Tapate50]

You're wrong because you said Heyward hasn't hit 20% line drives, when in fact the people who keep stats for every player in the league equally have him at 20%. So I'm not sure how you're not wrong as far as that goes.

Heyward must got 4-4 in those games I miss, but I don't see him rocketing 1/5 while I'm watching. Zito is telling me he is hitting OVER 20% LD . I find that surprising and my definition if line drive and theirs must be very different.

Regardless , I'm not giving heyward hits like Zeets does to justify his performance. I cant add stuff that does not happen and just say "he is fine". The world doesn't work that way. And that doesn't help the team .

[jpx7]

I cant add stuff that does not happen and just say "he is fine". The world doesn't work that way. And that doesn't help the team.

Unlike your continuous harping on Heyward, which benefits the team greatly.

[Tapate50]

Unlike your continuous harping on Heyward, which benefits the team greatly.

Harping on the harper, cool stuff kettle

Now tell me how that helped?

And what does anything we do on this message board do to help the team???!!! Is Sav funneling funds to Wren for a Fredi mutiny? Are we analyzing Simmons throws from SS to make them more efficient ? Are we helping Heyward love baseball more?

[jpx7]

Are we helping Heyward love baseball more?

Impossible.

[Julio3000]

I think Heyward's problem is that his hands seem to be way ahead of his hips. To me, and I don't watch as much as I used to, he saws himself off a lot. He's just out of sync. That would at least partially explain the decline in his power numbers.

That's what it looks like to me, too. Not that I have any idea of what to do about it.

He looks like he's pressing right now, too. Yesterday he took a huge cut at a 3-1 pitch that was nowhere close. That's not really his jawn, normally.

[CyYoung31]

Well, we've played ~3.5 months of baseball. Heyward missed ~ one month, and was excellent for ~ one month. So we are really only talking about being unlucky for ~ a month and a half, not "more than half of a season."

Thank you.

[gtcway]

his last year surpassed his rookie season

I can see an argument for equaling, but not surpassing. Only thing he was better at was hitting home runs.

[GovClintonTyree]

That's what it looks like to me, too. Not that I have any idea of what to do about it.

He looks like he's pressing right now, too. Yesterday he took a huge cut at a 3-1 pitch that was nowhere close. That's not really his jawn, normally.

Both very astute observations. When Heyward gets it going, it's a beautiful thing.

I have a little theory about that. He's so LONG. Arms, legs...if he's the least bit out of sync, it shows. Which puts a premium on his swing being simple, and staying tuned up. Appendectomies hurt that; so do hamstrings. I noticed he's simplified his pre-swing hand waggle, which is a good start. When he goes to left, good stuff is coming...

He hasn't put it all together, and he may yet. The walk rate is back up this year. High LD, low BABip. I do expect more, but I think we'll get it.

[Dalyn]

To me, Heyward hasn't been the same since he took a small step back in the box. He can no longer drive those outside pitches to left. Some of the 'bull****' strikes against him only look that way because of where he is standing. Those aren't outside, sadly.

[emk418]

To me, Heyward hasn't been the same since he took a small step back in the box. He can no longer drive those outside pitches to left. Some of the 'bull****' strikes against him only look that way because of where he is standing. Those aren't outside, sadly.

IMO, all of Heywards problems are because of his hands.

[Julio3000]

IMO, all of Heywards problems are because of his hands.

You should see how often he readjusts his grip on the pipe.

[Mrs. Meta]

You should see how often he readjusts his grip on the pipe.

Oh, he's a plumber!

...but plumbers don't wear ties! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjMAG5IDnek)

[Julio3000]

Oh, he's a plumber!

...but plumbers don't wear ties! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjMAG5IDnek)

His affinity for joints and pipe dope are well known.

[Tino25Dynasty]

It really is a question of "How long do we wait?" with Heyward... The Braves felt they had seen (and heard) enough of Franceour thinking he wasn't going to be that player we all thought he was going to be... So far, they seem to be right

Basically right now, with Heyward, we're kinda doing the same thing. We're wondering "is he just not going to be as good as we thought he was gonna be" or "Is he STILL just trying to find himself at the big leagues and he'll put it together"

Some take longer than others... Bernie Williams always comes to mind for me. But I don't think we have till Heyward hits 28 years old.

I'd say if he's still doing what he's doing now at mid-season next year, ya HAVE TO think about trades.... Because it will have been his 5th season. And for all the talent we know he has, he just might not be able to get it together for us in time. He may be nothing more than a .240 avg, 15 to 20 homer, 70 RBI guy who plays good defense for his career. Instead of the 5 tool player we all thought he'd have a great chance to turn out to be.

[yeezus]

I just don't think it's anywhere near time to give up on a guy with the skills Heyward has. Not even close.

[CyYoung31]

It really is a question of "How long do we wait?" with Heyward... The Braves felt they had seen (and heard) enough of Franceour thinking he wasn't going to be that player we all thought he was going to be... So far, they seem to be right

Basically right now, with Heyward, we're kinda doing the same thing. We're wondering "is he just not going to be as good as we thought he was gonna be" or "Is he STILL just trying to find himself at the big leagues and he'll put it together"

Some take longer than others... Bernie Williams always comes to mind for me. But I don't think we have till Heyward hits 28 years old.

I'd say if he's still doing what he's doing now at mid-season next year, ya HAVE TO think about trades.... Because it will have been his 5th season. And for all the talent we know he has, he just might not be able to get it together for us in time. He may be nothing more than a .240 avg, 15 to 20 homer, 70 RBI guy who plays good defense for his career. Instead of the 5 tool player we all thought he'd have a great chance to turn out to be.

Wat

[Perfect Cell]

TRading heyward is a move for an idiot

[BravesBlock]

TRading heyward is a move for an idiot
Depends on what player or players are coming back in the deal.

[Perfect Cell]

Unless its Giancarlo Stanton i dont really think theres a deal for Heyward you even consider

[yeezus]

Right, the point is.. no one is going to give you what you want for him because he's struggled. When he's not struggling, he's worth the world but no one wants to trade him when he's raking. Hence why he won't get traded and we should give him a lot more time.

[zitothebrave]

Unless its Giancarlo Stanton i dont really think theres a deal for Heyward you even consider

Well Trout or maybe Harvey.

[Gary82]

Oh, he's a plumber!

...but plumbers don't wear ties! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjMAG5IDnek)

I'm ashamed that I know what this is.