Donaldson and Pandora’s Box

[TheBravos]

I have been in the “Don’t go four years!!” camp since the beginning. I am now starting to ponder if that’s the right decision.

We have watched Bumgarner and Ryu both get four year deals (which is kinda crazy), but one thing I have noticed....they signed for less per year than what was originally projected. I now think we should go ahead and give him the forth year if that’s what it takes assuming we get a little more reasonable rate by adding the forth year. I feel like we are his number one choice.

If we do not, AA will not stand pat. This will most likely cost us one of Pache, Waters or Anderson and definitely Riley. I would be ok with a Riley trade, but Waters, Pache and Anderson have such high ceilings....we almost have to give them another year of development to see what they do. I do think we need to make some trades and clear some pitching spots. but with the 3rd baseman market dwindling....anyone with a great 3rd baseman would be crazy to not ask for one of our top three. I truly think Pache, Waters & to a bit lesser extent Anderson...are special. With the international limits and now picking lower in the draft...it makes these guys that much more valuable. Because they will be dirt cheap for years and if one of the three ends up being an all star (which is very likely)...that kind of production on a payroll limited team would be even more valuable to us.

Sign JD, hold on to BOTH Waters and Pache. Spend a extra $25 mil and roll the dice(maybe JD stays healthy and produces at least three of the four years), because doing that could very well save us $50-$100 mil. in value for years to come.

[Coredor]

I agree. I don’t think it will turn out to be a terrible deal either way. Unless we really believe in Riley he’s probably our best option. He could be the last piece needed to be a serious contender in the near future.

[BeanieAntics]

I'm willing to give Donaldson the fourth year, but the most I'd be willing to give him is ~100 million. I'd also prefer to have some of that money deferred, but that point isn't a dealbreaker.

[The Chosen One]

We have Greene and Melancon's money coming off after this season. So maybe backload it.

[BeanieAntics]

We have Greene and Melancon's money coming off after this season. So maybe backload it.

I want zero part of backloading a contract to Donaldson if it can be avoided. If anything, I'd want to front load the contract so his pay stays more proportional with his actual production. The only way I'd think about backloading a deal to him is if we simply didn't have the money to pay him the contract's AAV in 2019. But if we can fit Donaldson into our budget with a frontloaded contract, that would be the ideal scenario imo.

[The Chosen One]

I want zero part of backloading a contract to Donaldson if it can be avoided. If anything, I'd want to front load the contract so his pay stays more proportional with his actual production. The only way I'd think about backloading a deal to him is if we simply didn't have the money to pay him the contract's AAV in 2019. But if we can fit Donaldson into our budget with a frontloaded contract, that would be the ideal scenario imo.

We could probably fit him but not have the flexibility to do anything at the deadline.

If we give him a little bit more next year and in year 3 then it could work. Only problem is we have guys like Soroka who are gonna start being expensive in arb years in a few years.

[nsacpi]

It is tempting to give in to the belief that one player will make the difference. That is almost always not the case. AA needs to continue focusing relentlessly on value and on preserving flexibility.

[Snowman]

It is tempting to give in to the belief that one player will make the difference. That is almost always not the case. AA needs to continue focusing relentlessly on value and on preserving flexibility.

When the difference is between Markakis or someone competent batting fourth, one player makes a hell of a difference.

[thewupk]

When the difference is between Markakis or someone competent batting fourth, one player makes a hell of a difference.

Neck will be in the middle of the lineup regardless. And if he only faces righties should do pretty well there.

[TheBravos]

It is tempting to give in to the belief that one player will make the difference. That is almost always not the case. AA needs to continue focusing relentlessly on value and on preserving flexibility.

The more I have thought about it, the more I feel that if we do not sign JD back...the ripple effect will be felt for years. I think “that” could be worse than a year or two with a fading Donaldson making 20+mil.

I have come full circle.

[Enscheff]

A 4 year deal for JD obviously boosts the Braves chances now at the expense of wins 3-4 years from now. That’s perfectly acceptable, and is a trade off every single contender has to make.

Having JD able to shift to 1b or DH in the future is a viable plan, and is why teams no longer pay premium dollars for 1b/DH types.

[TheBravos]

A 4 year deal for JD obviously boosts the Braves chances now at the expense of wins 3-4 years from now. That’s perfectly acceptable, and is a trade off every single contender has to make.

Having JD able to shift to 1b or DH in the future is a viable plan, and is why teams no longer pay premium dollars for 1b/DH types.

I just think not signing JD, means trading a Pache or Waters if it’s going to be a real impact bat. What’s the surplus value on that? $75 mil?

[Enscheff]

Not even close to $75M

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

Pache is a 60, Waters is a 55.

[TheBravos]

Not even close to $75M

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

Pache is a 60, Waters is a 55.

So about $55 mil for just one, but you would likely be adding another prospect also right? So maybe $60 mil?

[Enscheff]

Well ideally they don’t give up Pache or Waters or Anderson. That’s kinda the whole point...to get a deal that’s better than just paying JD.

[TheBravos]

Well ideally they don’t give up Pache or Waters or Anderson. That’s kinda the whole point...to get a deal that’s better than just paying JD.

If that happened...that’s great. I don’t see us getting the impact bat we need with just Riley though.

[blueagleace1]

I'm all aboard giving JD a 4th year if that's what it takes but IF we do lose out on him I keep coming back to one team and trade that could/would solve our issues...

Trading for Seager and Haniger would give us what we need and I don't think would cost as much as Bryant or Arenado.

[Freshmaker]

Another obvious to simply resigning JD is that it keeps him off the Nats and leaves them with a 3B hole

[bravesfanMatt]

Another obvious to simply resigning JD is that it keeps him off the Nats and leaves them with a 3B hole

They have better internal options over us.

[BeanieAntics]

They have better internal options over us.

Who? Noll? Kieboom?

Noll is pretty uninspiring and if Kieboom plays 3rd then it leaves pretty uninspiring options at either 2nd or 1st, depending on where they play Kendrick. I'm no huge fan of Riley or Camargo starting at 3rd base, but I'd take them over Noll or whoever else the Nats have for 3rd base.

[bravesfanMatt]

Who? Noll? Kieboom?

Noll is pretty uninspiring and if Kieboom plays 3rd then it leaves pretty uninspiring options at either 2nd or 1st, depending on where they play Kendrick. I'm no huge fan of Riley or Camargo starting at 3rd base, but I'd take them over Noll or whoever else the Nats have for 3rd base.

Kaboom is a better prospect over Riley. Sure this year could be patch work but going forward kaboom is a legit player. If he pans out it could be that he is better than Josh in year 3 and 4 of the deal. I am simply saying that keeping J from the gnats is not a viable reason to sign him with an overpay

[Enscheff]

Boom is a potential impact bat who is already projected to produce 2-3 wins in his rookie season at 3b. The Nats also have Kendrick on board to play 3b/2b, and he is pretty much a lock for 2-3 wins.

They can patch together some sort of cheap 2 win platoon at 1b if they miss out on JD. They can also acquire a bat at 3b, 2b or 1b due to the versatility of guys like Boom and Kendrick. They did a good job replacing Harper with Soto, and will probably do a good job again replacing Rendon with Boom.

The Braves pretty much need JD, Bryant, or a massive downgrade at 3b from 2019. They have painted themselves into a spot where the only place to add an impact bat easily is at 3b. The Braves backup plans to pair with Camargo vanished when Mous and Shaw were signed.

[TheBravos]

Boom is a potential impact bat who is already projected to produce 2-3 wins in his rookie season at 3b. The Nats also have Kendrick on board to play 3b/2b, and he is pretty much a lock for 2-3 wins.

They can patch together some sort of cheap 2 win platoon at 1b if they miss out on JD. They can also acquire a bat at 3b, 2b or 1b due to the versatility of guys like Boom and Kendrick. They did a good job replacing Harper with Soto, and will probably do a good job again replacing Rendon with Boom.

The Braves pretty much need JD, Bryant, or a massive downgrade at 3b from 2019. They have painted themselves into a spot where the only place to add an impact bat easily is at 3b. The Braves backup plans to pair with Camargo vanished when Mous and Shaw were signed.

This is why I changed my opinion. We now either pay a little more than what JD is worth or ALOT more in prospects.

I’m all for us making a trade from pitching depth, but not from our top position players. I get a sick feeling about trading Pache or Waters. Last time I had that feeling was the HO trade.

[Heyward]

Yeah Nats have some options. Kieboom, maybe trade for Seager, Kendrick can play all over. And they still have a front 3 of Corbin/Stras/Max which is as good as anyone has in baseball.

Their bullpen is a bigger concern to me than 3B. You can get away with only using Doo, Hudson, and one of your SP's in the playoffs as a RP, but not through 162. Braves are in a bigger mess if they dont keep JD, because there's not many options to fill the 3B slot unless AA surprises and gets Arenado.

[Enscheff]

I'm all aboard giving JD a 4th year if that's what it takes but IF we do lose out on him I keep coming back to one team and trade that could/would solve our issues...

Trading for Seager and Haniger would give us what we need and I don't think would cost as much as Bryant or Arenado.

I think Seager could be Plan C after JD and KB.

He is owed 3/52 if traded, and is projected to be something between Shaw and Mous...both of whom were fallback options to pair with Camargo. He carries negative surplus value, so the Ms would have to kick in cash or add a prospect just to move him.

Haniger has 3 years of arb remaining, and would fit nicely as a cOF on this roster. Adding him to Seager would lower the prospect package needed to acquire him by a good bit.

Seager for 3 years isn’t a great spot to be in, but buying low on Haniger would be nice.

Seager and Haniger plus cash for Riley and an arm could make sense for both teams. Of course, I’m the low man on Riley, so I’m looking to cash him in for anything of value from any team dumb enough to do it.

[blueagleace1]

I think Seager could be Plan C after JD and KB.

He is owed 3/52 if traded, and is projected to be something between Shaw and Mous...both of whom were fallback options to pair with Camargo. He carries negative surplus value, so the Ms would have to kick in cash or add a prospect just to move him.

Haniger has 3 years of arb remaining, and would fit nicely as a cOF on this roster. Adding him to Seager would lower the prospect package needed to acquire him by a good bit.

Seager for 3 years isn’t a great spot to be in, but buying low on Haniger would be nice.

Seager and Haniger plus cash for Riley and an arm could make sense for both teams. Of course, I’m the low man on Riley, so I’m looking to cash him in for anything of value from any team dumb enough to do it.

That was my thinking too, Seager would just be a means of acquiring Haniger without giving up our big 3. I actually think a Wilson/Camargo/Inciarte for Seager/Haniger makes sense for both teams. Could also expand the deal to include Mallex if you didn't feel comfortable with Acuna and Haniger manning CF until Pache is ready.

[Southcack77]

Seagar comes out better in the expected metrics.

That's not the worst solution and certainly pairing him with Haniger would upgrade two spots assuming health for both.

I don't think 19m/18m/15m is so bad, and maybe you could get him to waive the conversion of the third year.

I think it's certainly a more risky play than Bryant or Arenado in terms of him actually contributing in the present though. Same with Haniger.

[TheBravos]

That was my thinking too, Seager would just be a means of acquiring Haniger without giving up our big 3. I actually think a Wilson/Camargo/Inciarte for Seager/Haniger makes sense for both teams. Could also expand the deal to include Mallex if you didn't feel comfortable with Acuna and Haniger manning CF until Pache is ready.

This is the best trade scenario to me.


If they JD is asking for a 5TH year for big money...that definitely changes things.

[Enscheff]

5 years for JD? $125M?

At some point AA has to admit he misjudged the market for JD and move on to a Plan B.

[thewupk]

5 years for JD? $125M?

At some point AA has to admit he misjudged the market for JD and move on to a Plan B.

It sucks but they may need to before the fallback options are no longer there.

But I think he, along with a few players, misjudged the amount of money flowing this offseason. He did good to get Hamels when he did, IMO.

[nsacpi]

There are a number of fallback options for third. None as good as Donaldson. But that's why they are called fallback options.

[salmagundy]

5 years for JD? $125M?

At some point AA has to admit he misjudged the market for JD and move on to a Plan B.

Would that be akin to getting out of Donaldson's barrel,??

Put the lid back on the barrel and move on to a realistic move to fix the power bat needed and get Markakis/Duval platoon out of Snit's grasp.

[Heyward]

Not sure JD gets a contract with a 5th year option but if he does, god bless his agent. Even 4 seems risky, even with the DH likely coming to the NL.

[sc1767]

I wouldn't want to give him 4 years, even if I knew the NL had the DH in '23.

[clvclv]

There are a number of fallback options for third. None as good as Donaldson. But that's why they are called fallback options.

Needs to decide something soon regardless - his slow decision is keeping me from pulling the trigger on moves to pick up Camargo and Riley in a fantasy league.