Extending Soroka

Soroka is about to play out his final pre-arb season, and will then go through arbitration 4 times. The 5 remaining seasons of control cover his age 22-26 seasons. Now might be a good time to work on an extension.

As a comparison, we have the recent Nola and Severino extensions:

Nola
2019, Age 26, Arb 1 - $6M ($6.6M estimate)
2020, Age 27, Arb 2 - $8M
2021, Age 28, Arb 3 - $11.75M
2022, Age 29, FA 1 - $15M
2023, Age 30, FA 2 - $16M option ($4.25M buy out)

Severino
2019, Age 25, Arb 1 - $6M (Super Two, $5.1M estimate)
2020, Age 26, Arb 2 - $10M
2021, Age 27, Arb 3 - $10.25
2022, Age 28, Arb 4 - $11M
2023, Age 29, FA 1 - $15M option ($2.75M buyout)

Since Soroka is not yet arb eligible, the Braves should have a bit more leverage to guarantee less money and/or gain control over more years. His extremely young age will probably counteract that to some degree.

A Soroka extension right now probably looks like:

2020, Age 22, Pre-Arb - $1M
2021, Age 23, Arb 1 - $5M (Super Two)
2022, Age 24, Arb 2 - $10M
2023, Age 25, Arb 3 - $10.25
2024, Age 26, Arb 4 - $11M
2025, Age 27, FA 1 - $15M
2026, Age 28, FA 2 - $16M option ($4M buyout)

Maybe another option or 2.

This deal for 6 guaranteed years would set a precedent, so the Braves may wait until next offseason and give him a 5 year deal.

Maybe making more money means Snit will use him twice in a playoff series next time as opposed to once.

Seems like a lot of money to spend on a number 3 starter. I mean obviously he’s not a guy you want pitching in a big spot in the playoffs.

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Originally Posted by The Chosen One

Maybe making more money means Snit will use him twice in a playoff series next time as opposed to once.

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Wasn’t this an analytics driven move if memory serves ?

I just can’t get passed this.

I mean I will, but it will take time.

It’s the Kimbrel thing at the LAD all over again

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Originally Posted by Tapate50

Wasn’t this an analytics driven move if memory serves ?

I just can’t get passed this.

I mean I will, but it will take time.

It’s the Kimbrel thing at the LAD all over again

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not that i know of. and the Kimbrel thing certainly wasn't.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Tapate50

Wasn’t this an analytics driven move if memory serves ?

I just can’t get passed this.

I mean I will, but it will take time.

It’s the Kimbrel thing at the LAD all over again

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It was a "he pitches better on the road" thing, which I'm hesitant to believe came from any analytics team worth a damn. It's not like giving the first 2 games to DK/Folty was indefensible though.

They lost because the middle of the order took October off.

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

It was a "he pitches better on the road" thing, which I'm hesitant to believe came from any analytics team worth a damn. It's not like giving the first 2 games to DK/Folty was indefensible though.

They lost because the middle of the order took October off.

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Yeah. Beating this horse is dumb to me. Folty having the worst start of his career in game 5 sucked but the pitching and pitching choices is not the reason we lost to the Cards.

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Originally Posted by thewupk

Yeah. Beating this horse is dumb to me. Folty having the worst start of his career in game 5 sucked but the pitching and pitching choices is not the reason we lost to the Cards.

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It's also important to review exactly what happened in that 1st inning before blaming it on a Folty meltdown.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

It's also important to review exactly what happened in that 1st inning before blaming it on a Folty meltdown.

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Yeah. Freeman continuing the worst series of his career didn't help either.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by thewupk

Yeah. Beating this horse is dumb to me. Folty having the worst start of his career in game 5 sucked but the pitching and pitching choices is not the reason we lost to the Cards.

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I do feel like Soroka game 1 likely does better and goes longer than DK. Whether we would have won it still is impossible to know.

The bigger issue, imo, was losing Martin. That basically forced us into using Fried as a reliever for multiple games and losing his ability to start game 4. With how well he was pitching down the stretch and considering how well he pitched before game 5, I feel pretty confident he would have pitched a gem if given the start in game 4.

Thank you. I like this.

Seems like risk sharing. Soroka is guaranteed life changing money. He has had some injury history and his position is scary for long term bets. But the Braves get some cost certainty. He still hits the market at a time to get another big pay day.

i didn't really understand using DK vs a RH heavy lineup. Soroka getting one of the first 2 games made a lot of sense to me.

Interesting to note but, did he end up burning essentially a full year of service time last year due to the injury? It's interesting to reflect on because it would have been different if it had occured while he was pitching in the minors last year instead.

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Originally Posted by NYCBrave

Interesting to note but, did he end up burning essentially a full year of service time last year due to the injury? It's interesting to reflect on because it would have been different if it had occured while he was pitching in the minors last year instead.

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Yes: Soroka accrued ML service-time while on the DL in 2018. Such are the risks with pitchers.