Historic Run Prevention

In honor of the recent article about the Cubs and their current historic run prevention season:

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/200908...un-prevention/

It uses ERA- which is scaled like WRC+ and OPS+. So for the Cubs current 74 ERA- they are 26% better at preventing runs than the league average. So really this is a good stat to show a teams defense and pitching ability compared to the league.

So here is a look at where the Braves teams place in the top 10 since WW2.


2: 93 Braves - 75 (current gold standard depending on how the Cubs finish)
3: 97 Braves - 76
6: 02 Braves - 77
8: 98 Braves - 78 (imo the best overall team of the run)


No surprise that the streak yielded multiple teams in the top 10. Braves certainly were modeled around pitching and defense. Hopefully we can get back to that.

Seems to me the Cubs are chasing run prevention by paying for defense rather than paying for elite pitching. It will be interesting to see how that method holds up as defensive value tends to decline at a younger age than offensive value. It does make sense to invest in defense rather than pitching though considering how often pitchers get injured.

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

Seems to me the Cubs are chasing run prevention by paying for defense rather than paying for elite pitching. It will be interesting to see how that method holds up as defensive value tends to decline at a younger age than offensive value. It does make sense to invest in defense rather than pitching though considering how often pitchers get injured.

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I mean, their pitching is sick, too.

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

Seems to me the Cubs are chasing run prevention by paying for defense rather than paying for elite pitching. It will be interesting to see how that method holds up as defensive value tends to decline at a younger age than offensive value. It does make sense to invest in defense rather than pitching though considering how often pitchers get injured.

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Pretty confusing, actually. Their lack of investment stems from guys (other than Lester) who either signed below-market deals (Lackey and Hamel) or who haven't reached free-agency yet (the rest of them - including Arrieta, Chapman, and Hendricks).

That level of "investment" is sure to change drastically with Arrieta due a huge raise in arbitration and Chapman becoming a free-agent. They definitely don't have replacement options for either of them on the way. It's not like they can't afford it, but the roster cost for them is sure to explode for them soon.

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Originally Posted by clvclv

Pretty confusing, actually. Their lack of investment stems from guys (other than Lester) who either signed below-market deals (Lackey and Hamel) or who haven't reached free-agency yet (the rest of them - including Arrieta, Chapman, and Hendricks).

That level of "investment" is sure to change drastically with Arrieta due a huge raise in arbitration and Chapman becoming a free-agent. They definitely don't have replacement options for either of them on the way. It's not like they can't afford it, but the roster cost for them is sure to explode for them soon.

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That's the thing, their strategy may be to avoid paying for premium pitching and instead prevent runs by paying for defense. Probably why they haven't seriously tried to extend Arrieta.

obviously there is a balance of Defense and Pitching that makes your overall all pitching 'ERA' (and what ever other stat you want to use)..

a lot of people discount defense as not that impactful and I usually stay away from those debates because I just don't agree. having a great defensive club is not measurable. you prevent a 1 to 3, or SS makes a great play, or a guy like Tron with a cannon arm where guys would not try to score when he was the cut off man, or a 1b that can pick it, saving errors... These things add up and change the course of a game more than just that one instance. Think about this.. 1 ball 1 strike.. pitch is right on the outside corner and called a ball.. That one call completely changes the course of the AB.. so, something simple like a ball hit into the hole not fielded, or a 1st to 3rd on a line drive to right because you have a Neck arm could easily change the complex of a game by shaking confidence and flow... especially in a young pitcher.

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

That's the thing, their strategy may be to avoid paying for premium pitching and instead prevent runs by paying for defense. Probably why they haven't seriously tried to extend Arrieta.

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It could be, but we don't have an indication yet that is the case. They found themselves in a situation where they have great pitching but don't have to pay for it relative to the results yet. That doesn't mean they won't spend on pitching, but why do it if you don't have to?

They do definitely value defense, but I would assume they also value pitching, at least as much as they value defense.

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Originally Posted by smootness

I mean, their pitching is sick, too.

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Any chance we could pry Baez or Solar away from them ? What would it cost