The 2015 Payroll Crunch: Implications for 2014

We have a bunch of players getting arbitration raises this off-season. The issue becomes even more pronounced next off-season. Players getting raises through the arbitration system over the next two off-seasons include: Heyward, Freeman, Kimbrel, Beachy, Medlen, Minor, Venters, Chris Johnson, Pena, Schafer, Walden, Carpenter. There is a chance Simmons will achieve Super 2 status next off-season. The total raises over the next two arbitration rounds for this group could easily top $50 mil. The larger increases will come next off-season.

We have a curious situation with respect to payroll flexibility. We have some this year, with the McCann, Hudson and Maholm contracts coming off the books. We will have some after 2015 with the current contracts of Dan Uggla and Justin Upton expiring, and Heyward, Medlen and Venters potentially hitting free agency. In between we have a tightly constrained situation for next post-season and the 2015 season.

I think the crunch coming up next post-season and the 2015 season is having a strong impact on how Frank Wren is approaching this off-season. He has to be looking for acquisitions that can help the team in 2014 without adding to payroll for 2015. Players on one-year deals. Those are very difficult to find on the free agent market. Even a guy like Phil Hughes, who was looking to rebuild his value, ended up getting a three year deal. Josh Johnson got a one-year deal with an option, but he wanted to play for a west coast team.

The trade market is a more probable avenue for upgrading this team. But even there the constraints on 2015 payroll are a limiting factor. The other thing to keep in mind is that this team doesn't really have any major holes. Sure the struggles of Uggla and BJ in 2013 raise questions about second and center. But even if those guys do not rebound, we have some potential in-house solutions. Pena, La Stella, Pastornicky at second. Schafer in center, or moving Heyward to center and opening up more playing time for Terdoslavich. We have decent rotation depth with Minor, Medlen, Beachy, Teheran, Wood and Hale. Another lefty for the pen would be nice, but it is not an urgent need.

There is no glaring hole at the moment. But we can count on some holes to reveal themselves over the course of the season. Injuries will happen. Some players will underperform. Whatever holes Wren has to fill in 2014, he will have to seek out solutions that don't exacerbate the looming crunch coming up in 2015. It will be a real test. The most likely solutions will come from mid-level players on track to hit free agency after the 2014 season. The list of players who will be hitting free agency after 2014 can be found here:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/0...ee-agents.html