Originally Posted by
GovClintonTyree
OK, I'll play.
So Heyward has had 54 balls hit in his zone (subjective, but sounds legit).
In 23 games (fact).
I'd say the huge majority of those are routine, meaning any professional fielder would get to them. (Subjective, but I think we can all agree there are routine plays.)
Another portion are hit such that no fielder could get to them. (Same, but that's subjective, too.)
There are four (in your example) that Heyward gets to that others wouldn't. (That sounds possible to me, maybe a little high, but I'll go along.)
They were going to be triples, but they're outs. (Going with it. Sounds ok.)
A triple is worth a run. Heyward has saved four runs. (Ok)
Heyward the poster says Heyward the outfielder has saved 15 runs (DRS) this season. (Bing! Mismatch.)
How is it possible that a statistic says the player has saved 15 runs when he's only had 54 chances to make a play? He didn't make 35% more plays than everybody else. He's a hell of an outfielder, but he didn't have that much impact. The statistic overweights what impact he can make standing out in right field.
I will take you up on your Fielding Bible suggestion, BTW. I don't need to understand more than I just outlined to know that the stat is wrong, but I would like to understand a bit more about the process of quantifying defense.