I think if the BoSox win it all this year he will have a ring and possibly give us a small discount to come home if possible.
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You've been beating the Peralta drum pretty hard, and I can't think of a better fit. I'm just not confident that Arizona will decide to tear it all down yet. Having Goldschmidt, Peralta, and Greinke could make them see a chance to contend if they are squinting hard enough.
Just for kicks, what do you think it would take to get Peralta and Greinke?
I honestly think this is the route we'll go. Everyone wants to talk a big signing.
I think we'll sign a couple of versatile guys we can put in different line ups and make one big trade.
Personally I love Dansby and Ender. But I'd be looking to see if we can get Acuna in CF and some stud hitters, at least one LH, on either side of him. Not guys that can't play the field, but guys who can hit. I just don't know who those guys are. I still think one will be a trade and I am not sure Pollock is that guy with his injury history.
In a video game world I'd look hard at Moving Dansby and Ender. Ozzie to SS. That gives me options like Dozier or Comargo for 2B and Machado/Riley for 3B.
But I think it's going to be:
1. Trade for a Markakis replacement
2. Sign as LH hitting catcher
3. Get Escobar and another such guy for mixing and matching
4. Hope the young guys take the next step
5. Spend some money in the pen
I hope I'm wrong.
By biggest fear is a giant Realmuto trade but I think it has a good shot of happening.
Incremental improvement or arguably regresssion might not even secure the division.
If the big move is picking up Ass Dribble, Atlanta will be just as overmatched next year.
I don’t think accumulating 10% chances over time is really all that great a strategy.
That said, this is a pretty bad free agent market for Atlanta and the options for major improvement are not obvious.
Newk for Cabrera is an idea I could get behind, and I'm a big Newk fan.
It is always interesting to look at things from the other team's perspective. The Diamondbacks have some challenges. Pollock and Corbin are both free agents. Those are both very big losses. Goldschmidt is a free agent after next year. And their farm system is weak.
Taijuan Walker presumably will be back next year. Don't know how much they can count on him and Shelby Miller. I think they will be in the market for a starting pitcher. But they aren't exactly swimming in spare outfielders. Even if they make a run at re-signing Pollock. They may not be our best trading partner.
Greinke's contract could have been a disaster for them, but he has aged well. Even so he has negative expected surplus value for the remaining three years of the contract. This means it would be cheaper to trade for him and Peralta than Peralta alone. But in reality that sort of trade would probably involve the Diamondbacks picking up some of Greinke's salary to enhance the return. It is an interesting idea. Greinke (plus 5M per year from the Diamondbacks) plus Peralta would probably cost as much as Peralta alone.
I want a real catcher. Flowers and Zuk are so bad at throwing out runners. Flowers isn't much of a hitter..at all. I hope the FO at least pursues an actual FT catcher, not just settle for those two again.
i think the FO could make a fairly big move, and i think they have to. they have the resources to do so. they should absolutely be trying to add at least one big impact player. going for more fringe players is going to leave the team in the same spot as this year.
Eddie Rosario is the most attractive corner outfield option for us. He would cost something along the lines of Newk and Touki. I also think his teammate Max Kepler is worth looking at. Would cost less.
We match up well with the Twins in the sense they need starting pitching.
Unlike the Braves, the Dodgers have young catchers who could step in to share time with Hedges. They may be smart enough not to give Grandal $80M. If they sign Harper then Puig is suddenly an option.
Kimbrel makes zero sense for the Braves and isn't even worth discussing as a possibility.
I have the Braves just shy of $80M for next year, and still needing a cOF, a catcher, and 2 bench players:
# Pos Player 2019 Salary
1 C Flowers $4.00
2 1B Freeman $21.00
3 2B Albies $0.55
4 3B Camargo $0.55
5 SS Swanson $0.55
6 LF Acuna $0.55
7 CF Inciarte $5.00
8 RF FA/Trade $0.00
9 SP1 Teheran $11.00
10 SP2 Folty $5.00
11 SP3 Gausman $8.00
12 SP4 Newk $0.55
13 SP5 Touki $0.55
14 BN1 Culberson $0.55
15 BN2 Duvall $2.00
16 BN3 Backup IF $0.00
17 BN4 Backup OF $0.00
18 BN5 Backup C $0.00
19 BP1 O'Day $8.00
20 BP2 Viz $6.00
21 BP3 Freeman $2.00
22 BP4 Venters $2.00
23 BP5 Minter $0.55
24 BP6 Winkler $0.55
25 BP7 Fried $0.55
Total $79.50
Freeman and Duvall are NT candidates, but that only gets the payroll down to $75M.
Nobody is taking Teheran, and will serve as the obligatory $10M veteran presence at the back of the rotation.
Assuming opening day payroll is around $120M for 2019, that's $40M-$45M to fill all those holes with playoff caliber talent.
The Braves are not signing Kimbrel, Machado or Harper. We will be lucky if they shop in the Grandal/Pollock aisle.
I actually wouldn't be so sure on Grandal staying with his club. LA might want to stay under the soft tax. I'm not sure what the number will be to get him though.
I disagree nobody is taking JT. He's not paid that much and has an option. AA is creative. Maybe we move our under performer for another team's position player under performer. I think if we really wanted the salary gone we could attach something we wouldn't miss.
I think we should leave 5 million unspent for the basically free deadline upgrades we saw this year.
I still think our biggest issue is that we have like 10 third starters and I don't think we'll sign a difference maker.
OK....so trading Teheran for someone making similar money still leaves the payroll in about the same place. They still have $40M-$45M to spend with a hole in the rotation vs a hole on the bench.
There is no reason to trade Julio. He is perfectly capable of filling out the back of the rotation, and eliminates the need to sign some veteran filler for the rotation the Braves always seem to be shopping for.
If the Braves make a trade it will most likely be consolidating young pitching talent into a single MLB asset. That asset could be a cOF, C, or SP (hopefully not).
i agree we'd be lucky if the FO is shopping in the Pollock/Grandal aisle. I just think they kinda have to, or at least land another impact player somewhere, somehow. I'm not sure expected improvement from young guys is enough to carry the division again.
I think that an offseason like that could happen, but I think we end up spending a bit more than you outlined. At maximum, this offseason would put our payroll at 90 million dollars once factoring in arbitration and all that. Probably less. I think its going to be more in the 110 million dollar range, with 10-15 million held back for mid-season moves. Isn't that about what our capacity for payroll is estimated to be? About 120?
So with that in mind, I think we will let Suzuki walk and search for a catcher on the trade/FA market.
-I think the most likely addition there is Grandal at something around 4 years 75 million structured at 18, 18, 19, 20. That is a bit long for my taste, but its not too bad and it adds another switch hitting catcher with a good bat and solid D to the lineup.
-Then I think we explore the market for outfielders through trade. I think we look for a lefty here. I'd love to add a guy like Eddie Rosario if the Twins were willing and I would definitely give up Newcomb plus a little bit more for him. Peralta is an interesting candidate, but he only has two years of control left and will be 31 so I'd have to think about it. Also some other names to consider are guys like Conforto, Gallo, Kepler, or Mazara. There are also some free agents out there, but I think the ideal name would be Rosario if the Twins were amenable to a deal.
-We need to extend our bench depth and I think we need to find a switch hitting versatile player to add that component to our team. The three names that we all keep mentioning are Escobar, Cabrera, and less commonly Marwin Gonzalez. I'm sure that financials would dictate a lot of this, but I think we will easily be able to get one of these names. Escobar would be my preference, but we may be priced out on him or he may not be willing to serve that super utility role that we need. If it was between Cabrera and Gonzalez, I think I would prefer to grab Marwin. He had a nice bounceback after a slow start to the season and I just believe in his ability to fill that role a little more than Cabrera. I also like Gonzalez' versatility a bit more than Cabrera's. I honestly think we could be able to sign him for something like a 3 year deal at 25-30 million.
-At this point I think our payroll would be around 95-100 million. I think we should target a bullpen arm through free agency to get to that 110 million mark I spoke of. I think opinions are split on if we should target a lefty or a righty, but I lean towards a righty. With that in mind, there are several names that we could target and possibly fit in our payroll: Cody Allen, Familia, Herrera, Ottavino, and Adam Warren among some others. If we could get Familia for less than 15 million per year, then that is the deal that I would do.
So in my eyes, the *perfect* offseason for us would be:
-Grandal at 4/75
-Trade for Rosario
-Escobar at 4/55
-Familia at 3/40
It would be a tight squeeze to fit all that into the payroll and it might not be possible. But I think that group would make us the clear favorites in the NL East heading into 2019.
The more reasonable offseason would looke like this:
-Sign Grandal at 4/75
-Trade for Kepler
-Sign Marwin at 3/28
-Sign a journeyman pitcher or two cheaply
This offseason would make us better, but would be slightly underwhelming for some folks I think.
I'm conflicted on Grandal. On one hand I know that signing an aging catcher like him to big money is probably a big mistake long term, but on the other hand it sure would be nice to plug him into the lineup for a couple of years. Its a tough call. Maybe we are better off keeping what we have at catcher for another year or trying to swing a trade for a Perez or a Realmuto. I'm really not sure at this point.
What are we honestly expecting payroll to be next year? Something in the 115-120 million range correct? Or maybe 105-110 to keep some in the coffers for offseason additions? Right now we are at 58 before arbitration considerations.
I'm thinking OD around 120M with 15M held back for midseason deals...which prorates to being able to take on about 30m in annualized contracts at the deadline.
This year we took on the following contracts at mid-season: O'Day (8M), Gausman (5.6), Brach (5.165), Venters (1M), and Duvall (.645). Total a little over 20M. I think we want a bit more allocated for mid-season moves next year.
I'd like to see them bring Sanchez back on a one-year deal, trade Newcomb+ for Travis Shaw, make a run at Grandal and sign a couple decent relievers.
Grandal just finished his age 29 season. He averaged 3 fWAR in his past three seasons.
McCann hit free agency at the same age and with similar production. He got a 5 year deal at 17M/year. Add some inflation and Grandal is going to be close to 20M/year.
McCann has aged at a fairly typical rate for a catcher and is in the last year of that deal. During those five years he put up a little less that 2 WAR per season. That's what I would project for Grandal over the next five year. Whoever signs him will be paying 9-10M per win. Which is about the market rate these days.
A Flowers/Suzuki combo at half the price and no risk from long-term obligations looks a lot better to me.
Save the money and make your big splash at mid-season. This year we were very lucky with injuries. I bet next year a key player goes down for the season. It sure would be nice to have the flexibility to deal with that.
That's the reason I was pushing for a Flowers/Suzuki/McCann combo earlier. All three good with young pitching. Good chance one of the three will be down at any point in time. All "decent" bench bats with McCann capable of playing 1B in a pinch.
If you go with an all-purpose Culberson on the bench and add another decent utility guy (which you would want anyway) it could work and all on short deals with little financial commitment.
Grandal s going to be in the range of 4/80 or 5/90, possibly more.
It would be incredibly risky to commit that kind of money to an aging catcher, but the Braves are limited in places to add impact players.
The Dodgers just showed the benefit of being able to throw quality player after quality player into the lineup as situations demand.
I expect to see AA fill out the bench with higher quality players next year, so a significant portion of the payroll could be used to accomplish that goal. Acquisitions like Duvall and Culberson are just the start of that trend.
Question...
Do you think teams are still willing to give catchers 5 years at 29 years old? I know McCann and Martin got 5 years, but that hasn't worked out well at all and McCann got it but is tailing off pretty hard.
I agree that Teheran will be difficult to move.
I disagree that moving him creates any sort of actual hole on the roster.
to the extent that it does, the Braves can probably go find a veteran who can put up a lucky .7 WAR for less than 12 million dollars.
No sense creating a list of all the young pitchers who could fill a 6th starter role for the minimum for the Braves again, but there are a lot of those guys.
I think Grandal will show the answer is yes. And for some teams (like the Dodgers and Yankees) it is not bad business to do this. For the Braves it is a bit too risky given the team's budget. But also if you look at it from the contending window perspective, the window has opened for the Braves, but it will probably be at its widest in 3 or 4 years, at which point the bang for the buck ratio from that kind of deal for Grandal becomes less favorable.
Btw Lucroy is another catcher who was very good and went south pretty fast. If he had hit the market after 2016 (his age 30 season) he would have gotten a McCann like contract.
Mac produced over 9 wins and pretty much followed the predicted aging curve exactly as predicted. That contract played out almost exactly as planned.
Martin has produced 8 wins and has also aged almost exactly as expected. Another contract that produced the expected value.
Both contracts worked out exactly as projected. They are not examples against signing Grandal. They are examples to look to when projecting Grandals future value.