FG FA Contract Projections

FG just posted their estimates for FA contracts:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018...0-free-agents/

Some notes on guys Braves fans might be interested in:

Moustakas: 5/$85M - 5/$95M
Would AA give up pick #80-85 to upgrade 3B? Maaaaybe, but I hope he doesn't.

Frazier: 3/$42M
If the Braves are going to pay retail for an upgrade at 3B, this is my preferred target. His RHed power compliments Freeman better than Mous. I would try to get him to agree to a 2 year deal with a higher AAV though...something like 2/35 with an option.

Morrow: 2/$18M - 2/$22M
While this is less than the 3/$24M predicted by MLBTR, this is still most likely too rich for the Braves to spend on a BP arm.

Reed: 3/$27M - 3/$30M
I've seen folks here mention him, but this is way out of the Braves' price range. Good thing, in my opinion.

Nunez: 2/$20M - 3/$33M
nsacpi's man-crush is going to get paid for his versatility. This is too much for the Braves to pay for a guy they already have on the roster for $550k...Camargo.

Joe Smith: 2/$12M - 3/$21M
This is the guy I called Plan C for the Braves BP. No thanks at this price.

Neshek: 2/$14M - 2/$16M
He was my Plan A, but this is more than I was hoping to pay. The Braves might have to bite the bullet if they want a legit BP arm.

Hunter: 2/$10M - 2/$12M
He was my Plan B for the BP, and at this price compared to Neshek, he might be my Plan A now considering each pitchers' age.

Chacin: 2/$16M - 2/$20M
I pegged him as my best SP value of this off season. I underestimated his contract when I said that, but I still think he is a good value.

Damn, projecting Wade Davis to get 17M a year.
Always loved Carlos Santana. Wish we had a need for him.

Also, sign me up for Frazier at that price. Or the idea of higher AAV for 2 years.

Frazier makes sense to me as well. He would be the RH bat behind Freeman Kemp was supposed to be, the clubhouse leader Nick was, and the insurance at 1B if Freddie goes down Matt Adams played.

I still think Neil walker is my preferred target if he were open to moving to 3B.

Bryan Shaw is still my preferred releiver. I like Mcghee and Watson as well if we're looking at 2 arms to solidify the back-end.

I like Frazier for 3B as you should be able to get him on a 2/3 year deal which shouldn't block Riley and would/should be easy to move if Riley shows he's ready sooner. A possible lineup that looks like this wouldn't be the worst thing... (Assuming both Markakis and Kemp aren't traded and Acuna starts year in AAA)

1. Ender Inciarte- CF
2. Ozzie Albies- 2B
3. Freddie Freeman- 1B
4. Matt Kemp- LF
5. Todd Frazier- 3B
6. Nick Markakis- RF
7. Tyler Flowers- C
8. Dansby Swanson- SS
9. Julio Teheran- P

Todd Frazier that’s he had .213 batting avg. Very good formula to make the playoffs. Plus we still have Camargo,Ruiz and Garcia.

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Originally Posted by ixiXSolidXixi

Todd Frazier that’s he had .213 batting avg. Very good formula to make the playoffs. Plus we still have Camargo,Ruiz and Garcia.

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105 OPS+ is above average with a nice OBP and above average power, with above average defense

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Originally Posted by ixiXSolidXixi

Todd Frazier that’s he had .213 batting avg. Very good formula to make the playoffs. Plus we still have Camargo,Ruiz and Garcia.

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Can someone translate this for me?

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

Can someone translate this for me?

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Gonna go with “Todd Frazier, that’s the guy who hit .213. Such a good way to make the playoffs (/sarcasm). Plus we have 3 probable around replacement level players.”

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Originally Posted by Managuarantano's Volunteers

Gonna go with “Todd Frazier, that’s the guy who hit .213. Such a good way to make the playoffs (/sarcasm). Plus we have 3 probable around replacement level players.”

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Thanks. As hard as it is to imagine, it sounds more stupid in English than it did in whatever language it was originally haha.

I also would rather go after Frazier than Moustakas. Sign him to a three year deal and allow Riley a couple years to develop further. Then if/when Riley shows he’s ready, Frazier gets traded.

I have been wondering what Alex Cobb might cost, but he’s likely going to be too rich. If the Braves have designs on contending soon, a TOR starter will be needed at some point. Right now, it’s clear Teheran is not that guy unless he bounces back. I’m not even 100% sure he is Brave next season anyway.

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Originally Posted by CrimsonCowboy

I also would rather go after Frazier than Moustakas. Sign him to a three year deal and allow Riley a couple years to develop further. Then if/when Riley shows he’s ready, Frazier gets traded.

I have been wondering what Alex Cobb might cost, but he’s likely going to be too rich. If the Braves have designs on contending soon, a TOR starter will be needed at some point. Right now, it’s clear Teheran is not that guy unless he bounces back. I’m not even 100% sure he is Brave next season anyway.

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If you win a bidding war for a player in decline you may have trouble moving him. Hard pass on Frazier.

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Originally Posted by Southcack77

If you win a bidding war for a player in decline you may have trouble moving him. Hard pass on Frazier.

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Frazier is absolutely a win now move, and will be a bench bat by the 3rd year of his deal.

It sounds like AA is resigned to the fact that 2018 will be another lost year with a $100M-$110M payroll, so the hard pass will be the Braves' only option.

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Originally Posted by CrimsonCowboy

I also would rather go after Frazier than Moustakas. Sign him to a three year deal and allow Riley a couple years to develop further. Then if/when Riley shows he’s ready, Frazier gets traded.

I have been wondering what Alex Cobb might cost, but he’s likely going to be too rich. If the Braves have designs on contending soon, a TOR starter will be needed at some point. Right now, it’s clear Teheran is not that guy unless he bounces back. I’m not even 100% sure he is Brave next season anyway.

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Cobb isn't a TOR arm anyways. AA stated point blank they are not accelerating the rebuild (because they can't afford it), so I wouldn't expect the Braves to acquire much of anything more than Moylan or equivalent.

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

Cobb isn't a TOR arm anyways. AA stated point blank they are not accelerating the rebuild (because they can't afford it), so I wouldn't expect the Braves to acquire much of anything more than Moylan or equivalent.

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Haha..I think you take things "politicians" say too seriously. If I was talking to the media I'd be vanilla as can be as well. They tend to make something out of nothing, so no reason to give them ammunition.

We have no idea of what he's going to do, how much money we have, what money we're going to trade etc..

I can't even guess right now wityh so little information, but nothing would surprise me

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Originally Posted by Chico

Haha..I think you take things "politicians" say too seriously. If I was talking to the media I'd be vanilla as can be as well. They tend to make something out of nothing, so no reason to give them ammunition.

We have no idea of what he's going to do, how much money we have, what money we're going to trade etc..

I can't even guess right now wityh so little information, but nothing would surprise me

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Why do folks around here insist on claiming things the FO says aren't true when the comments don't jive with what they want to see happen, or what actually happened?

AA says "we are not going to accelerate the rebuild", and folks think the Braves might still make significant additions.

The old FO says, "we are going to be much better next year", and when the team predictably sucks folks say, "yeah, they didn't REALLY mean that".

When was the last time the Braves FO said one thing and then did the opposite?

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

Why do folks around here insist on claiming things the FO says aren't true when the comments don't jive with what they want to see happen, or what actually happened?

AA says "we are not going to accelerate the rebuild", and folks think the Braves might still make significant additions.

The old FO says, "we are going to be much better next year", and when the team predictably sucks folks say, "yeah, they didn't REALLY mean that".

When was the last time the Braves FO said one thing and then did the opposite?

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I'm not sure what "folks" you're talking about. That must be part of your overgeneralization problem.

How do you get "we are not going to accelerate the rebuild" to be the Braves are only going to acquire Moylan or equivalent. That's a big stretch unless you're just being overly emotional again.

This past regime rarely ever did what they said. It started with trading Kimbrel.

I don't what you meant by those last 2 lines. You completed contradicted yourself. I guess that was meant for some other "folks" who can understand that.

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Originally Posted by Chico

I'm not sure what "folks" you're talking about. That must be part of your overgeneralization problem.

How do you get "we are not going to accelerate the rebuild" to be the Braves are only going to acquire Moylan or equivalent. That's a big stretch unless you're just being overly emotional again.

This past regime rarely ever did what they said. It started with trading Kimbrel.

I don't what you meant by those last 2 lines. You completed contradicted yourself. I guess that was meant for some other "folks" who can understand that.

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The old FO says, "we are going to be much better next year", and when the team predictably sucks folks say, "yeah, they didn't REALLY mean that".

The FO said one thing (we are are building a contender), but really weren't (they didn't REALLY mean that). Didn't seem overly complicated a statement to me, honestly.

You guys do this routinely. The FO is telling the truth only when what they are saying is what you want to hear.

You don't want to hear that they won't make any significant additions, so you don't think they are telling the truth. You don't want to hear that the Braves have no money for payroll, so they are lying when they say they won't be accelerating the rebuild. You don't want to admit the FO is incompetent, so they weren't telling the truth when they stated they were trying to build a contender. You don't want to hear that AA values pitching over position players, so you claim he doesn't really mean it.

It's standard posting procedure on these boards.

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

The old FO says, "we are going to be much better next year", and when the team predictably sucks folks say, "yeah, they didn't REALLY mean that".

The FO said one thing (we are are building a contender), but really weren't (they didn't REALLY mean that). Didn't seem overly complicated a statement to me, honestly.

You guys do this routinely. The FO is telling the truth only when what they are saying is what you want to hear. You don't want to hear that they won't make any significant additions, so you don't think they are telling the truth. You don't want to admit the FO is incompetent, so they weren't telling the truth when they stated they were trying to build a contender. You don't want to hear that AA values pitching over position players, so you claim he doesn't really mean it.

It's standard posting procedure on these boards.

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Your first problem was believeing them when they were bs'ing trying to sell tickets. That sounds like it's your problem and not these "folks" you speak of.

Reading things on the internet is like overhearing a conversation you hear 10%, fill in the other 90% and convince yourself that's exactly what they said. I've seen you do that a lot. I know it's cause you get so emotional, but calm down and read it without filling in your opinion based agenda and it'll read entierly different.

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Originally Posted by Chico

Your first problem was believeing them when they were bs'ing trying to sell tickets. That sounds like it's your problem and not these "folks" you speak of.

Reading things on the internet is like overhearing a conversation you hear 10%, fill in the other 90% and convince yourself that's exactly what they said. I've seen you do that a lot. I know it's cause you get so emotional, but calm down and read it without filling in your opinion based agenda and it'll read entierly different.

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LOL, I never bought their bull****. I suppose I need to spend 20 minutes quoting 50 comments where folks posted exactly the kind of thing I described?

It's hilarious reading you guys jump up and down about how good the team will be, and then when they suck say, "the FO wasn't REALLY trying to win".

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

Why do folks around here insist on claiming things the FO says aren't true when the comments don't jive with what they want to see happen, or what actually happened?

AA says "we are not going to accelerate the rebuild", and folks think the Braves might still make significant additions.

The old FO says, "we are going to be much better next year", and when the team predictably sucks folks say, "yeah, they didn't REALLY mean that".

When was the last time the Braves FO said one thing and then did the opposite?

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Not accelerating =/= sitting on your hands. For all we know, that means that they don't plan trading prospect capital for rental players. Or it could just be GM talk to keep the upper hand in potential trades/FA negotiations.

As far as when the Braves FO said one thing and did the other, have you not been paying attention to anything since Wren was fired? Basically any big name player we've traded recently? Timeline for contention?

He could absolutely mean they aren't going to spend any money, but that isn't what he said. You are reading into his comments to suit your own beliefs.

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

LOL, I never bought their bull****. I suppose I need to spend 20 minutes quoting 50 comments where folks posted exactly the kind of thing I described?

It's hilarious reading you guys jump up and down about how good the team will be, and then when they suck say, "the FO wasn't REALLY trying to win".

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Once again, I'm not sure where I said that. It must be the "folks" you're talking about.

I stated over and over again that 2017 was a mirage and we were signing guys to flip in July cause Coppy was prospect hungry after flipping guys like Bud Norris, Lucas Harell, Cervenka etc.

I've also just said I have no idea what we're going to do. We could stay put and let the kids play and let AA see what we have for a year or he could have plans to change things up. You then insenuated that I was wanting major acquisitions to happen, or maybe that was other "folks". I'm just not sure what's in your head is always the reality of the situation.

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Originally Posted by Carp

Not accelerating =/= sitting on your hands. For all we know, that means that they don't plan trading prospect capital for rental players. Or it could just be GM talk to keep the upper hand in potential trades/FA negotiations.

As far as when the Braves FO said one thing and did the other, have you not been paying attention to anything since Wren was fired?

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Yes, it's GM speak or politician speak. Reading his quotes I definitely caught some BS, but it's exactly what I expected. It's his first day on the job.

BTW...I don't believe the part where he said he didn't think of the Braves for the 2 weeks he waited and only focused on the Dodgers. He surely had a file going on his laptop and some hypothetical situations running in his head, but he's not going to discuss that now. He wants people to come to him and try and convince him.

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Originally Posted by Carp

Not accelerating =/= sitting on your hands. For all we know, that means that they don't plan trading prospect capital for rental players. Or it could just be GM talk to keep the upper hand in potential trades/FA negotiations.

As far as when the Braves FO said one thing and did the other, have you not been paying attention to anything since Wren was fired? Basically any big name player we've traded recently? Timeline for contention?

He could absolutely mean they aren't going to spend any money, but that isn't what he said. You are reading into his comments to suit your own beliefs.

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OK, guess we will find out soon enough.

I can't wait to see the excuses you guys come up with.

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

OK, guess we will find out soon enough.

I can't wait to see the excuses you guys come up with.

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Haha...Now you're going to say "Folks promised me we were going to make major trades and sign some significant Free agents" in a couple of months. Not one person has said that though.

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Originally Posted by Chico

Haha...Now you're going to say "Folks promised me we were going to make major trades and sign some significant Free agents" in a couple of months. Not one person has said that though.

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Really? Not one person on this board has said payroll is going to be $125M+ and the Braves are going to add Mous and 1-2 legit BP arms?

Not a single person has argued against my theory that payroll is decreasing and the Braves are unlikely to make any significant additions?

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

OK, guess we will find out soon enough.

I can't wait to see the excuses you guys come up with.

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There will be no excuses. I have fully admitted it's quite possible they don't spend much at all or make substantial trades. I don't expect it. But I don't take everything the FO does as some sort of secret clue that as evidence for my argument.

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

Really? Not one person on this board has said payroll is going to be $125M+ and the Braves are going to add Mous and 1-2 legit BP arms?

Not a single person has argued against my theory that payroll is decreasing and the Braves are unlikely to make any significant additions?

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I was referring to the current situaiton at hand which is reacting to AA's recent remarks. Once again there's that overgeneralization. Read up on what overgeneralizing says about a person.

When it comes to payroll most I've read are people saying payroll is going to be about the same and it had nothing to do with some conjured up theory about missed revenue projections.

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Originally Posted by Chico

I was referring to the current situaiton at hand which is reacting to AA's recent remarks. Once again there's that overgeneralization. Read up on what overgeneralizing says about a person.

When it comes to payroll most I've read are people saying payroll is going to be about the same and it had nothing to do with some conjured up theory about missed revenue projections.

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Yes, I'm sure the Braves moved into a new stadium under the assumption they would draw 2.5 million fans. I'm sure they decided to move from drawing 2.5 million at Turner to drawing the same amount in a brand new expensive stadium. That was definitely how they projected attendance when the decision was made.

As I said, we will see, and I look forward to your next excuse.

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

Yes, I'm sure the Braves moved into a new stadium under the assumption they would draw 2.5 million fans.

As I said, we will see, and I look forward to your next excuse.

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What was my first excuse?

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Originally Posted by Chico

What was my first excuse?

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You already started with the "politician talk" excuse.

I'll make some predictions of the excuses thrown around when the Braves payroll is $110M and they haven't improved the roster in any significant way:

- They are saving money for next offseason.
- They didn't know how large the fines would be, so they had to set money aside.
- They didn't really like any available FAs.
- They are saving money to extend young players.

Then tehteh will chime in about why a decreased payroll is actually a good thing haha.

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

You already started with the "politician talk" excuse.

I'll make some predictions of the excuses thrown around when the Braves payroll is $110M and they haven't improved the roster in any significant way:

- They are saving money for next offseason.
- They didn't know how large the fines would be, so they had to set money aside.
- They didn't really like any available FAs.
- They are saving money to extend young players.

Then tehteh will chime in about why a decreased payroll is actually a good thing haha.

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So you don't think "politician talk" i s a real thing?

It's all starting to make sense now.

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Originally Posted by Chico

So you don't think "politician talk" i s a real thing?

It's all starting to make sense now.

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Of course it is. It’s not a excuse I️ use whenever I️ decide I️ don’t want to believe something the Braves FO says though. I️ prefer to rely on my own logical deduction skills

FG agreed with making Hunter a team’s Plan A if they are interested in the best value.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2018-free-agent-bargains/