7/28/2015 MINORS TUESDAYFINAL ... Riley homers again

MOVES
1B, Jordan Lennerton, a LH hitter from Canada, has signed with Gwinnett following his release by the Tigers. He hit 21 homers in AA in 2012, 17 homers in AAA in 2013, 10 last year and only four so far this year.
RHP Clayton Cook assigned to Carolina after release by Indians (3-2 in 18 g)
Mike Siroka promoted to Danville from GCL.
***Kolby Allard assigned to GCL Braves
Dilmer Mejia placed on DL of GCL


TUESDAY SCHEDULE

ALL TIMES EDT

CLASS AAA

Gwinnett 9, Durham 3

SP: G. Smith 4 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K.
WP: Peterson (1-0) 2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K.
Moylan 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K.
M. Smith 2-5, R, 2 SB; Cunningham 4-4, 2 RBI; Bethancourt 3-5, 2 2B, 3 R; Terdoslavich 1-5, 2B, 2 RBI; Peraza 1-5, 2B, 2 R.

CLASS AA

Mississippi 12, Birmingham 3

18 total hits.
WP: Ross (4-9) 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB,
Kang 3-5, 2 R, 2B, HR (4th), 2 RBI; Hyams 2-4, 2 R, 3B, 2 RBI; Mateo (AA debut) 2-5, 2B, 3 RBI; Godfrey 2-6, 3B, 2 R, 2 RBI; Ruiz 2-4, 2 R, BB; Rohm 2-5, 2B, R, 2 RBI.

ADVANCED CLASS A

Carolina 7, Frederick 4

SP: Thurman 4 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K.
WP: Salazar (1-1) 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 3 K.
Tate (Save, 3) 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K.
Schrader 1-3, HR (11th), 2 RBI: Camargo 2-4, 2B, 2 R; D. Peterson 2-5, 2B, R, 2 RBI.

CLASS A

Asheville 3, Rome 2

LP: Gil (1-4) 6.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 K.
Edgerton 2-4, 2B, R, RBI; De La Rosa 2-4, RBI; Gaylor 2-3, 2 CS.

SHORT-SEASON

GCL Tigers 9, GCL Braves 1 (7)

LP: Avalos (1-2) 4 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K.
Cockrell (debut) 0.1 IP, 2 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 0 K.
Riley 1-3, HR (6th), RBI; Yelich 2-2, BB.

Burlington @ Danville (16-17), ppd.

DSL Mets 2, DSL Braves 1

LP: Henry (0-3) 3 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 1 K.
F. Sanchez 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 0 K.
Ventura 2-4 (.340); J. Fernandez 20-3.

Allard, Soroka, Yepez, Acuna, Wilson, Rangel, Mejia and Guardado were all 17 as of June 30. Being successful against players older than you is a big deal, one of the best predictors for future success.

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Originally Posted by nsacpi

Allard, Soroka, Yepez, Acuna, Wilson, Rangel, Mejia and Guardado all turn 18 after June 30.

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Crazy. And boy, Riley is doing some serious work. If he can cut his K rate down to something more like 25% next year, he's going to fly up prospect boards.

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Originally Posted by smootness

Crazy. And boy, Riley is doing some serious work. If he can cut his K rate down to something more like 25% next year, he's going to fly up prospect boards.

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I think several of the guys in the GCL will fly up the prospect boards. There is resistance though to including them when they are playing at this level. Albies for example didn't make BA's list at the start of this season. He should have but didn't. And he played most of last season in Danville.

GCL team finally lost today, but Riley with another big fly.

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Originally Posted by 50PoundHead

GCL team finally lost today, but Riley with another big fly.

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I like the way this GCL team out-performs its Pythagorean.

I hope Riley becomes a great player so 10 years from now I can still rail on the idiots who were complaining about the Braves not drafting according to "experts" value rankings.

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Originally Posted by cajunrevenge

I hope Riley becomes a great player so 10 years from now I can still rail on the idiots who were complaining about the Braves not drafting according to "experts" value rankings.

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You should shoot for a more knowledgeable group to rail against. We have a nice group of posters here who have been following the draft for years. And every year when the draft occurs, we have another group that drops in and shares their opinions. Not all of them are ignorant, but some are.

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Originally Posted by cajunrevenge

I hope Riley becomes a great player so 10 years from now I can still rail on the idiots who were complaining about the Braves not drafting according to "experts" value rankings.

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Exactly I can't stand when folk harp on picks because of where "experts" rank them

Is there any chance we'll see Cruz or Pache this season, or is that something we'll probably have to wait for DSL/GCL next year?

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Originally Posted by cajunrevenge

I hope Riley becomes a great player so 10 years from now I can still rail on the idiots who were complaining about the Braves not drafting according to "experts" value rankings.

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I guess you can count me in as one of those who were concerned that the Braves were reaching with their picks. But, let me explain my position.

My position was not that Riley, nor Herbert, nor Soroka were bad picks or were not worthy. My position was that the Braves were consistently picking players higher than their industry projected spots. So, Allard I was fine with but could Soroka have been had as a competitive balance at #41? Most felt he would go after that. Would Riley have been available at #54? Most thought he would. Would Herbert been available one Braves pick later? Quite possibly.

So, my complaint and it was a minor one was that the Braves appeared to have overdrafted these guys by one Braves pick. Now, they may have had good reason for that, mainly money considerations, I don't know. But, would I have felt better about the draft if the Braves had gone for Cam Diaz at 28, Soroka at 41 and Riley at 54? Sure I would assuming the money could be made to work which it very well might not have been (even if that meant not signing 25 players but instead 10, but high quality).

I just believed that the 2015 draft, 2016 draft and the international signings were going to be critical moving forward and needed to be maximized to fullest benefit. It's hard to know if that happened and we probably won't until 2018 or so.

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Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry

I guess you can count me in as one of those who were concerned that the Braves were reaching with their picks. But, let me explain my position.

My position was not that Riley, nor Herbert, nor Soroka were bad picks or were not worthy. My position was that the Braves were consistently picking players higher than their industry projected spots. So, Allard I was fine with but could Soroka have been had as a competitive balance at #41? Most felt he would go after that. Would Riley have been available at #54? Most thought he would. Would Herbert been available one Braves pick later? Quite possibly.

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Yep, I don't think most are critical of the players picked as much as when they are picked and the idea that the Braves are skipping BPA in certain cases to grab them. Particularly when the expected BPA would have fit areas of need. At #28 we skipped over 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes (hitting .385 with a .951 OPS at the same level as Riley) and at 41 skipped C Chris Betts (who is by all accounts much more highly thought of than Herbert). We most likely could have grabbed Riley at 54 anyway.

I hope Riley becomes a surefire stud (seeing that kind of power at rookie league is definitely awesome), but we are talking about a prospect currently hitting .230 and striking out in over 1/3 of his ABs in rookie league. But I'm far less likely to be critical of Braves picking hitters in the sandwich and 2 rounds, that's where most of our successes have come from over the past 20 years.

Time will tell on all this stuff, but I'm not sure why people are surprised when people are critical of weird Braves drafting moves, our success rate over the last 25 years (particularly with drafting pitchers early) is nothing to write home about. Very few of our top draft picks that were pitchers over the last 25 years have even managed to be solid #4 starter types, most of our true success has come from finding good players like Millwood and Hanson in the later rounds.

Did the Braves have money leftover after Allard signed? Are these players that everyone is suggesting we have taken fit into the budget? To me it was clear, after drafting Allard the Braves were going to take the highest on their board that allowed them to ensure that ALlard was going to sign.

Mallex with 2 hits and 2 stolen bases. Baby steps. I still think he has a shot to be in the outfield come opening day next year.

Peraza with another double. Would change everything if he could all of sudden become a 50+ XBH hitter.

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Originally Posted by thethe

Did the Braves have money leftover after Allard signed? Are these players that everyone is suggesting we have taken fit into the budget? To me it was clear, after drafting Allard the Braves were going to take the highest on their board that allowed them to ensure that ALlard was going to sign.

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Considering Allard signed last, I can't see how you say that. I think Allard and his agent were holding out for what he would have gotten had he never been hurt and taken near the top of the draft. I think the Braves went after all the guys they felt like they had to have, keeping a certain number back and then went back to Allard and said "this is what is left. It's x amount above slot and it's yours if you will sign. There is no more." And he ultimately signed.

In no way do I think they played hard ball with him. I think they just put aside a reasonable amount, went about their business and came back and said here it is take it. It's a good deal. And he did.

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Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry

Considering Allard signed last, I can't see how you say that. I think Allard and his agent were holding out for what he would have gotten had he never been hurt and taken near the top of the draft. I think the Braves went after all the guys they felt like they had to have, keeping a certain number back and then went back to Allard and said "this is what is left. It's x amount above slot and it's yours if you will sign. There is no more." And he ultimately signed.

In no way do I think they played hard ball with him. I think they just put aside a reasonable amount, went about their business and came back and said here it is take it. It's a good deal. And he did.

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So would the amount leftover assuming they took the more highly touted players been enough to pry Allard away from his UCLA committment?

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Originally Posted by thethe

So would the amount leftover assuming they took the more highly touted players been enough to pry Allard away from his UCLA committment?

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It was. It did.

You have to look at the order of the signings. I think the Braves had a good idea that he WANTED to sign. They also knew It would have to be over slot, which it ultimately was.

It came down to the point where they offered a good contract, well above slot to a player that they obviously knew wanted to sign. It's not like they offered him second round money and said take it or leave it.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry

I guess you can count me in as one of those who were concerned that the Braves were reaching with their picks. But, let me explain my position.

My position was not that Riley, nor Herbert, nor Soroka were bad picks or were not worthy. My position was that the Braves were consistently picking players higher than their industry projected spots. So, Allard I was fine with but could Soroka have been had as a competitive balance at #41? Most felt he would go after that. Would Riley have been available at #54? Most thought he would. Would Herbert been available one Braves pick later? Quite possibly.

So, my complaint and it was a minor one was that the Braves appeared to have overdrafted these guys by one Braves pick. Now, they may have had good reason for that, mainly money considerations, I don't know. But, would I have felt better about the draft if the Braves had gone for Cam Diaz at 28, Soroka at 41 and Riley at 54? Sure I would assuming the money could be made to work which it very well might not have been (even if that meant not signing 25 players but instead 10, but high quality).

I just believed that the 2015 draft, 2016 draft and the international signings were going to be critical moving forward and needed to be maximized to fullest benefit. It's hard to know if that happened and we probably won't until 2018 or so.

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HH, this is basically my position as well. Well said.

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Originally Posted by thethe

Did the Braves have money leftover after Allard signed? Are these players that everyone is suggesting we have taken fit into the budget? To me it was clear, after drafting Allard the Braves were going to take the highest on their board that allowed them to ensure that ALlard was going to sign.

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The players I was mentioning would have easily fit in the budget. Hayes actually signed for less than Soroka (though I'm sure he would have signed for the same amount if drafted a couple spots earlier by us). Chris Betts signed for 300k over slot, so it wouldn't have been that big of a deal either (losing a late round pick or two is not that big of a deal to get your top tier players signed). It's not like we couldn't have adjusted who we signed or didn't in the later rounds to have the money to keep Allard.

I saw Peraza was playing SS tonight. Wonder if he is being showcased?

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Originally Posted by Oklahomabrave

I saw Peraza was playing SS tonight. Wonder if he is being showcased?

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FA realz?

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Originally Posted by Oklahomabrave

I saw Peraza was playing SS tonight. Wonder if he is being showcased?

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Isn't Castro with the major league team. That could be why.

Bethancourt is giving me reason to believe he could be a useful ML player. Not a star, but a useful player.

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Originally Posted by nsacpi

Bethancourt is giving me reason to believe he could be a useful ML player. Not a star, but a useful player.

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I've always thought so. Useful. Got to play him

Braxton Davidson is a player that I am high on because he has the ability, but I have been disappointed with what he has shown so far. The walks are great, but they are completely offset by the lack of consistent contact and the lack of power he has shown to this point. A guy with his tools shouldn't have a .129 ISO in his first full season. Put the stats aside though. I watched some footage of Braxton hitting, and I think I know what his issue is, or at least what's leading to his swing being long and him losing his power. He's got an exaggerated leg kick when he loads. It's almost like BJ Upton in that he will externally rotate and adduct his front leg on his load. When he transfers that energy though, he is opening up his hips too soon and his front foot lands in an open stance. The hands are lagging behind, and many times, the hands come around the ball instead of staying inside the ball.

What gives me some hope with him is that his hands are very quick and very strong. When he gets his timing down and corrects his lower body flaw, I think we will see a big jump in his power numbers and a decrease in the # of strike outs he has.

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Originally Posted by KB21

What gives me some hope with him is that his hands are very quick and very strong. When he gets his timing down and corrects his lower body flaw, I think we will see a big jump in his power numbers and a decrease in the # of strike outs he has.

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Hopefully he does, Braxton seems like a guy who has huge boom/bust potential depending on how his hit tool develops.

Who's this Kang fella? He seems to always have a decent box line

Ok I see some of you still arent getting it. MLB teams do not work off the ranking lists you and I see. MLB teams put in 1000 times the work that these "experts" do. If other teams worked off the MLb.com rankings then yeah it would be easy to sit back and try and draft some of the players later but its not that simple. I am not telling you that you have to like the picks. I loathed a lot of the high draft picks like Cody Johnson, Mike Minor, Gilmartin and Hursh. We drafted Minor 7th and he was ranked 30th yet the Nationals were a lock to take him at 10 if we didnt. With the new draft pool rules the amount of money you have to spend is far more important when it comes to getting value. Like the Astros with 17 million to spend in the draft because they had 2 top 5 picks. Nearly every team passed on Cameron not because he wasnt BPA but because of how much he wanted to sign. Anyone outside of the Top 5 would be going way over slot to sign him meaning they get more value in Cameron but have to take a lesser player with another pick. Just go look at something like BA's top 500 rankings then look at where they are drafted, outside of the first 20 or so picks many are drafted pretty far from where their ranking was.

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Originally Posted by cajunrevenge

Ok I see some of you still arent getting it. MLB teams do not work off the ranking lists you and I see. MLB teams put in 1000 times the work that these "experts" do. If other teams worked off the MLb.com rankings then yeah it would be easy to sit back and try and draft some of the players later but its not that simple. I am not telling you that you have to like the picks. I loathed a lot of the high draft picks like Cody Johnson, Mike Minor, Gilmartin and Hursh. We drafted Minor 7th and he was ranked 30th yet the Nationals were a lock to take him at 10 if we didnt. With the new draft pool rules the amount of money you have to spend is far more important when it comes to getting value. Like the Astros with 17 million to spend in the draft because they had 2 top 5 picks. Nearly every team passed on Cameron not because he wasnt BPA but because of how much he wanted to sign. Anyone outside of the Top 5 would be going way over slot to sign him meaning they get more value in Cameron but have to take a lesser player with another pick. Just go look at something like BA's top 500 rankings then look at where they are drafted, outside of the first 20 or so picks many are drafted pretty far from where their ranking was.

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The lists out there predraft are an amalgam of private draft evaluations, camp and summer league reviews, industry intelligence from those in scouting positions from various teams around the league. Are they perfect? No. Of course not. But, when you look at multiple lists and compare it gives you a good idea of where players are viewed by the industry. Do teams find "gems" or "diamonds in the rough?" All the time. But, when you make a living at bucking the trends you are essentially saying that your scouts are better than all other team scouts and private talent evaluators combined. When you have one, it's easy to justify -"We saw this guy a lot and loved him and were afraid he wouldn't be there when we next picked so yeah we drafted him a little early but expect it to pay off." But, when that becomes pick after pick, I think it becomes suspect.

But, all in all, I don't overly have a problem with the draft. I just think there are several players that were picked who could have been had at least one Braves pick later than where they were drafted. Was it about the money? Maybe. BUT, IMO, it would be better to spend over slot for a high end early round player and lose the opportunity to sign your #10-#15 picks for example than to take a lesser talent so you can grab bodies later in the hope you will strike gold. Striking gold DOES happen but the odds are not good.

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Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry

The lists out there predraft are an amalgam of private draft evaluations, camp and summer league reviews, industry intelligence from those in scouting positions from various teams around the league. Are they perfect? No. Of course not. But, when you look at multiple lists and compare it gives you a good idea of where players are viewed by the industry. Do teams find "gems" or "diamonds in the rough?" All the time. But, when you make a living at bucking the trends you are essentially saying that your scouts are better than all other team scouts and private talent evaluators combined. When you have one, it's easy to justify -"We saw this guy a lot and loved him and were afraid he wouldn't be there when we next picked so yeah we drafted him a little early but expect it to pay off." But, when that becomes pick after pick, I think it becomes suspect.

But, all in all, I don't overly have a problem with the draft. I just think there are several players that were picked who could have been had at least one Braves pick later than where they were drafted. Was it about the money? Maybe. BUT, IMO, it would be better to spend over slot for a high end early round player and lose the opportunity to sign your #10-#15 picks for example than to take a lesser talent so you can grab bodies later in the hope you will strike gold. Striking gold DOES happen but the odds are not good.

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From what I've heard the draft boards of the various teams diverge quite a bit after the Top 30 picks. So once guys like Riley are being selected in the second round and later there is very little consensus. Teams can't really guess where other teams have players rated after the Top 30. They have to pick based upon their own draft board.

We can always argue about the relative merits of the scouting services and how closely they reflect both reality and the evaluation methods of each team. I think what happens under the new rules is that teams try to draft guys as closely as they can to the slot value assigned to each pick matching what their scouts have discerned to be a draftee's asking price. Riley had made it clear that he wanted $1.6 MM or thereabouts. That was slightly above the slot value for the slot in which he was picked. I don't have all the picks in front of me, but I remember the Braves going above slot for Graham as well and going under slot on Guardado and Moore (which was slated). They also went over slot for Jones, Ellison, and Johnson-Mullins after Round 10. It's a challenge to play mix-and-match and still land the guys you want to land, but by sticking close to slot on most guys, you should be able to move around enough money to get the guys you really want. Again, that doesn't quell the difference of opinion on how certain draftees are viewed, but I think the Braves found the guys they valued and paid them what it would take to get it done. We'll see how it plays out.

Braxton may end up being more KJ than Freddie Freeman. I like the kid a lot and am not running him down, by any means, but I think we should temper expectations while he's figuring it out.

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Originally Posted by Julio3000

Braxton may end up being more KJ than Freddie Freeman. I like the kid a lot and am not running him down, by any means, but I think we should temper expectations while he's figuring it out.

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Agreed. I've seen him more than most on the board. (May be a few others), but I can tell you that there are times he's got it figured out and other times you wonder what the hype is about. And I've got video and pics so before I'm bashed, I'm saying that I love Braxton. I think he's going to be good, but I think he needs to figure out who he is. I know he changed his swing for more contact, but if you have a contact rate that is less than stellar, then you need to drive the ball. I've seen the ability in him to hit about 15 this year, but his approach is almost too cerebral.