Swanson & Camargo Second Half Numbers

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09-13-2017, 08:58 AM
nsacpi

Swanson & Camargo Second Half Numbers

In 150 PA Swanson has turned in a slash line of .278/.387/.381. Walk rate of 15.3, strikeout rate of 18.0, ISO of .103, BABIP of .350.

In 105 PA Camargo has turned in a slash line of .283/.324/.465. Walk rate of 5.7, strikeout rate of 18.8, ISO of .183, BABIP of .333.

The samples are not large, but in many ways I think these numbers are more representative of what we can expect from them going forward than their first half or full season numbers.

The most encouraging thing about both is the decline in the strikeout rate to below 20%. Swanson's strikeout rate in the first half was 23.0% and Camargo's was 21.6. I've felt all along that getting the strikeout rate below 20% was the key for both of them if they were to develop into average or above average major league regulars.

The other numbers confirm that a bigger part of Swanson's value as a hitter will come from his on base skills. The walk rate is exaggerated a bit by hitting 8th, but even when he moves away from the 8th spot I expect it to remain fairly high.

Camargo on the other hand has continued to develop more power. Strikeout rate below 20%, ISO of about .180 and above average defense at third is a formula for a pretty good ballplayer.
09-13-2017, 10:21 PM
bravesfanMatt

It is so cold, dark and creepy in here.. I don't even think that rosey post is enough to make this awful place better...

I am heading back to Pozzi land where thethe acid wallpaper lines every room!!
09-14-2017, 08:00 AM
nsacpi

Quote:

Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt

It is so cold, dark and creepy in here.. I don't even think that rosey post is enough to make this awful place better...

I am heading back to Pozzi land where thethe acid wallpaper lines every room!!

I asked that this forum be named Realists from the outset. But my influence with the grand poobah is limited.
09-14-2017, 11:05 AM
Enscheff

The 3 most lucky Braves in the 2nd half have been Inciarte (-0.062), Camargo (-0.061), and Suzuki (-0.054).

A large portion of Suzuki's luck comes in fly balls. We can also see this manifesting itself with a HR/FB rate that is 2x-3x higher than his career rate. Other guys like Adams and Freeman are enjoying similar luck on fly balls.

The bulk of Inciarte's luck has come on grounders. This is something he has done 3 years in a row, so fine, we can start to roll that into his skill set. I have no idea how or why, but it appears to be something real.

The only Braves player luckier than Inciarte on grounders? That would be Johan Camargo. Are we ready to say he has an innate ability to get hits on grounders? I'm not there yet.

FWIW, xwOBA thinks Swanson and Camargo are nearly equivalent hitters in the 2nd half (0.309 vs 0.312). A lot of those ABs came before Swanson's demotion, after which he is carrying a .337 value (Camargo obviously hasn't hit much since Swanson was promoted).

Taking into consideration all the data (minor league performances, scouting reports, my own eye test, improvements Swanson has made vs sliders), I would say Camargo's true talent is in the .300-.320 range, and Swanson's is in the .320-.340 range...which is right where I would project both players in 2018.
09-17-2017, 04:09 PM
nsacpi

Camargo continues to hit...Swanson seems to have wandered back into slumplandia.
09-17-2017, 04:15 PM
GeorgiaGirl

Inciarte seems to aim the ball when he hits, so some of the analytics need to be taken out of the equation with him.
09-17-2017, 04:26 PM
thewupk

Quote:

Originally Posted by GeorgiaGirl

Inciarte seems to aim the ball when he hits, so some of the analytics need to be taken out of the equation with him.

They don't need to be taken out. Just adjusted for what seems to be an apparent skill set.
09-18-2017, 10:35 AM
thethe

Quote:

Originally Posted by nsacpi

Camargo continues to hit...Swanson seems to have wandered back into slumplandia.

Camargo has excellent bat to ball skills. The hit tool is the most underrated one IMO. If you can't consistently make contact with the ball then you are going to have problems when the pitching gets better.
09-18-2017, 11:15 AM
Enscheff

Quote:

Originally Posted by thethe

Camargo has excellent bat to ball skills. The hit tool is the most underrated one IMO. If you can't consistently make contact with the ball then you are going to have problems when the pitching gets better.

Here are numbers that measure "hit tool" comparing Camargo to all of MLB in 2017:

Stat MLB Camargo
K% 21.6% 20.5%
OContact 63.0 % 68.1 %
ZContact 85.5 % 85.2 %
Contact 77.5 % 78.7 %

Camargo appears to have an ever so slightly above average hit tool. It isn't good enough to support a walk rate of 4.8% though.

I've already shown what will happen when his BABIP drops from .370 into the .300-.320 range...he will not be an everyday player.
09-18-2017, 11:20 AM
thethe

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enscheff

Here are numbers that measure "hit tool" comparing Camargo to all of MLB in 2017:

Stat MLB Camargo
K% 21.6% 20.5%
OContact 63.0 % 68.1 %
ZContact 85.5 % 85.2 %
Contact 77.5 % 78.7 %

Camargo appears to have an ever so slightly above average hit tool. It isn't good enough to support a walk rate of 4.8% though.

I've already shown what will happen when his BABIP drops from .370 into the .300-.320 range...he will not be an everyday player.

If his BABIP drops to that level and he has the same bb/k ratio then sure it won't look good. But you are assuming he will be in the 300-320 range which isn't a certainty and his other peripherals may increase. So there isn't one outcome for Camargos future. The odds are that you are right but it is far from an absolute.
09-18-2017, 11:37 AM
Enscheff

Quote:

Originally Posted by thethe

If his BABIP drops to that level and he has the same bb/k ratio then sure it won't look good. But you are assuming he will be in the 300-320 range which isn't a certainty and his other peripherals may increase. So there isn't one outcome for Camargos future. The odds are that you are right but it is far from an absolute.

Folks also insisted on arguing with me when I said Kemp's early production was due to an unsustainable BABIP, and Matt Adams' was inflated by an unsustainable HR/FB rate. Folks also think Suzuki is an improved hitter because he's popped a few more HR than normal this year.

Just like in those cases, I suppose we will see who's right about 400 PAs from now.
09-18-2017, 11:40 AM
cajunrevenge

Camargo has the grit factor.
09-18-2017, 01:56 PM
nsacpi

his minor league K rates suggest a good chance he can bring down his major league K rate to about 15%...that would offset most of the normalization of his BABIP...i don't expect an .800 plus OPS in his next 400 ABs, but something in the .750-775 range looks realistic

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enscheff

Here are numbers that measure "hit tool" comparing Camargo to all of MLB in 2017:

Stat MLB Camargo
K% 21.6% 20.5%
OContact 63.0 % 68.1 %
ZContact 85.5 % 85.2 %
Contact 77.5 % 78.7 %

Camargo appears to have an ever so slightly above average hit tool. It isn't good enough to support a walk rate of 4.8% though.

I've already shown what will happen when his BABIP drops from .370 into the .300-.320 range...he will not be an everyday player.
09-23-2017, 09:04 AM
nsacpi

Its been only 10 days since I put up the opening posts, but the second half numbers for Camargo and Swanson now look quite different. An update:

Camargo: .293/.326/.439 in 130 PAs. BABIP .347. K rate 19.2. Walk rate 4.6.

Swanson: .247/.346/.338. BABIP .322. K rate 20.7. Walk rate 13.4.

The walk rate is a silver lining for Swanson. Everything else is nicht so gut.

It will be interesting to see what the projection systems do with those two. After a while performance overrides pedigree. I don't think we've quite reached the point where Camargo projects to be the better hitter (in part because Swanson's performance last season carries some weight). But I would project something similar in terms of OPS for those two next year. Both in the .725-.775 range.
09-23-2017, 12:02 PM
thethe

Quote:

Originally Posted by nsacpi

Its been only 10 days since I put up the opening posts, but the second half numbers for Camargo and Swanson now look quite different. An update:

Camargo: .293/.326/.439 in 130 PAs. BABIP .347. K rate 19.2. Walk rate 4.6.

Swanson: .247/.346/.338. BABIP .322. K rate 20.7. Walk rate 13.4.

The walk rate is a silver lining for Swanson. Everything else is nicht so gut.

It will be interesting to see what the projection systems do with those two. After a while performance overrides pedigree. I don't think we've quite reached the point where Camargo projects to be the better hitter (in part because Swanson's performance last season carries some weight). But I would project something similar in terms of OPS for those two next year. Both in the .725-.775 range.

What would you put as a WAR projection for Camargo using the assumption he gets 75% of the time at a minimum next season? I don't think a 2.5 WAR is an unreasonable expectation considering his defensive contributions at third.
09-23-2017, 12:59 PM
nsacpi

Quote:

Originally Posted by thethe

What would you put as a WAR projection for Camargo using the assumption he gets 75% of the time at a minimum next season? I don't think a 2.5 WAR is an unreasonable expectation considering his defensive contributions at third.

2.5 is about right