19: Turning things around in Miami

Printable View

Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

06-07-2019, 10:52 PM
thewupk

Quote:

Originally Posted by cajunrevenge

Since the draft just happened let me beat the old dead horse and remind everyone that people complained when we drafted Soroka because he was ranked like 20 slots lower by the "experts".

Our up the middle defense is going to be lit once Langeliers and Pache are in town
06-07-2019, 11:07 PM
weso1

Quote:

Originally Posted by sturg33

Soroka is just awesome.

Reminds me of prime Tim Hudson

More like Hudson was Soroka light.

Still worried about injury with Soroka though.
06-07-2019, 11:12 PM
bravesfanMatt

Should I be as mad as I am at Snit for letting Soroka go out in the 9th to just pull him after one walk and then bring in a low end pen guy to give up that run. Either give that inning to winkler or give Soroka more lead way.
06-07-2019, 11:21 PM
thewupk

I find it funny that even after "struggling" a bit with the bat that Acuna is still on pace for a 5-6 WAR season.
06-07-2019, 11:24 PM
cajunrevenge

Especially considering the epic slumps we have witnessed over the years by our star players not named Freeman.
06-08-2019, 12:22 AM
Enscheff

Quote:

Originally Posted by thethe

(13*HR+3*(HBP+BB)-2*K)/IP

Not letting up homeruns is a huge suppressor of FIP

Quote:

Originally Posted by thethe

Thats what xFIP aims to accomplish.

In place of HR you have the following (Fly Balls * League Average HR/FB%).

Therefore, if you are an extreme GB pitcher (like Soroka) you will still have a low xFIP.

Indeed.

xwOBA takes it to a whole other level by assigning an offensive value to every event based on launch angle and exit velocity. This allows for a metric that strips away luck, ball park, sequencing, and defense from the equation.

With xwOBA, a pitcher is credited positively for a weakly hit grounder, even if his defense doesn't convert it into an out. The pitcher is also dinged for giving up a rocket even if it just so happened to be hit directly at an OFer for an out. It is currently the most predictive/descriptive of all pitching stats, and does the best job of truly identifying which pitcher is best.

What xwOBA doesn't do is tell you things like which pitcher would benefit most from improved defense. For example, two pitchers with xwOBA of .300...one is a high K and high BB guy, the other is a low K low BB guy. Stick the pitcher who gives up contact in front of a good defense, and the resultant ERA will be better than the guy who doesn't allow as much contact. In that case, you clearly want the contact guy if you have a good defense, and the K/BB guy if you don't.
06-08-2019, 06:32 AM
Carp

Quote:

Originally Posted by Freshmaker

Ozzie 3/3 with a walk

John Hart was right.
06-08-2019, 07:06 AM
thethe

Quote:

Originally Posted by nsacpi

that front door change to Anderson was absurd

Here is that 2 pitch sequence overlay. Unhittable.
06-08-2019, 07:27 AM
thethe

Man, look at the tunneling on these two pitches!

You wonder how someone ends up with a sub 3 FIP.
06-08-2019, 07:30 AM
thethe

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enscheff

Indeed.

xwOBA takes it to a whole other level by assigning an offensive value to every event based on launch angle and exit velocity. This allows for a metric that strips away luck, ball park, sequencing, and defense from the equation.

With xwOBA, a pitcher is credited positively for a weakly hit grounder, even if his defense doesn't convert it into an out. The pitcher is also dinged for giving up a rocket even if it just so happened to be hit directly at an OFer for an out. It is currently the most predictive/descriptive of all pitching stats, and does the best job of truly identifying which pitcher is best.

What xwOBA doesn't do is tell you things like which pitcher would benefit most from improved defense. For example, two pitchers with xwOBA of .300...one is a high K and high BB guy, the other is a low K low BB guy. Stick the pitcher who gives up contact in front of a good defense, and the resultant ERA will be better than the guy who doesn't allow as much contact. In that case, you clearly want the contact guy if you have a good defense, and the K/BB guy if you don't.

Is there visibility into their value models? I prefer non-bias stats and then place my own interpretation.
06-08-2019, 08:03 AM
bravesfanMatt

Tunneling is one of the most important aspect of pitching. Making pitches start on the same plane for as long as possible. Fried needs one more pitch he can effectively throw 20% of the time. Change/slider/sinker gets him there.
06-08-2019, 08:51 AM
50PoundHead

Quote:

Originally Posted by AerchAngel

You are an asshole and pick on posters all the time. This is kindergarten stuff you are posting.

People need to grow a little skin in many instances. Enscheff has been on me for a couple of viewpoints, but I stand my ground and still respect his viewpoint even if it is opposed to mine. He's great with the advanced scouting metrics and he can call me a royal d*ckhead for all I care.
06-08-2019, 09:42 AM
AerchAngel

Quote:

Originally Posted by 50PoundHead

People need to grow a little skin in many instances. Enscheff has been on me for a couple of viewpoints, but I stand my ground and still respect his viewpoint even if it is opposed to mine. He's great with the advanced scouting metrics and he can call me a royal d*ckhead for all I care.

He just needs a reminder.

Saying people I am a brown-noser to him when I am obviously not, he is great at what he does. But it is so unnecessary for him for this crap.

But I agree with you.
06-08-2019, 10:18 AM
thethe

Soroka pacing at slightly under 7 WAR.

Geez
06-08-2019, 10:52 AM
Enscheff

Quote:

Originally Posted by thethe

Is there visibility into their value models? I prefer non-bias stats and then place my own interpretation.

Umm, not sure you can look up the values. At least not in some giant table. But maybe it’s there somewhere.

I do know they are created by taking the average outcome on all batted balls with similar launch angles and exit velocities. If a 100 mph hit at 11 degrees happened 200 times over the course of their sample, and resulted in 20 outs, 20 HRs, 60 doubles, and 100 singles, that’s the expected wOBA for all balls hit similarly.

I don’t see any room for bias of any sort in that type of analysis.
06-08-2019, 11:00 AM
thethe

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enscheff

Umm, not sure you can look up the values. At least not in some giant table. But maybe it’s there somewhere.

I do know they are created by taking the average outcome on all batted balls with similar launch angles and exit velocities. If a 100 mph hit at 11 degrees happened 200 times over the course of their sample, and resulted in 20 outs, 20 HRs, 60 doubles, and 100 singles, that’s the expected wOBA for all balls hit similarly.

I don’t see any room for bias of any sort in that type of analysis.

Thats fair actually and very reasonable.

Thanks
06-08-2019, 12:10 PM
Super

thankfully it appears Ronny is back on his bull****
06-08-2019, 12:29 PM
UNCBlue012

Quote:

Originally Posted by thethe

Soroka pacing at slightly under 7 WAR.

Geez

I doubt it happens but he’s legit on a CY Young path. Dude is just money.
06-08-2019, 12:32 PM
zbhargrove

Quote:

Originally Posted by UNCBlue012

I doubt it happens but he’s legit on a CY Young path. Dude is just money.

Could end up being a close ROY race between him and Riley in the end. But I do think Riley’s regression has started a little bit and that’s to be expected. He should still finish with a very good rookie year tho
06-08-2019, 12:45 PM
Freshmaker

Quote:

Originally Posted by zbhargrove

Could end up being a close ROY race between him and Riley in the end. But I do think Riley’s regression has started a little bit and that’s to be expected. He should still finish with a very good rookie year tho

He'll win CY once Ryu gets injured again and Riley will win ROY :eusa_dance:

Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page