Braves trade Mallex and Simmons to M's for Gohara and Burrows

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by thewupk

First I don't believe I said it's not great. But it's certainly not perfect or close to it like offensive evaluation is.

In simple terms of 'bad' then yes given other things are equal a bad hitter will impact a team more than a bad fielder. They simply have more opportunities to be bad than a fielder does. The problem with that line of thinking is there are many varying degrees of 'bad' and all other adjectives we can assign players.

I would rather look at players on how many runs they produce while they are playing. Because runs is a number and math is fun.

---

Runs produced is a theory based on statistical models though. It's not an absolute and must consider that in evaluations.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by thethe

I think a down year/injuries for certain players can impact value relative to league and mask the true value of a player.

---

So can steroids and a magnitude of other things. For example I think had Chipper played his career in the 70's or 80's he would be viewed as the best 3B of all time. Sadly he played in an era with insanely boosted offensive numbers that somewhat drowned out his true talent. But that's neither here nor there.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by thethe

Doesn't dWAR isolate positions?

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Southcack77

I think #2 is perhaps part of the reason why dWar seems out of whack.

---

dWAR is usually the addition of a players runs saved and their positional adjustment. An example is Markakis who was a -6.5 defender in 2016 according to Fangraphs. Now that can be misleading just by looking at it. His UZR was 1.5 which shows he was basically an average defender for his position. But compared to the rest of baseball he was below average. Which should be a given as most right fielders aren't good defenders when compared to all players in the game. So that should be expected.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by thethe

Runs produced is a theory based on statistical models though. It's not an absolute and must consider that in evaluations.

---

It's not absolute, no. But it's WAR based system coorelates highly with the pythag win/loss system which is based on actual runs scored and runs given up. And that system correlates highly with actual wins and losses.

Which should be a given that if you score more runs than you allow that you will win games. But even that is never absolute due to various things that can happen in a season. A fine example is the 2016 Rangers. They scored 8 more runs than they allowed this past season yet they ended up with the best record in baseball. Not much logic in that but it happens.

For the record baseball ref does have oWAR which does combine a players offensive with their position. So that would negatively effect Mallex or anyone else moving from center to a corner spot. But as they say on their site that oWAR + dWAR =/= WAR because that would be counting the position adjustment twice.

I mainly bring that up because Trout has been #1 in oWAR for 5 straight seasons. No other player (not even Bonds, Ruth, or Williams) had 5 seasons in a row of being #1. Trout truly does have a chance to be the GOAT.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TheBravos

So the fact that he hit over 100 RBIs, and 35 HR's in the two worst hitters parks in baseball means nothing.

In a hitter friendly park he would be batting in about 130 RBI and 40 HRs.

Our offense went from literally unwatchable , to one of the better ones in the league. That wasn't all him, BUT he had a BIG part in it.

WAR is only ONE way to evaluate a player's performance. It's not the end all be all.

I wasn't too big on the Kemp trade, but I can't argue the results....I don't see how anyone can. Any GM would take a 40 HR/ 100 + RBI guy...

---

I agree with you. However, this board skews heavily toward valuing new metrics, which basically say Kemp gives back his offensive value on defense.

Like you, I staunchly disagree, and there are a few others. But that's what the deal is.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GovClintonTyree

I agree with you. However, this board skews heavily toward valuing new metrics, which basically say Kemp gives back his offensive value on defense.

Like you, I staunchly disagree, and there are a few others. But that's what the deal is.

---

Which version of Kemp are we talking about here? The one in San Diego where he had a 285 OBP before coming to Atlanta? That guy was not a good hitter at all even with his homers and rbi. Now the one that showed up in Atlanta with the 280 avg and 850 OPS. Yes I will take plenty of that. That version of Kemp is a good hitter and can help this team.

Exactly, he played great (if he can keep it up the next year). Also, he made some shaky plays in the field, but he usually did "make" he plays. It was by no mean pretty, but didn't hurt us as bad as I though he would.

I think because he loves the Braves, this "may" have renewed his career.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Enscheff

I challenge you to go back and find a thread where I was the first person to get nasty. In almost all cases someone, like you, gets upset because I present facts that contradict your opinion (in this case that automated projection systems somehow have something against Teheran and unfairly love Smyly, as if algorithms can show favoritism), and lash out with name calling and personal attacks.

I then proceed to demonstrate how stupid they are by presenting more facts, and throw some name calling in for good measure. Then, without fail, the other person starts whining about how mean I am, and/or starts making points that aren't even counter to the disagreement we were having. In fact, one foold just this morning decided to jump in to argue about LHers in the Braves system being better than ALL pitchers of any system, and didn't even understand the statement I contradicted...and then misunderstood it TWICE!

And then, finally, a few other members of the Goof Troop jump in with some more personal attacks. They all like each others posts attacking me, pat each other on the back, and feel a little better about themselves and how stupid they are.

I'm not complaining. I don't mind taking jabs from folks on the internet. I'm just explaining how 99% of these exchanges go.

Silliest thing is that I have stated several times I think the projections for Julio are low, and I only said Smyly was better than the 3 pitchers acquired this offseason. You took issue with me posting facts about the projected numbers of the Braves rotation compared to Smyly. I apologize that facts offend you.

---

Enscheff, serious question here..

Let me preface this with you seem to be a knowledgeable person who understands analytics and can bring a lot to a public forum. But with that being said, people have a hard time carrying on a conversation with you because of your objectivity and arrogance (whether you mean to come across as that or not) towards other posters. Just my opinion, and it's only that but you come across as one who automatically thinks your right and the other person is wrong before ever giving them a chance to explain. This isn't meant to be an attack or anything to the contrary, as like I said you can at times post some really insightful stuff but just in the wrong tone. So my question...


Why do you post on here?


Would love to hear your answer.

Suspense is building ...

I wanna know.....popcorn is ready...

Has been clear for a long time that either Mallex OR Inciarte were out this offseason. It was never in the card for both to play every day in the ML outfield. They have essentially the same types of tools and value with Inciarte being better (at least right now).

I spent most of the offseason hoping for an Inciarte Trade because I thought his value would bring back more to the Braves, essentially Mallex-Inciarte+prospects gained from trading Inciarte would be more valuable than Inciarte-Mallex+prospects gained from trading Mallex.

IF I thought 2017 was a legitimate challenge year for the Braves, I would feel differently since Inciarte is more valuable as a ML player in 2017 than Mallex is likely to be.

So Mallex was scheduled to be either traded OR to serve as the everyday CF in AAA in hopes to build his value. It looks to me like the Braves FO is counting on Gohara's new found conditioning and break-out performance in the AFL as being the springboard to him being a top 50 type prospect. It's hard to really judge players who catch off-season helium until they carry it to the field. If Gohara is resting in the top 50 prospect list at the trade deadline, the Braves will look like geniuses. If Mallex hits .300/.360 and plays good CF defense next year they likely look like goats.

But Mallex was not likely a long time core piece in any case. He's someone they could afford to gamble with IMO.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TheBravos

Exactly, he played great (if he can keep it up the next year). Also, he made some shaky plays in the field, but he usually did "make" he plays. It was by no mean pretty, but didn't hurt us as bad as I though he would.

I think because he loves the Braves, this "may" have renewed his career.

---

Thsee are things that stats will never measure. The human element always exists and should never be discounted. It's plausible that Kemp was not "all in" for the past couple of years for various reasons. It may be a bunch of nonsense and not play out but Kemp certainly played some of his best ball in a long time when he came over to the braves. It will be interesting to see if this continues.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Enscheff

I state facts that counter many of the opinions of the posters here, and that seems to offend them because they think their uninformed opinions are as valid as the facts I present. Folks do not like being told they are wrong, and many posters here are wrong very often, so it upsets them. When they get upset, they start with the nasty remarks.

Now go through and quote the nasty things folks say to me. I'll wait for your plea to them to "play nice".

---

You told me I had the reading comprehension of a 6th grader after I was trying to have a discussion. But sure, I was the one who first hurled insults...

Your condescending tone has grown thin on this board and everyone can see you for what you really are.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Carp

You told me I had the reading comprehension of a 6th grader after I was trying to have a discussion. But sure, I was the one who first hurled insults...

Your condescending tone has grown thin on this board and everyone can see you for what you really are.

---

Yes an attention seeking baby and you guys keep pulling your tits out to feed him

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by thethe

Thsee are things that stats will never measure. The human element always exists and should never be discounted. It's plausible that Kemp was not "all in" for the past couple of years for various reasons. It may be a bunch of nonsense and not play out but Kemp certainly played some of his best ball in a long time when he came over to the braves. It will be interesting to see if this continues.

---

You are right. There is no stat to measure when a player is actually trying or not.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry

Has been clear for a long time that either Mallex OR Inciarte were out this offseason. It was never in the card for both to play every day in the ML outfield. They have essentially the same types of tools and value with Inciarte being better (at least right now).

I spent most of the offseason hoping for an Inciarte Trade because I thought his value would bring back more to the Braves, essentially Mallex-Inciarte+prospects gained from trading Inciarte would be more valuable than Inciarte-Mallex+prospects gained from trading Mallex.

IF I thought 2017 was a legitimate challenge year for the Braves, I would feel differently since Inciarte is more valuable as a ML player in 2017 than Mallex is likely to be.

So Mallex was scheduled to be either traded OR to serve as the everyday CF in AAA in hopes to build his value. It looks to me like the Braves FO is counting on Gohara's new found conditioning and break-out performance in the AFL as being the springboard to him being a top 50 type prospect. It's hard to really judge players who catch off-season helium until they carry it to the field. If Gohara is resting in the top 50 prospect list at the trade deadline, the Braves will look like geniuses. If Mallex hits .300/.360 and plays good CF defense next year they likely look like goats.

But Mallex was not likely a long time core piece in any case. He's someone they could afford to gamble with IMO.

---

I thought the smart move was to trade Ender as well, but once he became a fan favorite I started thinking it would be Mallex. Once he agreed to a below market extension the answer was clear. The good thing is we structured the contract where we can trade him after 2 more years once Acuna is ready if we want to and still get a decent return.

I probably trade a player like Mallex for a shot at a Gohara seeing what pitching is bringing these days. With two potentially dominant pitches , he could end up in the pen and still have tremendous value.

On another note good Lord at what the Ms gave up to get Smyly all told. (Gohara and Burrows included)

If Mallex hits .300/.360, then the entire scouting community will look like goats.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Enscheff

I challenge you to go back and find a thread where I was the first person to get nasty. In almost all cases someone, like you, gets upset because I present facts that contradict your opinion (in this case that automated projection systems somehow have something against Teheran and unfairly love Smyly, as if algorithms can show favoritism), and lash out with name calling and personal attacks.

I then proceed to demonstrate how stupid they are by presenting more facts, and throw some name calling in for good measure. Then, without fail, the other person starts whining about how mean I am, and/or starts making points that aren't even counter to the disagreement we were having. In fact, one foold just this morning decided to jump in to argue about LHers in the Braves system being better than ALL pitchers of any system, and didn't even understand the statement I contradicted...and then misunderstood it TWICE!

And then, finally, a few other members of the Goof Troop jump in with some more personal attacks. They all like each others posts attacking me, pat each other on the back, and feel a little better about themselves and how stupid they are.

I'm not complaining. I don't mind taking jabs from folks on the internet. I'm just explaining how 99% of these exchanges go.

Silliest thing is that I have stated several times I think the projections for Julio are low, and I only said Smyly was better than the 3 pitchers acquired this offseason. You took issue with me posting facts about the projected numbers of the Braves rotation compared to Smyly. I apologize that facts offend you.

---

Here's your problem, right here. "Projected facts."

Uhhhh....