NL Projections

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06-10-2019, 08:24 AM
nsacpi

NL Projections

Things are starting to shake out in the NL and the contours of the race for playoff spots are becoming clearer.

The part that is most clear is the primacy of the Dodgers, not just in the West, but in the entire league. They have the best record, the best run differential (+109) and are projected by both FG and BP to win the most games the rest of the way in.

In both the East and Central, two teams have achieved a modest amount of separation from their competitors in the division and the other wild card contenders. The Phillies and Braves are one game apart in the East and the same holds for the Cubs and Brewers in the Central. Both BP and FG have those four teams holding on for playoff spots. In the East, both agree the Braves have a small edge. In the Central, BP likes the Brewers and FG likes the Cubs.

Neither system likes the wild card contenders from the West. All three of the Diamondbacks, Padres and Rockies are seen as essentially .500 teams. Of course a .500 team can catch on fire for half a season, but at this point none of those three looks like a team to fear.

FG is bullish on the gnats and has them closing strongly enough to finish only 1 game behind the fillies for the last WC spot (and 3 games behind us for the division). I agree the gnats are a team to worry about. BP is more bullish on the Metropolitans and Cardinals and has those two teams finishing 3 games behind the fillies for the last WC spot.
06-10-2019, 08:35 AM
salmagundy

With the Braves playing 18 of their next 26 games vs NL East teams, the race in the NL East should become a little clearer. The other 8 games are vs the Cubs and Pirates(4 games each) so that could help straighten out the look in the NL Central.
06-10-2019, 08:48 AM
Carp

Yeah the Mets and Nats are definitely playing better lately. Mets hitting is actually looking pretty decent right now. All of their starting lineup, aside from Lagares, is hitting at league average or better levels. Their pitcing has, surpisingly, been the weakness so far. Their BP hasn't been good and Wheeler and Thor haven't had great results despite strong peripherals. DeGrom also is nowhere near his Cy Young form.

The Nats just seem like a .500 team. Good, not great hitting. Good, not great rotation. Terrible BP. Not sure where they rank as a team on defense, but they currently start 2 of the absolute worst defenders in baseball in Adams and Soto.
06-10-2019, 08:51 AM
nsacpi

In terms of "luck", BP has the following teams overperforming their 3rd order win percentage (which corrects for both sequencing luck and strength of schedule):

fillies +7 wins, Giants +4, Pirates +4, Padres +4, Rockies +3, Braves +2

The unlucky teams so far have been:

Reds -5, Cardinals -3, Cubs -3, Dodgers -3, Diamondbakcs -3, gnats -2

Like the first part of last season, the fillies are having some luck.
06-10-2019, 09:38 AM
UNCBlue012

Quote:

Originally Posted by nsacpi

In terms of "luck", BP has the following teams overperforming their 3rd order win percentage (which corrects for both sequencing luck and strength of schedule):

fillies +7 wins, Giants +4, Pirates +4, Padres +4, Rockies +3, Braves +2

The unlucky teams so far have been:

Reds -5, Cardinals -3, Cubs -3, Dodgers -3, Diamondbakcs -3, gnats -2

Like the first part of last season, the fillies are having some luck.

Just like last year, where they came crashing down at the end because regression is legit.
06-10-2019, 09:43 AM
nsacpi

Quote:

Originally Posted by UNCBlue012

Just like last year, where they came crashing down at the end because regression is legit.

that's not how it works...having a run of good luck doesn't increase the chances of a run of bad luck...regression means they should revert to their underlying level the rest of the season
06-10-2019, 10:44 AM
BeanieAntics

Wait, so you're telling me that when I have a terrible run of luck at the craps table that I'm not guaranteed to start hitting on the next roll?

Doesn't add up.
06-10-2019, 10:51 AM
nsacpi

Quote:

Originally Posted by BeanieAntics

Wait, so you're telling me that when I have a terrible run of luck at the craps table that I'm not guaranteed to start hitting on the next roll?

Doesn't add up.

seems unfair doesn't it
06-10-2019, 11:18 AM
Buzzworm

Quote:

Originally Posted by nsacpi

that's not how it works...having a run of good luck doesn't increase the chances of a run of bad luck...regression means they should revert to their underlying level the rest of the season

While I completely agree with your point, there are teams that never regress aka the royals from a few years back and the twins the last time they made the playoffs.
Generally teams come back to earth and regress to the mean but occasionally you’ll have a miracle team ride the random luck to the show.
06-10-2019, 11:23 AM
nsacpi

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buzzworm

While I completely agree with your point, there are teams that never regress aka the royals from a few years back and the twins the last time they made the playoffs.
Generally teams come back to earth and regress to the mean but occasionally you’ll have a miracle team ride the random luck to the show.

True. Luck can last a whole season. Part of the charm of baseball. Sometimes a mediocre team wins it all. But the Royals made 2 world series. They were a pretty good team.