Sickels is my favorite prospect "expert".
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Sickels is my favorite prospect "expert".
Most don't have Povse anywhere near that high.
Whalen is basically a non-prospect.
Are you sure? I was told by several experts on this board that Whalen "just knew how to pitch", by "changing speeds", and "hitting his spots". I was assured he had a good chance to be a solid 3/4 starter because he was so much like Maddux. Folks told me he had a "great sinker" despite me showing the pitchfx data that showed his sinker had below average movement and velocity.
Are you sure these experts were wrong? They went off "what they saw", by "actually watching the games". How could they be wrong when basing their conclusions on the super accurate eye test?
I guess I would measure Whalen on his 360 minor league innings versus his 25ish MLB innings.. but like you say.. keep derping along..
According to this scouting guide: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scout...couting-scale/
A 3/4 starter should be expected to produce 2-3 WAR per season. If he doesn't produce that, I win. We will set the over/under at 2.5 WAR.
Would want to put a stipulation on innings pitched. I am not sure he gets many starts this year and may see significant time in AAA because of it. I would want 60+ innings or bet nullified/pushed to next season.. I could also take a wash out contingent.. say he doesn't pitch 60+ innings in the next 2 years, he is a bust and I lose.
Whalen is not that good. I would set the minimum at 120 innings and make it three years. Even then, I dunno if he would get more than 3 WAR cumulatively.
I would rather bet on Jackson doing poorly if I were aiming to bet on the same point.
No not really. He needs to start to have a shot at my number, but it is a bet and not really that big of a deal. I would hope if he hits 60, then he was effective enough to grab a few spot starts and end the season around 110+ innings. I threw 60 out just as an arbitrary number.
I said I liked Whalen based on him minor league numbers, not his major league numbers. I don't think they will make him a starter this year out of the gate. I think he starts in AAA.. He might be a pen guy depending. I never once said he was a #3 starter. I think he is a capable #5 starter at some point. <-- my point is that I like Whalen and Povse potential (whatever you want to set that at) over what Jackson has. I think it was an over pay for a shot in the dark.. I would love to be wrong.
So I should just take 2.5 for one season and just hope he pitches enough to get that.
And I also, never said that it needs to take 2 years. I said I wanted a pitch fail safe that would either nullify OR push.. man this really didn't need to be this difficult. like dealing with a kid..
If Whalen gets much more than 1 WAR in any season, I'll be pretty dang surprised.
I think Povse's best bet is as a 7th or 8th inning RP, but I'm not sure he gets there.