The great folty vs Newcomb debate

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05-16-2018, 09:48 AM
UNCBlue012

Folty is an extra inning-per-game from being REALLY good. Newcomb is around the same. Both just need to be more economical.
05-16-2018, 10:15 AM
Super

Quote:

Originally Posted by thewupk

Folty 0.9 fWAR and Newk at 1.0 fWAR.

I just don't understand why thethe doesn't like Folty. He's exactly what he liked about Newk last year. Damn near 11 K/9 even with the high walk rate.

Newcomb: 1.2 bWAR
Folty: 0.7 bWAR
05-16-2018, 10:39 AM
thewupk

Quote:

Originally Posted by Super

Newcomb: 1.2 bWAR
Folty: 0.7 bWAR

:Bowman:
05-16-2018, 10:42 AM
thewupk

Quote:

Originally Posted by thethe

I have made my feelings known. I think when you watch guys every day you know more than the stats. They are an aide in the evaluation. Maybe FOlty becomes a guy that can succeed without having any clue where the ball is going. It helps to throw 99.

Does fWAR 'normalize' HR/FB?

In FIP pitchers are in control of their homeruns given up. It's seen as a skill.

That said we are 25% through the season and both Folty and Newk are on pace to be 3.5-4 WAR pitchers. Definitely a 'everything has to go right' scenario.
05-16-2018, 11:03 AM
msstate7

Quote:

Originally Posted by thewupk

Folty 0.9 fWAR and Newk at 1.0 fWAR.

.

I like it. Hopefully we need an NL division series to declare a winner.
05-16-2018, 11:16 AM
Enscheff

Quote:

Originally Posted by thewupk

I do expect a pitcher WAR that is xwOBA based with walks and strikeouts to crop up soon. It's truly fielding independent and makes too much sense not to have it.

My only issue with xwOBA is it doesn't account for spray angle (pull vs oppo), nor does it account for batter handedness or speed.

For pitchers that isn't a very big deal. As they turn the lineup over, they tend to face the same mix of guys with different batting/skill profiles. I think xwOBA is the best rate stat available for pitchers. The next rather easy step is to multiply by IP to get a nice shiny new WAR value for pitchers.

For hitters it's a little less amazing, but still very good. Some guys have skills that allow them to consistently outproduce their xwOBA (hitting the ball to all fields, being left handed, being fast), and it shows up for them as "being lucky" when they aren't actually lucky. I'm also starting to think that hitting fly balls to the shorter areas of the field rather than to the huge expanses of CF is a skill that can contribute to guys appearing "lucky" on HRs.
05-16-2018, 11:17 AM
Enscheff

Quote:

Originally Posted by thewupk

In FIP pitchers are in control of their homeruns given up. It's seen as a skill.

That said we are 25% through the season and both Folty and Newk are on pace to be 3.5-4 WAR pitchers. Definitely a 'everything has to go right' scenario.

But, but, but...Newk throws "better" strikes!

Because...derrrpalytics!

Newk probably won't sustain a HR/9 of 0.58 in anything but the most magical of seasons.
05-16-2018, 11:27 AM
msstate7

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enscheff

But, but, but...Newk throws "better" strikes!

Because...derrrpalytics!

Newk probably won't sustain a HR/9 of 0.58 in anything but the most magical of seasons.

thethe really has you triggered. You seem obsessed with him
05-16-2018, 11:31 AM
Enscheff

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

thethe really has you triggered. You seem obsessed with him

And you with me...
05-16-2018, 11:41 AM
jpx7

Quote:

Originally Posted by thethe

I have made my feelings known. I think when you watch guys every day you know more than the stats. They are an aide in the evaluation. Maybe FOlty becomes a guy that can succeed without having any clue where the ball is going. It helps to throw 99.

Does fWAR 'normalize' HR/FB?

He looked to have plenty of idea where the ball was going yesterday, on at least 80% of his pitches; if anything, he was being too fine with his location, living on borderlines and working himself into trouble when he didn’t get the calls.
05-16-2018, 11:44 AM
Enscheff

Quote:

Originally Posted by thethe

I have made my feelings known. I think when you watch guys every day you know more than the stats. They are an aide in the evaluation. Maybe FOlty becomes a guy that can succeed without having any clue where the ball is going. It helps to throw 99.

Does fWAR 'normalize' HR/FB?

LOL....

Are you aware that teams have literally spent millions on analytics groups precisely because that statement is incorrect?

Derrrrrp!
05-16-2018, 11:56 AM
BeanieAntics

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enscheff

My only issue with xwOBA is it doesn't account for spray angle (pull vs oppo), nor does it account for batter handedness or speed.

For pitchers that isn't a very big deal. As they turn the lineup over, they tend to face the same mix of guys with different batting/skill profiles. I think xwOBA is the best rate stat available for pitchers. The next rather easy step is to multiply by IP to get a nice shiny new WAR value for pitchers.

For hitters it's a little less amazing, but still very good. Some guys have skills that allow them to consistently outproduce their xwOBA (hitting the ball to all fields, being left handed, being fast), and it shows up for them as "being lucky" when they aren't actually lucky. I'm also starting to think that hitting fly balls to the shorter areas of the field rather than to the huge expanses of CF is a skill that can contribute to guys appearing "lucky" on HRs.

Yeah I bet we are right around the corner of creating a new stat that is able to account for all of these factors that keep xwOBA from being ideal. xwOBA does a better job than most other metrics, but like you said it has some faults.
05-16-2018, 11:56 AM
Orphan Black

If Folty knew how to pitch at all he'd be the best pitcher in the league. Unfortunately he only knows how to throw.
05-16-2018, 11:59 AM
thethe

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpx7

He looked to have plenty of idea where the ball was going yesterday, on at least 80% of his pitches; if anything, he was being too fine with his location, living on borderlines and working himself into trouble when he didn’t get the calls.

Sadly I did not get to see the game yesterday as I'm on the west coast for work.

Folty has been better of late. Would still like to see him get batters out a bit more early in the count. I'll take your word for it that he was hitting the mitt better yesterday.
05-16-2018, 12:19 PM
thewupk

Quote:

Originally Posted by thethe

I have made my feelings known. I think when you watch guys every day you know more than the stats. They are an aide in the evaluation. Maybe FOlty becomes a guy that can succeed without having any clue where the ball is going. It helps to throw 99.

Does fWAR 'normalize' HR/FB?

Quote:

Originally Posted by thethe

Sadly I did not get to see the game yesterday as I'm on the west coast for work.

Folty has been better of late. Would still like to see him get batters out a bit more early in the count. I'll take your word for it that he was hitting the mitt better yesterday.

:HeywardWut:
05-16-2018, 12:22 PM
Enscheff

Doesn't matter. The eye test is all we need.
05-16-2018, 12:29 PM
Slippyjms

Quote:

Originally Posted by thethe

Sadly I did not get to see the game yesterday as I'm on the west coast for work.

Folty has been better of late. Would still like to see him get batters out a bit more early in the count. I'll take your word for it that he was hitting the mitt better yesterday.

I thought you watched them everyday. How are we supposed to rely on your "eye test" now?
05-16-2018, 12:35 PM
Managuarantano's Volunteers

Newcomb top 10 in xwOBA among pitchers with over 100 PAs, Folty is top 60.

Both have been really good this year
05-16-2018, 12:36 PM
thethe

Quote:

Originally Posted by thewupk

:HeywardWut:

Did I make one comment on his performance yesterday?
05-16-2018, 12:39 PM
Hawk

https://i.imgflip.com/2aebw6.jpg

but srsly

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