Analyzing Dallas Keuchel's Stuff
There has been some talk about the Braves maybe fitting Keuchel in the budget. The purpose of this post is to analyze Keuchel's stuff, not to debate whether or not he can/should be added to the roster.
Keuchel threw 5 pitches in 2018: SI (45%), SL (18%), FC (15%), CH (13%), FA (10%).
Those pitches break down as follows...
SI: Velo = 89.5 mph (Grade 39.0), XMov = 6.4" (Grade 32.9), VMov = 4.3" (Grade 56.0)
This sinker is a grade 40 pitch overall, and barely usable at the MLB level.
SL: Velo = 79.0 mph (Grade 26.0), XMov = -5.6" (Grade 65.9), ZMov = -2.5" (Grade 69.3)
The best slurve (or one of) in the game. This slow slider's impressive movement makes it a 65/70 pitch and is clearly the key to DK's success.
FC: Velo = 86.9 (Grade 41.5), XMov = -1.7" (Grade 53.2), ZMov = 3.6" (Grade 63.7)
This slow cutter with good movement is a 50/55, maybe a solid 55.
CH: Velo Delta = 10.1 mph (Grade 61.5), XMov = 8.2" (Grade 53.7), ZMov = 3.8" (Grade 54.4)
This is a legit plus change, pretty close to a 60 overall.
FA: Velo = 90.2 mph (Grade 38.8), XMov = -0.3" (Grade 22.4), ZMov = 7.7" (Grade 38.2)
The 4 seamer is a terrible pitch, so it's no wonder he rarely throws it.
Command: 2.5-2.75 BB/9 (Grade 55/60)
Above average to plus command.
So yeah, Keuchel is the prototypical soft tossing LHP who "just knows how to pitch". He uses good control and plus or better off speed stuff to induce weak contact and avoids getting hurt with poorly located fastballs at all costs. He gobbles up 180+ innings and produces 3+ wins because of it. For a prospect, the "just knows how to pitch" comment gets a dismissive chuckle, but for a guy with a track record like Keuchel it holds some real merit.
While Keuchel doesn't rely on fastball velocity for success, it's still good to see no real signs of declining stuff:
https://i.imgur.com/E3YotMp.jpg
which is certainly better to see than something like this:
https://i.imgur.com/OMvA8oZ.jpg
I have no issues with projecting DK as a 3+ win guy for the next 1-2 years. The 3rd year might get a little dicey, and the 4th year even more so. There are scenarios where DK makes sense for the current Braves roster, but I question whether or not they can truly afford another $15M+ player.
