Unreasonable Expectations

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01-09-2017, 11:07 AM
clvclv

Unreasonable Expectations

Several folks around here sure have them when it comes to the Braves' pitching prospects - going so far as to say the veteran acquisitions to open SunTrust Park is all but a sign that the organization has given up on them already. FWIW...

Aaron Blair (24 years old) - 15 starts, 2-7, 7.59 ERA, 1.657 WHIP, 1.8 HR/9, 5.9/4.4 K/BB Ratio

Matt Wisler (24 years old) - 45 starts, 15-21, 4.88 ERA, 1.381 WHIP, 1.5 HR/9, 6.6/2.8 K/BB Ratio

Shouldn't we cut bait with Folty too???

Folty's first 15 starts - 4-6, 5.71 ERA, 1.627 WHIP, 1.8 HR/9, 8/3 K/BB Ratio

Folty's first 37 starts - 13-12, 4.92 ERA, 1.448 WHIP, 1.5 HR/9, 8/2.8 K/BB Ratio

Furthermore...

Colon's first 17 starts - 4-7, 5.65 ERA, 1.617 WHIP, 1.1 HR/9, 6.3/4.3 K/BB Ratio

Glavine's first full season (34 starts) - 7-17, 4.56 ERA, 1.352 WHIP, 0.6 HR/9, 3.6/2.6 K/BB Ratio

Smoltz' first 12 starts - 2-7, 5.48 ERA, 1.672 WHIP, 1.4 HR/9, 5.2/4.6 K/BB Ratio

Learning to pitch at the major league level is a process, plain and simple. While I don't think anyone's crazy enough to predict similar careers for any of our prospects, even HOFers have struggled to adjust in the past.
01-09-2017, 11:13 AM
rico43

Based on his time in the majors thus far and the moments of brilliance he flashed as a rookie, I will be sorely disappointed if Wisler isn't a quality major league pitcher by the second half of this coming season.
01-09-2017, 11:23 AM
TheBravos

I have waaaay more confidence in Wisler. Blair?...just really hasn't given me much hope.
01-09-2017, 11:42 AM
nsacpi

I'll be surprised if Wisler doesn't develop into a quality major league starter.

However, I do think we are going to need to acquire someone to round out the rotation in 2018. Teheran, Wisler, Dickey, Folty, plus one more. I don't think there is anyone within the organization likely to be ready by the start of 2018. This makes the idea of trading away Wisler as part of a package for Dozier a dubious idea.
01-09-2017, 11:43 AM
clvclv

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheBravos

I have waaaay more confidence in Wisler. Blair?...just really hasn't given me much hope.

The entire point of the thread - other than a bigger fastball and a few more Ks, exactly what more has Folty shown then? He's coughed up just as many HRs as the other two and has walked just as many batters as Wisler.

When you look at those early-career numbers from Big Sexy, Glavine, and Smoltz, apparently lots of people here would have sent them packing.
01-09-2017, 11:56 AM
Knucksie

Quote:

Originally Posted by clvclv

When you look at those early-career numbers from Big Sexy, Glavine, and Smoltz, apparently lots of people here would have sent them packing.

Exactly! The landscape has obviously changed over the last quarter century plus, but the philosophy is exactly the same. Fans need to learn to have a little patience. Some are obviously going to develop at different rates and waves of prospects arrive have different ETA's.

If we compare the situation then with now, Glavine and Smoltz were considered important in the system, but certainly not projected to be Cy Young-caliber, let alone eventual HOF inductees. Avery and Mercker, especially, carried a lot of hype, while Hank Aaron said that Tommy Greene was possibly the best of them all. Lilliquist and Pete Smith fizzled.

It's still way to early to predict who's got the long term potential among this batch. Seems like they seem to have expectations for Folty. Not really sure how they perceive Wisler. Sentiment here seems to be more "thumbs down." Patience! If he were packaged, it would definitely be "selling low" and there aren't clearer indications yet about how he'll eventually top out.
01-09-2017, 12:43 PM
thethe

Quote:

Originally Posted by nsacpi

I'll be surprised if Wisler doesn't develop into a quality major league starter.

However, I do think we are going to need to acquire someone to round out the rotation in 2018. Teheran, Wisler, Dickey, Folty, plus one more. I don't think there is anyone within the organization likely to be ready by the start of 2018. This makes the idea of trading away Wisler as part of a package for Dozier a dubious idea.

I think it would be a huge dussapointment if Newcomb isn't ready come 2018.
01-09-2017, 01:12 PM
Chico

Quote:

Originally Posted by thethe

I think it would be a huge dussapointment if Newcomb isn't ready come 2018.

I think Newcomb will be ready this year and believe Weigel and Fried could be ready in 2018.

As far as the conversation on Wisler and Blair. I do not think we've given up on them. If you can give them more time in the minors when you're not on the clock and have short term vets to trade away for prospects why would you not do that?

I think Blair will have a bounce back season. He's had great numbers in the minors, and the new pitching coach mentioned how the Braves have been altering each pitching prospect in their first year and not to judge them based on their first season. That seems to add up with some of the turnarounds we've seen from guys like Touki and Newcomb.
01-09-2017, 01:30 PM
Enscheff

For someone who claims to judge players based on what they "see", you sure haven't been watching Folty much if you think Wisler and Blair are even in the same area code as far as stuff goes.

Further, you are comparing Wisler and Blair to 2 HOF pitchers and a guy in Colon who also had far superior stuff to these young guys.

Now I'll go find 1000 examples of guys who started out crappy like Wisler and Blair and remained crappy. Oh wait, I don't need to waste time doing it because it's obvious to anyone that isn't a total homer.
01-09-2017, 01:41 PM
thewupk

Quote:

Originally Posted by clvclv

Several folks around here sure have them when it comes to the Braves' pitching prospects - going so far as to say the veteran acquisitions to open SunTrust Park is all but a sign that the organization has given up on them already. FWIW...

There is a difference between giving up on them and being disappointed in what we've gotten so far. Clearly the Braves have not given up on them as they are still in the organization. They have been disappointed because they no longer have rotation spots that they hoped they would have locked down by now.
01-09-2017, 01:44 PM
UNCBlue012

I actually really like Wisler. I think he'll become a solid 2-3 type guy. Blair, I'm not 100% sure about.
01-09-2017, 02:56 PM
clvclv

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enscheff

For someone who claims to judge players based on what they "see", you sure haven't been watching Folty much if you think Wisler and Blair are even in the same area code as far as stuff goes.

Further, you are comparing Wisler and Blair to 2 HOF pitchers and a guy in Colon who also had far superior stuff to these young guys.

Now I'll go find 1000 examples of guys who started out crappy like Wisler and Blair and remained crappy. Oh wait, I don't need to waste time doing it because it's obvious to anyone that isn't a total homer.

For someone who believes in nothing but the numbers you sure don't put much weight in them, do you? Yet another perfect example that your vaunted numbers simply can't always tell the whole story. At least you believe so in Folty's case apparently.

For someone who crows about reading comprehension so much, you might consider re-reading the last sentence of the original post.
01-09-2017, 03:02 PM
clvclv

Quote:

Originally Posted by thewupk

There is a difference between giving up on them and being disappointed in what we've gotten so far. Clearly the Braves have not given up on them as they are still in the organization. They have been disappointed because they no longer have rotation spots that they hoped they would have locked down by now.

R-E-B-U-I-L-D.

It happens. Aaron Nola went 6-9 with a 4.78 ERA last season. Jake Thompson went 3-6 with a 5.70. Zach Efflin went 3-5 with a 5.54.

Haven't heard many people question whether the Phillies should move on from any of them yet.
01-09-2017, 03:44 PM
smootness

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enscheff

For someone who claims to judge players based on what they "see", you sure haven't been watching Folty much if you think Wisler and Blair are even in the same area code as far as stuff goes.

Further, you are comparing Wisler and Blair to 2 HOF pitchers and a guy in Colon who also had far superior stuff to these young guys.

Now I'll go find 1000 examples of guys who started out crappy like Wisler and Blair and remained crappy. Oh wait, I don't need to waste time doing it because it's obvious to anyone that isn't a total homer.

Every once in a while, your condescension is warranted, even if still unnecessary. This is not one of those times. The fact that Glavine and Smoltz became HOFers is exactly the point. Of course it's unlikely Wisler or Blair ever gets to that level, but the fact is, both those guys started out very poorly and likely would have had fans all over them today, and they turned it around in a big way.

No one is arguing that because Wisler and Blair have struggled, that means they'll end up being good. And I don't think anyone is even arguing that they could end up in the same spot as Glavine and Smoltz. The point is simply that you need to have patience with young players, especially pitchers. No one can say what Wisler or Blair will become at this point. No one. Not even you, you once-in-a-generation cornholing sage.
01-10-2017, 09:26 AM
thewupk

Quote:

Originally Posted by clvclv

R-E-B-U-I-L-D.

It happens. Aaron Nola went 6-9 with a 4.78 ERA last season. Jake Thompson went 3-6 with a 5.70. Zach Efflin went 3-5 with a 5.54.

Haven't heard many people question whether the Phillies should move on from any of them yet.

What does that have anything to do with what I said? The Braves actually want to win right now. That's why they got Matt Kemp. It's why they got non sucky starters for the rotation. If they were truly rebuilding in the classic sense then the likes of Wisler and Blair would still be getting their lumps.

Or maybe the Braves just don't have confidence in them? Maybe they don't like what they have seen since they have been in the origination.

I do think it's funny that every time any kind of pitching prospect comes up and struggles that someone always brings up the early struggles of the holy trinity.
01-10-2017, 10:20 AM
smootness

Quote:

Originally Posted by thewupk

What does that have anything to do with what I said? The Braves actually want to win right now. That's why they got Matt Kemp. It's why they got non sucky starters for the rotation. If they were truly rebuilding in the classic sense then the likes of Wisler and Blair would still be getting their lumps.

Or maybe the Braves just don't have confidence in them? Maybe they don't like what they have seen since they have been in the origination.

I do think it's funny that every time any kind of pitching prospect comes up and struggles that someone always brings up the early struggles of the holy trinity.

It's always worth keeping in mind. The reason we seem to expect young guys to perform immediately is because of guys like Fernandez who were lights out from day one. So it's always good to keep in mind that's generally an exception, not the rule.

But I think part of the reason for bringing in the veterans is to challenge the young pitchers and let them know they won't have a rotation spot guaranteed. They're going to have to earn it.
01-10-2017, 10:29 AM
thewupk

Quote:

Originally Posted by smootness

It's always worth keeping in mind. The reason we seem to expect young guys to perform immediately is because of guys like Fernandez who were lights out from day one. So it's always good to keep in mind that's generally an exception, not the rule.

But I think part of the reason for bringing in the veterans is to challenge the young pitchers and let them know they won't have a rotation spot guaranteed. They're going to have to earn it.

I think it's becoming more and more the rule. Not necessarily ace stuff out of the gate but some form of competency. Pitchers are developed to throw harder and have their best max stuff in their early 20's now and then get hurt 5 years later.
01-10-2017, 11:05 AM
clvclv

Quote:

Originally Posted by thewupk

What does that have anything to do with what I said? The Braves actually want to win right now. That's why they got Matt Kemp. It's why they got non sucky starters for the rotation. If they were truly rebuilding in the classic sense then the likes of Wisler and Blair would still be getting their lumps.

Or maybe the Braves just don't have confidence in them? Maybe they don't like what they have seen since they have been in the origination.

I do think it's funny that every time any kind of pitching prospect comes up and struggles that someone always brings up the early struggles of the holy trinity.

The Braves are obviously trying to do both - win while rebuilding - which apparently maddens some people. Many of us don't see the problem - we're chomping at the bit to see the kids, but we have enough faith in the brass to believe that they're capable of determining when each player's ready.

They understandably feel the pressure to put a better product on the field in 2017 with the new stadium. They initially caved to the excitement over the youngsters and rushed them. In hindsight, they weren't ready - Folty included. "Taking their lumps" would be a waste at this point - they were able to get those "non-sucky" starters you mentioned for a year. That's simply good management IMO - as smootness mentions, you put speed bumps in their way this time. However, these speed bumps are good enough to keep you from losing 95-100 games even if you have to keep them in the rotation all season. The brass simply has said "we're not putting you in the rotation because we feel like we have to" this time.

If /when Wisler and Blair prove they can perform for more than a few starts, they'll get their shots. If the level of competency you feel is becoming the rule at such young ages, the three arms the Braves brought in wouldn't have jobs would they?
01-10-2017, 12:52 PM
Enscheff

Quote:

Originally Posted by smootness

Every once in a while, your condescension is warranted, even if still unnecessary. This is not one of those times. The fact that Glavine and Smoltz became HOFers is exactly the point. Of course it's unlikely Wisler or Blair ever gets to that level, but the fact is, both those guys started out very poorly and likely would have had fans all over them today, and they turned it around in a big way.

No one is arguing that because Wisler and Blair have struggled, that means they'll end up being good. And I don't think anyone is even arguing that they could end up in the same spot as Glavine and Smoltz. The point is simply that you need to have patience with young players, especially pitchers. No one can say what Wisler or Blair will become at this point. No one. Not even you, you once-in-a-generation cornholing sage.

How is the success of Smoltz, Glavine and Colon at all a sign Wisler and Blair will be successful? Wisler and Blair are not in any way, shape, or form, comparable to Smoltz or Colon (superior stuff), or Glavine (a LHer whose approach induced weak contact). Folty is a lot like Smoltz in that he has electric stuff, but the mental aspect of the game is holding him back, so it is logical to compare them.

So tell me, how does the success of Glavine, Smoltz and Colon at all relate to Wisler and Blair other than fan homerism that those young pitchers will still turn out OK?

This is the same stupid argument kids make when they drop out of college and cite Bill Gates as evidence they can still succeed in life without a college degree. They aren't Bill Gates, just like Blair isn't John Smoltz. The kid is more likely to be a struggling realtor selling double wides to toothless Southerners like Clv, just like Blair is likely going to be the next Tyrell Jenkins.