Extending SPs

We have seen 2 young SPs recently extended by other teams: Nola and Severino.

Here are the breakdowns of their deals...

Nola
2019, Age 26, Arb 1 - $6M ($6.6M estimate)
2020, Age 27, Arb 2 - $8M
2021, Age 28, Arb 3 - $11.75M
2022, Age 29, FA 1 - $15M
2023, Age 30, FA 2 - $16M option ($4.25M buy out)

Severino
2019, Age 25, Arb 1 - $6M (Super Two, $5.1M estimate)
2020, Age 26, Arb 2 - $10M
2021, Age 27, Arb 3 - $10.25
2022, Age 28, Arb 4 - $11M
2023, Age 29, FA 1 - $15M option ($2.75M buyout)

In both cases, the teams are able to be done with the pitcher before they experience any decline in their 30s.

The only pitcher on the Braves roster to possibly extend is Folty, who was also a Super Two. His current control and contract situation breaks down as follows...

2019, Age 27, Arb 2 - $5.5M
2020, Age 28, Arb 3
2021, Age 29, Arb 4

As is plainly evident, Folty is already controlled through the entirety of his 20s, with zero downside risk taken on by the club (he can be dumped at any time). Guaranteeing Folty money at this point would only be buying the Braves control over seasons in his 30s, which are likely to be the beginning of his decline. Due to that fact, I would expect that year of control to be in the form of a club option.

Is it worth taking on the risk of guaranteeing Folty $20M+ in 2020/2021 to secure a ~$15M option over his Age 30 season?

As much as I've been rooting for Folty to break out for years now, and have predicted him to be the next Ace of the staff, I would never be on board with extending him at this point in time. He is too inconsistent to risk guaranteeing him money for his Arb years in exchange for control over a FA season that is likely to be the start of his decline.

I agree.

I would do a deal with Folty similar to the Nola deal. It would guarantee his age 30 season and give us an option on his age 31 season.

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Originally Posted by nsacpi

I would do a deal with Folty similar to the Nola deal. It would guarantee his age 30 season and give us an option on his age 31 season.

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And in the process you would also be guaranteeing his age 28 and 29 seasons...in exchange for control over likely decline years.

No thanks.

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

And in the process you would also be guaranteeing his age 28 and 29 seasons...in exchange for control over likely decline years.

No thanks.

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if we can get him at or below the market price for a 2 win pitcher for his age 30 season and an option for something similar for his age 31 season I think the upside compensation is sufficient

i prefer to do these extensions with position players, but i think we have room to do this with one pitcher...as long as there is one option year involved

I wouldn’t extend him at this time as he is still unpredictable. Maybe if he pitches well, offer an extension after 2020 if he is willing to talk.

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Originally Posted by 4maddux_cy's

I wouldn’t extend him at this time as he is still unpredictable. Maybe if he pitches well, offer an extension after 2020 if he is willing to talk.

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When he is 1 year away from FA? That's not a very good recipe for getting value.

If Folty is really good this year and is willing to talk with 2 years left before FA, I'd be willing to buy his age 30 and 31 seasons if the price was right. But I wouldn't offer him anything right now. We still have 3 years of control left and I wouldn't feel a sense of urgency with anything. Even if he is terrific this year, we still have him for the '20 and '21 seasons. If he walks after that, so be it. By that point we should have a nice little rotation built up around him.

The Nola deal is a fantastic signing for the fillies. Folty does not have Nola's track record. So we have to consider the possibility that Folty could be extented for less than Nola was. I'm all about signings that are good value. If the value is there for the club you do it, recognizing there is always risk. But there is a point where the risk-reward tips in favor of an extension for Folty.

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

When he is 1 year away from FA? That's not a very good recipe for getting value.

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I agree but just do not feel offering guaranteed money before then doesn’t make sense either. And the deal would have to make sense in the first place.

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

We have seen 2 young SPs recently extended by other teams: Nola and Severino.

Here are the breakdowns of their deals...

Nola
2019, Age 26, Arb 1 - $6M ($6.6M estimate)
2020, Age 27, Arb 2 - $8M
2021, Age 28, Arb 3 - $11.75M
2022, Age 29, FA 1 - $15M
2023, Age 30, FA 2 - $16M option ($4.25M buy out)

Severino
2019, Age 25, Arb 1 - $6M (Super Two, $5.1M estimate)
2020, Age 26, Arb 2 - $10M
2021, Age 27, Arb 3 - $10.25
2022, Age 28, Arb 4 - $11M
2023, Age 29, FA 1 - $15M option ($2.75M buyout)

In both cases, the teams are able to be done with the pitcher before they experience any decline in their 30s.

The only pitcher on the Braves roster to possibly extend is Folty, who was also a Super Two. His current control and contract situation breaks down as follows...

2019, Age 27, Arb 2 - $5.5M
2020, Age 28, Arb 3
2021, Age 29, Arb 4

As is plainly evident, Folty is already controlled through the entirety of his 20s, with zero downside risk taken on by the club (he can be dumped at any time). Guaranteeing Folty money at this point would only be buying the Braves control over seasons in his 30s, which are likely to be the beginning of his decline. Due to that fact, I would expect that year of control to be in the form of a club option.

Is it worth taking on the risk of guaranteeing Folty $20M+ in 2020/2021 to secure a ~$15M option over his Age 30 season?

As much as I've been rooting for Folty to break out for years now, and have predicted him to be the next Ace of the staff, I would never be on board with extending him at this point in time. He is too inconsistent to risk guaranteeing him money for his Arb years in exchange for control over a FA season that is likely to be the start of his decline.

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In a vacuum, no. He's been solid but he's been inconsistent. Pitchers throwing really hard are injury risks.

If this Braves team is going to refuse to sign free agents then yes. Spend the money on something. IF Folty is really a 3+ win pitcher, then I'd like some affordable team options where he is likely to be a 2+ win pitcher. I would need to get a bargain on those option years.

I think the more interesting decision would be on the younger guys. Soroka has had a shoulder scare....could/should you look to lock him up? Consider locking up Touki and/or Newk before/if they get command and control?

The right decision on paper is maximize team control in the 20s. However, cheap @ss liberty makes me think that you might have to spend your money by being aggressive on extensions.

imo it doesnt make sense to lock up a player who has yet to do anything at the major league level

the player I would look to extent this spring is Acuna

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Originally Posted by 4maddux_cy's

I agree but just do not feel offering guaranteed money before then doesn’t make sense either. And the deal would have to make sense in the first place.

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The whole idea would be taking on that risk in exchange for his age 30 and maybe 31 seasons. Its tough with Folty because right now he hasn't done enough for me to feel comfortable assuming that risk, but if he does much more then, at that point, he may be more willing to bet on himself.

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Originally Posted by nsacpi

imo it doesnt make sense to lock up a player who has yet to do anything at the major league level

the player I would look to extent this spring is Acuna

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I wonder if the Blue Jays would lock up Vlad Jr. beyond his arb years if they had the opportunity to do so. I'd imagine that the answer would be yes, but obviously he is a pretty special exception.

I also wonder if the Phillies are having some regrets/reservations about the Kingery deal they signed last offseason.

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Originally Posted by BeanieAntics

The whole idea would be taking on that risk in exchange for his age 30 and maybe 31 seasons. Its tough with Folty because right now he hasn't done enough for me to feel comfortable assuming that risk, but if he does much more then, at that point, he may be more willing to bet on himself.

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We are basically agreeing. I don’t think it makes sense to extend now for Atlanta. Not sure it would for him after 2020 if he plays well. But if he does and is then interested then it doesn’t hurt to at least have dialogue at that point.

Extent Fried

Folty's a little older and less proven than Sevy/Nola but if you could get something a little cheaper, with 1 less year and see if he repeats a similar year. It makes a little sense to try and extend him.

Or just play it out year by year and take the QO in a few years.

Julio is probably gone after the year, Gaus could get non-tendered, and you still have Soroka, Touki, Fried, Gohara, Anderson, Wilson, Tarnok, Wright, Muller, Wentz, possibly the 9th pick if signed in the pipeline. Obviously not all will pan out but lot of options down the line.

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Originally Posted by BeanieAntics

I wonder if the Blue Jays would lock up Vlad Jr. beyond his arb years if they had the opportunity to do so. I'd imagine that the answer would be yes, but obviously he is a pretty special exception.

I also wonder if the Phillies are having some regrets/reservations about the Kingery deal they signed last offseason.

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yes...Vlad is the exception who proves the rule

If this is how teams approach it from now on then there should be a ton of good SP hitting free agency in their early 30's.