FG 2019 Trade Value

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07-18-2019, 11:29 AM
Enscheff

FG 2019 Trade Value

FG has released spots 11-50 of their 2019 trade value series. It isn't the straight "dollars per projected WAR minus projected salary" list Dave Cameron used to make, but Kiley gets more input from MLB execs. The methodology is different, maybe better, and is still a great read (especially about how different organizations value different players and contracts much differently).

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-trade-value-11-to-20/

So far, Freeman is #36 as an elite bat with some control, and Soroka is #42 as a MOR SP with lots of control and upside for a bit more.

The Top 10 has yet to be revealed, and the 2 obvious members of the trade value list haven't appeared yet. We've long expected them to be insanely valuable after the Braves stole their entire prime...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enscheff

The Braves may have the 2 most valuable assets in the game right now.

Based on the extra weight teams seem to give elite offensive performers (at least according to Kiley), Acuna may be #1, and certainly Top 5. I expect Albies to slot in around #5 as well with the bulk of his value coming from the dirt cheap nature of his contract.

It will be interesting to see if Kiley has any quotes from around the league expressing just how much of a "bargain" those contracts are.
07-19-2019, 10:22 AM
Super

1-10 posted!

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-trade-value-1-to-10/
07-19-2019, 10:56 AM
Enscheff

Albies at #8, Acuna at #1, pretty much exactly as expected the moment those deals were signed. Albies is so cheap, and Acuna is so good.

Bodes well for the Braves when they have to blow it up now that this season is over after a 3 game losing streak.
07-19-2019, 11:02 AM
bravesfanMatt

Did the gnats deal is our death blow. In an ironic twist we are going to trade mlb players to the giants now.
07-19-2019, 01:36 PM
Enscheff

I couldn't imagine having to interact with the moronic public as a profession lol...

1:22
Daniel: Do you put much stock into Tatis’ low xwOBA? His xwOBA is only .333, which is significantly lower than a Machado type player.

1:22
Kiley McDaniel: GUYS HE’S 20, HE WILL GET BETTER

1:23
Kiley McDaniel: Machado at age 20

1:23
Kiley McDaniel: 97 wRC+ over 51 games

1:23
Kiley McDaniel: 3ish WAR if annualized

1:24
Kiley McDaniel: like please do the smallest bit of research

1:24
Kiley McDaniel: this is less than 15 seconds
07-19-2019, 01:52 PM
cajunrevenge

Tired of their butt hurt over Albies contract. Let's see them go run a mid market team paying Yankee market prices to players.
07-19-2019, 02:17 PM
Jaw

Trout seems far too high on that list to me.
07-19-2019, 02:20 PM
jpx7

Quote:

Originally Posted by cajunrevenge

Tired of their butt hurt over Albies contract. Let's see them go run a mid market team paying Yankee market prices to players.

I’m more annoyed that such complaints often seem to come out of a place of condescension, as if Albies is too stupid/poor/foreign to make a decision for himself regarding his professional future.
07-19-2019, 03:11 PM
Carp

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jaw

Trout seems far too high on that list to me.

I mean he is possibly the greatest overall player since Mays (outside of a roided up Bonds). He will be top 50 all-time in bWAR before his 30th birthday. That contract is massive (Stroman joke forthcoming), but he's still projected to have plenty of surplus value, even at 400 million.
07-19-2019, 03:14 PM
Enscheff

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jaw

Trout seems far too high on that list to me.

It's hard for some to grasp the value of getting 9+ WAR out of a single roster spot. It's even harder to rank a guy like that when half the league literally can't afford his contract, so his trade value to them is almost 0.

However, large market teams would move heaven and earth for the right to pay Trout $35M per year, so his trade value is still extremely high.
07-19-2019, 04:04 PM
mqt

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enscheff

Albies at #8, Acuna at #1, pretty much exactly as expected the moment those deals were signed. Albies is so cheap, and Acuna is so good.

Bodes well for the Braves when they have to blow it up now that this season is over after a 3 game losing streak.

If you include this year and assume we pick up all options and the Tigers do not, in total we only owe Acuña and Albies $7 million more than Detroit still owes Miguel Cabrera.
07-19-2019, 04:26 PM
zbhargrove

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jaw

Trout seems far too high on that list to me.

He’s certainly no Bryce Harper
07-19-2019, 04:28 PM
striker42

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jaw

Trout seems far too high on that list to me.

Was marketing value included on that list? If so, Trout should be high. He's the face of baseball.
07-19-2019, 04:30 PM
nsacpi

Trout is so good I'm making him an honorary Golden Wren.
07-19-2019, 04:44 PM
Jaw

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enscheff

It's hard for some to grasp the value of getting 9+ WAR out of a single roster spot. It's even harder to rank a guy like that when half the league literally can't afford his contract, so his trade value to them is almost 0.

However, large market teams would move heaven and earth for the right to pay Trout $35M per year, so his trade value is still extremely high.

I get that 8 or 9 WAR from one spot carries a massive premium, and I get that he has plenty of surplus value. But any of the handful of teams who could conceive of taking that contract would literally have to rearrange most of their roster before acquiring him because of the luxury tax. After doing that, what kind of trade package are they realistically going to offer?

Maybe he's top 3 in value theoretically, but practically speaking I don't see him in top 10. That kind of financial commitment just excludes too many teams and too many roster combinations.
07-19-2019, 04:53 PM
Enscheff

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jaw

I get that 8 or 9 WAR from one spot carries a massive premium, and I get that he has plenty of surplus value. But any of the handful of teams who could conceive of taking that contract would literally have to rearrange most of their roster before acquiring him because of the luxury tax. After doing that, what kind of trade package are they realistically going to offer?

Maybe he's top 3 in value theoretically, but practically speaking I don't see him in top 10. That kind of financial commitment just excludes too many teams and too many roster combinations.

Well...this list was compiled after talking to execs from MLB teams. So either you're wrong, Kiley is lying about talking to execs, or the execs are lying to Kiley.

I suppose it's up to the reader to decide which is more likely.
07-19-2019, 04:56 PM
Jaw

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enscheff

Well...this list was compiled after talking to execs from MLB teams. So either you're wrong, Kiley is lying about talking to execs, or the execs are lying to Kiley.

I suppose it's up to the reader to decide which is more likely.

Oh yeah?

Well.....that's a pretty good point.
07-19-2019, 10:58 PM
cajunrevenge

What's Kyle Wrights surplus value?