MLBTR Makes Predictions on top 50 free agents (Braves fans won't be happy)

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11-07-2019, 11:56 PM
rico43

MLBTR Makes Predictions on top 50 free agents (Braves fans won't be happy)

Major League Baseball Trade Rumors = one of the best news clearinghouse sites on the Net -- just posted predictions on where the top 50 free agents would land. For much of the article, it seems they had forgotten Atlanta was in the league and has money to spend.

It's hard getting past the top three predictions. Second was Rendon re-upping with Washington for seven years, $235 million, then followed that with Strasburg returning for six years, $180 million. That's not a long way from half-a-billion dollars spent on two players. With Scherzer still collecting what was the biggest salary in baseball, it's hard to image that they are dancing around a luxury tax.

But one by one, they shot down all of the dominant Braves hot stove rumors:

Wheeler to Phillies 5/$100 million

Donaldson to Rangers 3/$75 million

Bumgarner to Twins 4/$72 million

Grandal to Reds 4/$68 million

Keuchel to White Sox 3/$39 million

Teheran to Mariners 2/$18

Just when you'd think they were ignoring the Braves outright, they had them signing two free agents:

Cole Hamels, 2/$30 million

Mike Moustakis 2/$20 million

Cause for gloom, joy, euphoria? Or, ehh, okay?
11-08-2019, 12:27 AM
bravesfanMatt

Go look at their 2018 predictions and how they did. Hint. It wasn’t pretty. Not knocking you Rico. Just saying they are literally guessing like everyone else.
11-08-2019, 12:40 AM
The Chosen One

Getting Hamels and Moose for 25 million AAV wouldn't be that bad actually. My only fear is if Snit treats Hamels like he did Keuchel, i.e., Soroka and Fried get pushed off the playoff rotation to let Hamels start game 1 because he's the vet.
11-08-2019, 01:17 AM
Enscheff

Didn’t time warp back 4 days?
11-08-2019, 07:42 AM
Jaw

That's just a guesswork clickbait article, but I would be okay with that outcome. I'm no big fan of Hamels, but of the others listed here the only deal I found attractive was Donaldson.
11-08-2019, 08:08 AM
Snowman

I know it's probably true that some teams are, but I can't understand anyone without a hole at second looking at Moustakas. He's a league average bat; how is that acceptable at a corner?
11-08-2019, 08:32 AM
Carp

I think DK ends up on an NL East team. Probably the Phillies.

Wheeler is tough one. I think the Yanks will definitely have interest being that he's proven he can pitch in NY. Phillies also match up, as do the Nats if they lose Strasburg in FA.

JT goes to Miami.

Bumgarner resigns with San Fran.
11-08-2019, 08:45 AM
Carp

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snowman

I know it's probably true that some teams are, but I can't understand anyone without a hole at second looking at Moustakas. He's a league average bat; how is that acceptable at a corner?

He's not an amazing hitter, but since 2015 he's maintained a woba of .343. That's not bad by any means and perfectly in line for a 3b. His 2019 wOBA of .348 ranked 14th among qualified 3B.
11-08-2019, 09:12 AM
Snowman

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carp

He's not an amazing hitter, but since 2015 he's maintained a woba of .343. That's not bad by any means and perfectly in line for a 3b. His 2019 wOBA of .348 ranked 14th among qualified 3B.

That's actually about 20 points higher than I thought, to be honest. So rather than a league average hitter., he's a league average 3B.
11-08-2019, 09:40 AM
Tapate50

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enscheff

Didn’t time warp back 4 days?

Time is a flat circle
11-08-2019, 12:55 PM
Southcack77

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snowman

That's actually about 20 points higher than I thought, to be honest. So rather than a league average hitter., he's a league average 3B.

20% less productive than Donaldson at the plate and a downgrade defensively.

I feel like Moose and Grandal isn't enough offense.
11-08-2019, 01:12 PM
msstate7

Quote:

Originally Posted by Southcack77

20% less productive than Donaldson at the plate and a downgrade defensively.

I feel like Moose and Grandal isn't enough offense.

I think you'll see even more offense from Acuna and albies though
11-08-2019, 01:43 PM
mfree80

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

I think you'll see even more offense from Acuna and albies though

...And likely less from Donaldson wherever he ends up.
11-08-2019, 02:43 PM
thewupk

Quote:

Originally Posted by Southcack77

20% less productive than Donaldson at the plate and a downgrade defensively.

I feel like Moose and Grandal isn't enough offense.

Let's look at it from a weighted runs created perspective

2019 Braves
Donaldson: 116
Mac+Flowers: 73

Now going off of what Grandal and Moustakas have done in recent years and looking at a 75/25 split at catcher you'd get these numbers
Moustakas: 85
Grandal+Flowers: ~90

So the offense would drop when looking at those two positions combined. I mean short of doing JD and Grandal that's going to happen regardless. JD was just that good offensively for the team. The good news though is that Moustakas + Grandall/Flowers should come close to matching the WAR of Donaldson + Mac/Flowers
11-08-2019, 03:14 PM
Carp

Quote:

Originally Posted by thewupk

Let's look at it from a weighted runs created perspective

2019 Braves
Donaldson: 116
Mac+Flowers: 73

Now going off of what Grandal and Moustakas have done in recent years and looking at a 75/25 split at catcher you'd get these numbers
Moustakas: 85
Grandal+Flowers: ~90

So the offense would drop when looking at those two positions combined. I mean short of doing JD and Grandal that's going to happen regardless. JD was just that good offensively for the team. The good news though is that Moustakas + Grandall/Flowers should come close to matching the WAR of Donaldson + Mac/Flowers

Worth noting that a platoon of Riley and Moose could produce some very good results that could close that gap quite a bit.
11-08-2019, 04:16 PM
thewupk

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carp

Worth noting that a platoon of Riley and Moose could produce some very good results that could close that gap quite a bit.

As it stands. If Riley is getting significant ABs against lefties I would want it in the OF where we currently have two guys who are blackholes. Moose is respectable there.
11-08-2019, 04:33 PM
bravesfanMatt

Right handed hitting Jogun is pretty good
11-08-2019, 04:55 PM
Southcack77

I think to maintain or improve the team's offense you have to more or less maintain production at two lineup spots and improve a third.

Asking a 30 year old catcher to hit cleanup in October without a deep order behind him is worrisome to me.

I do realize that Anthopolous has yet to convert surplus highly rated prospects into cheap, controllable assets with a fair amount of surplus value but it seems like that is the secret sauce to actually breaking this problem open.