After Newcomb's first start, I analyzed his stuff according to Statcast and came to this conclusion:
In conclusion, Newk looked to have a ~60 4 seamer with average velo and good movement. His curve is a good above average downer, but sometimes he lets it flatten out and leaves it up in the zone. His change appears to be almost nonexistent. He needs to work on command, specifically keeping the FA away from belt high. He also needs to work on staying on top of that curve to avoid having it flatten out, staying up, and getting hammered. Lastly, that change needs to be more of a weapon than something he throws twice a game if he wants to consistently make it through an MLB lineup stacked with RHed hitters 3x or more.
We all know his command hasn't improved, and it has actually gotten worse as far as the BB rate is concerned. It is still solidly a 40 or worse.
But what about his repertoire?
Here are his season numbers for his pitches:
FA (613): 93.2, 4.9x, 10.7z
CU (221): 77.9, -5.6x, -6.8z
SL (76): 80.9, -7.0x, -1.3z
CH (72): 85.0, 8.2x, 7.5z
The FA is still a 60 pitch, featuring above average velocity for a LHer, and above average movement.
The CU is still a 60+ pitch, featuring above average movement, and at least average velocity. It couples with the FA to form a solid 2 pitch base.
The SL, which I wasn't sure was actually a slider or a flat CU, has seemingly been relegated to his 4th pitch. He threw it 4 times against the Dodgers last night, and 8 times vs the Phils on 7/29. He is either getting better at staying on top of his CU, or he is using the SL less...either way it's a good thing until he refines command of his more important pitches.
The CH features a decent velo delta from his FA (8.2 mph, average for MLB LHers is ~9), and it is a little flatter than MLB average for LHers. It is also a bit below average in horizontal movement (8.2 vs 8.9), but that movement away from RHers is what he needs.
He has replaced most of his SL usage over the last 2 games with his CH vs RHed hitters. In his first 4 starts, he threw the CH about 2% of the time. In his next 4 starts he threw it a bit more. He threw the CH at least 16.4% of the time vs the Dodgers last night, and 18.8% of the time against the Phils on 7/29.
This increase in CH usage is the most encouraging development over Newk's first 10 starts, which is why I bolded that sentence in my earlier conclusion. His CH generates the highest swing strike percentage of all his pitches at 20.8%. It is vital that he fine tunes that pitch, improves his location with it, and is able to rely on it vs RHers.
So yes, Newk obviously needs to work on his command, but the foundation of a plus FA/CU combo and a usable CH gives him that #3 SP upside that consistently produces 3 WAR seasons. Keep working on the CH, keep working on the command, and don't get hurt.
