Where are the 2019 Braves on the Expected Win Curve

The starting point is the 48 wins that define a team of replacement level players. Let's add from there

Bench and pen: 5 wins (53 running total)

Catcher: 2 wins (55)

First: 5 wins (60)

Second: 4 wins (64)

Short: 2 wins (66)

Third: 4 wins (70)

Left: 5 wins (75)

Center: 3 wins (78)

Right: 2 wins (80)

Folty: 4 wins (84)

Gausman: 3 wins (87)

Newcomb: 2 wins (89)

Teheran: 1 win (90)

Fifth starter: 1 win (91)

We aren't really going to pitch Julio are we? Not with Soroka/Fried/Touki/Wright all available?

I don't know what its going to take to finally give Fried a job. He could easily be a 2 win guy with upside for much more (4).

Some tehteh hot takes on pitchers...

Fried ermergs as a potential TOR canddiate 11/3/2017

He (Allard) will be top 20 by the ed of next season 2/5/2018

sentiment will change quickly this season....Newcomb will be providing his prime performance 2/7/2018

Soroka will be replacing Folty in July 4/23/2018

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

Fried ermergs as a potential TOR canddiate 11/3/2017

He (Allard) will be top 20 by the ed of next season 2/5/2018

sentiment will change quickly this season....Newcomb will be providing his prime performance 2/7/2018

Soroka will be replacing Folty in July 4/23/2018

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Welcome back thethe. You should remember that this type of optimism is not well received by some here! :elefant:

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Originally Posted by thethe

We aren't really going to pitch Julio are we? Not with Soroka/Fried/Touki/Wright all available?

I don't know what its going to take to finally give Fried a job. He could easily be a 2 win guy with upside for much more (4).

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Think Oakland could be in play as a Julion destination.

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Originally Posted by jpx7

Think Oakland could be in play as a Julion destination.

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Yeah - I mean he is useful for a team that is searching for a fifth starter so hopefully what you say comes to pass.

I'm just excited to see Folty/Gausman/Newk/Touki/Fried

Why should the Braves be hesitant about that with Soroka/Gohara/Wright/Weigel/Anderson real close in the AAA rotation?

Teheran honestly is hurting the team by not letting one of our more talented guys get a shot now.

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Originally Posted by mfree80

Welcome back thethe. You should remember that this type of optimism is not well received by some here! :elefant:

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People choose to perceive life in many ways. I don't begrudge someone for holding these types of counter views.

Thanks mfree!

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Originally Posted by thethe

We aren't really going to pitch Julio are we? Not with Soroka/Fried/Touki/Wright all available?

I don't know what its going to take to finally give Fried a job. He could easily be a 2 win guy with upside for much more (4).

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If Fried can stay healthy and keep his K rate up (since it seems his BB Rate won't drop enough) He should be a solid starter.But staying healthy is a big if

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Originally Posted by zitothebrave

If Fried can stay healthy and keep his K rate up (since it seems his BB Rate won't drop enough) He should be a solid starter.But staying healthy is a big if

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I still want to see what Fried can do as a major league starter. Give him half a season (15 starts) to show what he's got. If it doesn't work out the pen beckons.

Thethe was wrong before. I’ve been wring too.

The point he made about Julio is valid, he shouldn’t pitch for us. We have 5 options who can provide the same value for a minimum salary with more upside. Julio is our third highest paid player.

With teams like the pads and Oakland going for it there should be a match out there.

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Originally Posted by mfree80

Welcome back thethe. You should remember that this type of optimism is not well received by some here! :elefant:

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I just think it’s funny the one thing he found to be pessimistic about was Folty in his breakout, all star year.

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Originally Posted by Southcack77

I just think it’s funny the one thing he found to be pessimistic about was Folty in his breakout, all star year.

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Maybe he will explain to us once again how Newk has better control in the zone than Folty despite his higher BB/9....and how Newk is the better pitcher.

Fried and Gohora will likely both be bullpen peices until Fried can prove to stay healthy (blisters), and Gohora ( health and stamina). Wilson (who I love), Wright and Weigel should carve people up once they get used to the role.

Obviously all these guys probably won’t be here, but any of those guys would be great bullpen peices AND any could also start.

Soroka and Touki will be given the most rotation looks.

I really would like to see more starts from the other guys and I would move Newk before some of the others...I doubt it happens.

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

Maybe he will explain to us once again how Newk has better control in the zone than Folty despite his higher BB/9....and how Newk is the better pitcher.

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LMAO

I like Thethe but he jump the shark on this one.

Folty is our ACE but he is not quite there yet but still young, maybe he figure it out.

We have legitimately 10 starters on this team that can start on any team in the Majors (even as a 5), but you need to give the young one's a chance. I think we should do it.

These guys CAN be really really good, but they need chances just like Smoltz, Avery, Glavine, Millwood, even Nied and McMurtry was not bad pitchers, just a bad time, as we know the Mad Dog was just epic. I might have missed a couple in the early 90's like Neagle but he was with another team before he came here.

It’s sad...there just isn’t enough playing time for all of them. They all pretty much deserve it.

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Originally Posted by nsacpi

The starting point is the 48 wins that define a team of replacement level players. Let's add from there

Bench and pen: 5 wins (53 running total)

Catcher: 2 wins (55)

First: 5 wins (60)

Second: 4 wins (64)

Short: 2 wins (66)

Third: 4 wins (70)

Left: 5 wins (75)

Center: 3 wins (78)

Right: 2 wins (80)

Folty: 4 wins (84)

Gausman: 3 wins (87)

Newcomb: 2 wins (89)

Teheran: 1 win (90)

Fifth starter: 1 win (91)

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Even if we adjust the projection in right down a win, this is still a solid contending team. I know my 90 win projection is a bit higher than the consensus, but I think consensus is not giving enough weight to what younger players like Acuna, Albies, and Folty did last year. This is a very solid contending team and AA will have the chips to make some moves either later this off-season or mid-season.

The projection systems have Acuna, Albies and Folty regressing relative to 2018. I think as a group they will give us more. Pozi Braves assemble!!

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Originally Posted by nsacpi

Even if we adjust the projection in right down a win, this is still a solid contending team. I know my 90 win projection is a bit higher than the consensus, but I think consensus is not giving enough weight to what younger players like Acuna, Albies, and Folty did last year. This is a very solid contending team and AA will have the chips to make some moves either later this off-season or mid-season.

The projection systems have Acuna, Albies and Folty regressing relative to 2018. I think as a group they will give us more. Pozi Braves assemble!!

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Which is why we need another difference maker for insurance. Markakis ain't it.

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Originally Posted by thethe

We aren't really going to pitch Julio are we? Not with Soroka/Fried/Touki/Wright all available?

I don't know what its going to take to finally give Fried a job. He could easily be a 2 win guy with upside for much more (4).

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I actually agree with the first part of this. I don't know how hard we've been shopping Julio, but I don't see any reason for him to be a Brave in 2019. The money he is owed could be enormous in our pursuit of more substantial upgrades and we have more than enough pitching to replace his production.

There has to be some team in baseball that'd be willing to take Julio on.

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Originally Posted by BeanieAntics

I actually agree with the first part of this. I don't know how hard we've been shopping Julio, but I don't see any reason for him to be a Brave in 2019. The money he is owed could be enormous in our pursuit of more substantial upgrades and we have more than enough pitching to replace his production.

There has to be some team in baseball that'd be willing to take Julio on.

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We are going to take it easy on Gohara and Soroka at the start of the season. Ease them in for a month or two in AAA to limit innings and stressful late inning effort. I'm good with Julion being around to accommodate that sort of scenario. By late May/early June we will make adjustments to the rotation based on who is throwing best.

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Originally Posted by nsacpi

Even if we adjust the projection in right down a win, this is still a solid contending team. I know my 90 win projection is a bit higher than the consensus, but I think consensus is not giving enough weight to what younger players like Acuna, Albies, and Folty did last year. This is a very solid contending team and AA will have the chips to make some moves either later this off-season or mid-season.

The projection systems have Acuna, Albies and Folty regressing relative to 2018. I think as a group they will give us more. Pozi Braves assemble!!

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FG has the following projections (guessing for Markakis/Duvall in LF), keep in mind the totals for each position include bench contributions at those positions:

C (Flowers/Mac) - 3.5 wins (add ~1 win for framing)
1B (Freeman/Duvall) - 4.4
2B (Albies/Camargo) - 3.6
SS (Swanson/Camargo) - 2.1
3B (JD/Camargo) - 4.5
LF (Markakis/Duvall) - 1.4
CF (Inciarte/Acuna) - 2.7
RF (Acuna/Duvall) - 3.0
DH (Camargo/Riley/Flowers) - 0.5

SP1 (Folty) - 2.7
SP2 (Newk) - 1.7
SP3 (Gausman) - 2.1
SP4 (Teheran) - 0.6
SP5 (Touki/Soroka/Fried/Others) - 2.1

BP (Viz/Minter/O'Day/Others) - 2.4

Total - 37.3 + 48 = 85.3 wins.

While I'll easily take the over on Acuna's projection, I don't disagree with much of that.

I see the Braves as an ~86 win team as currently constructed, with upside for more if the young pitchers like Soroka, Touki and Wright make improvements and push guys like Teheran and Newk out of the rotation.

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

FG has the following projections (guessing for Markakis/Duvall in LF), keep in mind the totals for each position include bench contributions at those positions:

C (Flowers/Mac) - 3.5 wins (add ~1 win for framing)
1B (Freeman/Duvall) - 4.4
2B (Albies/Camargo) - 3.6
SS (Swanson/Camargo) - 2.1
3B (JD/Camargo) - 4.5
LF (Markakis/Duvall) - 1.4
CF (Inciarte/Acuna) - 2.7
RF (Acuna/Duvall) - 3.0
DH (Camargo/Riley/Flowers) - 0.5

SP1 (Folty) - 2.7
SP2 (Newk) - 1.7
SP3 (Gausman) - 2.1
SP4 (Teheran) - 0.6
SP5 (Touki/Soroka/Fried/Others) - 2.1

BP (Viz/Minter/O'Day/Others) - 2.4

Total - 37.3 + 48 = 85.3 wins.

While I'll easily take the over on Acuna's projection, I don't disagree with much of that.

I see the Braves as an ~86 win team as currently constructed, with upside for more if the young pitchers like Soroka, Touki and Wright make improvements and push guys like Teheran and Newk out of the rotation.

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In other words not good enough to really win anything, not bad enough to blow it up and start over. Pittsburgh

Projecting for 85-90 wins is about the best a team with a $120m payroll can expect consistently.

That puts a team squarely in contention every single year and maximizes attendance/revenue.

Wanting more than that is unrealistic.