Yandy Diaz for 3B

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11-03-2017, 01:41 PM
Enscheff

Yandy Diaz for 3B

The Indians have Kipnis and Ramirez to cover 2B and 3B next year. They have Mejia in the AFL primed to take over at 3B soon.

They also have a guy named Yandy Diaz, a guy with 6 years of control remaining. Yandy Diaz is 26 and just posted an OPS of .679. He's old and not that good, so why Yandy Diaz for 3B?

He is a premier defender at 3B. He had an 11.7% BB rate in 2017, and has never had a professional season where he walked less than 11% of the time. He had a 19.6% K rate in 2017, and has consistently had a 14%-16% K rate in the upper minors.

His issue is one of swing path. A swing path that resulted in just 18.9% fly balls in 2017, which placed him #390 out of 391 guys that accumulated 150+ PAs in 2017. The guys next to him on that list are Ben Revere and Dee Gordon.

The thing is, Diaz doesn't hit the ball like Revere or Gordon. In 2017, 365 guys hit 30+ line drives. Diaz' exit velocity on line drives is 94.4 MPH and ranks #111 on that list. The only Brave who hit harder line drives in 2017 was Tyler Flowers (95.7 MPH). He hit the ball harder than Kemp (94.1), MAdams (94.1) and Freeman (93.3).

I would like to see the Braves acquire Diaz, add loft to his swing, and see if they can create the next Justin Turner. These are the types of players non-contenders should be trying to find rather than giving Adonis Garcia 1000 PAs.
11-03-2017, 05:32 PM
blueagleace1

I totally agree Enscheff... I think another option that is blocked by his current team is Colin Moran.
11-03-2017, 05:41 PM
nsacpi

Yandy also had a tremendous season in AAA. .914 OPS in 374 PAs. That aint chopped liver. And his 2016 numbers in AAA were very good too.

And that was in the IL not the PCL. The distinction matters.
11-03-2017, 05:47 PM
nsacpi

The decision to pick up the option on Michael Brantley probably means they won't make a run at re-signing Santana. A cheaper option to play first (at least against righties) like Matt Adams might have some appeal to them. I'm assuming they wouldn't want to play Encarnacion at first on the full-time basis.
11-03-2017, 05:54 PM
BeanieAntics

Quote:

Originally Posted by blueagleace1

I totally agree Enscheff... I think another option that is blocked by his current team is Colin Moran.

I would actually prefer JD Davis if we went to the Astros
11-03-2017, 07:30 PM
50PoundHead

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enscheff

The Indians have Kipnis and Ramirez to cover 2B and 3B next year. They have Mejia in the AFL primed to take over at 3B soon.

They also have a guy named Yandy Diaz, a guy with 6 years of control remaining. Yandy Diaz is 26 and just posted an OPS of .679. He's old and not that good, so why Yandy Diaz for 3B?

He is a premier defender at 3B. He had an 11.7% BB rate in 2017, and has never had a professional season where he walked less than 11% of the time. He had a 19.6% K rate in 2017, and has consistently had a 14%-16% K rate in the upper minors.

His issue is one of swing path. A swing path that resulted in just 18.9% fly balls in 2017, which placed him #390 out of 391 guys that accumulated 150+ PAs in 2017. The guys next to him on that list are Ben Revere and Dee Gordon.

The thing is, Diaz doesn't hit the ball like Revere or Gordon. In 2017, 365 guys hit 30+ line drives. Diaz' exit velocity on line drives is 94.4 MPH and ranks #111 on that list. The only Brave who hit harder line drives in 2017 was Tyler Flowers (95.7 MPH). He hit the ball harder than Kemp (94.1), MAdams (94.1) and Freeman (93.3).

I would like to see the Braves acquire Diaz, add loft to his swing, and see if they can create the next Justin Turner. These are the types of players non-contenders should be trying to find rather than giving Adonis Garcia 1000 PAs.

I would rather give you 1000 PAs instead of giving Adonis another one.

I wonder what the Astros' plans are for Davis. He's probably ahead of Moran, but my guess is Correa may be the future 3B in Houston. Wonder if they will be shopping for a better fielding SS and make the move with Correa sooner rather than later. The Astros will be looking for relief pitching, but I don't know if we have anything that would interest them in terms of a trade. They may go the FA route instead.
11-03-2017, 09:08 PM
NYCBrave

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enscheff

The Indians have Kipnis and Ramirez to cover 2B and 3B next year. They have Mejia in the AFL primed to take over at 3B soon.

They also have a guy named Yandy Diaz, a guy with 6 years of control remaining. Yandy Diaz is 26 and just posted an OPS of .679. He's old and not that good, so why Yandy Diaz for 3B?

He is a premier defender at 3B. He had an 11.7% BB rate in 2017, and has never had a professional season where he walked less than 11% of the time. He had a 19.6% K rate in 2017, and has consistently had a 14%-16% K rate in the upper minors.

His issue is one of swing path. A swing path that resulted in just 18.9% fly balls in 2017, which placed him #390 out of 391 guys that accumulated 150+ PAs in 2017. The guys next to him on that list are Ben Revere and Dee Gordon.

The thing is, Diaz doesn't hit the ball like Revere or Gordon. In 2017, 365 guys hit 30+ line drives. Diaz' exit velocity on line drives is 94.4 MPH and ranks #111 on that list. The only Brave who hit harder line drives in 2017 was Tyler Flowers (95.7 MPH). He hit the ball harder than Kemp (94.1), MAdams (94.1) and Freeman (93.3).

I would like to see the Braves acquire Diaz, add loft to his swing, and see if they can create the next Justin Turner. These are the types of players non-contenders should be trying to find rather than giving Adonis Garcia 1000 PAs.

Good call. He's someone I've read about this past season, and has good peripherals and seems to be one adjustment away from breaking out. Wonder what the cost would be.
11-04-2017, 06:14 AM
thethe

What are the projections on a guy like this. What is the methodology on pricing him?
11-04-2017, 08:28 AM
nsacpi

Quote:

Originally Posted by thethe

What are the projections on a guy like this. What is the methodology on pricing him?

My guess is the Indians would value him as a 1.5 win player the next three years (his ages 27-29 seasons) and 1 win over the three remaining years of contractual control (ages 30-32). Expected surplus value over that time would be about 6 wins.

That would be their asking price. They might settle for something worth 4-5 wins. I think they would do it if we offered Matt Adams and one of Toussaint/Wentz/Wilson.

Btw I think Camargo on the trade market would be worth a bit more than Yandy. Mostly because he is 3 years younger.
11-04-2017, 09:32 AM
BeanieAntics

I was actually looking at a couple of mid level A's prospects the other day and I REALLY like the idea of acquiring someone like Sheldon Neuse or Yairo Munoz. Especially Neuse. Solid fielder with a plus arm, above average hit tool, and average power. I would take that all day

Also, the A's seemingly have 3rd base locked up for a while now with Matt Chapman who had a very successful rookie campaign, so someone like Neuse could also be available for the right price.
11-04-2017, 11:42 AM
Enscheff

Quote:

Originally Posted by thethe

What are the projections on a guy like this. What is the methodology on pricing him?

Someone like Yandy Diaz is a project with a high probability that altering his swing leads to K rates that won't play at the MLB level. The Braves should only acquire projects like this if they are basically given away.

The Dodgers signed Justin Turner to a minor league deal.
11-04-2017, 01:36 PM
buck75

Austin Riley might be ready by July 1. I don’t see any reason to trade for a 3B unless Riley crashes (and I don’t think he will).
11-05-2017, 12:13 AM
Bravesfannchar

Another great post.

Very interesting.
11-05-2017, 01:51 AM
ixiXSolidXixi

Any player like Yandy Diaz is great but the problem that we have is that right now we have 3 third base players. Adonis Garcia, Rio Ruiz and Johan Camargo. Plus Austin Riley coming soon. Not enough time to play for all thise players.
11-05-2017, 06:23 AM
BeanieAntics

Quote:

Originally Posted by ixiXSolidXixi

Any player like Yandy Diaz is great but the problem that we have is that right now we have 3 third base players. Adonis Garcia, Rio Ruiz and Johan Camargo. Plus Austin Riley coming soon. Not enough time to play for all thise players.

This assumes all three of those guys are capable of providing a lot of value to us at 3rd. Adonis is awful, Ruiz is awful, and Camargo is better suited for a super utility role. We have the ability to fill 3rd base internally this year, to a debatable degree of effectiveness, but I think we are a long way from being able to claim we have a log jam over there
11-06-2017, 11:45 AM
JohnAdcox

Quote:

Originally Posted by ixiXSolidXixi

Any player like Yandy Diaz is great but the problem that we have is that right now we have 3 third base players. Adonis Garcia, Rio Ruiz and Johan Camargo. Plus Austin Riley coming soon. Not enough time to play for all thise players.

Not with you there, pal. We have one terrific utility player and Riley coming soon.
11-06-2017, 05:40 PM
biggentleben

Those who are ripping on Ruiz should take a look at his mlbfarm.com page. This is the first season in the past 3 that he has any purple beyond the fence of left field, however, he ALWAYS has a red hot spot in left field. For some reason, he believes he needs to go opposite field all the time at the plate, but when he simply attacks the ball and pulls it, he has tremendous power. This year, I believe the ratio is 13 HR to right field and 4 to left field for the most I've ever seen to left for Ruiz. Why no one has ever pulled him aside and told him to forego his spraying the ball everywhere, and attack the ball by pulling it. I think he's got as good or better a chance to be a power-hitting, solid-defense 3B as Yandy does in making a swing change and being a legit offensive threat at 3B, having seen dozens of games of both...
11-06-2017, 05:59 PM
Enscheff

Quote:

Originally Posted by biggentleben

Those who are ripping on Ruiz should take a look at his mlbfarm.com page. This is the first season in the past 3 that he has any purple beyond the fence of left field, however, he ALWAYS has a red hot spot in left field. For some reason, he believes he needs to go opposite field all the time at the plate, but when he simply attacks the ball and pulls it, he has tremendous power. This year, I believe the ratio is 13 HR to right field and 4 to left field for the most I've ever seen to left for Ruiz. Why no one has ever pulled him aside and told him to forego his spraying the ball everywhere, and attack the ball by pulling it. I think he's got as good or better a chance to be a power-hitting, solid-defense 3B as Yandy does in making a swing change and being a legit offensive threat at 3B, having seen dozens of games of both...

Ruiz hit 22 line drives last year with an average exit velocity of 96.3 MPH. That is the highest of any Braves with 20+ line drives.

Problem is he isn't spraying the ball everywhere at the MLB level. His 22% oppo rate would put him #100 out of 144 qualified hitters.

Ruiz hits the ball hard, and he pulls it plenty, but he only hits 30% fly balls at the MLB level (average is 35%). He would probably also benefit from hitting more fly balls. Problem with that is he already Ks ~25% of time, so altering his swing for more loft will likely increase the K rate into the unplayable range.
11-06-2017, 06:05 PM
biggentleben

That's just it. I think he attempted to change it on the fly at the big league level this year. It was a notable difference in his swing from what I'd seen all year in Gwinnett. It's as if he knows to get notice at the big league level, he should hit DINGERZZ, but he doesn't do the work to really work out the full pull profile before getting to the big league level and trying to make an impression by pulling out home runs, then returning to his more "natural" swing at Gwinnett. I think if he were to do some changing, he could have some big success.