Building via Pitching - Don't trade Tehran
I have been watching the Braves for many many years and although it has been up and down, I can see exactly what they are trying to do with the pitching staff and I have to say I love it. Like Bill, I think that a pitching first approach is still the best way to build a consistent winner in the mlb. What I don't agree with is the timeline necessary to build a winner drives the necessity to trade pitching talent. People here really want to trade JT for batting at his peak (maybe) if we get a haul so that we can move the rebuild along. I think the rebuild is necessitated on pitching, not hitting.
Let me explain:
If you want to build a pitching staff that can win, win big, and win consistently, then what you need is 3 1/2 type pitchers. That is hard to find but the teams that do win consistently (look 90's Braves, 2000's Giants, Arizona to a lesser degree with Schilling/Johnson). I think that is what Coppy is trying to do with the talent he is assembling. It just takes a while. His goal should be if it is not, is build a staff with 3 1/2 type guys.
Let me pause for a second. I am not a scout. I don't understand the difference between #1 and ace. I don't understand the differences between #2 and #2/#3. I am a simple guy. I see pitchers as top of the rotation and bottom of the rotation. Guys who have a chance to win any game you send them out and guys who can win if the team can score consistently. Let me give the old timers an example. Maddox, Glavine, Smoltz were top of the rotation guys (I call 1/2 guys) even though on here you would argue that they are not ace or #1 guys. I see Avery, Smith, Millwood, Leighbrant as back of the rotation guys.
Remember the goal: Get 3- 1/2 guys. Thus when you think you want to compete (which I think is middle of 2017), you need a minimum of 2 but preferably 3 of these guys.
The challenge is even a #1/2 pitcher needs 2-3 years in the majors to be depended on as a #1/2 guy.
Now to the current Braves:
I believe as this year wraps up the Braves will have identified they have 2 - #1/2 guys (Tehran / Foltz). Notice it has taken 2 years for Foltz to become a #1/2 guy. It almost always does so you can't count them until they become it. Plan on two years in. I do love that we have a handful of back of the rotation guys that can fill out a rotation, but my goal is to get 3 - 1/2 guys (2 at a minimum). So guys like Wisler, Gant, Jenkins, Blair, etc are great, but become filler (or trade bait) once I get my 3 top guys.
So why do I say this? It is because there are three steps left to this pitching rebuild in my mind. 1) Identify who are potential #1/2 guys. 2) work them into the rotation (develop them). 3) Trade off the other parts once they are not needed (for bats, prospects, future #1/2 guys).
That's it. Don't trade away Tehran until you have your other 3 - 1/2 guys. You have 1 now (maybe). You can't win with just 1. Your next is likely not on the roster yet (and it takes 2 years once they get there).
Conclusion:
The timeline for us to be competitive starts in 2017 based on pitching, but really gets set in stone when we find the 3rd #1/2 pitcher. Who is it? Newcome, Sims, Allard, Touki, Fried, Wentz, Anderson, Free agent? I don't know. Identify who it could be and everyone else is used for what they are (filler, stop gaps, trade bait).
Leverage pitching and get a couple bats
I am not so sure that we are really that far away from competing (not yet winning, but competing).
I think 2017 our pitching staff has the 2 TOR guys (Tehran & Folty) with 3 others (Wisler, Jenkins, Gant, Perez). I really think mid season next year we bring up Newcome and he tries to start his 2 year progression to being a TOR guy. Maybe Wisler puts it together by next year after 2 years too.
We are set at 1B, 2B, SS (assuming we live with growing pains of Albies and Swanson), CF (assuming either Inciarte or Mallex settle in). That leaves a lot of possible holes we could fill. I think the braves are 2 bats away from competing offensively. It can come from 2 of the following C, 3B, corner OF. How we get those is any bodies guess. I would hope we could get one via trade and one via FA.
One guy I would love to pursue is Jake Lamb. I have no idea why Arizona would give him up but he could be our 3B until Maitan is ready. They have moved into sell mode this trade deadline, so maybe a Sims, Rio, Cabrera package would do it. They need pitching badly.
I would also like Lucroy. Maybe a similar package would get him (Inciarte, Jenkins, Blair).
If we filled our C and 3B postions with quality young guys, we would become competitive in a hurry. Kind of like the 91 Braves.