Originally Posted by
Enscheff
Great, let's check out Freeman's batted ball profile, and try to see how he has sustained that .343 BABIP.
LD/GB/FB: 27/37/36
Pull/Center/Opp: 39/31/30
Now compare that to a similar hitter, Anthony Rizzo, who has a .286 career BABIP.
LD/GB/FB: 21/39/40
Pull/Center/Oppo: 43/35/22
Rizzo's BABIP is 57 points below Freeman's. Why?
About 40 of those points can be attributed to his inferior LD rate. The rest due to the fact he hits more FBs and pull the ball more often than Freeman. None of this is a mystery. It is all well understood.
Now eyeballing Acuna this year in AAA.
LD/GB/FB: 24/44/32
Pull/Center/Oppo: 40/23/36
Whose batted ball profile does that more closely resemble? I'd say it falls right between Rizzo and Freeman, so I'd say his expected BABIP would be right between Freeman's .343 and Rizzo's .286.
Know what the average of those 2 values is? .315
Seems like a good approximation of what Acuna's MLB BABIP is likely to be, and pretty much what I've been citing the entire time this discussion has gone on.