Debbie Downer maybe but I just don't see the optimism

Didn't want to put this in the ST thread because some baseball is better than no baseball, however, I just can't get excited about the 2018 Braves.

Sure you can put the TheThe spin on and look on the bright side. More power to those who can do that.

I guess I'm just more critical.

But the team in 2018 isn't markedly better than the 2017 team was and arguably a significant amount worse.

First, look at the offense. The hope is that Albies, Swanson, Camargo and eventually Acuna will begin to grow up and be big contributors on the offensive side. They better. Because the departure of Phillips, Kemp and MAdams, means they lose 50 HR and 70 2B, all guys with an OPS of at least .752. Add in the expected decline of Markakis and the catching platoon and, even with a full season of Freeman, the offense looks to be no better than it was last year and possibly considerably worse. The talent flow was all one way from an offense standpoint in the offseason.

The defense almost certainly will be better. Hopefully Swanson will start justifying his rep. Albies will likely be as good or better than an aging Phillips. The Camargo/Ruiz platoon likely can't be any worse than Garcia. Freddie and Inciarte will likely be themselves. Catching will probably take a step back and RF almost certainly will. LAdams, as bad as he is in LF, will be better defensively than Kemp but will still likely be bad until Acuna can arrive.

The SP is almost entirely relying on the blossoming of the young kids. Bottom line, they can't struggle but probably will.

The addition of McCarthy and Kazmir likely will be a net minus when compared with the presence of 2017 Dickey and Garcia. You have to hope that Kazmir isn't Colon. Let's hope Teheran bounces back but if he FB continues to decline...

In the pen, it looks to me that untried youth is replacing aging veterans. But, outside of Minter, the hope for a real difference maker looks pretty bleak.

The bench looks like a horrid wasteland of journeymen never-was guys who aren't particularly good at anything but make up for it by being bad offensive players.

And, finally, the minor leagues. Acuna will certainly arrive soon and be a help. Riley, Jackson and Demeritte all are the closest and all likely need at least another year. There's more pitching closer BUT if the offense is as bad as it looks like it will be you have to ask yourself is it worthwhile to burn service time.

Just trying to keep it real...

The optimism is going to see how our young position players develop. It's a punt year so I'm not expecting the team to win much.

Yeah I don't really care if we win 70 games or win 80 games, as long as we see the young players develop and show some future potential. I fully expect us to be non-competitive this season so it doesn't bother me if we look unproven. The talent is obviously there and this season should be used to evaluate that talent

And with that said I see likely overall improvement at 3B, SS, and 2B this year. Likely RF as well once Acuna is up. The only position I see significant regression at is catcher.

This year will be super fun as far as watching how our players progress. Acuna will make it a ton more exciting alone. This is the year that means so much bc it will set up our future moving forward. We’ll know all we need to know about Riley and if he’s the answer at 3b and what we really have in Wright, Soroka, Allard, Touki, and Anderson among others. It’ll let AA know what he needs to do in the offseason to make us a playoff contender for next year and the next 5 after that.

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Originally Posted by thewupk

And with that said I see likely overall improvement at 3B, SS, and 2B this year. Likely RF as well once Acuna is up. The only position I see significant regression at is catcher.

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Starting pitching will improve as well considering we had so much suck from Colon.

Thematically, 2018 versus 2017 is a case of unproven youth replacing aging veterans. From that it does not necessarily follow that the W-L will improve.

But looking at a position by position comparison:

Catcher--same personnel but will likely get less in 2018

First--Freddie missed time in 2017, so likely we will get more in 2018

2nd--Albies > Phillips

SS--Same player but will probably get more in 2018

3rd--was very poor in 2017...will probably get more in 2018

LF--Acuna > Kemp

CF--push

RF--push

So likely get more at five positions, less at one

Now to the pitching:

Teheran--probably more in 2018

Folty--probably more in 2018

Newcomb--probably more than from Newcomb/Colon in 2017

Gohara--push with Garcia

McCarthy--push with Dickey

Pen--I'm mildly optimistic, but lets say a push

So improvement at three starting pitching spots.

Bottom line. Likely to improve

Bottom bottom line: 80 win team even without fantasy signing of Moose to play third.

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Originally Posted by thethe

Starting pitching will improve as well considering we had so much suck from Colon.

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Yeah he was bad

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Originally Posted by nsacpi

Thematically, 2018 versus 2017 is a case of untried youth replacing aging veterans. From that it does not necessarily follow that the W-L will improve.

But looking at a position by position comparison:

Catcher--same personnel but will likely get less in 2018

First--Freddie missed time in 2017, so likely we will get more in 2018

2nd--Albies > Phillips

SS--Same player but will probably get more in 2018

3rd--was very poor in 2017...will probably get more in 2018

LF--Acuna > Kemp

CF--push

RF--push

So likely get more at five positions, less at one

Now to the pitching:

Teheran--probably more in 2018

Folty--probably more in 2018

Newcomb--probably more than from Newcomb/Colon in 2017

Gohara--push with Garcia

McCarthy--push with Dickey

Pen--I'm mildly optimistic, but lets say a push

So improvement a three starting pitching spots.

Bottom line. Likely to improve

Bottom bottom line: 80 win team even with fantasy signing of Moose to play third.

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Agree with all of this aside from Gohara vs. Garcia. I think Gohara is ready to produce more than that.

I think we are mid 80's this year depending on if Freeman can be healthy for a whole season.

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Originally Posted by thethe

Agree with all of this aside from Gohara vs. Garcia. I think Gohara is ready to produce more than that.

I think we are mid 80's this year depending on if Freeman can be healthy for a whole season.

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A 10+ win swing is hard to see unless the young kids all step up.

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Originally Posted by thewupk

A 10+ win swing is hard to see unless the young kids all step up.

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I'd prefer to look at it by position. When you say 10+ win on the whole I agree it seems hard. Then you look into the details:

C - Push (maybe -.5)
1B - More +.5 (Due to the hope he plays more)
2B - More +2 (Yes I'm rather bullish on Albies)
SS - More +1 (Can he be that bad again?)
3B - More +1.5 (We all konw how I feel about Camargo)
RF - More +1.5 (Acuna to take over early)
CF - Less -.5 (I have a feeling we are going to see some decline in Ender)
RF - More .5 (Defense and Markakis moving over)

Thats six more wins from position players

Teheran + .5
Folty +.5
Newc +1
Gohara +2
McCarthy +1

Bullpen - Push only because its impossible to project this
Bench - Push for same reason as bullpen

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Originally Posted by thewupk

A 10+ win swing is hard to see unless the young kids all step up.

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you forgot thethethe premium...that's worth...a lot!

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Originally Posted by nsacpi

you forgot thethethe premium...that's worth...a lot!

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So many "the's"

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Originally Posted by thethe

So many "the's"

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its all gonna come together in a yuge way...Braves all the way!

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Originally Posted by thethe

I'd prefer to look at it by position. When you say 10+ win on the whole I agree it seems hard. Then you look into the details:

C - Push (maybe -.5)
1B - More +.5 (Due to the hope he plays more)
2B - More +2 (Yes I'm rather bullish on Albies)
SS - More +1 (Can he be that bad again?)
3B - More +1.5 (We all konw how I feel about Camargo)
RF - More +1.5 (Acuna to take over early)
CF - Less -.5 (I have a feeling we are going to see some decline in Ender)
RF - More .5 (Defense and Markakis moving over)

Thats six more wins from position players

Teheran + .5
Folty +.5
Newc +1
Gohara +2
McCarthy +1

Bullpen - Push only because its impossible to project this
Bench - Push for same reason as bullpen

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I think expecting an increase at all position players and starters but 2 is asking a little much. But that would qualify as the young players stepping up.

How the hell can HH not be optimistic about this season. If we win he can be a fan. If we suck he can continue to post FF trade ideas. Win freaking win for him.

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Originally Posted by thewupk

I think expecting an increase at all position players and starters but 2 is asking a little much. But that would qualify as the young players stepping up.

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You're probably right but they are all on the right side of 27 to show improvement and we had some real awful guys in a lot of these positions last year so an improvement wouldn't be a huge shock IMO.

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Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt

How the hell can HH not be optimistic about this season.

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cuz there is a fixed amount of optimism in the world and thethe got more than his share

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Originally Posted by thethe

I'd prefer to look at it by position. When you say 10+ win on the whole I agree it seems hard. Then you look into the details:

C - Push (maybe -.5)
1B - More +.5 (Due to the hope he plays more)
2B - More +2 (Yes I'm rather bullish on Albies)
SS - More +1 (Can he be that bad again?)
3B - More +1.5 (We all konw how I feel about Camargo)
RF - More +1.5 (Acuna to take over early)
CF - Less -.5 (I have a feeling we are going to see some decline in Ender)
RF - More .5 (Defense and Markakis moving over)

Thats six more wins from position players

Teheran + .5
Folty +.5
Newc +1
Gohara +2
McCarthy +1

Bullpen - Push only because its impossible to project this
Bench - Push for same reason as bullpen

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there are a couple areas I would flag as overoptimistic...the decline at catcher could be larger...we got incredible production from Flowers/Suzuki last year...also Gohara/McCarthy being +3 over Garcia/Dickey looks a bit much

Are any projections showing the Braves as likely to be worse?

Still, I don't expect a whole lot from them as things stand now. I would predict another rebuilding year with hopefully some sell offs near the deadline of veterans.

Which is fine with me.