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Don't expect a start that gives false hope this year like last.
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Nats
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@Nats
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Dodgers
Mets
Red Sox
@red sox
@cubs
Don't expect a start that gives false hope this year like last.
25 and 0, baby.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
I really hate to be this way, but it's probably for the best. Better to get any notion of competing out of the way early so the best path to an effective and long lasting rebuild can continue to be followed.
Really need to max the return for Inciarte and Teheran asap, before the season starts is possible. Then need Freeman to have a big first half and have several contenders like Houston, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, etc. find themselves in dire need of a LH 1B at the break and need the Braves to be in position to be able to pull the trigger.
I realize that you can't do a rebuild halfway, but literally disbanding the team for the sake of disbanding the team seems to me to be a bad idea.Quote:
Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry
meh...I tend to disagree. I think we should be about done with large trades unless someone comes in and blows the doors off. I think we have a really solid foundation, plus if they plan to add big July 2nd that will further solidify the farm, plus a good draft....Quote:
Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry
I just think we need to work on development now. Let this season kinda play out.....maybe the minds change around trade deadline because guys aren't progressing on the farm as expected. who knows.
In my view it's not "disbanding the team for the sake of disbanding the team." It's bringing in as much high end talent that you possibly can so that when your overall team is ready to be good, they all have a chance to get good together AND you have financial flexibility to take on payroll either through FA signings or by trading for the missing piece or two that you need to fill any holes from the outside that can't be filled from within.Quote:
Originally Posted by jimsnores
Now I understand why JS said we won't be competing until the after the All-Star break.
I honestly feel Julio will probably be trade mid season. If he can bounce back, he will bring in an absolute over pay from a contender. However, I don't think they will trade FF for the simple fact that there is no depth behind him. Sure Riley could move to first or we could get an AJ reed type back... But I don't think we would get the over pay like we could with Julio. FF contract is far from as friendly and there will always be the injury question.. even if he stays healthy the first half. Here are the guys I could see being traded and wouldn't be surprised if they were...Quote:
Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry
Julio -- most likely if he pitches well
Nick -- I think 30% chance...I don't think offers will be good enough for him and the FO likes him
AJ -- NO CHANCE
Flowers -- Nope
KJ -- probably if he performs well
JJ -- not sure he will get much in return
Grilli -- most likely.. he will be the closer, so he can build up his stats for a good return..
Aybar -- just don't see a market for him.. but I hope I am wrong. they will try
Ender -- I don't think they trade him.. unless an offer is too good..
Cachin -- 50/50 on him.. maybe
Bud Norris -- not sure he will pitch well enough so no..
Bourn/Swisher -- we will pay the remainder of their salary and dump them to someone for a rookie ball player. (assuming both are on the team still)
Braves have plenty of payroll flexibility. Trading 2 good players who are signed to below market value for many years isn't a good idea.Quote:
Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry
If they have a really bad April where they only win 10 games or something it doesn't change much. Instead of losing 90 games they could lose 95.
I certainly don't advocate making ANY trade for the sake of making a trade. But, if you can make a trade for high end players who will either help right away or in the near future and those players fill multiple holes, then I think you do it.Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaBrave14
Look at Teheran. He's under a good contract. He's a pretty good #2 who pitched like a #3 last year. But he has value. Trading him away would create a short term hole, but the team just spent the last 14 or so months trading for as much high end pitching it could get. If you believe in the effectiveness of those trades and signings, which the FO should or they should be fired, then Teheran is replaceable from within, if not now then within the next year or two.
Look at Inciarte. He's a defense first CF with potential to be an OBP guy who could hit LO and steal some bases but will not hit for power. The Braves currently have M Smith, Albies and possibly Swanson to slot in the top of the lineup with Smith as a possible future option for CF AND you are already paying Bourn to be that guy (even though we know he probably is a black hole offensively and certainly not up to previous standards defensively, what difference does it make for 2016?). Inciarte is NOT signed long term, so assuming he continues to play at previous levels seen in Arizona (not a given), then by the time the team is getting really good so late 2017, or 2018, then he is getting expensive, probably more expensive than his value to the team.
Finally, look at Freeman. He's not the face of the franchise, unless you accept that he has to be because there is no one else. He's a good batsman with some pop who is likely never going to consistently be a top three guy at his position. He's probably 6th or 7th right now. His defense is pretty good. He's signed long term to a contract that, if he keeps producing at historical levels for the term of the contract, will likely be a bargain at the $20++M AAV and the contract is just now beginning to role into the more expensive years. He has recent injury history in a bad place for a power hitter in his wrist (and he wasn't that great of a power hitter for a 1b to start with). The Braves have no obvious internal replacement in the minors so would need to receive a replacement back in any trade, even if it's a low level high quality prospect.
So, let's say the Cubs miss on resigning Fowler. I think the Braves should be all over a trade with them to send them Inciarte and Teheran for SS Javier Baez, RF Jorge Soler and C Wilson Contreras. Baez becomes your starting shortstop which allows you to trade Aybar. Soler becomes your starting RF which allows you to trade Markakis (eat some money if it gets you a better return). And Contreras becomes part of the catching solution in 2017 and beyond.
Then, let's say at the All-Star break, Houston is contending but needs LH power and Freeman is sitting at .285 with 17 HR and no signs of injury issues. And let's say AJ Reed is not viewed as ready at Houston for whatever reason. I could see a Freeman for Reed, OF Kyle Tucker, 3B JD Davis.
You sign one of the FA pitchers still left out there before the season starts (my favorite is Latos) and you go into the season: CF Bourn/M Smith, SS Baez, 1B Freeman, LF Olivera/Swisher/K Johnson, RF Soler, 3B Garcia/Johnson, C AJ/Flowers, 2B Peterson and the rotation takes on Latos but loses Teheran. Does that team win any more games than the team that plays with no more trades? Maybe not short term but it has much more long term potential.
If you could trade Freeman at the All Star Break for the return I have above then Swisher and K Johnson become the primary 1B for the rest of the year (but who cares about 2016 at that point anyway except how it will ultimately help 2017 and beyond.
At some point in 2017 you could see a team in Atlanta: CF M Smith, 2B Albies, SS Swanson, 1B Reed, RF Soler, 3B Baez, LF Olivera, C Contreras: That lineup combined would make much less than Freeman would make in a season which would allow flexibility to add if needed. The rotation could be: Newcomb, Blair, Wisler, Banuelos, Folty with about 5 others pushing for an opportunity all combined making less than what Teheran would make, which would allow you to add here if necessary which probably would happen to add experience.
What you would have in 2017 would be an exciting young team with obvious potential that can grow into a force and has the financial flexibility to add pieces where necessary.
If he's legitimately healthy, I think Freeman has a great year. Same for Teheran, I loved what he did after the break last year.
Folks, remember we started 5-0. If it weren't for injuries Fredi would of had us competing for a wild card spot.
So true.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Don
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