Quote:
Originally Posted by JCarbo76
It's not just metrics. Metrics show what people around baseball see. His range is almost non existent.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JCarbo76
It's not just metrics. Metrics show what people around baseball see. His range is almost non existent.
I understand he's no Brooks Robinson. But he's defense has been OK, even by the stat measurement, and more importantly, even by the stat measurement, has steadily improved over the season, probably due to him playing day in and day out for the first time in his career.Quote:
Originally Posted by gilesfan
And by my eyeball test, having watched probably watched 80% of all the games this season, he's been OK.
Having only watched 20% of the games this year, I have to say that he looks like a statue to me, but when he gets his hands on a ball he doesn't frequently eff it up.
He also has dramatically reduced his K-Rate and improved his LD%. He carried a high BABIP in 2010 as well. Also, can you link me to the Batted Ball speed? I looked all over for it and only found the HR numbers.Quote:
Originally Posted by gilesfan
I think there is a happy middle ground here because 1. I'm not saying Johnson is a peak .330 hitter, I do think there is some luck in his AVG this year. 2. I think Johnson can be a .300 hitter for 2-3 more years, depending on when he loses bat speed. When he loses it, it's pretty much over for him. For that window he is likely to hit in the .290 to .310 range.
Yes, he dropped his K-rate and increased line drive rate. There are many players with outlying line drive ratios for a year or 2. The batted ball speed was in the link you posted.Quote:
Originally Posted by CJC
Johnson is also hitting more groundballs than he has in the pst. And somehow hitting .277 on them when league average is around .240. But, that's not even the big one. Johnson has decreased his flyball rate, but is somehow hitting .269 on flyballs.
The problem with Johnson is that even if he becomes a .300 hitter, he may only be a 1-2 WAR player bc of his lack of other skills. If he hits lower, he's terrible.
It's not improvement. Ladidabip says that from birth to retirement, players do not improve. Therefore, taking his finkleheimer percentage into account, clearly, Chris Johnson's line drive percentage is an outlier, no more.Quote:
Originally Posted by gilesfan
Just don't cry if CJ hits .285 next year.Quote:
Originally Posted by GovClintonTyree
Useful stuff here.Quote:
Originally Posted by GovClintonTyree
Thank you, thank you. I'll be here all week.Quote:
Originally Posted by jpx7
Yeah, not a problem. Same to you if he hits .300 again, confounding the Babiposters once again.Quote:
Originally Posted by gilesfan
Sorry to ask you to chase a goose, but I really don't see anything other that HR SOB. I'd really like to see Johnson's Batted Ball speed over the last 4 years to see if he's hitting the ball harder.Quote:
Originally Posted by gilesfan
Ok, guys... the difference between .285 and .300 over 550 AB is about 8 hits. Negligible difference. It's like none of you have seen Bull Durham.Quote:
Originally Posted by GovClintonTyree
Personally, I think predicting anything from .270-.310 for the dude is reasonable.
That was my point earlier about the small difference.Quote:
Originally Posted by Temo
Even if he hits .300, he may be a sub 2 WAR player.
I have no problem with his defense, it looks like he makes most of the plays hit his way to me. Is he a gold glover? Does he have great range? No but he's not terrible with the glove.
People always say he is not terrible, and I once again ask to what standards?
I judge players against league standards, and by judging him against other 3rd basemen, he is a bad defensive player.
ChapelHillMatt, who do you think is worse than CJ defensively at third base in MLB?
He could be the worst 3rd baseman in the league and still not be that bad. Nobody is saying he should win an award, only that he's not as bad as people make him out to be. You'd think he missed every ball hit his way the way people talk about him on this board. I've seen bad defensive play before. I watched Brooks Conrad at 2nd, Ken Caminiti try and play 1st, and Mike Piazza try and catch. I simply don't believe Johnson is a liability, he doesn't help you or hurt you defensively. I really don't care what his defensive metrics are. I watch him play every night. I form my own opinions based on what I see on a daily basis. If my argument was he's the best defensive player in the league at his position then I would need to compare him to others but since that's not my argument, I don't.
But his defense does hurt the team a little; the primary reason it isn't "a lot", or a real liability, is the extraordinary defensive awesomeness of Andrelton Simmons.Quote:
Originally Posted by ChapelHillMatt
On the other hand: luckily Simmons should be with the Braves for several more seasons, at the very least, so the Braves can likely afford to carry Johnson's glove (so long as he keeps hitting).
Miggy, Zimmerman, MIchael Young.Quote:
Originally Posted by sturg33
Well said!Quote:
Originally Posted by jpx7
to add: Pedro Alvarez, David Freese, PandaQuote:
Originally Posted by zitothebrave