You really can't say that with 100% certainty.
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Sure... if indeed, this is a really serious injury (and let's face it.... you or I have no clue, so let's stop pretending we do)... you want to just throw him a ton of money anyways? Then great... we're out of the money and wasted a pick and can't get any of it back! Cool!
I never claimed it wasn't.... the extensive list was of the hyped/large bonus players... that is a pretty comprehensive list and has a large bust percentage. A poster above mine gave a quite longer list and I didn't think it was necessary to repeat all of it. It just doesn't seem to me that large bonus players have a larger success rate, but I'm not going to waste my time and do the statistics on it.
The two that he didn't sign besides Singer (who was drafted this year obviously), are Beede and Bickford. And neither of those two pitchers have done squat.
Bickford has had a 50 game suspension for banned substances and is a 22 year old still in high A ball. Beede was a barely top 100 prospect going into the 2017 season and has proceeded to get drilled in AAA in the past two seasons with ERAs over 5.5 both years.
It's rather bizarre to try and call AA out for not signing players when both players he didn't sign were busts so far. Singer is obviously a bit different, but it's not exactly fair to blame that one on AA 100% since Singer was always a guy that was likely going to go to Florida.
Oh well. 2 picks in the top 30 picks will be ok.
I’m surprised at the guys turning down first round money even though they are being given discounted offers. Maybe I don’t understand the pay structure like I should but it appears to me if a guy is betting on himself the best bet he could make is to sign a contract and start the clock on his service time. The big money in baseball comes by being a young free agent. If you play college you probably won’t see free agency until you are 30 or 31. A high school signee could reach free agency by 27 or 28.
Here's how I look at it...the Braves had the 4.9 million to offer. If they didn't reach an agreement with the guy they lose this money so the wrist concern must have been much bigger than thought and the Braves believe they are better off with the number 9 pick next year.
This draft was a failure. We essentially traded an 8th pick and a year of development for a 9th pick plus we lost out on the chance to sign Hess. I think that's a failure by any measure. It may work out in the end but this is absolutely not a situation anyone in their right mind would choose.
I will say that saying this draft was a failure doesn't necessarily mean AA and co did anything wrong. Sometimes you can do everything right and it still fall apart. But ultimately, this is not how you want things to go.