Austin Riley

So what is everyone's opinion on this kid? He seems like a REALLY polarizing prospect. I've only seen him play once. I have always had bat speed concerns and it did seem to be a slight issue the one time I saw him (even though he actually had a really good game). I was not high on him at all coming in to the season because of that and defensive concerns, but the reports indicate that his defense has improved a little. I was surprised to see him so high on the SL list, but I'm still not sold on him being a future piece for us.

Anyway, what do you guys think of his upside? Maybe Todd Frazier-like offensively with below average defense? That seems kinda lofty to me. But .270+ with 40 home runs across two years of A-AA ball at 19-20 years old is nothing to sneeze at.

I'm with you still being skeptical. He's had pockets of major success at the end of the season before.

He had a .289 BABIP and 21.8 K% at High A. When he got to Double A, those numbers went to .393 BABIP and 24.6 K%. The K rate going up doesn't exactly scream the massive offensive breakout that his counting stats have people thinking, and I think the inflated BABIP is a large reason for the success in Mississippi. He still could be helpful for us, but I'm going to remain skeptical for a while.

His bat speed is apparently fine and not the concern it seemed to be a year or so ago. And the reports on his defense seem to be decent. My guess is he can be a roughly average defender initially and will tail off to below-average as he hits his mid- to late-20s. And he doesn't run well.

The K concerns are still there, and we'll just have to see what he does going forward. But it appears that his issues there will stem more from pitch recognition and discipline rather than simply poor bat speed, which is positive.

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Originally Posted by smootness

His bat speed is apparently fine and not the concern it seemed to be a year or so ago. And the reports on his defense seem to be decent. My guess is he can be a roughly average defender initially and will tail off to below-average as he hits his mid- to late-20s. And he doesn't run well.

The K concerns are still there, and we'll just have to see what he does going forward. But it appears that his issues there will stem more from pitch recognition and discipline rather than simply poor bat speed, which is positive.

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the bat speed has been controversial among non-braves scouts. There are guys like Klaw that say he struggles with legit velocity.

There did seem to be consensus that he got better on D this year. Always at plus arm. This year it seemed like people went from calling him a 1B to a possible or probable 3B depending on the scout.

The power is real. The K rate is high.

He's still really young. I think the crazy success of other prospects has this false sense that all good prospects dominate and that success is linear. I do not think anyone expects him to be a stud or impact guy. I likely needs a full year at each level at a minimum. If he can play a legit 3B and have in game power then he's got a shot to be a valuable piece.

He will see a lot of legit velocity at AA and we shall see how he does.

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Originally Posted by Russ2dollas

He will see a lot of legit velocity at AA and we shall see how he does.

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Well, so far so good. :)

Riley's LD% jumped in his time at AA. It shouldn't be surprising his BABIP increased as well. Also - Higher BABIP's are not uncommon in the minors so his results to me aren't tainted this year. He had a very good year across both levels. Whether or not he can maintain this type of performance is certainly debateable. I think the one thing we have learned over the last couple of years is that he is a notorious slow starter. Both in 2016-2017 he finished the year on a tear and like Gohara who had an uptick in stuff before the Braves snatched him up I'm much more interested in what a minor leaguer has done recently as opposed to his whole career. This is of course using hte assumption that said player is young for his level.

Hope Riley is going to have a great career.

The concerns with Riley are bat speed and the fact many scouts call him 1B only defensively. If he can't play 3B he is not a MLB regular.

Riley is one of the "sell high" candidates this offseason along with Freeman (breakout BP arm) and Inciarte (declining defense).

Interesting questions from the Baseball America chat about their Southern League rankings.

Greg (Milwaukee, WI): Austin Riley seemed to get much better as he went from low single A to double AA. What happened?

Matt Eddy: Mississippi 3B Austin Riley improved markedly in the second half of 2016, too, when he hit 15 of his 20 homers at Low-A Rome after July 1. I don’t know if I would hang my hat on that performance trend, but SL evaluators gushed about Riley’s power potential and defense at third base, where his work ethic and coachability give him a chance to surpass expectations.

If a prospect has a tendency to be bad on Mondays and Wednesdays and terrific the rest of the week, is it ok to throw out the data on his bad days.

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

The concerns with Riley are bat speed and the fact many scouts call him 1B only defensively. If he can't play 3B he is not a MLB regular.

Riley is one of the "sell high" candidates this offseason along with Freeman (breakout BP arm) and Inciarte (declining defense).

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OH! You said Inciarte! Where's the tar and feathers? Come on guys, who's with me! We've gotta ride this dissenter out of town on a rail....

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Originally Posted by nsacpi

If a prospect has a tendency to be bad on Mondays and Wednesdays and terrific the rest of the week, is it ok to throw out the data on his bad days.

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Thats not whats happening though but its always fun to be cheeky.

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Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry

OH! You said Inciarte! Where's the tar and feathers? Come on guys, who's with me! We've gotta ride this dissenter out of town on a rail....

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Can you two get a room already?

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Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry

OH! You said Inciarte! Where's the tar and feathers? Come on guys, who's with me! We've gotta ride this dissenter out of town on a rail....

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I don't think anyone is trying to drive you off...i disagree with you a lot but appreciate your perspective

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Originally Posted by CJ9

Interesting questions from the Baseball America chat about their Southern League rankings.

Greg (Milwaukee, WI): Austin Riley seemed to get much better as he went from low single A to double AA. What happened?

Matt Eddy: Mississippi 3B Austin Riley improved markedly in the second half of 2016, too, when he hit 15 of his 20 homers at Low-A Rome after July 1. I don’t know if I would hang my hat on that performance trend, but SL evaluators gushed about Riley’s power potential and defense at third base, where his work ethic and coachability give him a chance to surpass expectations.

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I don't know who the heck Matt Eddy is, but he sounds like a dumb pozzy.

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

The concerns with Riley are bat speed and the fact many scouts call him 1B only defensively. If he can't play 3B he is not a MLB regular.

Riley is one of the "sell high" candidates this offseason along with Freeman (breakout BP arm) and Inciarte (declining defense).

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Like the BA quote above, I think the scouts were very positive on his defense this year. Before this year there was a lot of LF/1B talk and I think the changed minds this year.

I think he's got a shot to be a 250-260/300+ depending on BABIP/ 450-480 guy with avg defense at 3B. That's a valuable guy. Maybe a 3 Win player. Prob 2 unless he can get the D or the OBP up.

He certainly would be available for a trade. But I'm not giving him away. If he's the second or third guy in a deal I better be getting a controllable guys who everyone expects to be a 3+ win player.

Still very young and the gets to the power in game. I think his floor is 200/250/450 with slightly below avg D at 3B. That guy isn't a throw away.

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Originally Posted by seanyates

Can you two get a room already?

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Maybe we already got one. With your mom.

See, I can be 12 too....

Going to be pretty interesting to see what they do with Austin next spring. I'm going to guess that they have a long talk with him and explain that they're going to start him in Mississippi again so that he gets everyday ABs. Assuming someone (Moose, Frazier, or whomever) is signed to play 3B for the big club, Rio winds up on a short leash and is in a make-or-break situation in Gwinnett. If Riley gets off to a hot start and Rio doesn't, Ruiz cedes the position at Gwinnett and needs to start shagging fly balls to try to add some positional flexibility.

Was listening to Mike Ferrin and Bowden talk Braves a little while ago. Ferrin is in Arizona, and is the radio voice for the AFL (and does the D-Backs' pre- and postgame shows.

His unbiased take on Riley was that he was impressed. Says he looks the part of a solid, everyday 3B at the MLB level, and believes he's close enough to ready that we could see him late in 2018.

Also mentioned that the obvious move is to at least hold Acuna back for a couple weeks to game his service-time clock, but doesn't think that delaying him any longer will help - pointed out that he's so unbelievably talented that he hasn't been forced to make adjustments yet, but that the level of talent he'll face at Gwinnett isn't likely to help with that. He believes that he's going to have to be in Atlanta before he sees anyone he's not going to just beat with talent.