How many Lefties is too many?

Question that I have been thinking about as I ponder for spring training. How many Lefty starters is too many in a rotation?

Over the past couple years (prior to last year), Atlanta was devoid of Left handed starters. Many added that this fact put them at a disadvantage for a few reasons (from game to game as well as aligning with opponent strengths).

Well it is possible this year that the rotation changes.

Teheran - RHP - could do well, could be traded if the right deal arrives
Folty - RHP - could make the next step, could become a good #2-#3
McCarthy - RHP - probably ok, likely traded at deadline
Newcomb - LHP - Could take the next step and be at least as good as Folty was last year
Gohara - LHP - Could prove to be just as effective as last year (with better luck) and a good #2-#3
Fried - LHP - Could prove that blisters was his issue and he is capable MOR guy
Allard - LHP - Could show he really overcame issues mid-year last year, and prove he is ready

So it is entirely feasible that with a trade of Teheran & McCarthy by the deadline, our starting rotation could be Gohara, Folty, Newcomb, Fried, Allard (LHP, RHP, LHP,LHP,LHP).

WOW what a difference...but is that too lefty focused. What are the advantages / disadvantages of so many south paws?

Have always subscribed to the theory that "it doesn't matter what hand they throw with as long as they get people out" when it comes to starters.

I like variety in the pen when you get to late-game situations, but having 4 left-handed starters in a rotation isn't any different than having 4 right-handed starters as far as I'm concerned.

I fully expect Soroka to hit the rotation by July to replace Mcarthy if/when he’s dealt (health)

I’d also like to see Fried in AAA to start the season

If we start with what we have on the roster I like:

Atlanta - Teheran, McCarthy, Folty, Newcomb, Gohara
AAA - Fried, Soroka, Allard, Wright, Sims (prove you belong young men)

I know it won't happen since you have to fill out a AA, A+ , A rotation as well..but I like competition.

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Originally Posted by clvclv

Have always subscribed to the theory that "it doesn't matter what hand they throw with as long as they get people out" when it comes to starters.

I like variety in the pen when you get to late-game situations, but having 4 left-handed starters in a rotation isn't any different than having 4 right-handed starters as far as I'm concerned.

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The other angle is you want guys with somewhat different styles/approaches irrespective of what arm they throw with. That may be less relevant in an era when the big fastball reigns supreme, but it can be advantageous if you follow a big fastball with a junkballer instead of another guy with a big fastball in your rotation. It's good to have a mix.

I'm not sure why Soroka and Wright were left out of the list, but that would be 5 RHers and 4 LHers. It is highly probably one or both of Newk/Fried will end up in the BP. The RHers, as a group, are far more likely to stick in the rotation.

I don't see an issue at all. The order of most likely to be in the 2019+ rotation is very RHed:

Gohara
Folty
Wright
Soroka
Teheran
Allard
Newcomb
Fried
Anderson

There are a lot of LHers, but the only ones likely to be in the rotation after this season are Gohara and Allard.

The Braves will still have a predominantly RHed rotation.

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Originally Posted by 50PoundHead

The other angle is you want guys with somewhat different styles/approaches irrespective of what arm they throw with. That may be less relevant in an era when the big fastball reigns supreme, but it can be advantageous if you follow a big fastball with a junkballer instead of another guy with a big fastball in your rotation. It's good to have a mix.

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More what I was getting at. Gohara's big fastball followed by Newcomb's big hook followed by Folty's big fastball followed by Fried's big hook, etc.. I think the different release points/arm angles/etc. will help take care of a lot of that.

I think there's very little chance we see 4 lefties in the rotation to begin with even if Julio and McCarthy get moved anyway. Soroka's ahead of Allard developmentally, and Wright's likely right behind them. JMO, but if that situation ever does come to fruition - one of Newcomb or Fried will be moved before Folty would so you'd be looking at he and Soroka at the very least with Wright hot on Soroka's heels. I'm going to be really interested to see if AA's willing to push Anderson as aggressively this year as the prior regime pushed Soroka and Allard - if he does, things could start getting real complicated real fast in 2019/2020.

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Originally Posted by clvclv

I'm going to be really interested to see if AA's willing to push Anderson as aggressively this year as the prior regime pushed Soroka and Allard - if he does, things could start getting real complicated real fast in 2019/2020.

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Which is what starts all the debates about trading and/or letting grow and/or free agents....

Right now, competing for the 2019 rotation - Teheran, Folty, Gohara, Newcomb, Fried, Wright, Allard, Soroka, Weigel (that is 9 possibilities) - (maybe Newcomb & Fried head to BP) (maybe you force Weigel to wait 1/2 season)
Right now, competing for the 2020 rotation - Teheran, Folty, Gohara, Newcomb, Fried, Wright, Allard, Soroka, Weigel, Touki, Anderson, Wentz, Wilson (that is 13) - (maybe you add Touki to BP) (make Wentz & Wilson wait 1/2 season)

So when to trade away, dump, etc. Now...midyear (Teams don't typically trade away prospects during season if they themselves aren't in the race.)...next off season?

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Originally Posted by bravesguy

Which is what starts all the debates about trading and/or letting grow and/or free agents....

Right now, competing for the 2019 rotation - Teheran, Folty, Gohara, Newcomb, Fried, Wright, Allard, Soroka, Weigel (that is 9 possibilities) - (maybe Newcomb & Fried head to BP) (maybe you force Weigel to wait 1/2 season)
Right now, competing for the 2020 rotation - Teheran, Folty, Gohara, Newcomb, Fried, Wright, Allard, Soroka, Weigel, Touki, Anderson, Wentz, Wilson (that is 13) - (maybe you add Touki to BP) (make Wentz & Wilson wait 1/2 season)

So when to trade away, dump, etc. Now...midyear (Teams don't typically trade away prospects during season if they themselves aren't in the race.)...next off season?

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This is the most pozzy pitching prospect post I've ever seen.

tehteh would be proud!!

I think it's more important to split up guys who look similar and have similar stuff in the rotation to keep opposing batting lineups from getting too comfortable on the second day.

For instance Strasburg would probably benefit considerably if the Gnats had a good lefty to slot between him and Scherzer even though their stuff isn't exactly the same.

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Originally Posted by bravesguy

If we start with what we have on the roster I like:

Atlanta - Teheran, McCarthy, Folty, Newcomb, Gohara
AAA - Fried, Soroka, Allard, Wright, Sims (prove you belong young men)

I know it won't happen since you have to fill out a AA, A+ , A rotation as well..but I like competition.

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I would buy a lot of tickets to see games in Gwinnett.

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Originally Posted by Enscheff

This is the most pozzy pitching prospect post I've ever seen.

tehteh would be proud!!

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I agree...but right now is the best (and maybe only) time to be a pozzy.

You can look at probabilities, you can watch trade rumors, you can just sit back and wait....but you must do something.

I don't agree with a lot of what the FO does, but what do I know, I am a fan. I think that the braves should make moves this off-season. Nothing will ever be better than this year (well ever is a strong word). There are only a few times when almost every team is saving their money. Ususally there are a few big spenders who you have to (and likely can't) compete with. LAD, NYY, CHC, HOU to name a few are pretty much sitting it out until next off season. At the same time a few teams are in or about to be in a rebuild. And everyone is looking at next off season. That makes a slow off season....so strike.

Atlanta's pitching prospects have not YET proven to be unable to make it in the MLB. Gohara, Newcomb, Fried, Soroka, Allard, Wright, Touki, Weigel, Anderson, Wentz, Wilson, Davidson all COULD make it. If you don't trade them now, you only have three options...1) wait until they completely develop (problem listed in possy post) (if so, they would have tremendous value)...2) Wait until they fail to develop (Wisler, Blair, Beachy, etc) when they will have no value at all...3) Pick a time when they still have potential, show that potential, and deal them for someone who fills out your team.

I pick 3...and right now is the time...
- Trade for Yelich (reasonable trade of course)
or
- If you can't get reasonable trade, then sign JD
- If Mil is really possibly going to trade Shaw...trade for Shaw.

If you have 4+ years of control on everyone of your position players (minus Flowers who could be here for 4 years) with several high potentials coming (Pache, Riley, Waters, Jackson) then you are no longer rebuilding...you are growing.

Here is to hoping some pitcher develop (but with 13 possible, maybe...just maybe 3 will)

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Originally Posted by bravesguy

Nothing will ever be better than this year (well ever is a strong word). There are only a few times when almost every team is saving their money.

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I agree 100% with this statement, and I wouldn’t be afraid to use the word “ever”. This indisputable fact is why a team like the Twins has a legit chance to reel in a SP like Darvish.

However, I don’t think JDM is the move for the Braves to make. Due to well founded defensive concerns, he is already being courted as a 1B/DH, neither of which is an option for the Braves.

I could get on board with a Yelich acquisition, even if it means giving up a painful package that includes Wright and Soroka. It wouldn’t be my preference, but I can at least see the rationale of converting volatile pitching assets into a valuable position player.

The type of move I would be in favor of this offseason would be signing someone like Mous, Cain or Frazier if their markets completely tank.

Historically, what is the most lefty, successful, starting rotation that you can think of.

I have no idea.

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Originally Posted by Southcack77

Historically, what is the most lefty, successful, starting rotation that you can think of.

I have no idea.

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Well, define successful? If you wanna count what the Dodgers have done as successful, they have been extremely lefty heavy the past few years

Over the last 3 season, the NL has posted wRC+ values of...

vs LHP: 91, 94, 92, average of 92.3
vs RHP: 95, 94, 94, average of 94.3

The same platoon split does not hold for the AL, likely due to the flexibility the DH allows in lineup construction.

As usual, the Dodgers are likely LHed heavy in their rotation by design.

I know we are not counting on him, but is Scott Kazmir a possibility as another lefty at all? I haven't heard anything about him or his progress coming back.

I think it’s unlikely Tehran or folty is a long term piece if both pitch well.