Originally Posted by
Enscheff
I know this is going to make the pozzy-Barves throw a tantrum, but both guys are benefiting from insanely high HR/FB rates.
Freeman: 33.3%
Adams: 26.5%
MLB average hovers around 10%-11% season to season. The absolute elite power guys like Sano and Stanton hover around the 23%-25% range.
Freeman typically runs excellent HR/FB rates of 14%-15%, and Adams can also be expected to have a good rate of ~13%. But both players are running rates about 2x of what should be considered sustainable for them (though we could argue up to ~20% being legit for Freeman, which is Trout territory).
Cutting Adams' HR/FB rate in half gives him 5 HRs as a Brave (we will round up). When that HR/FB rate normalizes, he will be exactly the same sub-800 OPS guy he has always been. Other FOs in the game see this, and won't be fooled into thinking Adams is suddenly a .900+ OPS monster offensive force.
Remember when everyone was pimping how great Suzuki was hitting? Remember when I said he was benefiting from an unsustainable HR/FB rates? Well, those rates normalized, and Suzuki is right back to being what he has always been.
Queue the tantrums, I'm sorry.