just some conversation for today

[bravesfanMatt]

So I just got back from Disney and seeing a few spring games. really fun times.

But got to looking around to see how other teams were doing and seeing what other players we discussed this offseason have done.

One big trade we all talked about was Soler/Baez for JT/Ender.. there were many variations on this trade so I know it wasn't a 2 for 2 swap. But Ender and JT are having a pretty good spring.. and Soler and Baez are not.. I mean they are NOT having a good spring. Baez is hitting .200 in 20 ABs and Soler is hitting .059 in 17 ABs.. Both have a 35% K rate as well.
Ender in 25ABs is hitting .400 with a .983 OPS and only 2 Ks.. He is also hitting .333 vs Lefties.. JT is looking pretty solid as well.. only 7 innings.. so pretty small sample.

I know it is really early still... but my initial thoughts is I am glad we didn't make that trade.. If spring numbers continue to trend the way they are now. Soler and Baez are going to have a depreciated value.. It will be interesting to see if the Cubs just decide to stick Soler in AAA and play Flower and Heyward.

Also.. really good to see Beachy pitching well.. The Dodger staff is a mess.. Kershaw is Kershaw. and Maeda has looked good thus far.. but Kazmir has been Kyle Kendrick bad and Wood is now a huge ?.. Keep an eye on them.. they may become desperate for a starter much sooner than the deadline..

anyway.. figured I would start up some more dialect. Keep things moving for the next half month..

[nsacpi]

We should have flipped Kendrick to the Dodgers!

[bravesfanMatt]

I guess on the other side as well... Simmons has looked ~ok at the plate thus far and with Newcomb struggles..but Aybar has been really strong and maybe is positioning himself to be a great trade piece.. Ellis.. not bad.. needs some more time to judge..

[yeezus]

I see Baez really, really struggling to ever hit with how much he strikes out. I didn't want him at all. Soler would be worth taking a flyer on to me, but not for Teheran or Inciarte.

[zitothebrave]

I see Baez really, really struggling to ever hit with how much he strikes out. I didn't want him at all. Soler would be worth taking a flyer on to me, but not for Teheran or Inciarte.

I'd trad eTeheran for both of them. If the Cubs laugh then **** them. Both are high risk prospects. Baez and Soler are former top prospects, as is Julio. Difference is proof in major leagues and guaranteed cost control. Julio has performed at a very high level in the majors.

2 years ago Baez had a ton of value. Having barely played last year in the bigs, and struggling in his debut season his stock isn't high and he's getting older.

So when I look at the total package and value.

Soler and Julio have the same basic FA time, though if Julio bombs out 2020 is an option year, so there's potential savings there. Julio is an All-Star, he's right around the same age as Soler and Baez (24 and 23 vs 25) Julio has proven major league success these guys haven't.

Baez strikes out too much, and he doesn't walk. Soler strikes out less but still a lot and doesn't walk.

ZIPS projections on Baez have him an averagish hitter, SOler an above average hitter, ZIPS has Julio doing quite well.

If they want a reliever in return as well I'd include that. But honestly, I have no desire to trade Julio and another heavy piece for those 2, I like SOler, Baez has a ton of raw ability but his K rate is super alarming, If I'm trading Julio and Ender I want SOler, Torres, Happ, and Contreras and I still may say no.

[yeezus]

I'd trad eTeheran for both of them. If the Cubs laugh then **** them. Both are high risk prospects. Baez and Soler are former top prospects, as is Julio. Difference is proof in major leagues and guaranteed cost control. Julio has performed at a very high level in the majors.

2 years ago Baez had a ton of value. Having barely played last year in the bigs, and struggling in his debut season his stock isn't high and he's getting older.

So when I look at the total package and value.

Soler and Julio have the same basic FA time, though if Julio bombs out 2020 is an option year, so there's potential savings there. Julio is an All-Star, he's right around the same age as Soler and Baez (24 and 23 vs 25) Julio has proven major league success these guys haven't.

Baez strikes out too much, and he doesn't walk. Soler strikes out less but still a lot and doesn't walk.

ZIPS projections on Baez have him an averagish hitter, SOler an above average hitter, ZIPS has Julio doing quite well.

If they want a reliever in return as well I'd include that. But honestly, I have no desire to trade Julio and another heavy piece for those 2, I like SOler, Baez has a ton of raw ability but his K rate is super alarming, If I'm trading Julio and Ender I want SOler, Torres, Happ, and Contreras and I still may say no.

zips seems too bullish on Baez. He could very easily K more than 28.9% of the time. His BABIP was ridiculously high in his SSS of success last year. I don't see him putting the bat on the ball enough to hit 22 homers. I'll be surprised if he produces that way with the bat.

Soler had a .360 BABIP and only hit .261. That's extremely scary, to me. And he's not even a good defender.

[bravesfanMatt]

I would be careful just tossing JT at any trade. He is looking like he might have a monster first half. I have been all for trading him.. but I am more inclined to wait until July and see what we have. He could be worth keeping if he throws the way he is capable.. but he may also fetch a ridiculous haul if traded.. Soler and Baez would have to prove more before I give JT for even both of them.. Baez value is really depressed.. and Soler is still up a bit because of his playoff run..

[zbhargrove]

Yah, at this point I'd wait on trading Teheran, if at all. If he rounds into form and has a great year, his trade value would sky rocket. On the same token, with his contract, if he rounds into form... we should probably just keep him considering our lack of proven MLB starters... especially in the top tier.

[zitothebrave]

Yah, at this point I'd wait on trading Teheran, if at all. If he rounds into form and has a great year, his trade value would sky rocket. On the same token, with his contract, if he rounds into form... we should probably just keep him considering our lack of proven MLB starters... especially in the top tier.

You trade Julio on his value before last season. If a team tries to lowball you because he struggled, walk away from the table. He should be valued similar to last offseason but a tinge lower because of one year of lost team control. But if a team makes the right offer we should let him go.

Let's say Chicago, Baltimore and the Braves work out a 3 way deal

Markakis goes to Baltimore with some cash from Chicago
Julio, Johnson and Grilli go to Chicago
we get Baez, Soler, and Bundy

Why it works for Baltimore

They want Markakis but seemingly balk at the prospect of giving up someone and taking all of his salary. Here they give up someone, but take on only part of his salary.

Why it works for Chicago. They take home 2 MLB ready talents now. Their biggest weaknesses from what I can see are they need one more SP (maybe 2 to be safe but one for sure) and their pen is weak. They're trading 2 guys who're not starters (Soler will get the most PT in LF spelling Schwarber when he goes to C) and some cash assets.

Why it works for the Braves. Shed 11M in Markakis salary and take on 3 promising but flawed players you can give a shot to. Baez can start at 2B or 3B, Soler in RF, and Bundy in the pen or rotation. Our risk is the trading off of Julio, which to me is minimal.

Of course this trade hinges on Chicago liking Julio enough to give up 2 players and cash for him and some relievers

[rico43]

I believe Copo's eventual legacy will be the trades he doesn't make right alongside those he does. Kinda hope the one above is a no-go.

[UNCBlue012]

I wouldn't trade Julio. Not yet at least. His second half last year was awesome, his last month plus was incredible. He's OUR ace, let him show he's an ace. If he succeeds, we can either keep him and let him anchor or we can trade him for a huge haul.

I keep him, personally.

But it depends what we could get back. I absolutely make the trade if we get anything close to the return for Shelby though.

[Tapate50]

I wouldn't trade Julio. Not yet at least. His second half last year was awesome, his last month plus was incredible. He's OUR ace, let him show he's an ace. If he succeeds, we can either keep him and let him anchor or we can trade him for a huge haul.

I keep him, personally.

But it depends what we could get back. I absolutely make the trade if we get anything close to the return for Shelby though.

Pretty much where I am on this. Thanks for posting.

[Enscheff]

I wouldn't trade Julio. Not yet at least. His second half last year was awesome, his last month plus was incredible. He's OUR ace, let him show he's an ace. If he succeeds, we can either keep him and let him anchor or we can trade him for a huge haul.

I keep him, personally.

But it depends what we could get back. I absolutely make the trade if we get anything close to the return for Shelby though.

Shelby was sold at his absolute peak value, and I was clamoring for him to be traded the entire off season. Wren's biggest failure for a mid-market team was failing to sell high on pitchers like JJ, Medlen, Minor and Hanson before they broke down or got super expensive. Coppy did exactly what a mid-market team needs to do...sell assets at peak value before they get prohibitively expensive. He will soon be able to start plugging cheap young players in place of the guys he traded away, and the cycle perfected by the Rays can be implemented in Atlanta.

JT's value is a bit depressed right now, and he is controlled through 2020 at a very reasonable rate. At some point it will probably make sense to sell high on him (likely around the 2018 offseason when he has 2 years of control left), but there is no reason to sell low on him now.

[Tapate50]

Shelby was sold at his absolute peak value, and I was clamoring for him to be traded the entire off season. Wren's biggest failure for a mid-market team was failing to sell high on pitchers like JJ, Medlen, Minor and Hanson before they broke down or got super expensive. Coppy did exactly what a mid-market team needs to do...sell assets at peak value before they get prohibitively expensive. He will soon be able to start plugging cheap young players in place of the guys he traded away, and the cycle perfected by the Rays can be implemented in Atlanta.
JT's value is a bit depressed right now, and he is controlled through 2020 at a very reasonable rate. At some point it will probably make sense to sell high on him (likely around the 2018 offseason when he has 2 years of control left), but there is no reason to sell low on him now.

This coupled with more money to spend to fill holes is a solid plan, IMO.

[The Chosen One]

I wouldn't trade Julio. Not yet at least.

Says the guy with the Teheran avatar.

[UNCBlue012]

Says the guy with the Teheran avatar.

Hey, I'm a big fan! It was Mike Minor beforehand, so take it as you see it.

[Tapate50]

Hey, I'm a big fan! It was Mike Minor beforehand, so take it as you see it.

So he is suddenly going to become very pedestrian and then have a shoulder injury. GREAT.

[zitothebrave]

Shelby was sold at his absolute peak value, and I was clamoring for him to be traded the entire off season. Wren's biggest failure for a mid-market team was failing to sell high on pitchers like JJ, Medlen, Minor and Hanson before they broke down or got super expensive. Coppy did exactly what a mid-market team needs to do...sell assets at peak value before they get prohibitively expensive. He will soon be able to start plugging cheap young players in place of the guys he traded away, and the cycle perfected by the Rays can be implemented in Atlanta.

JT's value is a bit depressed right now, and he is controlled through 2020 at a very reasonable rate. At some point it will probably make sense to sell high on him (likely around the 2018 offseason when he has 2 years of control left), but there is no reason to sell low on him now.

Coppy also had the luxury of not having a competitive team. Braves revenues last year dropped significantly vs 2014, and that's with a better TV deal. If we were a playoff or borderline playoff team we wouldn't have dealt Shelby. Even with the great return we got back. Being a bad team it's easy to make that move. THe Rays held onto players as long as possible or used players to fill another role. See Shields. They didn't trade Shields at peak value, they would have traded him a year earlies if they did that. THey were into trading players, but usually in their last year or 2 of team control. Julio, Medlen, Minor and Hanson were all hurt well before that point.

[UNCBlue012]

So he is suddenly going to become very pedestrian and then have a shoulder injury. GREAT.

This would be very unfortunate for all of us.

[Enscheff]

Coppy also had the luxury of not having a competitive team. Braves revenues last year dropped significantly vs 2014, and that's with a better TV deal. If we were a playoff or borderline playoff team we wouldn't have dealt Shelby. Even with the great return we got back. Being a bad team it's easy to make that move. THe Rays held onto players as long as possible or used players to fill another role. See Shields. They didn't trade Shields at peak value, they would have traded him a year earlies if they did that. THey were into trading players, but usually in their last year or 2 of team control. Julio, Medlen, Minor and Hanson were all hurt well before that point.

If the Braves had a Newcomb or Sims or Allard sitting in AAA ready to go, yes they would have. Or at least they should have. A contending team can most certainly trade away key members of the team when they only have a couple years of control left if they have young talent to replace them. The only way to consistently have young talent to replace those key members is to continually trade away those good players before losing them to FA or injury.

Wren was forced to keep and build around guys like Hanson, Medlen and JJ because he didn't have money to replace them, nor did he have young studs to replace them. Everyone KNEW Hanson was a ticking time bomb, and everyone KNEW Medlen and JJ were walking the fine edge of being good MLB pitchers based on limited stuff (or at least everyone not spouting nonsense about control, changing speeds, inducing weak contact, and "just knowing how to pitch").

A team with the budget constraints of the Braves should be selling away players the moment they get expensive and have a high trade value, especially pitchers since they tend to get hurt so often. Ride a guy like Teheran until he has 2-3 years of control left, then trade him before he gets hurt. Do that often enough and there will always be a Blair or Newcomb or Sims or Allard ready to take his place. If you ever find yourself in a position where such a young player doesn't exist, make the trade anyways and sign a short term FA. There will always be a Lackey or Fowler available for a 1-2 year deal if you need to fill a spot or 2 on your roster.